Here's Where You Should Start Buying Bitcoin/Crypto
In this video, The Art of Crypto addresses the current panic in crypto markets, focusing on Bitcoin’s sharp decline and the liquidation risk posed by Celsius and other leveraged players. He explains how a potential liquidation price for Celsius could trigger further downside, but argues that buying opportunities exist around $17‑$18k, recommending the use of stablecoins like USDC for purchases. The presenter walks through several technical tools—mean reversion channels, the 200‑week moving average, and Fibonacci‑derived discount levels—to identify historical buying zones and potential bottoms. He also cites Rektor Capital’s cycle‑timing analysis, suggesting a roughly 365‑day bear‑to‑bull cycle that could see an uptrend resuming by November 2022. Throughout, he emphasizes risk management, advising viewers to avoid panic selling, survive the volatility, and adopt a long‑term perspective, while promising future content on proper investing strategies.
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What's up everybody? Today's video is a little bit earlier and that's because of what's happening in the crypto markets at the moment. And I understand that there is widespread panic out there at the moment and that's why, you know, hopefully we're going to try to alleviate some of those concerns in this video. Now it is very hard to catch the bottom like we did during the last time when we caught the bottom at about $25K. Now I would have assumed that based on Bitcoin against USDC, after you hit $24.4K as stated in yesterday's video, you form some kind of a bottom. But at the moment, it's still going straight down, and immediately you have to wonder, why is this happening? Like, why is it going straight down without any form of relief? And I think the answer to that question can lie in Celsius. So this is currently Celsius's wallet at the moment. Celsius, for those who don't know, is a pretty big crypto project that has a lot of people's money in it, and it's the new hot thing at the moment because it is reminiscent of what happened with Luna just a month ago. And just as a comparison, The last time Luna happened, we dropped 40% on Bitcoin in 7 days. And at the moment, throughout the last 7 days, we have dropped so far 33.4%, which is very similar in terms of scale to the Luna crash. Now, the reason why I bring up Celsius is because, well, they are, they are adding lots and lots of margin, but that's not the thing that we're worried about here. The thing that we want to look for is the liquidation price of Celsius, which means that if Bitcoin price were to hit this exact price right here, assuming they do not keep adding collateral, which they are at the moment, they are adding a lot of collateral. Assuming that Bitcoin price hits this level right here, then all of this money is going to be gone essentially, right? Hundreds and hundreds of millions worth of liquidations. And this is just one company. Now I want you to imagine how many other companies out there are heavily invested into Bitcoin and other crypto assets with leverage. And when you think about that, it can be really scary to know that maybe these market makers are trying to go for the liquidation prices, Before they, you know, allow the price to bounce. Now, is that likely? Honestly, I have no clue. But what I do know is that if price were to go back to $17,000 or even $18,000, it is just going to be a quick wick, just like how it was with this one right here at $25K. Notice how quickly the price bounced back up. It is just going to be a quick wick. So if you want to catch the quote-unquote bottom without, you know, DCA, you know, without dollar cost averaging at any of these levels right here, which at the moment I'm doing, by the way. I just bought some at $22,000. Now, it's not going to be the bottom, but it is still a good price nonetheless. And I'm comfortable with the fact that I'm not going to catch the exact bottom until it gets to about $17,000-$18,000. So if you want to catch very close to the exact bottom, then that's the price that you're going to want to place some orders at. And my recommendation to you would be to place the order against USDC. You don't want to do this against USDT because all of you know what happened during the last Luna crash where USDT lost its peg against, well, the dollar, where it No longer was equal to one dollar. So in that scenario, you want to use a coin, a stable coin that is well much more stable, which is USDC. You can use BUSD, you know stuff like that. But the second thing that I wanted to talk about, which you can probably already see on the screen already, is this indicator right here. Now this is called the mean reversion channels, and the mean reversion channels is essentially well it's an indicator built on math. And the reason why I bring this one up is because I want you to take a look at every single instance when Bitcoin price has hit, you know, the bottom mean reversion band. It has always led to some kind of aggressive just rebound back to the upside. Now, this time could be different because market conditions are definitely different, but I wanna show you proof that indeed, if you take a look at the mean reversion channels, even when accounted for bear markets, it has been very, very good at timing bear market bottoms. Now, Are we in a bear market at the moment? Well, some would say yes, some would say no. Either way, I think most would say that times are bad at the moment and times are very bearish. So during those last 2 examples that I showed you here, price, you know, did not spend very long at the bottom band at all, except for this single instance here where price spent a total of 30 days below the bottom band before rebounding to form a bull market top. Now, fun fact, price has not actually went this deep into the mean reversion bands since the March 2020 crash of you know, every single market out there. And this was very short-lived. Well, that was obviously an anomaly, so we're not going to consider that as an example. But the last time we were this deep into, well, the mean reversion bands was back in 2018. So at the moment, currently, the odds say, statistically speaking at least, that we are at historical buying prices at the moment. So I don't think this is a time where, you know, you should panic. I mean, yeah, there is a lot of pain. I understand that. I'm affected. Everyone is affected as long as people have crypto. Only the people who are in cash at the moment are not affected. But that is not to say that you should panic and sell everything at these ridiculously low prices. Now, am I saying that prices are just going to rebound immediately after hitting, you know, the so-called bottom? No. In fact, you don't even need to catch bottoms in order to make money because oftentimes the only thing that the bottom signifies is the end to the volatility, which means that after the volatility ends, you're gonna have a period of just, you know, consolidation and chop such as this. So the next thing I wanted to bring up was use the weekly chart because at the moment you can see that price is— if I just remove the mean reversion channel, you can see that price at the moment is sitting right at this line right here, which is the 200-week moving average. Now this is a really good indicator for, well, basically historical buying prices because you can see every single time we have touched the 200-week moving average, it has signified some kind of a major historical bottom For example, right here. And the only time that we have really wicked below the 200-week moving average was back in 2020, March. And for that, we only spent about 1 week or even just a few days there. So currently we are at the same spot at the moment. So I would like— it's just good prices to be buying at the moment. So seriously, if there's anything you do at the moment, selling should not be one of them. And interestingly enough, you can just take a look at this range right here, which I drew out with the premium and discount, you know, sign where basically if I just draw a fib from this swing low right there to that swing high, which you could say is from quote unquote the previous market bottom to the current market top, you can see that the 0.5, right, currently we are very deep into a discounted price at the moment. And currently we are sitting at the 0.705, and the 0.786 happens to sit at about $18,000, which happens to sort of, sort of, you know, kind of line up with the the market bottom that we were looking for. But either way, if you are scared currently and you do not have much money to play with, my recommendation is simply to just watch from the sidelines because you really do not need to catch the exact bottom in order to make money, in order to make really good money. So the best thing to do currently is just to survive because you're going to get another opportunity in order to buy in at these prices even if you miss the bottom. Because remember what I said about, you know, extended consolidations. Now there was another piece of information that I wanted to talk to you guys about, and full All credit goes to Rektor Capital. Well, this is his newsletter essentially. So if you guys want to sign up for this newsletter, he is a very good macro analyst in terms of the crypto markets. And he always likes to do these analysis based on a very, very long timeframe. So if we take a look at this, the time from the cycle top to the cycle bottom on average, right? On average, we can expect it to take about 365 days. And the last time it happened was during the March 2020 crash, which is 274 days. But we don't really want to consider the March 2020 crash as a bear market bottom. So assuming that it takes 365 days, then we could be expecting some kind of a, you know, back to an uptrend in November 2022 instead of September 2022. So just as a timeline of how much time you have to be able to buy at these heavily discounted prices, you could still do it until November 2022. But either way, you know, even if you don't catch the bottom, I hope that this video has given you some kind of an insight into where a potential bottom could come at, because currently there is a lot of, a lot of panic in the markets at the moment. If you sell here, you know, chances are you're going to miss out on a pretty big rebound. It's not going to be, you know, massive, like back to $30K or $35K, but I think a rebound back to $27K or even $28K is not off the books. But my sincere advice to all of you is, because you survived the bad times, you're gonna have the capital to, you know, really take advantage of the good times. So remember, like seriously, 90% of the people in like financial markets period are losing, right? They're losing money. They're not profitable. They're not having a good time essentially. And if you can just survive, right? Which means that if you do just do not lose money, you're already ahead of 90% of those people. Now I understand that there is a lot of pain going on at the moment and trust me, I've been there many, many times in the past, but persevere, right? These markets are here to stay. Crypto is going to revolutionize the world in 5, 10, 20 years, but we are currently very early into this technology. Think about it this way, right? All the people who quit during this time right here, during this time right here, right? Where did they end up? You always hear about the story of the guy who bought a piece of pizza with like 10,000 bitcoins back in 2010 or something, and you don't want to be that guy, right? So If you made a mistake and you lost money, hey, it's cool. Everyone's been there. It's the markets. You win some, you lose some. Sometimes you win some, you lose a lot. That's fine. But the most important thing is think about it this way, right? Think positively. The fact that you have lost all this money, or maybe you have made this mistake now early on in your career, then the next, you know, 10, 20, 30, 40 years, you've essentially learned a lesson that will keep you making money over the next Decade, like a few decades. So this is not meant to be motivational or anything. It's just I've been through this. I understand the pain, but perseverance always pays off. And most importantly, if you made the mistake once this time by not having much cash, or maybe you were overexposed, or maybe you were invested very heavily in very sketchy altcoins or stuff like that, you know, I'm gonna make videos about how to invest properly. That's gonna come in the next week or two. But if you've made this mistake once currently, hey, It's fine. That happens. Learn from it. Don't let it happen again. For now, if you appreciate this video and you want to show that you have been here, you know, through the entire video, I want you to comment down in the comment section BTN for bottom, and hopefully we can find a bottom sometime soon for Bitcoin. I don't know when that's going to happen, but given the volatility currently that is happening at, I would say that it probably will not be long until it hits. Well, you can see that on Bitcoin Volatility Index at the moment, it is very close to 12 again, and If you can take a look at the last time the volatility stopped, which is exactly the bottom. When it hit the bottom, it was at 12 points. So currently we are already at 9.54 points. So I would say it's going to come to a close soon. So definitely pay attention to this chart right here. And I actually just recorded a video on how to use this tool in order to catch perfect tops and bottoms yesterday, and that video is going to be coming out in the next few days. So definitely stay tuned for that. For now, may the gains be with you, my friends. Bye-bye.
