CRYPTO: This is How You Can Profit from Every Scenario

What's up everyone, welcome back to another weekly market update. Now as you can see, since the video from last week, nothing has really happened. Prices just stay within this range just like we predicted, because here's how the markets work. Fundamental rule number 1 of how the markets work is that the markets always move from periods of high volatility to low volatility, back into high volatility, and then low volatility. At the moment, it's not surprising that we are just forming a range here before the next move. But in this video, I will explain a couple of scenarios that I have in mind for Bitcoin and crypto in general as well that can be prepared if Bitcoin does tank or if Bitcoin does pump. You will be prepared to make money either way. We will also be looking at Ethereum, and then we will look at Polkadot for a little bit, and then we will look at AVAX for a little bit because that is what has been requested by the people on Twitter. If you haven't already followed me on Twitter, I will start posting a lot of educational content on Twitter and it's not something you want to miss. So follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto if you haven't, and let's dive into the video. So on Bitcoin, well, let's just say that my bias is still towards the downside for reasons that I've mentioned in the past video. The overview the 3 reasons is that number one, we are still in a phase of quantitative tightening. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has recently just came out and said that in order to curb inflation— because inflation is still going up— they are going to be continuing to raise the interest rates. And for those of you who don't know, interest rates basically dictate whether the markets are in a bullish state or they are in a bearish state. Pretty much every single Bitcoin bull run, or even just the stock market bull run, bear market, whatever, They can all be traced back to the time when the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates or they start raising interest rates. The reason for that is because the higher the interest rates, the lower the money supply. Money becomes expensive to borrow, so people don't really have much discretionary income in order to invest into assets. Hence, the price of assets don't really go up 'cause there's just not enough money. Until we get back into a state of quantitative easing, I do expect like any, like this entire pump here is just a bear market relief rally. Second one is going to be the Bitcoin halving cycle, which is going to be happening next year at around April. And historically speaking, at every Bitcoin halving, the bottom tends to come about 1 to 2 months before the Bitcoin halving. So with that in mind, it wouldn't be surprising if for the next few months up till say February or March of 2024, you just keep tanking and tanking and tanking and then finding a bottom maybe around February or March. And then, you know, that kickstarts the bull market. This also lines up with the third reason, which is the fact that the Federal Reserve has to announce that they are pausing rates, that they're cutting the rates. And that in itself is an event because historically speaking, if you look at every single market, when the Federal Reserve first cuts the interest rates, the markets actually tank. I know it's supposed to be bullish, but yet it goes down. Assuming that all of this stuff adds back to the beginning of next year where all of this stuff is expected to happen, well, let's just say that at the moment we have a lot of reasons to be bearish, but that is not to say that we cannot be bullish as well. And I will paint a bullish picture, but for now let me explain the bearish scenario. Basically, one of the only things that you need to keep in mind when it comes to, you know, the market Is that just because something is cheap doesn't mean that it cannot go lower. Just because Bitcoin has already tanked by about 20% from the high in about a little bit over a month does not mean that it cannot tank another, for example, 20% from that point onwards. That will put Bitcoin back at $20K. You've seen a bunch of altcoins do this, you know, like Bitcoin even back here, right? You dump by a lot, and yet you still dump by a lot, and yet one more time you still dump by a lot. So instead of trying to buy low and sell high, a much better mindset that will work in a bear market is to sell low and then buy even lower, right? So you continue shorting Bitcoin until it shows you a bottom, and then that's when you buy back even lower. And that would be my recommendation for the next few months moving forward, unless things start changing. You will definitely hear from me right here on YouTube. But for now, the plan for Bitcoin is very, very simple. It's just— you just want to short it. And as for how to short Bitcoin, let me give you a couple of examples. First of all is You want to take advantage of buy-side liquidity sweeps. What is that? Well, essentially, above every previous swing high is what you call buy-side liquidity. When the markets are forming lower highs and lower lows, this is a sell program. In a sell program, every buy-side liquidity sweep provides the market enough fuel to create new lows. Now I want you to see how aggressive, right? You take out the buy-side liquidity, immediately you form new lows. And most of the time, this effect tends to be even more exaggerated. For example, Over here, once you take out a buy side, right, form new lows. Once you take out a buy side, you form very, very, very new lows. So buy side liquidity sweeps, definitely one of them that you want to keep in mind. Second one is going to be order blocks. If you don't know what are order blocks, if you don't know what is buy side liquidity, and definitely if you don't know what are fair value gaps, I've actually released a free trading course about 3 weeks ago and people are already raving about the results that they are getting there. Basically, this free trading course just lays out everything that I know. Every time I talk about liquidity, you will learn how to see liquidity, you will learn how to think like a market maker, you will able to predict where price is going to go very consistently, just like how I am able to do. You will never find yourself being confused at the markets again and wondering why you are holding a bag when the market is still going down. Basically, all the stuff that I talk about with market structure, with liquidity, order blocks, fair value gap, you're going to be learning in the free trading course. Now, in order to maintain the quality, we are controlling the quantity. So if you are interested in the free trading course, again, no strings attached, it's completely free. Make sure you sign up to the waitlist in the link in the description box below. But anyways, let's dive back into it. Bearish order blocks are going to be the way that you want to go, buy side liquidity sweeps, and also the last one is going to be bearish fair value gaps. For example, right here you get a fair value gap and then you form a new low, for example. So I expect this to continue until at least Bitcoin hits like $20K because that is the next most significant liquidity level. Now alternatively, this is where we start getting into the bullish case. What if, right at the moment, there are only 2 bullish cases? One of them is the fact that we are in a range here and you have just swept the range lows. Now, the last time we swept the range highs, we came back to the range low. And the last time we swept the range low, we went to the range high. This is as simple as it gets, and hence range trading is some of the easiest trading that you can possibly do. Now, here's the thing you need to know. So when we look at just this range in particular, we've already swept the range low, so the chance of Bitcoin actually going back up— let's just say that it is not completely non-existent. But the second scenario is going to be similar to this one right here, where we go for a Sell side liquidity sweep that provides the market enough fuel in order to catapult it higher. So the way that that will look like is let's try to identify some liquidity levels. For example, that here is a liquidity level, and then over here you have a big fair value gap. If we were to draw a fib on the fair value gap, you can see that this is the 0.5. So right now we have two levels that we are playing with. Essentially, if Bitcoin were to retrace into any of these two levels and it were to show a sharp You know, just to change your direction, you know, let's say it starts forming high highs, high lows, then you can expect this move to catapult us up to $35K, just like how we predicted for a period of about 7 months. So again, that is bullish scenario number 2. Bullish scenario number 1 is that you have just swept the range low. I don't think this is very likely, like, for you to just sweep the range low and then start going up. What I think is more likely to happen is a setup something like that where you have sort of your initial range You sweep the highs, you come down to the low, and then you sweep even lower to fill in some imbalance before catapulting. Same thing here. You have your initial range, you sweep the high right now, you sweep a little bit lower, and then that is going to provide enough fuel to catapult higher. At the moment, these are the 2 scenarios that you want to look out for. Basically, all this amounts to is that until you reach either one of these 2 levels, keep shorting it until it reaches there. Once it hits these 2 levels, then you start to monitor the markets, right? You do not pull the trigger immediately. You start to monitor the markets for signs of bullishness, and if you get it, then you start flipping bullish. If not, you continue to short this until $20K. And if you are at this point right here, only thing I would consider doing is shorting. I wouldn't necessarily long this. Even if you were to long this, you want to look for this fair value gap to take profit on. Which fair value gap am I referring to? This one. And if I were to draw a fib on this fair value gap, then this is a key level that you want to watch, which is right here at about $27,700. If price were to return back to this area, this is an area where you want to look to sell. But until then, expect be in a range until otherwise proven. And yeah, like, if you want to long, I would do it here. If you want to short, that's the only thing that I can think of as of current price. But all in all, I would highly encourage patience just because you are sort of in the middle of nowhere with no clear direction yet to be established. Sometimes the best position is no position. Patience will pay in conditions like this. Next up, we move on to Ethereum. Well, Ethereum— oh, look at that, TP2 has been hit quite beautifully, just as we mentioned last week. Now, Ethereum is also in a similar position. If I were to pick something to short amongst Bitcoin and Ethereum, I'll definitely pick Ethereum just because of how weak it is compared to Bitcoin. Just to show you what I mean, Ethereum against Bitcoin has been, you know, really, really performing not so good. We all know that if Bitcoin were to tank, everything in crypto tends to tank, and Ethereum is no exception. And at the moment, the target for the Ethereum bear target is still going to be right here at $1,425. If Bitcoin were to hit $20K, Ethereum is actually going to go lower than this. But for now, let's try to identify a target other than the TP2. If we just draw a fib on that fair value gap over there, we can see that we have this target right here. So at the moment, the target for any Ethereum shorts is going to be at $1,522, and any target towards the upside is going to be right here at about $1,750. Right now, these are the only levels that really matter, and these are the only levels that you need to pay attention to. If Ethereum comes up to here, that's a short. If Ethereum comes down to here, then you probably maybe look for a long. If it's not looking good, then you wait for the retrace, right? Wait for the retrace and short it down to the bear target. That is Ethereum. And now let's look at Polkadot. Polkadot is also interesting in the sense that right now, you— if imagine if you are trading just within this range here, you went down to the range low, and then right now you formed another micro range. So the fact that you've already taken out the range low, again, you know, if you were to just follow range trading perspectives, then you would think that it is going to go up. But at the same time, if Bitcoin were to tank, then that is not going to be a likely scenario at all. So In that case, it's always going to be smart to map out a couple of levels towards the downside where we might be prepared to catch a long. And in this case, I can see that the couple levels that I would have in mind personally would be right here at about 3.9 and another one at about 3.6. So these 2 are the only levels that I would look at, bar this fair value gap. Actually, this fair value gap would be interesting as well if we were to draw a fib. So that is going to be 3 levels that I would be potentially looking at for a Polkadot long. Now, for Polkadot, as of this current At the moment, the only trade that I will take from this current position is not necessarily long, but a short down to either one of these 3 levels. That is a reference TP point. Again, just because something is already low does not mean that it cannot go lower. As such, I will continue to short this until it proves otherwise. Basically, until you get like, you know, a shift in market structure or something that indicates the market, like an aggressive move upwards, for example, then it's not time to go long yet. And so we just keep shorting it down to here, there, here. That's going to be 3.9, 3.6, and 3.4. And if things were to flip, Right? A sample scenario would be the fact that right now you have a range forming here. If you were to break out of this range aggressively towards the upside, this is going to become your bullish order block. So you retrace back into the bullish order block and then you form a new high. Similarly, if you were to break down here, this would also be a you know area value. Like this is just a bearish order block that when price were to retrace into, you can just take a short, place a stop loss above the order block and target new lows. It is as simple as that. And next up, we come and look at AVAX. Now honestly, the situation with AVAX is. Looking quite a bit worse than Polkadot, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. Basically, every one of those like key you know key support levels and whatever has been broken through. And the fact that Avax so right here at 9.65 is a key level for Avax. And the fact that during this down move it did not hit the key level means that it still has space to go lower. And if we were to come back all the way to Avax, which by the way, like if you were to have told people back in 2021 that Avax would be sub ten dollars, people would laugh at you. They would. Laugh you out of the room. And yet here we are, the magic of a bear market. Anything can happen. So if we were to come back to look at AVAX, you can see that there is not really much imbalances on the daily chart that we can see, except for this black line here, which is at $7.15, and then, you know, maybe lower. But right now we're not expecting AVAX to drop like another 50% from this current point, especially not in the near future. So for now, the only 2 levels we want to focus on is this level at $9.63 and this level at $7.15. Basically, AVAX will hit this level like without a doubt. And once it does, then either you're going to want to look for, you know, if you want to look for a bullish market structure change, it will look something like this. I don't really think that's likely. So in my personal opinion, what I would do is short AVAX all the way down to 7.14. And, you know, in fact, let's try to go into the 4-hourly chart to see if we can narrow down, you know, those key levels and see if there's anything that we might have missed from the daily chart, if there's any imbalances that we might have missed. And on the 4-hourly chart, we can actually see that there is indeed an imbalance right here. If we were to extend this line, it would be $8.05. So $8.05 is pretty much the only level other than, say, $9. Me personally, I would focus much more on $8. And yeah, you know, $8, $9, these are all valid key levels. Yeah, these are just sort of like checkpoints on the way to the ultimate target of $7.14. So if you were to be shorting AVAX, you know, let's say AVAX, you come to here and then, you know, price bounces a little bit, it gives you an opportunity to take profit on this short and to build a new short here. Comes down here, Oh, you take profit a little bit, and then let's say a little bounce, you take profit here and then build a new short, and bam bam bam, eventually you get to 7.14. That is how I see AVAX at the moment. I know that there are a lot of AVAX fanboys. I myself am included because AVAX was one of my biggest money makers back in the last bull run. But the fact remains that the price action is not looking so good, and until you get a bullish market structure change, or in what I like to call a displacement Where you get an aggressive move upwards and then you eventually come back down to find support, or simply just an aggressive move upwards that just breaks a lot of key levels. If you get that, then 100% I will switch my bias. But until that happens, AVAX is not looking particularly good. And until then, I will see you in the next video. And make sure you sign up for the waitlist of Trading Accelerator. Until then, I will see you in the next video. Bye-bye.