HUGE move incoming for bitcoin today (don’t miss this!)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today is the day, the day we're gonna have CPI later and I'm gonna break down exactly how this is going to affect Bitcoin. Besides that, I'm going to give you the daily setup for Bitcoin and trust me, there is going to be a big move coming today. And one thing's for sure, there is a big piece of news and chances are we're gonna have a pretty big move coming today. So overall, you're not going to want to miss this. I'm going to break everything down in the rest of this video, but before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these videos for the better part of the last year and a half. In fact, I've been making these videos daily and I've been documenting the success rate, or rather the win rate of these calls. And so far we are at about a 78% win rate where we had 130 wins and 35 losses from last year and 33 wins and 13 losses so far in this year. So yeah, if you're new here, just understand that I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So you're probably in the right place. But with that said, let's get into the video. So just to recap, today we have FOMC. Today we have Federal Funds Rate. So in fact, completely, I got so hyped at the start of this video that I realized like, no, It's not inflation today. Today is FOMC. Today is federal funds rate. Essentially, the Federal Reserve is going to come out and kind of give an announcement like, "Hey, this is what we're going to be doing with the interest rates. Either we're going to hike it, either we're going to you know remain where we are, or we might lower it." Ignore that last part though. There is basically no chance that they're going to be lowering the interest rates right now. If they do though, this is going to be a revolutionary, like almost miraculous kind of like just expect some sort of a miraculous God candle towards the upside because one thing you need to understand is. Bitcoin is a risk asset. And like all of the other risk assets, kind of like NASDAQ, you know, you've got S&P, or even all of the altcoins, all risk assets thrive when the interest rates are lower, not higher. Because when interest rates are low, people are more, you know, more willing to take risk. There is more money flowing around in the economy in general. But unfortunately, that is not what's, at the very least, like it's not likely to be what's gonna happen later on today. And the main culprit for this is the fact that inflation is really high right now. Obviously, the main culprit, the elephant in the room, I guess you would say, would be the war. With the war going on, with oil prices remaining sky high, this is something that affects the supply chain all around. Now, I know that they have recently started, you know, they have recently kind of finalized some sort of a peace deal, and the signing is going to take place on the 19th of June in Switzerland. It does not change the fact that, yes, we are about 25-30%, like, in fact, we are about 30% lower compared to where we were just a couple of months ago. But compared to the historical average, I'm talking like the oil prices all the way from, say, 2022 all the way to 2026, like, yeah, we're still about 50% above that baseline. And that is going to have severe implications throughout the whole supply chain. And if you understand anything about how oil tankers move, they need a few months to go from, like, the place where they get the oil to wherever the destination country is. So yeah, just understand inflation is probably going to remain high for the foreseeable future, or at least the foreseeable near future. So All of this means that interest rates are highly likely not going to go down. And in terms of Bitcoin, well, not only is the market structure in terms of the higher time frame, in which case we're looking at the weekly chart here again, I've already kind of, um, I've already kind of talked about this in the last few videos, but essentially like major market structure is already broken and that means the market is now in a downtrend. And when the market is in a downtrend, the correct thing to do is to continue selling lower and then buying back lower until you reach some sort of a bottoming point. Or in fact, the bottom is not even like the correct way to explain this because if we are trying to predict where the bottom is going to be, chances are we're going to lose money all the way down, right? So basically what I'm trying to say is that instead of looking to buy the dip, it's way better to just keep following the trend until at some point the bearish trend is going to get broken, right? If we just kind of draw this bearish market structure right now, oh wow, eventually at some point this is going to get broken. And once it does, that is a very clear sign that the market is starting to reverse. And at that point, it's never too late to just jump back in. I want you to recall back to every single moment that you have tried to buy the dip in the past, I don't know how many years that you've been in crypto. How many times has it actually made you money? Yeah, let that sit with you for a second. Because I know, at least for me, it is really cool to publicly be able to be like, hey, this is the top. Hey, this is the bottom. This is where I'm coming in. And as cool as it is for me, especially because I have an audience and I make videos, it doesn't make me money. And the biggest lesson that I've learned over the past few years is that You can either be right in the market or you can make money, but you don't need to be right in order to make money. And the way to make money I found is to just not be a bottom picker, right? Take a look at the bearish market structure all the way back here in 2021, right? Price bottoms out, eventually you get a break in market structure. Yeah, of course it would be late if you compare it to, you know, the $16,000 bottom. Like if you were to get in at $25,000, that is already technically 50%. But how many of, like how many people would have actually caught Bitcoin at this stage considering that everything was still looking bearish? Why not just, let the market do its thing, right? Once you get a confirmed change in structure, change in order flow, whatever, if you jump in at that point, you go from 25 up to 125, right? It's not rocket science, and it just requires you to kind of set your ego aside and not try to predict the market, which is again not what we're trying to do here. So overall, we're looking bearish on the weekly chart. And so in terms of the daily, here's how that applies, and I promise you this is all going to come together. Because we're bearish on the weekly, We already expected that Monday and Tuesday are just going to be some sort of a setup day for what is eventually going to come later during FOMC. We've already understood that, okay, when you have FOMC and if you do not have news on Mondays and Tuesdays, then the true move is likely only going to come on Wednesday. So if we take a look at the daily chart right now, okay, so the moment we go into the lower time frames, and so here's how it's going to play out in terms of the daily chart. Yesterday we finally got that bearish candle close, right? Again, We are bearish on the higher timeframe here. We have a bearish daily bias, which means we're looking for shorts today. Let's go into the one-hourly chart. Let's see how this is playing out. Oh boom! Immediately you have some sort of heads and shoulders pattern, and it seems that you've broken down. Not only broken down, you came back to retest, and you're continuing to break down. So that is second or like third signal or whatever. Fourth signal, like in about the next 36 minutes, it's very likely that you're going to close beneath this level right here at 65,400 based on the Binance chart. And if you do, this is going to be a 100% undeniable C I S D. Sorry, my my handwriting is not great. But this is the final nail in a coffin that kind of confirms that hey, order flow is bearish. In fact, if you were to have just looked at this order block before this, which I posted on Twitter by the way, feel free to follow me there if you guys want. This is where I like if I do take any trades or if there are any updates throughout the day, that I will be posting them all on Twitter. Like it's not gated behind some signals group or whatever. And by the way, shout out to Jay. Just understand I read every single comment that. You guys drop in the comment section below. And it always warms my heart to, you know, see you guys say that, hey Jay, you're going to do a funded challenge next month using the system. I've tripled my personal account since February. I'm ready. Very grateful I found you. I'm very grateful that you've stuck around so far. I've seen a lot of your comments and just know that I appreciate you as well for sticking around and always dropping comments. So to you that is watching, like show some love every now and then. It does truly keep me going. Otherwise it almost feels like I'm talking out into the void, which is Kind of how it feels like if you've ever spoken to a camera before, right? Does it feel quite human? So yeah, just continue leaving the comments, continue dropping a like on the video. Like, the better the videos perform thanks to your likes, the more likely it is that I'm gonna continue making these daily videos, and the more likely it is I'm gonna keep, you know, improving my game. Because it's kind of hard to stay motivated if you continue making these videos for a year and a half and you only get 500 views per video. I've definitely been through that recently. But anyways, back to the video. So I already posted this on Twitter lately. Essentially, we already had that kind of consolidation pattern, and this is very normal on an FOMC day where, because the news is going to be at 2 PM, which is quite late for most economic news standards, it's very normal for the market to chop around and not show some sort of a true move until much later on in the day. Where, for example, if you look at Monday and Tuesday— oh, Monday prior to the New York session, you already had quite a bit of volatility. Tuesday as well, right? Prior to the New York session, you had quite a bit of volatility, but today has been very different. So there are only really 2 ways that this can play out, and I do think one of them is more likely than the other. The first one is literally just more of a momentum kind of trade where, all right, it's very clear that this is now validated as a bearish order block, um, in the last hourly candle here. The moment— sorry, in the last 2 hourly candles here. So at 2 AM, you finally closed below this block. The moment you did, uh, you could already set a limit here and place a stop loss, and then you target for 2R because this is now bearish resistance until proven otherwise. And also shout out to— and also shout out to Justin again because this guy is absolutely killing it. Like, just by watching these videos, I've already shouted you out yesterday, but still, huge shout out. Moment that order block closed and got validated, kaboom. It is exactly what I'm talking about, right? This Justin, shout out to you. You've basically mastered the system. If this gives you a bit of validation as to what you're doing, like you're on the right track. So right now, there are two ways this plays out, right? The first of which is all right. You close below this level right here at sixty five thousand four hundred. You come back up, retest, and you continue heading downwards. The second scenario is you come back into the order block, and then you continue heading downwards. Either way, you're going. Be looking for shorts until proven otherwise. Now, the third scenario here that is a little less likely in my opinion, but still possible— like, I'm going to definitely keep an eye out for this— is that understand that this is more of a value area at the moment. And what you need to understand about value areas is that the value area itself is not the resistance point, right? The premium and discount of a value area— which, don't like ignore the technical term, just understand like there is a chance where you will go actually above the order block, get a false move before Dropping lower. This is a very similar setup to something that I called on gold last week. I'm not going to pull it up right now, but that is the third scenario. I don't think it's as likely, so I'm going to be focusing personally my efforts on this first and second one, where essentially I'm just going to continue momentum trading the markets towards the downside. And the way this will apply on the 5-minute chart is by the time you watch this video, as long as the 5-minute chart remains bearish order flow, then you're just going to continue trading this towards the downside, right? And the only thing that I would watch out for is the fact that again, If we go to FOMC, it is at 2 PM, and on a day where you have late news, it is very normal for the markets to not give you like a true move kind of until like a lot later during the day. I'm talking like an hour before the news event. So if the rest of the New York morning just chops around, which I cannot predict, I'm still going to just pull the trigger when the system tells me to pull the trigger, which in which case I've already laid out the kind of game plan. But If there happens to be no trade and if it happens to just chop around, then the ideal trading time is going to be from 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM New York time, which is basically an hour before news to the hour after news. The game plan for today is genuinely pretty clear. The execution windows can be harder to kind of time because we don't have— like, the news is going to be in the afternoon. Regardless though, the 2 times that is going to be like the best and the 2 times that, you know, whatever I've just described here is most likely to happen Is going to be A, 1 PM to 3 PM, right? The hour before news to the hour after news is always the highest probability kind of window. But the second one is going to be the New York kill zone in general, which is— which runs from 7 AM New York to 10 AM New York. Now, if you see exactly what I described, for example, you come back into the order block and then on the 5-minute chart you start breaking down, yeah, that will be the setup. Or if you simply see that, okay, by the time you watch this video, price is already at like $64,500 or something, and the order flow is still incredibly bearish, that is also going to be the setup, right? You either get a retrace or you just momentum trade. But either way, timing is what kind of dictates what you should do. Because so many people that I meet, especially so many people that get like started into trading, they only look at the technicals where, oh, you have a bearish order block here, so I'm gonna short. But depending on what time these technical setups present themselves, that dictates the success rate of those technical setups. It's not just about like, if you take a look at the chart, you have an x-axis and you have a y-axis. So many people only look at the Y-axis, which is, oh, price. But depending on what price does at certain times, that, you know, that heavily— like, the same order block that shows up at like 5 PM New York time once the major market has closed is very different compared to something that shows up in the New York kill zone, 8:30 AM, 9:30 AM. That is when the New York futures market opens, for example. So you get the idea. Either way, if I do take any setups or if I do have any updates to give regarding this trade, I'll be posting it on Twitter. So again, just feel free to follow me there. And final thing will be about the targets. Now I've already mapped out a couple. I think one of them is going to be much more likely compared to the other, of course. And that's going to be at $63,660. This is just the basically the start of the week, like Monday's low essentially, or like Sunday's low, Monday's low. You get the idea. It's just a really clean liquidity point. It is a fair distance away, like about a couple of thousand dollars away. And we take a look at the overall ATR, we can see that right now we're Averaging about $2,000 worth of movement per day. So this actually lines up with the overall, you know, kind of like just the average volatility that we might expect for Bitcoin on the average day. Now there is a lower one, but I would not really count on it because of, again, daily volatility. If on average you know that this token or like this asset— I'm going to use forex as an example— you know that historically speaking, euro only moves anywhere between 50 to 60 pips for the day and you set a target that's like 100 pips away. Yeah, you know, some days you're going to get outliers and your target's going to get hit, but chances are If you look at the odds, if you look at the probabilities, you're likely going to stay within that 50-60 pip window. So this is what I'm doing here on Bitcoin, where on average we're expecting $2,000, maybe $2,500 worth of movement. And so in this sense, this target makes sense. Uh, this one at $60,700, not so much. So I would expect this to get hit sometime later during the week though, especially if we get that bearish kind of confirmation throughout the rest of today. If that happens, great, right? We're just going to jump in tomorrow and just continue trading this. Now one thing's for sure though, like even if we end up missing— like even if today ends up being like No trade or whatever. As long as we close bearish, we have a really good setup heading into tomorrow and Friday where we can just kind of ride the wave and ride the momentum all the way down to like $60,000. And if there is one final lesson that I can impart to you before I end this relatively long daily video is that a lot of you have struggles when it comes to momentum trading in the sense of selling lower and buying back lower. But right now I've already kind of painted the full picture in terms of everything that's lining up so far in terms of the daily chart, in terms of the 1-hour chart, in terms of the 5-minute chart. Everything's pointing towards that. Downside, even the weekly chart. Heck, so if you understand that, okay, you are overall bearish and this is very likely going to be the target, and even if you don't, if you, even if you're not confident that this will be the target, you're at least confident of the direction, you need to get comfortable with just selling lower and buying back lower. Because just because you missed the initial entry, let's face it, like, we're not always going to get the initial entry. Neither do I. And yet I still make really good money just riding the wave because that's what happens when you ride the wave. You get confirmation, right? Over here, you still have to, you know, take a guess, right? Okay, this is It's the start of the breakdown. I'm still going to take a bet here, but I can't know for sure if this is truly the breakdown or if it's just going to potentially sweep out the liquidity and then stop me out later. But when you jump in on momentum, like boom, right? You've got to reframe your mind because it's true. When you jump in with momentum, confirmation's already in. You cannot argue that this is not bearish at the moment. And that's the beautiful thing about momentum trading and why I love it so much. And honestly, if you learn this as well, this will unlock so much in your trading, which by the way, if you'd like to learn this full system, feel free to just click the first link in the description box below. So like half of the people that join our program get funded. That is a success rate that is unprecedented in the trading industry because nobody really cares. But we do. We do everything in our power to get you like a point of success because truly, like, we're honestly sick of like this trading industry where there's very little transparency and most people just take your money and, you know, kind of run, you know. But yeah, with that said, it's been a long, long enough video so far. A lot to break down though. Because FOMC. But if there are any updates, I'm going to post on my X. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.