How I Predict the Markets and Momentum Trade

What's up everybody, welcome back to another market update. So recently we had a pretty big move on Bitcoin, and in this video we're going to discuss what's next and give you my take on what's going on in the markets. So first of all, there are a couple things that I do want to talk about. This was inspired by a call I did with the members of my inner circle, and these 2 things will help you way more than any of the quote-unquote price predictions that I'm going to make in this video, because this directly helps you with your mindset. And I'll give you an actionable system that you can use to ensure that even though you miss Like this, you'll still be able to make a profit. I at least wanted to deliver this value to you guys first before we start getting into the price predictions. So let's get into a question that a lot of you might be asking at the moment, which is, given that we pumped basically by $5K overnight, which for Bitcoin is pretty huge— on altcoins you're seeing way bigger moves across the board, but for Bitcoin in particular, this is a pretty good move— and a question a lot of you might have at this point is, was there a way that you could have predicted this pump or seen this pump coming at the very least? This is where I'm going to start getting into the mindset of how you should approach this. Because we're all traders, and sure, all of us are going to be looking for an edge by analyzing the markets and trying to predict the next move. But the fact of the matter is that at the end of the day, all we can do is utilize all of our resources to the best of our ability to try to determine where the market's going to move next and try to take a trade based on that direction. So now, just to give you an example, I actually called this trade here to my Discord where I was calling for a long on Bitcoin on this trade. Granted, I actually went half risk on this trade because of a pretty good reason, that in macro side of things at the time. If you were to look on the higher time frames, you've actually been just going into a downtrend, and over here you just swept the liquidity. So there was a pretty good chance that you would have came back down. And but still, a trade is a trade, and I thought it was worthwhile trying it there. I actually got proven wrong pretty quickly, but that's just a part of the game. Like, losses are pretty normal. But what I want to get into next is the fact that I was actually expecting the market to come sweep these lows here first before any kind of significant up move. As you can see, That didn't happen, which is the reason why I missed this entire move here. And the moral of the story is that I used all of the systems, the frameworks, the resources, and the information that I had to make a prediction or to make a reading, to make an analysis to the best of my ability. Now, as for whether or not I am correct or if I'm wrong, doesn't really matter. I'm sure that you're gonna see quite a lot of people out there gloating over the fact that they managed to predict this move. And that's a good thing. Hopefully, if you watch their videos or if you watch their content or if you read their content, they'll be sharing their thought process with you. What I want you to understand is that fundamentally speaking, there is zero chance that you'll be able to predict every move and to catch every move. Now internally, we tend to notice like, duh, it makes sense. Like nobody's gonna be able to capture all these moves, but our actions do not reflect that because the moment we see some trader saying, oh, you know, I predicted this move here, we start to learn their system or like we start to look into what indicators that they're using because maybe that is the secret fancy little trick that allowed them to predict this move. When in reality, sure, they might have predicted this move, But maybe your system predicted this move and maybe your system was profitable during this move here, but their system was not. The thing is, like, the grass is not greener on the other side. I might not have seen this move coming, but I was able to see this move coming, for example. And I was able to see this move coming, for example. Just be comfortable with the idea that at every time you can use, you can try to make an analysis to the best of your ability, you're not gonna always be right and that's fine. Which also leads me onto my second point, which is the fact that the moment The markets pump like this. 90% of you that are watching this video at the moment are going to have some kind of feeling that, you know, you're too late, that the market's already pumped and that you shouldn't be buying up here. You think that price at the moment is expensive. And that's also the wrong way to think about it because believe it or not, the fact that the markets have pumped straight up like this and confirmed a change of trend on your higher timeframes is exactly the best time to be trading or to be buying at the moment. Even though it's already pumped by $5K, this is a way better time to buy compared to trying to catch falling knives and trying to predict the bottom. All the way down at 57k, which leads me on to point number two, which is momentum trading is believe it or not the most valuable skill when you're inside a bull market. Let me explain. I might have missed the entire 5k pump, but what I was able to do is to take a trade following framework number three of my trading system, which you can get step by step taught to you that you can copy and paste inside the AOC Alpha Group. But following that system, I simply took this trade because I identified a range low, a range high. The range low was swept. The moment I saw it pumping, I just entered, placed the stop below the wick of the liquidity sweep, and targeted this high here. Now, is this an amazing trade compared to a 5K move? No, but still, that's a 3-hour trade and I'll take that any day of the week. And more importantly, this is a trade where I went long when price has just pumped by 5K. Now, here's the thing that you need to understand about the markets. There's no such thing as expensive or cheap. There is only uptrend and there's only downtrend. 90% of your trading problems can actually be boiled down to the fact that you did not read the trend correctly, meaning You might be going long when the market is in a downtrend, which is why, for example, over here when I tried to go long, price just dumped afterwards, as well as going short when the market is in an uptrend. Remember, in essence, most of your problems can be attributed to countertrend trading. Now then, it's important to ask the question, why do people countertrend trade? That's because most people tend to have the notion the market has pumped straight up, it has to come back down because it's quote unquote expensive. That word does not exist in the market. Again, uptrend, there is only uptrend and there's only downtrend. And if the market is in an uptrend, you simply buy high. And you sell higher. And if the market is in a downtrend, you simply sell low and buy lower. If you understand just this one concept alone, you will be successful in this crypto bull market. In fact, it is the complete opposite side of the spectrum. The people that have really high IQs and try to overanalyze into everything and try to explain every movement in crypto, they are the ones that usually don't make any money by the end of it. I'm sure you've been there before where like you just get into paralysis by analysis. Like you're trying to make sense of all of these pumps. Like, oh, you know, Dogecoin is at $50 billion market cap. That's not supposed to be the case. Like, it's, it's a dogecoin. It doesn't make sense. It cannot be at $50 billion market cap. Like, just to put that into reference, the cost it takes to solve world hunger for a year is $20 billion according to UN estimates. Dogecoin's market cap alone at some point was enough to feed the world for literally 3 or 4 years in a row. It doesn't make sense. But here's the thing, trying to apply rational reasoning to an irrational market is one of the dumbest things that you can do. It doesn't make sense and it's not supposed to be. Just take crypto as what it is, which is a vehicle for you to make money and a vehicle for especially the people who are able to turn off your brains, just be able to buy when it's going up and sell when it's coming down, those are the people that win. And so because of that, momentum trading is one of the most important skills and one of the most profitable skills that you can have in a bull market. Do not be afraid to buy high and sell higher. In fact, one of the ways that you can use to determine that is to actually just zoom out. If you look at the markets for the past 2 months, all it's been doing is putting lower lows and lower highs. This is the first time in a while where things are starting to take a change. And sure, it might have went up by $5K, but That's nothing compared to the $100K or the 100% that it's going to go up by. And this is just Bitcoin, by the way. If you're looking at altcoins, I'm fully confident that if we start going into an uptrend right now, like a proper, proper uptrend, you will see the crypto markets, like any coin that you buy at this point is just going to go up by a factor of 10x up to 20x if you make some good plays and potentially a 50x move if you do make a really good play. Now, should that be the expectation that, you know, you come to expect from the markets? No, but I'm saying that a 10x is a very reasonable estimate of how your money could grow over the next 6 to 7 months if the market were to go back into an uptrend. But just to continue carrying on with my point, if you were to zoom out, you can see that not only is the market starting to shift into an uptrend, but you're also kind of seeing some kind of inverse heads and shoulders at the moment. And that's a really, really good sign. When everyone out there on Twitter is calling for, I don't know, $52K, whatever, like sure, There might be a world where that happens, but you shouldn't discount the fact that we're still in a bull market. And in a bull market, we wanna buy. We don't wanna be scared. Believe it or not, a bull market favors the bold, people who are able to turn off their brain and just make some degen plays. That's usually why you see all these 17, 15-year-old kids that outperform all of these 200 IQ traders in a bull market, simply because it's just the nature of a bull market. It's irrational. It's not supposed to make sense. And that's why we shouldn't try to make sense of it and just go with the flow. So now that I've talked to you about those 2 concepts, hopefully you've gained something really valuable from this video outside of a price prediction. But now let's actually get into a price prediction. So I think just by watching the video alone, you probably already have a pretty good sense of what I'm about to say. I mean, I've been talking about this for, you know, ever since, you know, we started coming down here, that I was already 80-90% in. And if the markets were to come down, great, I can get stopped out at breakeven and buy lower. If the market goes up, it's all a part of my plan. And hopefully some of you have followed my advice. advice and are up significantly at the moment. And if you're curious about the specific coins that I'm investing in, I highly recommend you follow me on Twitter or join the AOC Alpha group where I'm sharing all of my plays, and not just mine but my coaches as well who are exceptional traders. But moving back to the video, again, if you zoom out and look at it from a macro perspective, this is the start of a potential shift in market structure. Potential. Now the signs do add up. The fact that we have spent almost a month after the halving already in some kind of a range is actually a really good sign. The fact that you've swept the range low are now trying to move up back to the range high is also a really good sign. Now, does that mean that you should just ape everything into the markets at the moment? No. Now, the best time to buy was actually around here. Of course, nobody could have predicted that, you know, this was indeed the bottom. Like, sure, there are half— half the traders on Twitter might have predicted this, but again, going back to what I talked about before about the mindset, you shouldn't— everyone's system is different, every trader thinks differently, every trader sees Differently. And because of that, you shouldn't try to learn some other system just because you see, you know, that they've predicted this move when you don't see the amount of failures that they've had trying to predict other moves. So the best time to buy would have been here. Obviously, that is in hindsight already. We're here now. So how should you navigate current market conditions is the better question to ask. And the way to answer that is very simple. Similar to the advice that I gave you guys 2 weeks ago about scaling into the markets, do not make more than, say, 1 or 2 moves every week in terms of investments. Again, If I am right, this is the start of some kind of a reversal uptrend, which is a really, really bullish sign. You will likely see one last retracement, hopefully, fingers crossed, which will be the perfect time to get into. So something like this would be the best. And as for exactly what price to look out for, draw a fib and we'll be looking at roughly $63K to about $62K. That would be the price to look out for. If we do get that, great. Make sure you position yourself there. The second best price would be around $61K or like $60.6K after you get liquidity sweep. of this low here before moving upwards. That is also a potential scenario. But no matter how high the market goes, as long as it hasn't hit, you know, $71K, you're actually not too late. Again, remember what I talked about before, buy high and sell higher. Just ensure that you're not putting in 100% of your account into the markets at any given point. That is the mistake that gets a lot of people burned. Instead, what you should do is maybe allocate 10 to 20% of your account every week or every couple of weeks into coins that you think are good. Which, by the way, if you want a list of all of the coins that I'm investing into, which I believe will outperform the markets. It's written neatly in a document that you can find in the AOC Alpha Group, or otherwise just invest in whatever coins that you think will perform well. And if the markets were to go down, great, you didn't put all of your eggs into one basket all at the same time. So you should have some free capital to buy in even more. So perhaps 10% to 20% here, 10-20% there, 10-20% there. You, you get the point. And the keyword here is just scaling in. Be smart with your decisions, be smart with your money. Obviously going all in all at once is a really stupid idea. But yeah, in summary, The best place to buy would be between 63 to 62K. A potential scenario would be around 60.6, and a very doomsday-like scenario would actually be 58.3. But at this point, I wouldn't actually buy here. If the market were to come all the way down here, it just means that, you know, this uptrend here is just a fake out, and this inverse heads and shoulders formation is absolutely just BS. The market is actually going to go lower from here. So do ensure that you set some kind of stop losses around this area. It's my genuine recommendation. But otherwise, things are actually looking good. This is the start of a potential uptrend that will lead the markets 10-20x higher. And it's a really exciting time to be in crypto at the moment. Don't sleep on this opportunity. You are looking at a potential 6 to 7 months of uptrend that will absolutely make you life-changing money. If you're not prepared yet, make sure you are. If you want a place that can help you prepare for this, you know where to go. But otherwise, I'll still be sharing valuable content on Twitter and YouTube. So make sure you stay subscribed. But until then, trade safe and may the gains be with you, my friend. Bye-bye.