Failed Support, Bearish Signals: What’s Next for WIF?

What's up, welcome to another WIF update. Since the last video that I made on WIF, price has broke below the value area which was supposed to hold as strong support, broke below the value area low, tried to accept back into the value area by going to the mid-range of the value area, but this was a failed acceptance because you did again break below the value area low, came back to flip this into— well, flip this potential support into resistance, and boom, off you go. Now you are towards the downside. So in this video, I'm going to give you an update on WIF. What is the situation? Are we still going to go up, or, you know, is this the start of a big downtrend, and what are the potential scenarios to keep in mind. Now, the first thing I want to touch on is the mindset that some of you are having towards these videos. Now, whatever I'm painting out here is just giving you guys the highest probability areas and the highest probability scenarios that could happen. Now, just like in every single one of my videos, I always give, you know, multiple scenarios, if-then statements. You know, if price breaks above here, comes back, flip this into support, and, you know, doesn't break below here, then, you know, you want to place your stop loss here and you want to target a new all-time high for WIF. Now, there is also a bearish scenario where this becomes a failed breakout, which I did mention. Failed breakout, you accept back into the value area, and then in this case you want to look for the value area high to short down to the value area low. This was also another scenario. And some of you— not gonna name any names, and in fact I'm not even saying this to trash talk you guys or whatever— it's just a mindset that you need to have if you want to be successful at trading, which is first of all, it's all about scenarios, and second of all, the only thing that's certain about the financial markets is that nothing is ever certain. Like, we are always at all times playing with probabilities here. There is no such thing as a 100%, okay, if I think this is strong support, it is 100% going to hold because there are so many other factors that we are not able to comprehend. For example, you have the Federal Reserve, you have macroeconomic factors, you have some news catalysts, AI agents, who knows, you could even have a black swan event. There is like, we are always in a state of incomplete information. And because of that, while we can make a prediction that this area is, let's say, 70% of the time going to hold based on past factors and current knowledge that we have, there is still a 30% chance where this doesn't play out, which is why we put a stop loss on every trade. A stop loss essentially acts as an invalidation, right? And the way that we place our stop loss— and I've talked about this many times in past videos before— the best way to place a stop loss is just add an area of invalidation. For example, if I'm expecting this value area to hold as support, probably if this breaks below the value area, like if it goes below the value area low, my thesis that this is going to hold as really strong support is probably wrong. In fact, it is very likely to be wrong. And in this case, I'm going to protect my downside because I made a bet on this, and if it breaks below here, I've lost the bet. Okay, fine, I'm just going to take the loss instead of sitting through, you know, another 2 weeks of like price being in the red from my entry. Again, it's all about playing probabilities here. The moment you start getting married to a certain idea of what the market is supposed to do instead of painting out multiple scenarios so that you're ready For whatever scenario happens, and then once that scenario happens, you just read and react. For example, if you come here, like if you come back to the previous value area high and you start bouncing really hard, you on the lower time frame such as the one hourly or the fifteen minute, specifically the one hourly, you start seeing market structure form higher highs and higher lows. Then boom, right? Your thesis is correct. At that point, you enter the markets. But if you see that price bounce here and boom, right breaks into the value area. Oop. Now you got to start being a little bit concerned. Definitely have your stop loss there, right? There's no reason why you should be down like 20-30% from the entry and still have your position open, especially if you're on leverage. You're just going to get screwed because for the majority of people, you're using anywhere between 5 to 10 to potentially even 20x leverage. Even on 5x leverage, at this point you would be stopped out already. So guys, it's like mindset. There's a reason why I always paint multiple scenarios, both bearish and bullish. In fact, bullish, I might pay multiple. Bearish, I might pay multiple. Because it's not really about predicting the future. It's more about just being prepared for whatever scenario happens. And then we can just have a plan instead of being caught off guard. Like, if this, then that. And most importantly, like, you gotta have a stop loss. This is the reason why I always give you guys an invalidation point with whatever trade ideas that I'm sharing in these videos. But again, if there's one thing you take away from the rant of the last 5 minutes, it's Thinking in probabilities, guys. Like, for example, like, let's just give you an example from poker. Most of you have probably played poker before. You know that pocket aces are one of the best hands that is possible. Like, before any of the cards come out, if you have pocket aces, meaning 2 aces in your hand, you have an 80% chance of winning, well, that round. Whatever comes out, you have again an 80% chance, but it is not unassailable because there is still 1 out of 5 times where you are going to lose. The player that starts thinking in terms of certainties instead of probabilities when it comes to poker is the player that, you know, gets married an idea and eventually he's gonna just, you know, lose everything. And the reason why I bring up poker is because poker, trading, very similar. We are always in a state where we have incomplete information. With poker, for example, you do not know what the hands of your opponents are. So you also don't know what the next card is going to be, like if you're doing the turn and the river. And so you always have some pieces of knowledge that you do not know, which is why you cannot accurately calculate the probabilities. You cannot say for certain, okay, in this case I have a 98.4% chance of winning. You don't, you simply don't. Same with trading. There's so much information out there. There's so many variables that can affect the financial markets. For example, if the hurricane hits New York right now, for example, yeah, you know, price might— price is probably going to go down because New York is a major financial center. And yeah, price has a potential to just start dumping. You might think, hey, New York hasn't— like, a hurricane hitting New York has nothing to do with crypto. Yeah, true. But again, can you be 100% sure that you have considered every possible, you know, variable and be absolutely certain in your statement that it is not going to be affected? Cannot. Which is why, again, thinking probabilities. There is an exceptional book that you can read about this. It is written by a former world champion of poker who also happens to have been studying behavioral psychology for like 2 or 3 decades. So it just goes a lot into the art of decision-making when you do not have all the information. Honestly, if you're a trader, this is a must-read book. It will help your trading process out by a lot. So now that that rant is over, it's time to get into WIF, which is what's going to happen next on Taking a look at the lower timeframes for hourly chart, price has broken below the value area, right? As I've said before, so this means that at the moment this is going to act as future resistance until proven otherwise. Ultimately, we still want to see price do a strong movement back into the value area. Ideally, you break back into the value area, and the ideal bonus scenario is for price to come back down, find support at the previous value area low, and this is where that's going to act as a launch pad for price to break above the value area. This will be scenario number 2, right? This is going to be much higher probability because you already have proof that, hey, the value area low is holding as support. Currently you have broken above. So again, when it comes to a breakout, there are only 2 possible scenarios when it comes to breakouts. The first of which is that you break out, you fail the breakout, you break into the value area, get rejected at the value area high, and boom, you know, you oscillate back to the other side of the value area. Second scenario would be that you break out above the value area You successfully retest the previous value area high as resistance, just like what you did here with testing this as resistance. This becomes support. So resistance flips into support. This is where you place your bet and boom, right? Now again, the reason why I say bet— what is the definition of a bet? Is when you risk something, usually some money, based on the outcome of a future event. It is an act of risking a sum of money on the outcome of a future event. Now we don't know what that outcome is going to be, but You know, a good bet is when you have the probabilities in your favor instead of against you, and so that becomes a good probability bet. But as of right now, here's how current price action is developing. At the moment, you are forming a range. Now, one thing that you need to understand about the market is that it always moves from periods of high volatility to low volatility, high volatility, and you start ranging. So recently, we just went through a high volatility move towards the downside. Currently, you are ranging. Now, the beautiful thing about ranges is that first of all, You're forming a new value area here. And the wonderful thing about all of this is that you're forming this new value area at a previous imbalance. So if you take a look at price from this entire point here, there is not much volume to go around here. In fact, if we go into the daily chart, this is probably going to become a little bit more clear. So what's interesting is that the value area is currently being formed at a previous value area. If you take a look at this, this is the previous value area where you have quite a bit of volume. And the fact that you are forming A new range right above this value area means that this is likely to hold the support. At least this is what price is telling us at the moment. Now, what you really do not want to see is for price to continue breaking lower below this range and then start getting, you know, rejected off of the previous value area high, which at the moment is sitting at $2.70. If you see that happening, that's a really bad sign because again, it'll be a repeat of what you saw with this value area. You break below, you start accepting back into the previous value area, get rejected off of the value area high, and then boom, right? You're going to oscillate to the other side. In this case, you're very likely going to oscillate back towards the point of control. Now, the point of control, which is the orange line here, is essentially just the point where the highest amount of volume is being transacted over the last 500 candle period. This volume profile is being done on the last 500 4-hourly candles. Now, just to use layman's terms, this is the point where the most market participants believe that this price here is fair value for WIF. So if you happen to return back here, this is again proven to be a very high probability support line. Not to say that this is completely unassailable, but based on the data that we have from the last 500 4-hourly candles on WIF, this is likely to hold as support. So if you do end up accepting back into the value area, getting rejected, this is a cue for you to potentially take a short down to this area here before taking a long or building your longs at around this area. So that would be scenario number 2. Now again, you will not know which scenario plays out unless you have some certain criteria for this to happen. And for the criteria for this to happen, we're going to be using the 4-hourly chart. I want you to pay attention to these 2 swing points right here. This is on the 4-hourly chart, okay? The first one is the high at 2.928, and the second is going to be the low at 2.635. Now, if price breaks below this 4-hourly low with a 4-hourly candle close, right, that means the candle body closes below this area, not just a wick, okay? We want to see a candle body close. This will signify that price is indeed bearish and that you want to start looking for shorts in This area here in the value area right here. So this, a four-hourly candle close, right? That would be your confirmation that hey, more likely than not, price is bearish. And in terms of the bullish confirmation, you want to take a look at this swing high here because recently you have just swept this range low. So if I had to place some probabilities on which scenario is more likely to happen, probably the bullish one because again, you've just swept liquidity. Anybody that went that would have set their stop loss underneath this level would be stopped out at this point. In this event. If you start making an aggressive move to break this high after sweeping liquidity, this will be known as a broken base. Now, a broken base is a liquidity sweep followed by a strong break of structure. This is one of the highest probability entry models that you can use to catch bottoms and even to catch high probability areas within a trend. This has nothing to do with the value area. Now again, notice what I'm doing here. I am not just basing it off of like one little, you know, factor. I'm trying to layer as much confluence as possible into this trade so that again, we're playing the probabilities. As long as we're taking the high probability move every single time, the odds are going to play out over the long term. So will be a confirmed break of structure above this swing high. Now the play is going to be waiting for some kind of retracement from— let's assume for a moment that if we get a bullish scenario, let's say the new swing high on the 4-hourly chart forms here, break above here, you're either going to use this previous level as, you know, resistance turned into support, so something like this, to break back into the value area. Again, this is another potential entry, and once more over there. So this is 1, 2, 3 entry points. Now the 4th one is going to be drawing a fib from this low to this high, wherever the high forms, by the way. Like if it forms here, then it's gonna be there. If it forms here, it's gonna be there. Well, no, it cannot form there 'cause then it hasn't broke above the high. But once that high forms, you're going to look for price to return back below the 0.5 line. Now in every trading range, underneath the 0.5 is what you call discount zone. And the best way for me to explain that is that if I were to sell you an iPhone, brand new iPhone 15 Pro Max right now for $200, you're probably gonna buy it. In fact, you would be stupid not to buy it because even if you don't use the phone for yourself, if you just sell it to someone else for like $500, which is still a discount, you're making a profit on that. And this is what the institutional players, this is what the smart traders are doing. They're waiting for price to come into a discount zone within any given trading range. For example, within a larger picture trading range, let's say from this low to this high, price is currently in a discount, which means that in terms of the macro, right, there's always a bigger range Like whatever range that you're trading in right now, there's always a bigger range. Although you never want to zoom too far out because then it can become irrelevant. In this case, we are definitely in a macro discount zone that makes sense for us, that is actually relevant for us. So this will be a micro range where whatever high you form here, wait for price to return back into discount. Ideally, you should pair this, or rather you should layer this with some confluences of order blocks, fair value gaps, some kind of liquidity sweep, whatever it is. If you can find another point of confluence around this area between the 0. 0.618 or the 0.705, that's going to be an ideal entry to get into WIF, and this will be the bullish scenario. Anyways guys, I understand that crypto can be overwhelming and it can be tough to find information out there that you can take advantage of to get into projects early. The good news is that I'm writing a free alpha report every day where I'm sending some valuable piece of information that you can use to start making money in crypto, and the best part is it's absolutely free. So if you want to get access to the AOC Alpha Report, it's the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'm going to see you guys in the next video. Bye-bye.