HUGE move coming to bitcoin this week! (be careful)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Start of a new week, which means new opportunities, and I'm going to break it all down within this video. And we're going to talk about Bitcoin mainly, although there is another bonus pick for today since we have news for that other pair, which we're going to dive into later. But anyways, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these videos daily for the last year and a half, and I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these calls. And so far we're sitting at around a 78% win rate. So the only thing that matters to you is that if you're new here, you're probably at the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. But with that said, let's just dive into the video, and we're going to kick things off on the weekly chart because at the start of the week, one thing that I love to do is to just zoom out to the higher time frames just to get like a better perspective of kind of like the lay of the land. And one of the ways that this came in helpful last week was the fact that we identified this bearish fair value gap over here. But usually, just to give you some context, when you have a bullish candle close on, you know, the weekly, we would usually be looking for longs throughout the week. But because of this fair value gap over here, paired with the fact that the market structure is overall really bearish, like just to give you an idea, this is like higher low, higher low, higher low, higher high. And then at this point here, you've already broken it. And so in terms of the overall massive weekly macro market structure, it's broken. So with that said, that means that our bias throughout this entire period of time should be to prioritize shorts over longs. And so coupled with the fact that we had a bearish PD array, On the weekly chart means that we have to apply a little bit of critical thinking into this, right? And just kind of calculate the odds. And odds are, when I mentioned this last Monday, was that yeah, we might see a little uptick on Monday and Tuesday, but I think the true move for the week is actually going to go towards the downside. And that's exactly what happened, right? Monday, Tuesday, you ended up going up, and then like Wednesday, that was when the big dump happened, and boom, off you go. And so that's one of the beautiful things about the weekly chart, is just getting an understanding of the overall macro kind of like situation. And right now, I think with the bearish candle close last week, this gives us way more confirmation. Like, this week is going to be nice because we can just kind of continue with the trend. Again, the overall market structure and the overall trend is already on a downtrend. And so when you are in a downtrend, the correct thing to do is to simply sell low and then buy back lower. Or in other words, follow the trend. After all, you've probably heard the saying many times before, but as traders, the trend is your friend. And that is very much true because what ends up happening when you start going countertrend is that very little movement in a much longer period of time as compared to if you just focus on the shorts, like big movements, very short periods of time, right? This is way easier to trade compared to trying to, you know, catch some bottom or whatever and then ending up getting stopped out multiple times because you, you know, you didn't actually know that it was the bottom. And overall, like, yeah, it's just not a fun experience. And now that we understand what is going on on the weekly chart, and because this fair value gap has already been filled, I don't think it's likely that we're going to go fill that fair value gap again, although maybe this Daily chart is going to tell us a different story. So in terms of the daily chart, we've also got a slightly different situation going on right now, where because we got a candle close beneath this level, this is technically a change in state of delivery, right? Which means now this entire block here is going to be a bearish order block until proven otherwise. Now how do we prove this otherwise? It's when you get a candle close above this level right here at 66,300. Now if you were to get a daily candle close above this level, okay, bam, right? You're straight on in an uptrend and this bearish order block gets Flipped into a bullish order block, and we would actually be looking for a long after retracing back into this point. But as of right now, because of everything that I've already told you, I think we are going to be bearish. Now it doesn't actually matter what I think, but just purely from applying the system that I've used over the last year and a half to achieve a pretty good success rate, plus the fact that yeah, you know overall read on the market structure and everything, it is bearish. We're going to be leaning towards the downside, especially because we have a couple of key liquidity points over here that we can still take out. So I think that is going to be the liquidity target for the week. This essentially like. $60,700 as well as around $59,200. That is going to be the weekly target, which means that in terms of the weekly candle, I expect, right, again, Monday and Tuesday to just give us kind of like a false move towards the upside before we get a weekly expansion towards the downside. The way you play this, by the way, is to understand how the power of 3 works. So if that sounds like a bunch of mumbo jumbo, let me break it down. So the way PO3 works is essentially You will get a weekly open, right? In every candle, you get an open, high, low, close. Now, because we are bearish in terms of the weekly bias, we would anticipate that any time or at any point, if price goes above the weekly open, that gives us an opportunity to sell high before a true weekly expansion. And then this will be the close. So this is how we would use it. Now, is the move going to happen on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday? Could happen on Friday. Like, I don't know. But the overall, like, pattern that we're going to be hunting for is going to be something like this. Now, you see this last week as well. And again, PO3 is the second part of the equation that I used to apply my— like, to basically kind of like predict that, okay, this is probably going to dump on Wednesday, right? The way I came to that conclusion is Monday, Tuesday, you went above, clearly filling in the fair value gap, and then Wednesday you get that true expansion towards the downside. So same thing here. Again, right now, because Monday and Tuesday is currently opening towards the upside, that is actually a good thing because it allows us an opportunity to get into a short at, you know, to basically sell high and then buy low kind of situation. Now If I were to break this down even further, on the daily chart right now, you can see that there is a bearish fair value gap that price is currently coming back into. And I think this is going to be the level that we're going to be paying attention to all throughout this week. In fact, has price already filled it? Yeah, technically speaking, it's already filled it. So like, we've already gotten the first fill of the fair value gap. So I wouldn't be surprised if price just kind of ends up dumping for the rest of the week. But let's zoom in a little bit more to get a better idea. Essentially, this is a bearish fair value gap, and Price comes in here. This may be the high of the week, and then boom, right? Rest of the week towards the downside. Now, just to confirm though, when we might expect a kind of like true move of the week, we can see we are going to use news to our advantage. Now, the reason why we use news is because if you take a look here at red folder news, this is essentially what is known as high impact economic news. The reason why this matters is that you need to understand the market does not move randomly. There is always a reason for the market to move. Either it's going for some sort of liquidity level, which kind of dictates the kind of like price action. Like for example, we identified. Earlier that there is a liquidity level at $60,000 and $59,000-ish. And so that is the price action target, right? So that is the liquidity objective. But liquidity is only one part of the equation because I don't know if you noticed this, but there are 2 axes on your chart. There is a Y-axis, there's an X-axis. And in terms of the Y-axis here, this is price action, right? This is price, which is what people tend to focus on and the only thing that people tend to focus on. But you also have an X-axis, which is time. Now, news dictates when these major price movements will happen, right? It allows you to basically kind of remove one variable from the equation instead of having to think like, okay, I have to understand when price is going to move and where price is going to move. Whenever you have news, especially high-impact news, which in this case for this week is going to be at 8:30 AM on Thursday, we can expect that, okay, chances are we're going to get a pretty big move on Thursday at around 8:30 AM. Now my job, my remaining job as a trader, is to simply get a good understanding of what I think the direction is going to be. And so instead of having to worry about both variables, I can now remove one and focus on just one. This is why I love trading on news days, and this is why I in fact even like— it's not even that I love trading on news days, it's more like even when I look at the charts on non-news days, I tend to just not get as many opportunities or as many, you know, good quality opportunities. And so most of the time, like on Mondays especially, I just tend to take the day off and treat it like an extended weekend, right? Saturday, Sunday, Monday is Basically, there are no trading days except for one Monday of the week, which is not the time to get into that for now. So overall, like because we have news on Thursday, we can reasonably expect that the true move will happen sometime Wednesday, Thursday, right? And so let's break it down a little bit more. So today we've already filled in the fair value gap and seems like this is going to be a strong high because this previous high here, sorry, this high that just formed here actually swept out prior liquidity. Now just to give you some context, a strong high is a high that sweeps prior liquidity, right? So this is a strong high and this This would, for example, be an example of a weak high because it did not take out the prior liquidity point. Now, the reason why this matters is because strong highs are the types of highs, or strong lows— strong highs or lows are the types of highs or lows that we would actually want to trade with. Because assuming that we are going short, we ideally want to be trading into a strong high because it means that there is less of a chance that price is going to revisit that area considering that liquidity has already been swept with that move. Versus a weak high, there's usually a pretty decent chance that you sweep out the high before, you know, some sort of a downside movement. Now again, these are just generalizations. It doesn't mean that just because you have a strong high, it means you will never kind of revisit it. But we in trading, right, the way we want to think about trading is that because this is a probabilistic game, meaning that, you know, even if you do everything right, you might not end up with a good result, or even if you do everything wrong, you might just end up with a win. Because this is a probabilistic game, We, every trade that we want to take, we want to stack the deck in our favor as much as possible, right? So instead of operating with like a 50% success rate, we want to stack multiple confluences so that we are operating on an overall 78, you know, 75% success rate, right? Just to give you an idea. And that's what I'm doing here when I look at all of these confluences. And by the way, if you like the sound of that trading philosophy and how we just keep things simple here, and if you'd like to work with me and my team in order to get you funded within the next 90 to 120 days, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and book in a call. And don't Don't worry, it's not, um, it's not some call where we're just going to hard pitch you the whole time. We're just going to understand your situation, see if we can truly help, and if we can, we'll make you an offer. And if not, we'll at least point you in the right direction so that you know what to do next in order to improve as a trader. But with that said, just looking at the 1-hourly chart here, I don't really see too clear of a signal, right? Because overall, we understand like, okay, we're going to the downside, but at the same time, based on where price action currently is right now, The most recent move that happened is actually a bullish CIST. Now I know that bullish CIST ended up going for the liquidity point, but it doesn't change the fact that at the moment the 1-hourly order flow is actually bullish. And one of the core tenets of this system is that the best trades that we can take— in fact, this is not even like best or bad trade. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that this is an essential tenet— is that we only want to take trades when all 3 timeframes are aligned in the same direction. So if you remember earlier, we talked about the weekly chart, right? That's bearish at the moment. In terms of the daily chart, well, if you just look at the daily bias, we're actually bearish. Now, if you look at the one-hourly chart, oh, we are bullish. So right now there's a bit of timeframe misalignment. So chances are, right, chances are I'm not going to be trading today. But even if I did, it would be half-risk trades because like one of the key tenets within the system is already not met at the moment. And it's not to say that we cannot take a trade. It's just that we want to account for this by going half-risk or just being a little bit more cautious. Because if you try to be too aggressive in a market condition or in a situation where you should not be aggressive, that is a mistake. Just like how if you are not aggressive enough in a market condition where you should be aggressive, that is also a mistake. But I'm not going to break it down here. So just understand that in terms of the 1-hourly chart right now, it is looking bullish. But one thing will change that, which is if by the time you watch this video you get a convincing candle close beneath $63,930, right? This will essentially turn this into a potential bearish order block, right? If you get a bullish Sorry, a bearish candle close beneath this level. You can look for a retrace back into this order block and target this low right here at 63,200. You could go for this. You could go for this. But either way, like the way that we usually operate is we go with a standard risk reward of two to one on every trade that we take. So for example, if this is my entry, this is my stop, then I would place my TP somewhere around two risk rewards. So that is how I would play today. And if I do not get this situation here, I would not even consider taking a trade personally, at least not on Bitcoin. We have news on Canadian dollar. I don't know if you noticed this. So we're going to get into Canadian dollar. Dollar in just a bit. I think that may give us an opportunity where Bitcoin doesn't. And just to touch quickly on that, this system can be applied to basically, you know, Forex, futures, NASDAQ, commodities, crypto— whatever it is, it can be applied. After all, this is a price action concept. As long as you have price action, you can apply it. The only thing I haven't tried it though is stocks. But, but just to go back to the point that I was trying to make, it is not a bad thing to give yourself the option of trading multiple markets because Now, just to give you an example, like the Bitcoin price action at the moment does not look as high probability as compared to maybe some forex chart or some NASDAQ chart or whatever. And the problem that comes when you're only trading one pair is that sometimes, even though there is no opportunity there, you still feel the need to, you know, take something because you've already kind of clocked into work, right? You've already opened up the charts, you've already, you know, put in work, and so you feel like you should do something. But the reality is, like, trading doesn't work the same way as a normal job, and I hope you understand that already because in trading you're not paid Relative to the amount of trades that you take. You're not even paid relative to the amount of hours that you put into it. Like, the amount of money that you make from trading is literally correlated to the quality of the decisions that you do take. So you don't have to trade a lot, but you need to make sure that whatever trades that you do take are like A++ trades. And that's how you ensure that you will make money. Very counterintuitive. Takes people years to understand this. So chances are, like, a lot of you watching this probably aren't going to get that either. But just having access to other assets helps a lot with this because when Bitcoin's not giving you an opportunity, guess what? I can just go and use the Canadian, which I will do very shortly. Now, just coming onto the 5-minute chart again, it's the same kind of story here where, you know, usually on a bearish day we want to see a sweep above the Asia high, and usually on a bullish day we want to see a sweep of the Asia low prior to actually taking any trades. And so far, London has been doing the one thing that we hate to see, which is the fact that it's right smack dab in the middle of the Asia range. This tells you that the market is indecisive at the moment, which is normal, right? Today's Monday, it's the first day of the week. The everything's still setting up. We don't have news, and like yeah, it's pretty normal for Mondays to look like this. But that's also the warning sign that like yeah, this just isn't the best trading day. And unless you see that condition that I've already mapped out, you don't want to be trading today, at least not in Bitcoin. Now quickly, we're going to go take a look at USD Canadian, and this is where you know we may potentially get an opportunity. So in terms of the weekly, by the way, overall, like this thing is bullish as heck. In the upcoming weeks, potentially months, we are most likely just going to be looking for longs in terms of USD/CAD. Now, in terms of the daily chart, you are having a bullish daily bias, so that's a good thing. We're going to be looking for longs today. But when you come into the 1-hourly chart, same thing here, right? You have— you're coming back into a bullish PD array. Now, one thing that I do expect price to actually do is that over here you have a weak low, right? This is an example of a weak low because it did not sweep any prior liquidity. I think the setup for today is going to be, as you're retracing this overall order block here, You're going to go for that liquidity sweep right there. Once you sweep it out, you're going to be looking for a trade towards the upside, right? This is just what I think at the moment, just purely based on the 1-hourly chart. And let me just go down to the 5-minute to confirm this. And yes, right, this low right here coincides with the Asia low. And remember what I said earlier, on a day where you are bullish, you actually want to see a sweep of the Asia low before going up. So this is going to be the ideal setup. Now, does that mean that that is the only possible setup? No, not really, because if you go down into the 1-hourly chart again, remember we have another order block that we're operating in currently. So by the time you watch this video, there are only 2 things that can be true. One is that prices kind of bounce out of this order block and you are putting in convincing 5-minute order flow, in which case, by the time you watch this video, especially as you get closer to that news window, which is at 8:30— and by the way, the news window refers to the hour before news to the hour after news. That tends to be the highest probability trading window for this system in particular. A lot of our biggest wins and a lot of our, like, just best performing trades have always come between the hour before news and the hour after news. So that's going to be 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM New York. And if you get that, Then by all means, right? It's as simple as momentum trading. Like, if you see a new order block on the 5-minute, you take a trade here, you place a stop beneath the 5-minute order block, and you target for 2R. Now, chances are though, I think this is still going to be the ideal setup that you're going to want to look for, where you sweep out the Asia lows followed by that 5-minute order flow, right? Again, you don't want it— just because a liquidity level or some sort of higher timeframe PD array has been filled does not give you the go-ahead to immediately jump into a trade. You still need to look for the lower timeframe to show you that, okay, in fact, this thesis is correct. The market agrees with this thesis. And Only then do you dive in after you see a 5-minute CSD. And by the way, I know this can sound a little bit complicated, especially if you're new here, but just understand that you can learn this system pretty quickly just by watching a couple of more videos. And I don't say this to get you to subscribe or whatever, but truly, like, we've got so many people that have just gotten amazing results purely just from these videos alone. And just to prove a point, like, Jabba, shout out to you if you're watching. Like, Shrem bro, been watching your YouTube videos for over a year now. Didn't even know what a prop firm repeat EA was when I started watching. Since then, you've scaled to 7 $150K accounts, and this was, this P&L of a single day. Yeah, I'm really not pulling this out of nowhere. And also Crypto Hustler, now that I'm seeing you, shout out to you. The amount of P&Ls that he's dropped on my channel, like just in the Twitter comments, like this is another one. So yeah, you can definitely learn this by yourself just watching these YouTube videos. So subscribe and like if you want to see, if you want to stay tuned with all of this. And of course, as usual, I will be posting any trade updates on Twitter. I'm not going to, you know, gate it behind some signals group or whatever. If I do take any trades, I'm going to post it on Twitter, so feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, happy trading today and ciao ciao.