How To Accurately Predict Where Price Will Head To Next

In this instructional video, The Art of Crypto explains how to use key price levels to determine higher‑timeframe market bias. The presenter first distinguishes two categories of key levels: (1) significant key levels, which are used to predict the market’s direction over weeks or months, and (2) execution‑based key levels, which are only relevant for trade entry on lower timeframes. He outlines strict rules for identifying significant levels – they must be prior highs or lows, equal highs/lows, or Spaceman BTC levels – and stresses that only 4‑6 such levels should be plotted to avoid chart clutter. The method for selecting these levels involves three steps: (a) the most recent breakout (price taken out), (b) the closest relevant high or low, and (c) a further macro‑target low or high. The video also clarifies the difference between external and internal structure, emphasizing that significant levels belong to the external structure of the price swing. Concepts such as inducement (market makers creating equal highs/lows to lure traders) and liquidity sweeps are introduced to explain why certain levels are more likely to be respected. The presenter demonstrates the approach on a 4‑hour chart of the Australian dollar, marking recent breakouts, close‑relevant highs/lows, and long‑term targets, and then states the resulting higher‑timeframe bias (a bullish expectation to take out lower levels). Finally, he notes that execution‑based levels (e.g., a bearish order block on a lower timeframe) are useful for trade entry but irrelevant for bias determination.
Chapters
All right, welcome to the example on what are key levels, how can you find them, and just basically everything that you need to know about key levels. But before you understand what are key levels, you will find it impossible to determine the higher time frame bias. And since we haven't gotten into the part where we talked about the higher time frame bias yet, higher time frame bias is basically just your prediction on where the market is going to go next. And once you master this, you will have like a very, very high success rate in determining, just predicting where the market is going to go. If you watched any of my YouTube videos before, I have an ability to consistently call where the market is going to go to next. Like, the thing that this module teaches is exactly how to do that. So, you know, without any further ado, let's dive into it. There tends to be a lot of confusion when it comes to key levels. A lot of people get confused. Oh, you know, key levels are supposed to be fair value gaps, or like order blocks, or swing highs, or equal lows, equal highs, whatever. But this is my rule when it comes to key levels. This will reduce all your confusion. So the first thing you need to understand is that there are only 2 types of key levels. One of them is going to be significant key levels. This is used for determining the high time frame bias, and also, as the name implies, this is the most significant key level. So if you have an option of, you know, this one getting hit versus this one getting hit, you want to prioritize this one because obviously it's more significant. But primarily it's used for determining the high time frame bias, and I'm going to explain why in just a bit. The second type of key level is going to be more of an execution-based key level, and this is basically areas that you want to look for after you have identified your higher timeframe bias where you can look for trades in. For example, on the 4-hourly chart, you can see that price is in this bearish— sorry, this bullish order block at the moment. So I can mark this out. This would be an execution-based level because now I can go into, let's say my execution timeframe is the 1-hourly chart. Now I can look for a setup in the 1-hourly chart at this key level. But this is not going to be helpful for you at all in determining where the market is going to go next. This is just an area where you would expect the market to have a reaction to. Hopefully you get the difference. So what in this video, what we're going to be focusing on is the significant key levels because this module is about higher time frame bias. That's what we want to focus on one step at a time. So here's the thing about significant key levels. This is my rule for identifying them. Firstly, they should only be previous highs and lows or previous equal high and lows or Spaceman BTC levels. Now I'll get into this one in just a bit. But this should not be your priority at the moment. I'll just include it here because, you know, technically it's still a key level. But when I say significant key levels, when I say like previous high low on like previous equal high equal low, some of you might immediately be tempted to just go back on the chart and just mark out like literally every single high, every single low. Bam bam bam bam bam bam bam. There is no point to doing that because here's the second rule that will prevent you from just literally marking out every single level and just having your chart full of lines, which is once you are done with this part of your high time frame bias analysis, you'll have no more than five to six significant key levels. In fact, 6 is already pushing it. I wouldn't even have more than 5 or even more than 4 most of the time. This is all that matters, all right? And here's how you determine where to find these. Number 1 is where did price take out recently, right? This is definitely just 1, maximum 2. Where is the close relevant high and low? That's 2 levels there. And then what is a further target for a high and low? That's 2 targets there. That's why I say you will have no more than 5 to 6. Let's get into how to identify these and what I mean by that. So hopping into the 4-hourly chart, assuming that this is our high timeframe that we're using to determine the environment. And by the way, one other note, you should only identify significant key levels on your higher timeframe. In fact, later on in this module, I'm gonna talk about timeframes. So another point of confusion for a lot of people is what timeframe do you use? Like, oh, maybe the 7-minute chart is, you know, the magic chart, or like the 30-minute. There's a lot of debate as to what the best timeframe is. We're gonna get into that later on. And basically coming back into the example, step 1, very easy. Where did price take out recently? Price recently took out this high right here, and the reason why I'm using the candle bodies you should have already learned in the last module. So once this is taken out, this fulfills step one, right? Significant key level has been taken. Now I zoom back out because who knows, maybe price could be targeting for a higher level after this level has been taken out. Let's say maybe this is just a retrace and it's going to go for a higher level, right? So now you zoom out. This brings us back to what is a close slash relevant high low. So assuming that there is a potential that price is going to go up from here. What is a relevant high? Well, let's come back here. That's a pretty clean high that hasn't been taken before. So there you go. We have marked out one of the key levels where you have formed relatively equal highs just before this key level. This is also known. This is a pretty advanced concept, but this is something known as inducement, where the market makers form relatively equal highs right before a significant liquidity level. And the reason for that is because they want to induce, right? Induce means lure to. Trick people, to trick dumb money into thinking that this is quote-unquote resistance. And then obviously they bring the price down a bit before coming back up, taking out all the stops above this area, and then potentially even taking out the stops beyond, right? So immediately we now have one other key level where price got this one. If we are still in a bullish scenario, then this would be a relevant recent key level, right? Remember, what is a close and relevant high and low? That's the key word here— close and relevant. Sometimes people mark out something that is way too close. For example, here, like, this wouldn't make sense. Like, this would actually get hit pretty, like, pretty, pretty quickly. And if you, if you do hit this, this would be more of an execution-based key level, because one of my favorite setups in, in all of trading is looking for buy-side liquidity sweeps during downtrends, right? What I mean by that, when the market makers put the market into a sell program, sell-side liquidity sweeps such as here, after you take out this previous high, this gives the market enough fuel to form new lows. That's one of my favorite setups. Not going to get into that yet, But this is way too close. This is way too zoomed in to be considered a significant key level. Remember, significant key levels are used to predict where price is going to go over a period of the next few weeks, few months, whatever it is, depending on the timeframe that you're using as your higher timeframe. So this does not zoom out enough to give us a clear picture. In this case, this will be good as an execution-based key level, okay? One other distinction that you can use to separate higher timeframe, like just significant key levels versus execution-based key levels, is very simple. You want to look for external structure, not internal structure. What do I mean by that? Internal structure, for example, this entire move here would be internal structure amongst this external structure, right? You want to reduce all the noise. So basically, this is just like a little retracement within the external structure, which is from here to here, right? This is your external, this is your internal. Now, if that doesn't make sense, don't worry. Just remember that significant key levels, as the name implies, is significant. Right? Should be far away. So for example, now that you have high, now you look for a low. Well, a low again significant. I'm not talking about this one here, right? That's not significant. That's probably going to get hit within just the next day. We're on a four-hourly chart, so within the next few candles, this is going to get hit 100%. Like we already know it. But for me personally, a key level that I'll be looking at is going to be these here, right there. Those equal lows right there. That's the key level I'm looking at, right? So now we have another close plus relevant. Oh. That's our close plus relevant high. Easy. And that is where price took out recently. Very simple. And now we come back to here. What is a further target for a higher low? Of course, one of my philosophies when it comes to trading is the art of strategy. I love strategy. I love the art of war. I've read more— I've read more history books than you can count. I've watched more history videos, war videos, whatever. I used to play strategy games a lot, and until now I still love new chess, Go Chinese chess. And so one of the core principles of the art of strategy is to always try to think two to three steps ahead. So this is an embodiment of that because now not only are we having a close high and low, now we look for the next level. Where could price potentially like on a higher like on a macro time frame? Where could price be attracted to even more than just these relevant ones? Okay. Now I can see that this is super significant, right? It's Quite far away, and it's also the most significant swing low within this range here. Right? That's the low, and that's the high. So bam! We have now our long-term target. You'll realize that in all of my videos, I will always have a short-term bull target, a long-term bull target, a short-term bear target, and a long-term bear target. There's a reason for that. Now that we have that, okay, now we zoom out. Right? This is a close past relevant high amongst like within the big picture. Okay, maybe this one right here. That is a previous high that has not yet been taken out, which I believe I've already drew a line on. Yeah, I believe I already drew a line on that when I was doing my analysis on Aussie dollar. Believe it or not, I was trading this just a couple of weeks ago. I could remove that, it'd be great. It doesn't seem like I can do it at the moment. So let's just leave it, let's just leave it there. So now that is our long-term bull target. There you go. Now the reason why I did not mark out this one, because you could also say that, oh, within this range here, that is the significant high, that's the significant low. Comes back to the question of relevance, right? This, always keep this in mind. How relevant is that level to you? Like sure, I can mark out literally every single level and just put it there. But think about it this way: How long do you think it's going to take Aussie dollar on this higher time frame scale like time frame to hit there? Probably a few months. Keyword irrelevant. Doesn't matter to us. All right. So that is you know the example on key levels. And you know I'm just going to cap off this video by providing an analysis on what I think the high time frame bias is going to be. Given that price recently took out the highs already, this is called a range deviation. This is a range where price is trading just within this range. There are equal lows beneath here. I believe that amongst, like within this larger scale, yeah, there is the fib and there's also a key level over here that I previously drew out as I was trading the Aussie dollar. I believe my trade was placed like somewhere there. Yeah, you can see there. So I believe that the high timeframe bias in this case is going to be coming out to take out these lows. These lows are an exact same setup with these highs here, right? Equal highs right before a key level, equal lows right before a key level. So we'll just play forward to see how it plays out. And then over here is what you would call your execution-based key level, where you have a bearish order block over there, and that's where you can take a trade. But when it comes to predicting where price is going to go next, that is irrelevant, right? That's not what we're going to focus on, not right now. All right, that is the example on key levels. If you have any questions, feel free to ask. Otherwise, hope this has been helpful. Cheers!






