In this video, The Art Of Crypto explains the upcoming Ethereum Shanghai hard fork, which will unlock roughly 17.6 million ETH (about $3 billion) and enable stakers to withdraw their assets. The host argues that the unlock will not cause an immediate massive sell‑off because withdrawals are queued over weeks, turning the event into a classic "sell the rumor, buy the news" scenario driven by market sentiment. He then provides a detailed, multi‑timeframe technical analysis and trading roadmap for the next 1‑3 months. Starting with the weekly chart, he identifies the current premium zone (0.705–0.618 Fibonacci levels) and expects a retracement toward a discount zone (around the 0.5 level). He highlights a fair‑value gap near $1,400 as a potential bottom, and uses 4‑hour swing lows, order blocks, and liquidity pools to pinpoint entry zones. Two price scenarios are outlined: a bearish bounce to $1,470‑$1,512 before a possible continuation, and a bullish breakout toward $2,400. Throughout, he emphasizes market‑maker dynamics, stop‑loss liquidity, and the importance of aligning trades with structural changes (break of swing highs, order‑block closures). The video concludes with a call to action for a paid trading education program.
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What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art Of Crypto. I know I have been away for quite some time, but in this video we're going to dive into a pretty interesting topic. So at the moment, I am sure a lot of you are familiar with this upcoming event called the ETH Shanghai upgrade, and that is going to be happening sometime during April. The ETH Shanghai upgrade, for those of you who don't know, is an event where about 17.6 million ETH tokens are going to be unlocked On, well, pretty much the same day. But there is a catch to it. So in this video, I'm going to explain whether or not $3 billion of ETH being unlocked is going to dump the price action of ETH. But honestly, the answer to that question is going to surprise you. In this video, we're going to get into the price action of Ethereum as well to give you the exact steps on how you can take advantage of, you know, the movements that are going to be happening over the next 1 to 3 months in order to make money for yourself. So let's dive right into it. The first thing we need to start with is what the hell is this Shanghai upgrade? So basically, this is known as a hard fork, and the last major ETH hard fork was actually the London hard fork. Right now, this is the Shanghai hard fork. So this will be the first time since people began staking their ETH back in 2020 to actually take profit on their ETH. However, there is a catch to this, which is what I'm here to tell you, is that not all the ETH is actually going to be able to be sold at the exact same time. In fact, there's There is going to be sort of like a queue where it will usually take people between 35 to up to 100 days, sometimes more, in order to just, you know, get in the queue for them to withdraw their ETH. So the fact that there is going to be about $3 billion worth of ETH getting unlocked on pretty much the same day is going to be much more of a sell the rumor, buy the news sort of situation, whereby the actual tokenomics of the unlock is not actually going to play a huge factor in the ETH price action. But the sentiment of investors and traders are going to play a much bigger role in dumping the price and pumping the price. But either way, expect there to be volatility whereby the price action moves sort of like this or like this. Expect these kinds of V-shaped movements on the day itself or in the days heading up to it. But that's not what we want to talk about. I promised you earlier that I will give you the exact information that you need to know over the next 1, 2, 3 months in order to be able to profit from this current situation. And to do that, we're going to need to start off on the weekly chart where we can get a clear big picture overview of what is about to happen. Now, this is a piece of advice for all of you traders out there, which is, I assume, most of you. Whenever you're starting off any kind of an analysis, make sure you start off on the higher time frame first because you want to identify— for example, right now when I'm on a higher time frame, I can identify that within this trading range here, we're trading within the 0.705 and the 0.618, which is known as a premium. Whenever the price starts trading in a premium, that's where the market makers look to sell the asset back into a discount, right, which is anything below the 0.5, so that they can stock up more of the asset before pumping the price up. This is also one of the reasons why triangle patterns, or, you know, these chart patterns tend to form. It's basically just, you know, price expands, right, there's the trading range, it comes back to Say the 0.705, and it expands to the 0.705, comes to the 0.705, right? And then you have your triangle, and then it breaks out, or that's what retail traders like to call it. But this is the mechanism behind exactly how that works. So at the moment, ETH has just went to the 0.705, which is known as the optimal trade entry by ICT, and that is actually a very significant level where it got rejected from. So now the key is to figure out where is going to be the bottom. And I'll tell you straight up right now that I expect ETH to at least go within this fair value gap here, right? This whole block here is a fair value gap. And what I'm going to do is I'm going to draw a little fib on this and mark out the 0.5 of the fair value gap. In many situations where you get an aggressive move, you know, upwards or downwards, you will find that fair value gaps tend to be, you know, areas where you can find or snipe bottoms and tops. And for now, I'm going to mark out this level, which is around $1,400. So am I saying that Ethereum has a very good chance of going back to $1,400? I think so. But at the very least, right, at the very least, now that we have like a big picture overview, we understand that on the macro scale, we are in a premium. We're expecting some kind of a retracement back into a discount before the next move up. Whether the price is going to come down to $1,000 and below, or if the price is actually going to go to $2,400, that all depends on macro conditions, which I will get into later. But for now, Now that we understand where we are in the immediate, you know, big picture overview, we can now plan out our detailed, you know, course of action. And to do that, I'm going to zoom in, right? Once you start on the higher timeframe, you zoom in afterwards. But on the daily chart, it does not appear that there is an area value that we can take advantage of right within this area. However, there are a couple of levels that we can see if we zoom into the 4-hourly chart. And in this case, it is going to be this swing low or relatively equal lows here. Where you have one low there and another low there, which happens to coincide with this area. And this is also an area where market makers have actually previously consolidated the price for a very short time before taking, you know, the price up exponentially higher. And because of that, there are footprints basically that the market makers have active positions over here and that they would be looking to close out their losing positions over here before, you know, bringing price higher. Now, the second thing that will add confluence to this theory That I'm having at the moment is the fact that if you draw a fib from the swing low to swing high— now this is a very big swing— that line happens to fall right at about the 0.5, which again, when price trades in the premium for too long, the algorithms that deliver price action in these markets are literally programmed to bring it back to a state of equilibrium, which is the 0.5, or just bringing it back into a discount in order to rebalance it a little bit before moving the price higher the next leg up. So in fact, this is not going to be the macro bottom. And I never said that it was going to be, but expect some kind of a bounce at around this area. And then here is going to be the next crucial move, right? If in this move, for example, let's— I'm going to plan out exactly what you should be thinking about when this happens, right? So assuming that the current swing high is what we got, if price does come all the way down here and then it starts going aggressively upwards again, breaking this high, right? Or any, just any random high, right? As long as there's a swing high on the daily chart, that's your cue. So when you break the first swing high, you're going to look to get in on, you know, a retrace, right? So let's say that price action gets delivered like that. You break the swing high, you want to get in on a retrace into an area value, right? What I'll usually do is I'll draw a fib from here to here and then just look for the 705 or the 618, and then you target this, right? That is the bullish scenario. The bearish scenario would be you come down here You do not break any kind of like swing highs, which means that there is no change of character. And so you expect price to actually go to the 705 and the 618. In fact, there would be a lot more reason for us to believe that price is actually going to go back to the 705 and the 618 for a macro bottom to form. Because over here you can see that there is a bearish order block over here, this blue, this blue candle here that got absolutely just blown through it, right? It got completely ignored. Which means all the people, especially the market makers, because they're the ones who are using these order blocks, the market makers that are in the red back here, right? Imagine they sold here, price just went all the way up here without waiting for them, without giving them a chance to get out of the position. So it would make sense that the moment price comes back into here, they're going to close their losing sell positions, start, you know, pivoting into longs, and then bam, right? They're going to bring the markets up because that's what market makers do. They build up all this liquidity, right? They make you think that this is going to be quote unquote support And then they'll just, just blow through you. They come down to this random area, right? Make you think that, oh, you know, it's going to be a strong bounce, V-shaped recovery, it's going to go to the moon. But then there's no change of character happening, right? No swing highs get broken. And so they bring it back low again where they mitigate their positions, they mitigate their losses before really like actually bringing it back up. So something like that. So all in all, something that I'm saying right now is that I am actually expecting 2,400 ETH. Unless there are some significant changes. Now, in an upcoming video, I'm going to talk about macro conditions and how that's going to affect Bitcoin and Ethereum. But purely like just price action at the moment, it does seem like because you have broken structure over here, like with confirmed broken structure, um, on the daily chart as well, there would be, you know, no reason for us to expect that it's gonna go back to range lows, which is quite far away. But of course, even though You know, just looking at price action, yeah, cool, right? I'm just preparing you guys for whatever scenario does play out. And in this case, I'm expecting at the minimum, right, at the minimum, for price to return back to $1,500 before a bounce. You know, either it's going to be like a good bounce, it's going to be a short bounce before ultimately coming here. That's basically the 2 scenarios that are going to happen, right? But at the very least, it's going to come at least back to $1,500. The exact number would be at least $1,512. down to about $1,470, right? That's a— that's the range that I'm expecting. And the reason for that is because there is liquidity below these lows. So something that tends to happen in the markets a lot is that even in an uptrend, right, in order for the markets to go up— I want you to imagine that the market is like a Ferrari. In order to make any car move, you need fuel. And in the markets, this fuel comes in the form of liquidity, which is basically dumb money, where we have the— our stop losses set, you know, below these lows. And so the market makers know this because they have access to stop-loss data and liquidation data, and they have access to all of our positions. So there is a ton of people with stop-losses set here. If they take their position, right, they will literally be causing losses to all these people. And in a market, it is a zero-sum game whereby for every winner there is going to be losers. It's not like business where, you know, everyone can win. Trading is different. So if they stop everyone out here then a lot of people are going to lose. The market makers are going to make money, right? So even in an uptrend, don't be surprised where, for example, this whole here was an uptrend, but then they took the liquidity of 1, 2, 3, 4 lows before pumping the price up the final leg. So they could very well just take liquidity, fill in this imbalance here, right? Again, I want you to look at the weekly chart and notice how this candle here is just going straight up, right? This tells you that there is an imbalance— too many buyers, not enough sellers. Which means there are sell orders still present here. And if there's sell orders, right, if there's sellers willing to sell at a low price compared to the target that they're going for, then why not fill the positions of the sellers that are willing to sell at a low price? And then the market makers will buy from them at a low price, if that makes sense. So yeah, you know, all in all, like, that's the reason why I'm expecting at least this level to get hit. It all just comes down to liquidity. It all just comes down to the market makers', you know, basic instinct to make money. Just like all of us. So now that you know all this information, I wish you good trading. And if you want a trading education that is going to actually get you results, there will be a link in the description box below where
