In this market‑update video, The Art of Crypto explains why Bitcoin is likely to enter a further downtrend in early 2024. He starts by reiterating his earlier thesis that after a confirmed change of character a market can either retrace a dump or sweep liquidity before the dump. He illustrates the pattern with last year’s high‑volatility‑to‑low‑volatility swing and shows that Bitcoin has just performed a liquidity sweep, setting up a bearish move. The catalyst for the recent dip is identified as a hedge‑fund report that the BlackRock spot‑ETF will not be approved on Jan 10, which the host argues is used by market makers to lure retail traders into buying high and selling low. He then introduces his “3‑month cycle” framework, arguing that macro moves typically unfold over three‑month intervals, and maps past Bitcoin cycles (2020‑2021) onto the current price action. Using this framework he forecasts a retracement to a minimum of $35 k, ideally $30‑33 k, before the next bull phase that should be triggered by the 2024 halving. He advises traders to wait 2‑3 months after the sweep before buying dips, to use liquidity‑sweep entries, and to avoid trying to pick tops or bottoms. He supports his points with examples from altcoins (ADA, SOL, BNB) where entering late in a trend still yielded large gains. Throughout he promotes his newsletter for deeper trading tips and ends with a standard sign‑off.
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What's up everybody, welcome back to another market update and welcome to a new year. Now Bitcoin has done some very interesting things since the last time that I recorded the video, but so far it's still following the plan where I'm saying that after you get the confirmed change of character, there are only 2 things that can happen. One is you either retrace dump, second is you sweep liquidity before dump. And the second thing that I mentioned in the previous videos, I've been saying this for over a month now, is that markets always move from periods of high volatility into low volatility, meaning once you this high volatility move here, you calm down a little. High volatility and back to low volatility. In fact, one of the best examples I can show you is actually from before, from last year. It feels weird saying that, but last year we got period of high volatility. You went all the way to range high. I'm sure you guys all remember this. But then right after that, a lot of people got really impatient here and they lost a lot of money getting chopped up here because markets move from high to low volatility and Just look at this exact setup here where you get a range and then that range gets swept over there. That's your liquidity sweep right there before the ultimate move towards the downside. At the moment, Bitcoin does remind you something like that where you have a range, you have your change of character, and right now you just got the liquidity sweep that will lead you lower. And it's the start of the new year. This is all lining up perfectly with the news. In fact, for those of you who don't know what caused this dump, it was actually from a report that came out from a hedge fund saying that the BlackRock ETF was not going to be approved this January 10th. And come on, let's be real here, based on what I've been saying for the last month, I sort of had that expectation already. This is just not the market maker's forte. This is not how they like to operate. They like to give you that news in order to trick retail traders and dumb money into buying Bitcoin at the high so that they can sell to them. So essentially retail will be buying high and selling low, and the market makers will be selling high and buying low. And that is the ultimate objective for the market makers, at least in Q1, I believe. One of the concepts that talked about in a recent email of mine is the concept known as a 3-month cycle. And by the way, shameless plug, I share so much value in the newsletter that you are missing out if you're not subscribed. Literally, I'm giving you really detailed trading tips that you can apply right away that'll improve your trading immediately. If you want in, there's a link in the description box below. Sign up. But otherwise, back to the video. The concept of 3-month cycles is that macro moves tend to take 3 months to play out. And we can just look at Bitcoin, for example, where if we just look from the start of the 2020 cycle, This move here— in fact, let me go on to the weekly chart, this will make much more sense— took about 3 months to get from bottom to top, and then a little bit of a, you know, a little bit of a range. This would have also took about 2 months-ish. Nope, actually 3 months. Actually 3 months of range before the move continues again. And in this case, we can move this shorter to about 6 months. So 3-month cycles means that most moves from top to bottom tends to happen in 3-month cycles, as the name suggests. What is 3-month cycles? Essentially 3, 6, 9, 12 months. And over here you have 3 and a half months. Over here you have 3 months. Over here you have 6 months to get from bottom to top. And then from the bottom you go from 6 months of pump before 3 months, exactly 90 days of a down move, and then back up again. That's 4 months. So that's just 1 extra month compared to 3. And then from top to bottom it's almost 3 months again. And then this area here, this area here is about 2 months. 7 months from top to bottom. 5 months from bottom to top. Another 5-month range. And then so far you This pump has been going on for about 4 months. 4 months is usually how long it goes for. I don't expect this to go on for a 5th month considering the fact that the BlackRock ETF news is so close. This is a really good catalyst for the market makers to use in order to manipulate people into taking just bad trades. Lining up with everything, all the information so far, what I think is going to happen is, well, firstly, this is the liquidity sweep here. That if there is one high probability setup, it's liquidity sweeps. One of the things that will help you immensely with your trading is understanding that large expansions in price always follows a sweep counterparty liquidity. I know that is quite the mouthful, but all it simply means is that if you're expecting the markets to go down, what you want to look for is for buy-side liquidity to get swept prior to the expansion. And then once you swept this range high over here, the candle bodies, you get a large expansion in price back towards the downside, back to those candle body lows. This is how the markets like to move, and currently you've just swept range high. So if you were bearish, this is actually one of the best times to get in because there is a second reason why liquidity sweeps make the best entries. Because once the liquidity has been swept, if you are bearish, it means that you are not expecting the price to come all the way back up here, because you simply believe that there is no reason for the market makers to want to bring the price back up, because there's nothing left for them already. Everyone that had their stop losses placed above this area has already gotten stopped, and the market makers will have likely already positioned themselves in this position, ready to bring the markets lower. And so if you run with that thesis, it means that number one, if Your hypothesis is correct. This is just gonna go down. And if you are wrong, well, the odds were stacked in your favor because you were able to define a very clear narrative. You were able to tell a really clear story about why this would be the top. And in this case, that is what I think, at least for the next quarter or so. So here's how you can use this information. Number 1, where do I think the bottom is going to come in around? I think that it's going to go to a minimum of $35K over the next 3 months, but ideally I want to see it go towards the $30K to $33K level. And this price here, where the bull market will kickstart again in the start Q2, and this just so happens to line up with the Bitcoin halving. For those of you who don't know what a Bitcoin halving is, it's basically every 4 years where the reward for mining Bitcoin halves. And all you need to know is that this reduces supply, and as long as demand remains the same, Bitcoin price is going to pump. This is why in every single bull market in the past, the Bitcoin halving has been a huge catalyst for kickstarting those bull markets. For example, close to March 2020 was actually when the Bitcoin halving was about to begin. In fact, it began Roughly in around May. And once it did, just look at what the markets did right after. And so if we line this up with the information that stuff tends to happen in quarters, meaning 3 months, 3 months of retracement, that will be the low. You'll retrace into the 0.705 here. Perhaps you go back to the true yearly open with just a quick wick downwards, but ideally $31K, and then that kickstarts the bull market. You're gonna get some kind of a formation just like back in 2020. And so this leads me on to the second way that you can utilize this information shared in this video, which is to understand that If the retracement is going to take about 3 months, you don't want to be buying the dip too early, or at least you don't want to be buying the dip until it gets to around these prices. One thing that a lot of beginners do, and I'm going to assume that a lot of you watching this video are beginners because right now the market is kind of euphoric. Everyone's jumping into the markets right now. If you're new here, hello, you're in the right place. But something that beginners do struggle with is timing when to start buying dip. It is true that in order to profit, in order to make generational wealth from a bull market, you need to buy dips. But how? It's easier said than done. What is the right time to do it? And now that you understand 3-month cycles, you can have a very good gauge. Like, maybe just don't start buying anything until at least 2 to 3 months have passed. And if 2 to 3 months has passed and Bitcoin is sitting at around these prices, then you know that that is likely to be a good trade and a good investment. You can also start timing your altcoin investments with this timing period and also with this price area. And remember, There's no such thing as being too late into a move. Another thing that you will find it tough to get out of your head is the need to buy bottoms and the need to short tops. You do not need to catch tops and bottoms in order to make money in a bull market. In fact, most of my money made in the last bull market was made by jumping into pre-existing trends. For example, on ADA, you can see how high this thing went. But last time, if you were in the last bull market, you would have remembered that sometime between March to about Like July or August of 2020. In fact, even until the end of the year, the amount of people that were standing behind ADA and the amount of content that was produced on ADA was ridiculous. If you were in the markets at the time, it would have felt really late to, for example, buy in at this price here, maybe at 10— like 1 cent. Sorry, this is 10 cents. And that is exactly the price that I bought in at on the way up. Sure, it did retrace, but just because like you're already late in terms of the bottom, for example, At ten cents, it's already five x'd from the bottom. From ten cents, Ada actually went way, way, way higher than ten cents. Or even just look at our favorite Bitcoin, for example. What if you felt that? Oh no! If price broke the previous all-time high, then it needs to start coming down. Well, no. As long as bull market is there, it's just going to keep going up, and that's how bull markets work. Remember that the markets are irrational, and you don't want to try to apply logic into a bull market. Just because something is high in price doesn't mean that the uptrend is over. In fact, we can also look at Solana. This was. Also one of my other big moneymakers. In fact, we can also look at BNB. BNB was one of my other big, big moneymakers from last year. I made most of my purchases around this area here between $10 and $20. And I remember even buying at $30, which at the time seemed ridiculously high because from the bottom of like $6 or like $5, you were at $30, which is insane. Just because something is quote unquote high in price, that is just what you think. That might not be what the market thinks. And that is definitely not how it works in the bull market. Jumping into pre-existing trends already, like BNB was my largest bag from the last bull market and it did incredibly well. Was I too late? Yes. But did I still make a ton of money? Yes. So, so just remember that top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers. You're trying to make generational wealth in a bull market. You're not trying to become a cotton picker. So do not feel the need to buy bottoms and to buy tops. There's never such a thing as being too late to a move, especially now that you understand that things happen in about 3-month periods. So coming back to Bitcoin, I do think that price is going to continue to go down. This is just the start. And if it doesn't, then well, it's a high probability idea that didn't play out. But either way, the odds were in our favor when we came up with this idea. So if you are looking to get into the bull market, or if you're looking to invest into altcoins, what I would suggest doing is waiting a minimum of like 2 to 3 months, at least until we get close to the halving. Because the halving is when things is going to really begin. And prior to the halving, there's a really good chance that market's just going to start going down and making people feel— and this is something else on just market psychology in general— they're going to price the markets in a way that's going to make people feel a lot of fear and uncertainty when we get closer to the halving, thinking that the bull market is over and it's just going to go to zero. It is exactly at that point where you are going to want to buy. And using the information that you have gained in this video, I believe that you are well more than equipped to take advantage of that situation when it arises. And with that said, make sure you join the email list. There are so many tips And so much value that's being shared in that email list. You are missing out if you're not on there. But otherwise, trade safe. May the gains be with you, and I wish you the best of luck in 2024. Let's make it great.
