In this video, Xuan, the host of The Art of Crypto, delivers a cautious Bitcoin trade outlook for the day. He opens by establishing his credibility, noting a 75% win rate over roughly 200 publicly documented trades. He reviews the weekly market narrative: a bearish higher‑time‑frame structure and order flow, and a fair‑value‑gap (FVG) that was correctly identified last week, leading to a short trade. Given the bearish weekly bias, he expects the week’s high to have already occurred, targeting short positions around $60,700 and $59,000. Xuan emphasizes that his approach relies on liquidity concepts and PO3 (price, order flow, and order book) rather than claiming a perfect market model. He then drills down to the daily and 1‑hour charts, noting that today lacks any major USD news (no red‑folder events on Forex Factory), which reduces the market’s impetus to move aggressively. Consequently, he advises extra caution: waiting for a 1‑hour candle to close below the critical supply‑demand (CSD) level at $62,600 before considering a short, and halving position size compared to his usual risk. He explains the significance of relatively equal highs/lows as magnetic price zones that often act as temporary resistance. Time‑based “kill zones” are highlighted as high‑probability windows: the Asia kill zone (8 PM–12 AM), London kill zone (2 AM–5 AM), and New York kill zone (7 AM–10 AM). Xuan stresses that aligning price action with these time windows improves trade odds. Given today’s non‑news environment, he predicts a likely no‑trade day for Bitcoin, though he will still seek opportunities in other assets during a live trading session with his Bootcamp and Blueprint program. He invites viewers to follow his real‑time trade updates on X (Twitter) and to explore his system via a link in the description.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In today's video, I'm going to get into the best possible Bitcoin trade setup for today. And not going to lie, today is looking just as, if not a little bit more uncertain as compared to yesterday. But before we get into this video, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these daily trade calls on YouTube for the past year and a half, and I've been publicly documenting the success rate. So far, we're sitting at about a 75% win rate across 200 trades or so. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often Then I'm wrong. But with that out of the way, let's get into the video. Now, just to kick off this video, so far the weekly kind of like scenario that we painted out on Monday is playing out so far in terms of the fact that, okay, in terms of the overall higher time frame, we are incredibly bearish. Not only is market structure bearish, but we also have, uh, order flow being bearish as well. Now besides that, last week we came into this fair value gap over here, which by the way accurately called, and we ended up taking a short from that point onwards. That was perfecto. But this week, because of the bearish weekly bias, we're actually looking for shorts heading into this week. And because of that, we expected Monday/Tuesday to be somewhat of an update where, you know, Monday came into this bearish fair value gap over here, which means that this is very likely to be the high of the week already in. So for the rest of the week, I think we're just going to be looking for shorts targeting towards $60,700 and potentially $59,000. Now, this is not just kind of like some concept that I'm pulling out of thin air. This is the same concept that I've used to not only predict last week we're going to find the top of the week sometime between Monday and Tuesday, and then the rest of the week down, This is the same concept that I used to also, you know, understood the fair value gap. This is the same concept that I used to, for example, tell you guys that, hey, like, we are not going above this fair value gap. There's very high chance that we're going to go down towards the downside. Put, in fact, parents, feel free to put on the receipts of just the type of YouTube thumbnails that I was making back then, right? I was screaming at the top of my lungs for you guys to sell. Same thing back in, um, what was it, like November, December last year? Uh, no, actually January. This is the same concept that I used to kind of catch all of those moves. And in terms of what's going on this week, um, this is most likely going to be the high of the week. Now, I'm not saying that this, you know, concept is infallible, but so far, like, everything that we painted out, you know, since Monday— like, if there was someone who did not understand trading at all, and if he were to be watching my videos, he might think that I'm a bit of an oracle because it's not the first time that I've done this. Now, I'm not tooting my own horn here, but as long as you understand just liquidity, and if you understand PO3, it goes a really long way to showing you the true kind of like movements Or like the underlying mechanisms of like the market. Don't get me wrong when I say that. I do not claim to understand how the market works. It's just that I've seen this play out time and time again to the point where I would think this is a working kind of model. But with that out of the way though, in terms of the daily chart, right, just because we have a bearish bias does not mean that today is going to be the day where we can actually take advantage of this knowledge to make some money, right? This was the thing that I was alluding to at the start during the intro where, okay, let's like, let me just show you what I mean. If you go down into the 1-hourly chart, you will see that, okay, price has actually filled in this bearish And so this makes this line right here, the line that we want to see where price gets to CSD below, the line that we want to consider to enter into a trade towards the short side, right? And the thing that makes today not the best day, in my opinion, is for the fact that we do not have news today. Now, for those of you who don't understand what that means, if you go onto this website called Forex Factory, you will see that you can filter by the economic calendar. And this red folder news here for USD is the one that we want to be paying attention to. And today we do not have any such red folder USD news. The news. Now, the reason why this matters is because you need to understand the market always has a reason behind every movement. Now, oftentimes, if you're pumping, it means that you're going for some sort of a bearish. It means that you're going for some sort of a liquidity level. Sometimes it could be an inefficiency, like what we've seen here on this fair value gap. Sometimes it could be targeting a liquidity level. This is the same concept that I use to identify these daily targets that I think by the end of this week we are going to hit. So. That is, you know, the objective in terms of price action. And for most people, that tends to be the be-all end-all, which is the price action, right? Oh, where's price action gonna go? Or where's price gonna go? But what most people fail to realize is that on your chart, you have 2 axes. You have the Y-axis, which is the price action. A lot of people are already looking at that. But you also have the X-axis, which is time, which kind of dictates, right? When you have red for the news, means that everyone is looking at that piece of news and everyone is expecting something to happen. Now, we may not know if it's gonna go up or down, but we do know that something's very likely to happen at that time. And when you are operating in days where you do not have red folder news, what tends to happen is that the market can stall. It's exactly what happened yesterday because we do not have red folder news either. It means that the market does not have much of a reason to move aggressively. And it's also the reason why I told you guys yesterday, like, hey, with whatever trade that we're going to be entering, we're going to be very cautious. The 2 ways that we are going to be cautious is to A, wait for extra confirmations compared to a usual day, and B, whatever trades that we do take, we're going to go half risk instead of our usual amount of risk. This is to account for the fact that we are operating in slightly lower probability market conditions. And case in point, now that we look at this in retrospect, yes, ultimately price action gave us the confirmation that we needed, right? This is the CSD. And once the CSD happened, I posted a trade on Twitter, which by the way, if you guys would like to follow along with all of my trades, I post it all on Twitter. Like, it's not like data behind some signals groups or whatever. If I take a trade, I'm going to update it on Twitter. If I have an update to the trade that I took, I'm going to update it on Twitter. And so just understand that even though everything on price action lined up, the reason why it didn't play out Has to do a lot with the market conditions that we were operating in. And today is no different. We are dealing with a non-newsday, which means, A, we want to be more cautious. How do we be more cautious? We wait for confirmations. And the way— and the confirmation that we're going to look for today is going to be the CSD over here, right? We need to see a 1-hourly candle close beneath this level before we even consider it. And this level, by the way, to anyone who is watching from a small screen, is $62,600. If we do not see that candle close beneath this level, we are not going to be even considering getting into a trade. Now, B, even if we do consider getting into a trade, we are going to go half risk for the reason that we at the moment have relatively equal lows above— sorry, relatively equal highs above this level. And the reason why relatively equal highs matters is because a lot of people, and I mean like a lot of people, tend to look at relatively equal levels as like, oh, this is a strong resistance level, or this is a strong, uh, strong level, or whatever. But the key point here The reason why this matters to our like kind of like system is that relative equal highs and lows tends to be a magnet for price. Price tends to be attracted to these levels, sweep them out before moving in the other direction. If you've ever seen this happen before, this is likely why. And again, I don't claim to understand that this is the real way the markets move, or I don't claim to understand, oh, this is blah blah blah. It's simply I've seen this happen time and time again, enough times to where I can conclude that, hey, Even though I don't know anything about it, it is a working model. And for this reason, we are going to go half risk, plus the fact that we don't have news today. So at exactly what time should we be looking for this stuff? Well, between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM New York, which by the way, if you're not familiar with that, that is known as the New York kill zone. It's just like how if you go into the 5-minute chart right now, we are operating within the London kill zone, which is 2 AM to 5 AM, and the Asia kill zone is 8 PM to 12 AM. Now these are just simply high probability windows where most major market moves tend to happen throughout the day. And the reason why they're Like there are a lot of conclusions that you know people tend to draw when it comes to this. But just based on my understanding, the way I like to think about it is that these hours coincide with the major opening hours of the major market in the world. For example, 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. London is is a little bit before the London open markets. 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. New York is coincides with the opening hours of the London market. These hours in the Asia kill zone coincides with the major opening times of you know Hong Kong and Tokyo and even Sydney to a certain extent. Although Probably less. And of course, the New York kill zone starts a couple of hours before the New York market opens, and it lasts, you know, an hour into the actual New York market open. So these are just high probability times where there tends to be a little bit more volatility throughout the day. And so that's why we look at these kill zones. That's why we only take all of our trades within these kill zones. Remember what I talked about before? You have 2 axes on a chart. You don't just look at price action. The best trades are always when price action and time aligns. Just because, like in yesterday's case, was a perfect example of like, okay, in terms of price action, everything lined up. But because we were operating in a subpar kind of like time, which is subpar, you know, x-axis, it ended up lowering our chances of success. Same thing for today, and same thing if you ended up trading outside of, you know, these kill zones. So all in all, like, if I do jump into a trade for today, I'm definitely going to update it on X. But I'm going to say most likely today is going to be a no-trade day for me, at least on Bitcoin. Now I'm still going to be looking for trades on other assets, which I'm gonna do with the live trading call that I'm running with Bootcamp and Blueprint later. Which, by the way, if you enjoy my philosophy on the market and if you would like to tap into a system that works, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'm gonna see you in tomorrow's video and potentially later on X. Ciao, ciao.
