In this YouTube market commentary, The Art of Crypto walks through Bitcoin’s daily, 4‑hour and 1‑hour charts to forecast the next seven days of price action surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI release. He explains the concept of “FOMC shenanigans” – a rapid wick to the range high (~$16,900) followed by a retrace into a newly formed bullish order block – and ties this pattern to algorithmic liquidity sweeps. The host outlines how news events act as volatility drivers, using them to time entries rather than predict direction. He details the range structure, defining premium (above the 0.5 midpoint) and discount zones, and shows how smart‑money algorithms buy at discounts and sell at premiums. Specific trade mechanics are provided: entry at the start of the order block, stop at its bottom, and profit targets at the 0.5, 0.618 and possibly 0.705 retracement levels, with projected price targets of $17,350‑$17,600 and a potential ceiling near $17,800. The analysis also monitors the DXY, warning that a reversal in the dollar index should cue profit‑taking. Throughout, he emphasizes risk management, the importance of not chasing false Monday moves, and the mantra “take your profits or the market makers will take them.”
Chapters
So on last week's BTC video, I told you guys on Tuesday that expect this type of move to happen during FOMC, where you'll reach up to the range high here at $16,900, you're gonna wick it pretty quickly, and then you're going to retrace back into the daily bullish order block that has just formed. And that is something that is very common when it comes to days where FOMC is happening or a CPI report is printing. And that is just what I like to call FOMC shenanigans. So after that shenanigans price action, I said price would retrace back into the order block and then continue on in its true direction, which at the time I was saying, yeah, it's probably going to go up to 618. Although in the long term, right, I'm not trying to cover my tracks here, but in the long term I expect it to continue going downwards because of how the DXY is acting like, in the sense that the DXY At the time was pumping and it had just formed a bullish order block. Right now we can see that it is coming straight down. If I do sound a little bit different today, it's because my nose is kind of blocked at the moment, so do pardon me for that. So back to today's Bitcoin analysis, we're going to be doing it primarily on the daily, the 4-hourly, and the 1-hourly because I want to try to project what's going to happen over the next 7 days so that you guys can be prepared for whatever happens and take advantage of Well, anything that happens to make some money. If that sounds interesting to you, let's dive right into it. So just to kick things off, I want to talk about a couple of news events that are going to be happening this week, and these are going to be basically your volatility drivers. They are going to be the catalyst. So like, think about it this way: when you look at the markets, sometimes— a lot of the times— it's very easy to predict direction. Like, I know it's gonna probably go to the 618 or the 705. The problem is that I don't know when it's going to happen. And this is where news events come in, because all the attention is going to be on these news events. People like me and you, as well as the smart money, are going to be taking bets based on, you know, the news events. For example, if the CPI year-over-year report is forecasted to be lower than last year, that is a bullish signal. And because of that, well, you, you know, the markets are going to price themselves in a bullish fashion prior to the CPI. And when it does get released, you know, that's a lot of built-up liquidity that you just take out afterwards. But that's just, you know, that's just how you use news events, right? It's not necessarily, oh, if the CPI is coming today means it's going to go up, or if the CPI is coming today means it's going to go down. No, I'm using news events to predict when things are likely to happen, because direction is easy to get right. When it happens is the real hard part. So back to this website. Thursday is going to be a very important day that you want to keep in mind. If you don't really know what you're doing in terms of trading, then you're going to want to just sit on the sidelines and wait for the CPI report to finish printing basically, because chances are you're gonna get wrecked if you don't know how to take advantage of the FOMC shenanigans like that. And other than that, tomorrow we have, you know, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking, but the key event is going to be on Thursday. Now that that's out of the way, I just wanna talk to you about my target for this long. So last week, if you recall, the reason why I was so confident that, you know, in the very near short term, it's probably gonna go up. Just so that you can understand my thought process behind this trade, I want you to zoom in to The daily chart. Yeah, I know that sounds very contradictory, you know, to zoom into the daily chart, but here's what I want you to look at. Pay attention to this down candle here. Notice how the time when the wick of this candle gets traded above is during this candle here. And the moment this happens, this candle here becomes confirmed as a bullish order block, which means the next time that the price returns back to this area, I'm going to expect this to hold as support. And until like this low gets taken out, basically I'm going to expect it to just keep going up. And that's why at the time I just placed a trade at the beginning of the order block, set my stop at the bottom of the order block, and I said that the first target was going to be here. So you can— you could have taken this as TP1. In fact, I recommended a lot of you to take this as a TP1, but ultimately you will get some sort of range extension to, you know, at least the 0.5 or the 0.618. Now the reason for that is because you need to understand that within every single trading range, which in this case is from this Like from this high to this low here, that's your trading range. Within every single trading range, there is a discount and there is a premium. Premium is just anything that is above equilibrium, and which is 0.5, you know, the mid-range, the midpoint. And a discount is anything below the 0.5. Now, this would be equivalent to me saying, okay, if you buy Bitcoin here, you'd be buying an iPhone for $500. Everyone would probably take that because $500 for an iPhone is a pretty good price. But when the price of any asset goes into a premium zone, it would be like me selling you an iPhone for $2,000, which is very overpriced for an iPhone. And 0.5 is basically market price. It's an iPhone at $1,000, right? Take it or leave it. So the reason why I bring this up is because in any market, in every single market, right, algorithms are the main drivers behind price action. Most of price action that you see on a daily basis is being delivered by algorithms. And these algorithms have sort of a code of conduct amongst themselves, which is if anything spends too long in a discount, they want to rebalance the market, right? They want to keep the market in a state of balance. That's why they want to bring it back up into a premium. And that's why you see these kinds of movements, right? It stays in a premium— sorry, it stays in a discount, goes back into premium, goes back into discount. You know, you get the idea. So the reason I bring this up also is because smart money is going to be buying at a discount and looking to offload it at a premium. So in this case, like, the minimum target is going to be the 0.5, but ideally you're going to want to look to take your profit at the 618 because this would be squarely in premium territory, right? And that's how I came up with this trade in the first place. So is this week going to bring us to this target? I probably think so. The only thing that concerns me is if you look at a 1-hourly chart, or actually, like, let me just visualize this for you. I want you to imagine the range that we were trading at before was from this range low here to this range high here. That's why I had 2 lines over here that depicts the range. And currently you have just traded above the range, uh, quite convincingly actually. But here's the thing about ranges is that most of the time when you trade above a range high and when you trade above, like below range low, that tends to be range deviation. Even though it looks quite convincing that, you know, it's going to the upside, this is still a deviation. And the thing about deviations is that it always returns back to the mean. And in this case, the mean would be somewhere around $17K. So here's what my prediction is going to be this week. Like, Monday's move is always false, right? Whatever happens today, like, given that today is the upside, Tuesday is probably going to reverse this move just for a little bit, right, to fill in some kind of area of value. In this case, I'll be looking at this fair value gap here, or even that order block over here. So basically, so I would be looking at either that fair value gap over there or this bullish order block over here. So tomorrow, expect some kind of a retracement back into either one of these levels, where you can then take advantage of the opportunity to go long targeting 0.5 or even the 0.618. And that's going to be my weekly projection for Bitcoin. And if we go into the one-hourly chart, that does add up in the in the sense that you do have a very nice fair value gap over here. And I know there are a lot of relatively equal lows over here on the one-hourly chart. But here's the thing that I'm struggling with, right? So Monday's moves are always false moves. False move Monday. So expect Tuesday to reverse some portion of this move, or even it could happen tonight during the New York session, or even during the London close. But expect some kind of this move to get reversed and then to fill in some kind of further gap or just some kind of imbalance. The only problem is I don't know if it's going to fill this in and continue upwards. Honestly, I think that is the higher probability scenario. If by some off chance you get a liquidity sweep of these lows here at 16 $1,900, then that is going to be another long opportunity for you to take before price hits over to $618. So as you can see right now, I'm just preparing you for every single scenario that might happen. But yeah, to go back to the original point, I do think that this week we are going to see at least $17,350 or up to $17,600. Um, I'm not going to place my bets really high for this one, but if it does go to $17,800, then that's when you're going to want to look For signs that the market makers want to bring the price lower so that you can sell this. But otherwise, this is the weekly projection for Bitcoin. Before I end this off, I just want you guys to pay attention to the DXY as well. If the DXY is showing signs that it wants to start reversing, for example, you get— you start getting higher highs and higher lows, then that's going to be a sign where you're going to want to just offload your Bitcoin, especially if Bitcoin just happens to be at the 618 or even the 705. Remember, market makers will always buy and accumulate at a discount. And then offload their positions at a premium. Retail traders are the people who will either buy in the premium expecting it to go higher, or buying in the discount, and then when it does go into a premium, retail traders are the exact type of traders that are going to be thinking, oh, it went up so much already, imagine if I just held on for like 2 more weeks, my profit would double. It doesn't work that way. So there's this quote I really like to say, take your profits or the market makers will take it from you. Or in other words, which is another favorite of mine, which is if your trade looks good enough to screenshot, it's good enough to take profit. So trade like the market makers, don't trade like retail dumb money, and take your profits. Okay, nothing goes straight up forever, nothing goes straight down forever. If Bitcoin continues to go higher, then you can always just re-enter at a later opportunity. But when the profits show themselves to you, and especially if the DXY is starting to reverse Not guaranteed, but if it does, then that's your cue to take all your profits. Bye-bye.
