don't fall for this fake pump on bitcoin (SELL, not BUY)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, we're going to break down exactly what's going on with Bitcoin on the weekly chart. I'm going to give you the overall kind of like higher time frame view of Bitcoin, going to give you the lower time frame view of Bitcoin, plus the specific trade that I'll be looking for personally today. Now if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan, and for the past year and a half I've been making these videos basically daily, and I've been publicly documenting the success rate of the calls that I make in this video. Because at the end of the day, like anyone on YouTube can make a call, but And guys that are, you know, accurate and especially accurate over time, that's a much more rare thing, you know, to see. And so far I've got about a 78% win rate across like 200 trades tracked. So let's say I'm right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So with that, you know, kind of statistic said, you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often. So yeah, at this point, let's get into the video without any further ado. So let's kick things off on the weekly chart because it's really important to understand just the overall kind of like weekly bias before we move into looking at the daily chart. After all, You always want to go from high timeframe to low timeframe, not the other way around. So in terms of, like, before I even get into the weekly bias, just understand that so far the structure on Bitcoin has been broken in the sense that the moment we went below this level, like, when we went below this level, it was like, yeah, you know, you could still potentially make the argument that, you know, the uptrend was not over. Fun fact, you can't really. Like, I was already calling a lot of shorts back then. But once this one got taken, Like yeah, you're absolutely screwed because if like if we were to draw out the major market structure and mind you this is on the weekly chart that we're looking at. So as you can see right there, that is a lower high that's followed by a lower low. Like clearly that is a broken market structure at this point. Order flow is broken and order flow has been bearish since. So right now we're coming back into. So the reason why I tell you this is because yes last week we ended up closing bullish, but that also doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things because. Right now you are having a bullish weekly candle close straight into a huge weekly order block plus a huge weekly fair value gap. Now if that sounds like a bunch of mumbo jumbo to you, essentially what I'm trying to say is that we're running into a lot of resistance here. So even though we are supposed to be technically bullish on this week, any sort of pumps should be treated with caution and should be treated as an opportunity to get or to position yourself into better shorts rather than to aim or like take a bet on a reversal. So essentially what I'm also trying to say is that the downtrend is not over. Do not buy the dip here because you are going to get absolutely screwed. And instead, do the sensible thing, which is to position yourself into shorts, sell low, and then buy back lower, which is essentially how shorting works, right? So that is what is going on on the weekly chart so far. So let's actually get into the daily chart just to see if there are any things that, you know, we can kind of like refine. Now, in terms of the daily chart, yes, we are looking bullish so far the last couple of days, which You know, where weekends ended up closing bullish. In fact, earlier today, we got a confirmation that you know there is a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran that was basically confirmed, and the signings are going to take place on June 19th in Switzerland. Now, I'm not going to get into the specifics. I'm not I'm not even going to give you my opinion on like whether or not this peace deal is going to last or not, and you know what Netanyahu and you know Israel is going to do. That all is just you know details that may not be relevant. But what you need to understand is. Yes, the news is what caused this pump. Just purely based off of everything, that is not enough. Like, the single piece of news being good is not enough to kind of overturn this entire, you know, downtrend that we've been seeing on Bitcoin. At least not immediately. Now, sometime in the near future, absolutely. But for now, $50K still remains the target that I think we will go to before any sort of significant bottom. That is just my opinion. Take it or leave it. Now, in terms of the daily chart, again, right now you're coming into this daily fair value gap and this daily fair value gap over here, both of which align with that weekly fair value gap. Now, it is in my humble opinion that We are not going to go too much higher than $70,000. Not only is this kind of like a round number, you know, kind of psychological level, but like case in point, right? This is just a whole lot of resistance that you're coming into. And regardless of how this week goes, I'm of the opinion that as we kind of head higher, now we're still going to trade day by day, like just, you know, taking it as it is. But overall, we're going to be making use of some of these days to build into some sort of a swing short rather than— don't get me wrong, like while this week has a bullish bias, now while there is a lot of resistance, it does not mean that it's going to necessarily— it does not mean that every single day when it comes to intraday trading, which by the way, intraday trading literally means that we're opening and closing the trade within the same day. Usually, mostly our trades are opened and closed within like the span of 2 to 3 hours. So that is a very short timeframe where whatever is happening here on the super high timeframe, it's good to keep in mind, but it does not mean that while we're looking to build a swing short, we cannot still trade these little intraday moves towards that area where we're going to be building the swing short. So that's going to be my approach heading into this week. But I am just going to keep a very cautious and very open mind in the sense where, example, if once we get into this level and then we have a daily bearish close, like at that point I am not going to try to buy the dip or anything. I'm not going to buy a retracement to expect that price goes higher. If anything, the moment I get that bearish candle close, especially while you're in a key level, then I am going to be shorting aggressively, right? That's the way that I'm going to play it. Now firstly, I think the question to answer is, do I think that this level is going to be, you know, the resistance zone? I'm I'm going to say not really, because one of the— here's a pro tip, by the way, to anyone who's watching at this point in the video so far. I'm going to drop some secret sauce for you. So when it comes to PD arrays, something that you really want to look for that kind of validates the strength of a PD array is to look at the 50% line. So as you can see, this is the fair value gap, right? And this is the 50%. Now oftentimes a good fair value gap or a good order block, you will rarely see price go beyond the 50% line, or even if it hits the 50% line, it's just going to give a quick tap and, you know, off go. And one thing's for sure, you are not looking for candle closes above or below that 50% line. So given the fact that we've already had a candle close followed by, you know, a pretty substantial wick, I'm going to say that, um, for the next couple of days we're going to be looking at a bullish move heading into this higher fair value gap here on the daily chart before some sort of a significant move lower. So essentially, as long as the lower time frame adds up, I'm still going to be looking for longs heading into this level. And let me just double-check news, um, to make sure that we are thinking about this the right way, because oftentimes Like, for example, this kind of validates this theory so far. Monday and Tuesday doesn't have news, but we have news on Wednesday and that's about it. So Wednesday is the only news day and that's gonna be federal funds rate. And like, this is gonna probably be the biggest news event of not only the week but also the month because so far with CPI still, you know, like with inflation still really high, one of the things that the government cannot do at the moment is to reduce interest rates. In fact, they're even considering increasing the interest rates. And if you know anything about how interest rates affects Bitcoin or just risk assets in general, you know that risk assets, Like Bitcoin, like the stock market, NASDAQ, whatever, right? They thrive in a situation where interest rates are lower because that means liquidity is a lot more free-flowing. Now, if the Federal Reserve cannot lower interest rates, or if they even consider raising interest rates due to inflation, like that sets a macroeconomic kind of stage for Bitcoin to go lower. So not only are the technicals kind of aligning, but we also potentially, right, this is not confirmed yet, but we potentially have a macroeconomic catalyst coming on Wednesday that we can look for. So, so far, Essentially, what I'm— I'm kind of going aside the topic here. What I was meaning to show you is that when you have a week where Monday and Tuesdays do not have news, and then Wednesday is like the first news day, you can oftentimes expect the first couple of days of the week to almost be like a setup week, right? It's almost like a false move. It kind of lulls you into sleep by pumping, and you think the market's going up, and then it's going to catch you off guard on Wednesday and give you the big dump. This is just kind of how the market likes to operate. So just to give you an example from last week, right? Monday goes down, Tuesday goes down, and then Wednesday, boom, instant reversal. And then Thursday, Friday, straight the other way, right? So if last week gives us any sort of indication, I'm not saying that that is the sample size that we look at. It's sample size of one, but like I'm just speaking from experience here. I'm not gonna go back and like cherry pick certain examples, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Monday, Tuesday like that, and then Wednesday you form the high of the week, and then Thursday, Friday, maybe something like that, right? Just an idea. Nothing's confirmed until it's confirmed, but we're gonna keep this in mind. But anyways, because we have a bullish daily bias, let's See if there is any possible trades on the one hourly chart. Now, on the one hourly chart, order flow is clearly bullish. And so, on the one hourly chart, the order flow is clearly bullish. Over here, you've got a new order block, and over there, you've got a new fair value gap. So, I'm just going to mark both of these out. And essentially, like by the time you watch this video, if you happen to you know not trade significantly lower than this point, then you are more than welcome. Rather, the setup for today is going to be taking advantage of this order block right here. It's even better if you end up closing above by the time you watch this video. If you get an hourly candle close above this level right here, and at 65,900, that kind of tells you that, hey, order flow is really strong and price really wants to continue to go up. And at which point you could take an entry using that as the entry, using that as the potential stop, and you would take a profit at simply 2R. Now, could we potentially go a little bit higher? Yeah, I think so. If we really want to just kind of narrow down some targets, let's say 67,500 makes total sense for some sort of a target, which potentially gives you an easily, like easily 2:1 Uh, you're potentially looking at a 4-hour trade over here, assuming you get a candle close above this level by the time you watch this video. Now, the second scenario would be that, okay, let's say price continues straight lower by the time you watch this video. It's really close to this prior low right here. That makes this relatively equal lows, at which point you would actually expect these relatively equal lows to get swept. So if that happens, this trade is completely invalidated, right? I would not continue to force the issue now because, like, today's Monday, which leads me on to my next point, which is Like for me, chances that I'll be trading today is very low. Like if I look back at my journal or even if I just look back at the trades that I've taken over the last, you know, year and a half or so, the majority, like I don't have a, like I have a pretty decent win rate, right? I don't lose a lot of trades. What I can tell you is that the majority of the days where I do lose a trade tends to be on Monday. And the pattern is always clear where technically speaking, right, in terms of technical analysis, it's really clear, right? Bullish order flow, you've got a bullish order block, you've got a bullish fair value gap, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everything kind of aligns. But because it's Monday, and oftentimes Monday has no news, right? Remember, every month there is only one Monday that has news and the other 3, not so much. When you don't have news, what that means is that there is not much of a reason for price to make a clean move or a big move. And both are kind of required if you want to get a successful trade. So what ends up happening a lot of the times is everything will seem like they align, but then when you actually take the trade, it just doesn't play out or it just chops around where it doesn't hit your target. It doesn't hit your stop either. And like most likely you're just going to be sitting there watching a trade that is doing absolutely nothing and you're going to be really tempted to close it out. And most of the time I do because why hold, like why trade in these conditions? So unless I see like a very clear high conviction sign, which for me is going to be a candle close above this, right? If I don't see that, I'm not really going to be that excited and taking any trades because any scenario other than this leaves me room to where Like this relatively equal low could be formed and could potentially be swept out before price pumps, or it could just be another type of retracement day. So not counting on this lower fair value gap either. Like assume you fill it, chances are you're going to have this to, you know, kind of overcome its resistance. I'm not looking like I'm not going to be that keen on that one either. So the setup for today is very clear. But again, as a, you know, responsible— I would like to think of myself as being more responsible than most of your, you know, hype bros out there, you know, that just calls you trades irresponsibly. Today's probably a no-trade day, just being completely honest. You know the Not every day is a trading day. This is one of those examples. And on that note, by the way, if you appreciate the way that I do things or just my philosophy when it comes to trading, where it's simple yet effective, and if you'd like to learn this in the next 90 days, like we have, like our students have been getting such insane results. Like it's even unbelievable for me. Last week we had Eric and Yongwon got a couple of payouts totaling to about $3,500. Both of them are funded for close to $200K at this point. So that makes $400K in funding. Anish finally did a, finally passed his first funding challenge. That is a $25K account. Juba, shout out to you. Like, thanks for posting this. I will definitely be reaching out to you to just talk more about how you managed to achieve this, but 750K accounts. And clearly some of them have had payouts before. And over here, that's another 50K account. Over here, this guy made $2K. No, actually only $1.7K because he closed a little bit early. And last week also someone passed a $50K challenge. So like, yeah, this is all from last week, right? Like June 10th, that's a win. June 11th, that's a win. June 12th, June 11th, that's 2 wins actually. Like, but case in point, right? You've been watching these YouTube videos. You know that this strategy works for me. You also know based on the insane amount of wins that I've been posting over the last, I don't know, year and a half or so, that this also works for other people. So if you're still on the fence and if you would like to just learn the system and start making money, click the first link down in the description box below, book a call. And if we're able to help, like we'll make you an offer. If we're not, like no stress, we're never going to kind of like force you to buy anything, right? But what we will do is we'll point you in the right direction. Like we'll give you a couple of action items so that you can work towards just becoming a better trader. Otherwise, I'll see you guys later tonight if I have any trades that I will, you know, make an update on in regards to the market. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.