Evergrande + This ONE Announcement Will Be DANGEROUS For The Crypto Markets | #Bitcoin #BTC
In this 20‑minute market‑update, the host of The Art of Crypto walks viewers through a detailed Bitcoin technical analysis, macro‑economic outlook, and a specific alt‑coin trade setup. He confirms that Bitcoin’s $40K support remains strong and outlines two short‑term scenarios, emphasizing the $38.5K‑$40K demand zone and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement as a high‑probability buying area. He explains how higher‑timeframe structures (4‑hour, weekly) can differ from lower‑timeframe signals, warning against misreading down‑trend cues on the 1‑hour chart. The presenter advises dollar‑cost averaging during panic‑selling, stressing that fear‑driven market dips present buying opportunities. He then shifts to macro factors: the upcoming FOMC meeting, the concept of tapering, and how interest‑rate differentials affect the US Dollar Index (DXY) and, inversely, Bitcoin’s price. He links potential Fed rate hikes to reduced borrowing, lower institutional demand for risky assets, and a likely market downturn. The Evergrande crisis is examined, with the People’s Bank of China’s interest‑payment “band‑aid” described as insufficient, suggesting short‑term market relief but longer‑term risk if deeper intervention does not occur. The video concludes with a bullish scenario—Bitcoin breaking above $43,600—and a bearish scenario—rejection at a bearish order block—each paired with actionable guidance on position sizing and leverage. Finally, the host promotes his private Discord for real‑time updates and presents a concrete trade on the Horizon/Zen BTC pair, detailing entry, stop‑loss, and multiple profit‑target levels in satoshis, recommending partial‑take‑profits and disciplined risk management. The overall tone is instructional, urgent, and cautiously optimistic, aimed at retail traders seeking actionable insights.
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What's up, everybody? Welcome back to the Art of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. In this video, we are going to do yet another update and hopefully another short little sweet update on Bitcoin and the state of the crypto markets. Not only that, we are going to talk about the FOMC meeting as well as the Evergrande crisis at the moment and China's. Sort of reaction to the crisis. But before we dive right into the video, if you haven't already followed me at _TheArtOfCrypto on Twitter, you are missing out. This is where I'm sharing the latest market updates that I cannot share on YouTube due to time constraints. And let's just say that you are going to want to be following me on Twitter when I am sharing those updates. So for now, let's, let's, let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin because that's what ultimately everyone wants to know. And let's immediately start Start by saying that the support and resistance lines that I was drawing over the last two days, and that I taught you guys to sort of time your altcoin entries at those levels, has been playing out absolutely spot on. Right? Forty K continues to remain as a very strong level of support, and there is only a couple of scenarios that is going to occur from this point onwards. I do believe that the next time we dip, that will be very, very, very, very close to the bottom. Or that it will be the bottom. Now, what I want you to notice when it comes to Bitcoin is that every time we have, you know, when Bitcoin does something, right, you always get sort of 3 peaks and sort of 3 bottoms every time Bitcoin decides to reverse in the opposite direction. And at the moment, you can see that on the 1-hourly chart, you could argue that this is 1, 2, 3, right? So perhaps this one is the last one. However, I cannot be too certain of that. So in the event that you do get another dip, then this is going to be sort of like 1, 2, 3, 4, or maybe 1, 2, 3, depending on how you look at it. And as for the levels that you're gonna wanna pay attention to, it is going to be somewhere in between $38,500 to $40K, right? Anywhere in this zone right here that I'm going to draw out right now, anywhere in between this zone is going to be a pretty good buying opportunity. So you're gonna wanna take advantage of that, because if you watched that video that I did yesterday, I mentioned that even though we are retracing all the way back here, as long as Bitcoin remains bullish, this is going to be a very key area for you to be buying Bitcoin at, right? This zone between $41K to $38K. As long as Bitcoin remains bullish, you are not going to get these kinds of prices another time, right? And just to, you know, give you a little bit of perspective, if you just draw a Fibonacci retracement from this swing low over here, $29K, to $52K right here, then you can see that this area right here at $38K falls right at the 0.618 retracement level. And for those of you who know anything about Fib retracements, this is an absolutely key level that you want to pay attention to. And assuming that it does retrace all the way back to the 0.618 and then continues bouncing, then it would still be a very strong uptrend. Now, I know it doesn't seem that way on the daily chart because right now you are getting lower highs and lower lows. But here's the thing about market structure. You always want to frame market structure based on a higher timeframe, right? I'll just give you an example. At the moment, this right here looks like a downtrend, right? It is very clearly a downtrend. However, when I go onto the 4-hourly chart, I can see that this is indeed very clearly an uptrend. But if I just take it just based on this, you know, market structure over here, I would get absolutely wrecked. I would get way too bullish after it has formed this second top over here, which looks to me like a clear of liquidity for me. So it is always important that just because something looks like it's on a downtrend on the lower time frame, if let's say I go on to the weekly chart, you can see that on the weekly chart it is literally just one line here, and right now it is just retracing, right? And you could argue that as long as we do not break $29K, we are still bullish, because Bitcoin could literally— like, it could literally fall all the way back to $29K and bounce, and we would just be forming a range. We wouldn't be bearish yet. So while it might be immediately bearish in the short term, right, in the immediate short term, you are not bearish yet on the higher time frame. And by higher time frame, I'm talking about the weekly chart. You could argue that this was a lower high, right? But at the moment, I do think that this right here is going to be a very key demand zone where if Bitcoin bounces from here, it will go on to form, you know, hopefully new highs. But either way, as long as Bitcoin remains bullish, as long as the bull run remains intact, then you are not going to get these kinds of prices for quite a while. So while everyone is panicking, just make sure you remember that I've already given you guys the exact levels that you should be paying attention to. Like honestly, the people who watch my videos should should really be doing quite well during times like this because you guys should already be prepared. I've already given you guys the exact levels. So immediately, like over the course of the next couple of hours to potentially the 24 to 48 hours, we are going to go back onto the 4-hourly chart and we are just going to draw a Fibonacci retracement from this swing top over here to this swing low. And you can see right now we are in the 0.618 retracement, like this bearish order block zone over here. If we go back onto the 1-hourly chart, you can see this much more clearly. We could refine those we can refine this order block much, much more clearly. And why did I draw this bearish order block so widely? So if we just view it on this way, right, this last bullish candle before this massive move downwards was considered a bearish order block. And currently, right, we have already went back to the 0.786. And this is why I love using Fibs, right? They just give you just areas of value for you to play it, you know, play anything by. And at the moment It has gotten rejected, and I did call this rejection on the private Discord group over here. I mentioned that it will be rejected. And so if, you know, these kinds of regular market updates is something that you would appreciate, this is something that you get in the private Discord group basically in real time. However, I'm not gonna get into that right now, so let's continue. So currently, does this mean that we are bearish? Now, in the immediate short term, perhaps. So right now, I just wanna give you guys a couple of scenarios. At the moment, assuming that Bitcoin got rejected there, which it did, then you're going to want to look for a retracement in order to get some Bitcoin. Right now, as long as you do not break this 41,800, you know, area, then you are not immediately bearish on Bitcoin. However, if it does break this level, you're going to want to look for the 0.618, right? The 0.5, the 0.618 to the 0.705 and the 0.786. I doubt it gets to the 0.786, but at the moment, any retracements You know, just go for it, right? And if it does retrace even harder, then you have your levels like down low that I've already given you guys so that you guys are prepared. And for those of you asking me, hey, like you're giving me so many levels, how am I supposed to use this information to my advantage? Well, just put it simply, right? Just dollar cost average. I cannot tell you that, hey, it will bounce from here. Right now, these statistics probably tell us that there is going to be perhaps one more leg down. And if we do get that one more leg down, it is going to be the capitulation candle. And that is going to be like the candle where everyone's going to be thinking like, hey, it's going to zero, I need to sell all my Bitcoin now, I need to sell my alts now. And for everyone that panics, you guys are going to be prepared, right? Because trust me when I say that when people are panic selling and when, you know, when fear is at its highest, right, whenever you find that fear is at its highest point inside the market, it is going to be some of the easiest money that you are going to be making. Like, how many people would have thought of buying Bitcoin at this price. I did actually at $40K because, you know, I was telling you guys to buy there. Like, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and not take my own advice, right? So like, when everyone's panic selling, buy it from them, right? Smart money is the ones buying when you are panic selling. So hopefully to the people who watch this video, you should be prepared, right? For the people who watch this channel. So in the event that it continues dipping, just dollar cost average. These are going to be very good areas where Price historically, or rather not historically, price will have a very high chance of reversing from these areas. Just as you can see from, you know, these two levels, look at the bounce, and then you see 40K, look at the bounce. And moving on to just one last point before I move on to some more macroeconomic factors is the fact that you're going to want to mark down this level at 43,600 to 700-ish, right? In order for Bitcoin to be bullish in the immediate short term, you you want to see Bitcoin break above this level because this is a previous swing high. Now, as long as Bitcoin remains bearish, you are going to keep forming lower highs and lower lows. And as long as you're bullish, it will break through this high, come down and form a higher low, and then it will continue doing, you know, the bullish structure. So you're gonna wanna pay attention to this level, right? Once you break this level, then make sure you buy the retracement because there is a good chance that it is going to be a, you know, a bullish signal. And any retracement that you buy, especially at the 0.618 or the 0.786, or anywhere in between there is going to be a pretty good place to buy. And if you do get it, then there is a good chance that you are going to be catching the trend reversal. At the moment, if you feel like this kind of knowledge has been helpful to you, it would be so, so helpful to me if you could drop a like button. It's a small gesture, but it really, really means a lot to me. So that about covers it for Bitcoin. Now let's get into the stuff that is happening. So there's a couple of sort of macroeconomic factors that I want to talk about, and that is the first one of it is going to be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. So So this is going to be happening today, right, when it meets on September the 21st and the 22nd. And right now, the thing that is sort of keeping the entire market on its edge right now, at the edge of its seat right now, is this thing called tapering. So basically, now at the moment, today, just earlier today, the Bank of Japan, right, which just concluded their version of the FOMC meeting, they have announced that they will not be Really, like they will not be increasing the interest rates, right? They will not be doing tapering, and tapering basically just means that they will continue with the buyback of assets and you know just quantitative easing. And what that means, right? Just to put it in very layman's terms, right? We don't even need to explain like what this is about, but all you need to understand is that if anything, like if any bank decides to raise interest rates, and most importantly, if the United States Federal Reserve decides to increase interest rates, then what's going to happen is that it's going to become way more— like, firstly, it's going to become way more expensive to borrow money. So when it comes to stuff like, you know, investors, especially institutional investors, which rely heavily on borrowing money to be able to invest in assets, that's going to get reduced, right? And you can imagine that if people stop buying assets because it becomes more expensive to borrow money to buy assets, then there is a very good chance that the entire market is going to go start trending into a downwards sort of trajectory. And the second thing that you must understand about interest rates is, I know I said that I wouldn't explain what this is, but hey, that's why you guys watch my channel compared to any other channel, right? It's because I explain things. I'm gonna just use the USD Japanese yen as an example. So the interest rate for the Japanese yen is currently sitting at about 0.1%, and at the moment I believe the US interest rate is about 0.25% or 0.1%. Don't quote me on this. But whatever the case may be, the interest rate for the US dollar is currently higher than the interest rate for the Japanese yen. So, and as you can see that for the past basically 10 years, the USD has been on an upward trajectory compared to the Japanese yen. And you could just fully attribute this to the fact that when the interest rate of a currency is higher than another currency, investors, especially institutional investors, they will choose to put their money in the one that will give them a higher return, right? If I choose to park my money in the US dollar in the form of government bonds, then that's going to give me a higher rate of return compared to if I were to put it in the Japanese yen, which is going to lose me 0.1% every year. So the reason why this matters is because of the DXY. Now the DXY is the strength— it measures the strength of the US dollar compared to a basket of currencies, right? But the primary currencies are going to be the EUR, right, the euro, which makes up for about 57.3% of the DXY, and the Japanese yen, which makes up for about 14.7% or something, right? Don't quote me on that. But whatever the case, imagine if the Federal Reserve decides to announce that they are going to be doing tapering and they are going to be raising the interest rates. What's going to happen is that the DXY, right, because the interest rate for the US dollar is going to rise, that means that the DXY is going to pump, right? Because that indicates strength in the US dollar, right? When that happens, you need to understand that Bitcoin historically has been inversely correlated to the DXY. Whenever the DXY pumps, the, like, Bitcoin is going to go down. Not only that, but if you just look at something like, for example, the S&P 500, the last time, like during the March 2020 crash, during times of like economic uncertainty and just general, you know, danger, investors are going to choose to de-risk some of their assets, right? Whenever you go into somewhat of a financial crisis or like a recession or anything, what you will often realize is that the first thing, the first thing that drops in value, right, the first thing that goes poop is going to be risky asset classes, right? And that includes the S&P 500. And I hope I don't need to say this, but Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is literally the definition, like the definition of risky asset classes. This is purely a speculative asset class at this point. I hate to admit it, right? But you have to accept the fact sometimes that this is a risky asset class. And if you were to go into any form of economic uncertainty, and by economic uncertainty, I mean when the Fed announces that they are going to raise interest rates, the first thing that is going to pop, right? The first bubble that is going to pop is going to be crypto and very likely the stock market, right? And with the Evergrande crisis going on right now, there is a good chance that real estate is going to take a hit as well. Not in the United States, hopefully not in the rest of the world, but especially in China. And let's like we'll talk about Evergrande in a little bit. But this has like there's a lot of moving parts in this wheel, and such is the nature of macroeconomics. And if this is something that you want to dive a little bit deeper on about, I actually made a video like detailing exactly what macroeconomic factors that you should be taking a paying attention to in regards to crypto. And just leading up to 2022, I believe that these factors are going to be absolutely key to determining whether or not we might be going into an economic recession, you know, sometime this year or maybe next year. And that will heavily impact crypto as well, because if the market goes into an economic recession, crypto is going to pop, right? Regardless of what people tell you about, hey, bull market's not ending, right? You got the new pull, it has not went into euphoria, you have stock-to-flow, Like during times of economic, you know, just just watch the video. I'm gonna link it on the top right, and trust me when I say it is going to be very very helpful. So back to the FOMC. I'm sorry for delaying this or like dragging this on, but back to the FOMC, right? Japan has announced that they will continue with what they're doing right now, and they will maintain their interest rates. They will not increase their interest rates. So I know this is no indication, but I do expect the Federal Reserve to make. A similar kind of announcement, right? I don't believe that they are going to raise the interest rates, at least not right now, especially because of the stuff that's happening with Evergrande right now and just the fact that the entire stock market, or just the entire market, is in a general sense of unease and unrest and slight panic. If the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates right now, it is just going to add on to the cascading effects of, you know, just this uncertainty. And frankly speaking, I, I don't think they're gonna do it right now. Maybe they'll do it in the future, right in the near future, but I doubt it's gonna happen like right, right now. Just based on what's going on with the markets right now, I don't think they would want to crash the markets as well. So whatever the case, the reason why I bring up this news is simply for just to ask you to wait until the announcement is, you know, released that, hey, are they gonna start tapering? Are they gonna not Do tapering because chances are it is going to be a very bad idea jumping into the markets, especially when it's in the middle of nowhere like right now, right? It's not near support, it's not near resistance, it's literally in the middle of nowhere. And there is no— you have no business jumping into any positions until you reach an area of value. And when it comes to areas of value, I, I've already given you guys the areas of value, so I really hope you put them to good use. But either way, if they announce that, hey, They are not going to be doing tapering, then you know the markets can carry on like usual. But if they announce that they're going to be doing tapering, then the market's going to take a hard hit. And trust me, you want you really want to wait until direction is established, right? You really want to wait for a clear word before you start jumping into anything. Just just a recommendation, right? You've already waited for I don't know it's it's not much waiting for a few hours for an announcement before you jump right into things. So that is going to be on the FOMC. I'm really sorry that this video is dragging on the way it is, but just let me know. Right, let me know if you guys appreciate the explanations, or would you like me to keep my videos short and sweet like yesterday? Right, just comment down in the comment section. So right now, let's talk about Evergrande, right? So there's a couple of things that you need to understand about Evergrande right now. The People's Bank of China has announced that they are going to be pumping money into to solve this issue, right? So at least we have some form of a word from the Chinese government that they will try to alleviate this issue. Now, you do not want to be fooled into thinking that this is the be-all end-all of this issue. So the thing about like the, um, the underlying sort of hidden thing about this move from the Bank of China is the fact that right now what they are tackling is simply the interest on its loans, right? So Evergrande has taken on a lot of debt, and with debt, right, with debt comes interest that you need to repay, you know, for every set amount of At every set period of time, and right now what the People's Bank of China is doing is simply repaying the interest. Right? They are not tackling the underlying debt. Right? That's like saying, "Hey, I'm fat and I cannot fit in my clothes, so I'm going to stop eating." Period. And you can see what's the problem with that, right? The problem like that you're not solving the underlying cause, right? If you just stop eating, then eventually you're going to need to eat again. But if you don't, like you're not fixing the habits. Your eating habits that are causing you to be fat in the first place. So right now, China, right, or this Evergrande issue is simply putting a band-aid, right? It's a band-aid solution. The fact that you're only repaying the interest that is due on Thursday is just buying, it's essentially just buying time for Evergrande to hopefully do something. You're not tackling the underlying issue, right? You're not tackling the underlying debt. You're just repaying the interest. This will bring short-term relief to the market, and the reason why I believe that, hey, um, dips could be for buying for Bitcoin especially. But if the government does not step in to intervene further with this issue and really tackle the underlying sort of root problem, this crisis, this thing with Evergrande, like this entire fiasco, is going to come up again. So that is what you need to understand about Evergrande at the moment. This is just a band-aid solution. So we might be good for, you know, a short period of time, a couple of weeks, a couple of months, but they really need to tackle the root cause in order for the markets to get back on track. But for now, for now though, I think it will really calm the markets down, and especially right now Bitcoin volatility does seem to be calming down as well. So just a couple of closing thoughts before I end this video. At the moment, the bullish scenario is going to be for Bitcoin to bust through this $43,600 level. And if it does bust through there, then that is all the bullish confirmation that you need in the immediate short term. So once you bust through that level, in the event that it retraces, you're going to want to buy the pullback, right? But for now, for now, just in the immediate, like immediate few hours to 24 hours, you are considered bearish because currently you are getting rejected over this bearish order block right here. And if we were to follow the current trajectory it would appear that it is going to go down for one more leg. However, right now I have already given you the 2 scenarios that you should be paying attention to. So no matter what happens, you are going to be ready to react, right? You just read and react. That's, that's the nature of the markets. You don't want to be predicting things. You just want to wait for a direction to form and then you just react. So I really highly advise you guys not to go too wild on your leverage, especially your position sizes. Before direction has been established. But in general, $41K— this area between $41K to $38K is going to be a very key level of just demand that you are going to want to look to buy as long as Bitcoin remains bullish. I do believe that this will be the reversal point, but otherwise, just remember that, hey, when fear is at its highest, you really, really want to take advantage of it and make sure you are buying— like, getting— make sure you're getting excited during times when there is just general panic and distress. And if you would like more market updates like this, you're going to want to sincerely check out the private Discord group over here. I'm going to give you guys daily market updates pretty much in real time. And as a bonus, you're going to get access to a trading education where you will learn everything that I've learned over the years, and you're going to figure out what works and discard pretty much 90% of the things that don't work. As a bonus, you're gonna get access to all the profitable trading setups that I'm calling every day. And we have people making money literally every day. So, you know, what can I say? You're probably going to pay off this Discord group pretty quickly. If you're interested, make sure you check the link in the description. But for now, I'm going to get into the bonus trading setup that all of you guys probably have come to expect nowadays. So the coin that we are going to look at is going to be Horizon BTC, right? ZenBTC. I'm talking about the Bitcoin pairing in this case because, you know, it just looks good on the Bitcoin pairing. What you're going to want to do is you're going to want to mark down this level at 1,743 satoshis, and you're going to want to buy the breakout of that, right, like that or like that on the bullish retest. Now doing so is going to allow you to set a stop loss at a reasonable level, so basically like maybe right below this level, because you know that a breakout is supposed to break out, it's not supposed to go up and come back down. And if it does, then you just get stopped out with minimal loss. So the TP levels for this one is going to be at 1,800 satoshis, 1,900 satoshis, close to 2,000 satoshis, 2,074 satoshis, 2,150 satoshis, 2,200 satoshis, 2,274 satoshis. Now if all these profit targets were to get hit, this would be about a 30% trade. But otherwise, I'm expecting the 1,900 satoshi level to be pretty strong resistance. We'll— well, only time will But the way you're gonna wanna use these TP levels is simply to take profit in partials, right? Maybe take 25% here, 25% here, 25% here, maybe 25% here. Just to give you an example, you never wanna— you just wanna take your profit on the way up, right? Don't just let it go up without doing anything. You don't wanna get stopped, you know, stopped out at breakeven or like stopped out after the price has gone up that much. Remember, you don't have to catch the tops and bottoms to make money. As long as you take your profit, you can cycle your your, you know, your profits back into other coins. And ultimately, that is how you grow. But for now, I really want to commend you for watching until this point in the video. I do not think a lot of people would really bother spending 20 minutes watching a video this long, especially because it is probably not as structured as I would like it to be. But if you are here so far, like, hey, congratulations, right? You are ahead. You are doing things that probably 90% of people, that like, they won't do. They would much rather be watching some entertaining videos compared to this. So if you feel like you have learned something so far, and if you appreciate this kind of a long video, let me know in the comment section. But otherwise, may the gains be with you, my friend, and peace.
