In this video, The Art of Crypto evaluates whether Bitcoin’s recent price lows represent a true macro bottom or merely a deep oversold condition. He begins by examining the daily chart’s Mean Reversion Channel (MRC), noting that Bitcoin has plunged deeper into the channel than any time since the March 2020 and October 2018 crashes—historical points that have previously signaled market bottoms. By comparing the current position to those past retracements, he estimates potential downside scenarios: a 24% drop below the MRC bottom band (~$13.4 K) or a 33% drop (~$12 K), while also referencing historic $10 K–$9 K bottom zones. He then shifts to a lower‑timeframe analysis, drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing high to swing low to locate equilibrium zones. The 0.5 Fibonacci level (~$25 K) is identified as the first major resistance, with the 0.618 level (~$28 K) marking the likely target of an imminent relief rally. This expectation is reinforced by a large CME futures gap between $27.3 K and $28.8 K, which historically has acted as a buying catalyst. While acknowledging that macro‑level bearish structure remains (lower highs/lows on the daily chart), he argues that current prices are still attractive for spot buying, especially over 2‑10‑year horizons, and that investors need not catch the exact bottom to achieve strong returns. He advises scaling in and dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) rather than attempting precise timing. For traders seeking short‑term profit, he pinpoints a fair‑value gap around $21.5‑$21.6 K on the 4‑hour chart as a potential short entry. Rather than placing a limit order, he recommends setting a TradingView alert, then confirming a break of market structure on a lower timeframe before entering. He also cautions against volatile‑driven stop‑losses and promotes using alerts to avoid premature exits. Throughout, he ties the analysis to broader macro factors—unprecedented fear, historic Fed rate‑hike context, and the principle that high‑fear environments historically produce the best buying opportunities.
Chapters
What's up everybody, this is going to just be a quick update on whether or not the bottom is in already, because in the last couple of videos we talked a lot about how there are many, many points of confluence and indicators and just data points that indicate that these prices at the moment where Bitcoin is at are historical buying prices. Now that we have filled those levels, it is now time to figure out if this is indeed the macro bottom and if it will just keep going up from here. And the quick answer is going to be no, we are not going to just keep going up from here. So if you want to hear the rest of the analysis, make sure you stay around to the end of this video. Now diving straight onto the daily chart, you can see that on the mean reversion channel we have went really, like really, really deep into a retracement on the MRC. And this is a really good sign because there has been only one other instance where we have went that deep onto the mean reversion channel, and that was back in March of 2020 as well as October of 2018. And I know some of you might say, hey, that's 2 instances, right? That's 2 instances. Cool. Either way, in both instances, right, when you go this deep into a retracement into the MRC, it indicates that that is either the bear market bottom, or this is like a super, you know, quote unquote oversold. I don't like to use that word, but you get the point. Either way, it is an indicator of, you know, a very macro bottom, and it indicates that these are historical buying prices. Now, just to be sure that that is indeed the bottom, Let's take a look. Now, in the second instance, you can see that we fell 24% below the mean bottom band of the mean reversion channel before, you know, we had a really big rebound. At the moment, we touched exactly, you know, the bottom band. So in the instance that we do fall below the bottom band, if we expect it to drop another 24%, that is going to put us at about $13.4K. And if we drop 33%, that's going to be right at about $12K. And those of you who watched my last video, you would have understood that I talked about these two levels right here at 10K and 9K, where if prices hit both of these levels, these are going to be like historic bottom levels, right? Bottom level. So that's the first thing that we have to understand, right? Even though this might not, might not be the exact bottom, it does not change the fact that the odds of you being profitable and getting a really good reward out of these buying prices at the moment is way, way higher than if you were to be shorting here. Now, am I saying that do not short this at all? That's not what I'm saying. In fact, I'm going to get into the levels where I might look for a short later, but that is only based on intraday and short-term trading. In the midterm and in the long term, these are prices that I'm buying at, right? This is where I'm buying spot. And if I do short, then that's going to just be an intraday movement to capture a, you know, a small move, a small pullback in the, you know, the bigger picture. Or maybe it could be a really big pullback as well. Either way, we're going to chop in to a lower time frame to figure that out. Now that we are at a lower timeframe, we have to figure out if this is indeed the bottom, and the lower timeframe is going to tell us that answer. Now, before I get into anything else, I'm going to just draw a fib from this swing high right here to that swing low right there. And the reason I do this is because we need to understand what are the key fib levels before we can dive into any kind of analysis. And I suggest all of you guys do the same with your ranges. Now, before we dive into anything else, in the last video as well as in my private Discord group, I mentioned that these are the areas where I'm going to be buying spot at. And in that, just the last video, I mentioned that $17,500 would have been a perfect level to buy spot at. And if there is anyone who caught $17,500, I need you to comment down in the comment section below, $17K, because you guys be in some massive, massive profits at the moment. And it would be amazing to hear if I've actually helped any of you guys make money. But either way, now that we have drawn the fib, let's get into a lower time frame. So the reason why I drew the fib in the first place is to identify like which is the area of equilibrium. And you can basically just define that as the 0.5 fib, because anytime the price goes quote unquote oversold or incredibly overbought, the algorithms tend to want to bring price back into equilibrium. So in this case, equilibrium is going to be above where price currently is at, and that is going to be sitting at around $25,000. So in this relief rally, if prices keep going up, then $25,000 is going to be the first major level of resistance that we're going to see in terms of, you know, within this range. But I'm going to go one step further and I'm going say that instead of drawing a fib from there to there, you can think of the price as moving downwards from this swing high right there to that swing low. I would say this swing, like this fib, is the one that completes the move, which means that assuming this is the bottom right here, the 0.5 is sitting at about $28K. And you can see this is where all the price actions happen, above the 0.5. So I would say that the first major level that the price could shoot for is at about $28 grand. Now, are we going to hit $28 grand, you know, right immediately? And the answer to that can be found in the Bitcoin CME futures chart. And right here you can see that there is a really, really big gap over here between 27,300 and about 28,800. Now why do I bring up a CME futures gap? Because the last time we had a CME futures gap, this is where I told you guys to buy, right there. See that CME futures gap right there? This is where I told you guys to buy back in that video. Look what happened immediately after that level. Bam! At the moment there is only 2 CME futures gaps between, you know, where price is at the moment. And if we assume that The relief rally is going to be beginning in this week up to three weeks. Now again, I don't think that the macro bottom is necessarily in, but what I do understand is that I want you to think of it this way, right? We have not gotten an interest rate hike by the Fed this on this scale in thirty or like fifty years or something, right? So this current times fear is at an all-time high level, right? It is at close to unprecedented levels. Then you have to think about historically speaking where have been the best buying opportunities? Where have they presented themselves? And the answer to that question is. when fear is at really high levels. So when you pair this equation up, then you could pretty easily imagine, like, with the kind of panic that you've been seeing in the markets over the last 2, 3 weeks, then it is very easy to assume that you might have some kind of a relief rally back to $28K, $29K before ultimately moving down again. And that does not really defeat the higher timeframe narrative because at the moment, if you take a look at the daily chart, you are still bearish until otherwise proven because you've consistently formed lower highs and lower lows. And even if you were to retrace all the way back here, you can see that you have not really broken structure on a higher timeframe other than this high right here, which we're not going to count. So imagine this way, right? Price comes in and fills this EMA gap before going downwards. So essentially you can think of it as before you break about $32,000-ish, which is this swing high right here, you are not really bullish on the daily chart or any kind of higher timeframe macro chart. So when you assume it that way, it can be easy to see where, you know, why this would make sense. So to the people who are buying spot, Yes, these are really good prices. In fact, I believe it's incredible prices to be buying spot because if you extrapolate this to like a 2, 5, 10-year timeframe, this is going to be just— you're gonna get like 10, 20, 50x out of these current prices. But for the people who are trying to build a leveraged swing position, as long as you scale in, these are still good prices to be buying in. Just expect further downside before you find the eventual bottom. And just remember that we are not trying to catch the exact bottom here. You don't need to catch the exact bottom in order to make really good money when it comes to investing. And that is the moral of the story, right? Just scale in, DCA, and you'll be fine. To the traders out there, let's talk about some levels where I might be looking for a short. And that level is going to present itself at 21,500 to 21,600-ish, because if you take a look at the 4-hourly time frame, you can see that there is a fair value gap where essentially there is zero price action happening between this level. Not only that, but you have 2 relatively equal highs over here which price is going to shoot for. Right? Because every time when you see market structure on the lowest time frame shift, for example, over here you have started to form higher highs and higher lows. Whenever this happens, you have to immediately start looking for the level that these market makers are looking to take out. Example, this right here is a swing high right here, and notice how the moment you take out that level, immediately you get a retrace, right? This is what— this is liquidity, right? There is liquidity here. There is also similarly, there is liquidity, a lot of liquidity in this fair value gap. Essentially, think of it as an institutional area of value. If you follow my school of thought at all, or if you've watched any of my videos before, you understand that the best trades that you will ever take is the trades that you take in accordance to the institutional direction, because then you have the power of these institutions behind you instead of against you. So if I was looking for a short, I would look for it at about $21,500 to about $21,600. Now instead of setting a limit directly at that level, which is what I'm not going to do, I would Just set an alert, and the way you do that is you literally just go on TradingView, add alert, and once price hits this level, you will be alerted. You know, makes sense. Now, if you want thirty dollars off your TradingView subscription, check out the link in the description box below. But otherwise, the reason I don't recommend setting a limit just right there is because prices are really volatile at the moment, and I'm sure many of you can attest when price is really volatile, you tend to get stopped out prematurely before price moves in your direction. For example, if you went long at any point. During this down move. Look at how aggressive this down move was. If you— let's say you set a limit like, let's say, there, and you place your stop loss there, right, then you would have got stopped out within like 5 minutes before price ultimately bounced in your favor. So when times are volatile, you know, pro tip: instead of setting a limit, set an alert. Once the alert hits, you go on to a lower time frame and observe whether or not the market is, you know, shifting in your bias. In this case, we're looking for a short, so we're gonna look price to, you know, break structure and go to the downside. Once that confirms, then we enter. And if you want a video exactly on how to do that, I've already posted a, you know, my bread and butter strategy that I use every single day in order to generate consistent profits on a low time frame chart.
