In this solo market commentary, The Art of Crypto provides a short‑term Bitcoin trade plan for the first week of January 2023. He explains how a bullish order block at the 0.705 level and recent price consolidation around the 0.618–0.705 zones set up a potential move toward $17‑$18k. Using daily and 1‑hour charts, he demonstrates a technique for identifying bullish and bearish order blocks, then applies Fibonacci‑based standard‑deviation targets (‑0.5, ‑0.618) to set TP levels around $16,964‑$17,000. He ties the trade outlook to upcoming macro events—FOMC, PMI, non‑farm payroll, unemployment—and argues that the direction of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and upcoming CPI/energy price dynamics will ultimately decide whether Bitcoin spikes toward $20k or falls to $14‑$15k. He stresses patience, risk management, and the importance of watching the DXY’s potential bottom before committing larger positions.
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What's up everybody, welcome to 2023! Happy New Year to all of you, and in this video we're gonna kick off the new year with an analysis on Bitcoin. I'm going to be telling you exactly what's going to happen over the next few days and some important news events that you need to keep in mind, and exactly how to trade them so that you can make money while everyone else in the markets are losing money. So without any further ado, let's just dive right into it. Firstly, I would like to preface this video by saying that I posted this yesterday Where I was looking to go long on Bitcoin at this point right here. Now that actually worked out because right now price is, well, pumping. The only problem is that the first entry right here got stopped out, but that is no problem at all because given that your direction is correct, you can always just re-enter whenever you get another opportunity, and that I did. So I already saw it coming, like basically like I set TP1 here, and I already saw this coming yesterday. And I'm gonna just give you a quick explanation as to how I predicted this. So firstly, it's very important to understand what is happening recently. The reason why I haven't made a video on Bitcoin basically since the middle of December is because, well, there's nothing much to talk about. The only thing that was noteworthy was the fact that you have this bullish order block right here and Bitcoin retraced all the way back here. This is, this is where I bought, and I was expecting Bitcoin to go from here to like basically either $17,400 or even $17,800. Clearly that hasn't happened yet, but it doesn't mean it will not happen. So just to give you some context, this bullish order block happens to be located right at the 0.705, which is the optimal trade entry from the macro range, from this low to this high. So when you retrace back here, that's a very good opportunity for you to buy to head higher. So basically With this theory in mind, like with this concept in mind, we are actually expecting Bitcoin to go higher. But is that actually going to happen? I'm going to explain to you in just a little bit. But basically what I saw was you have been consolidating around the 618, right? 618, 705, been consolidating for very long. And yesterday— now this is going to be a quick little technique for you guys to help you guys in your trading. This is something that is very applicable across, well, all disciplines, and it's basically using the daily chart. All you wanna see is when a candle, like when a down candle gets traded through, for example, over here, this candle trades through this down candle. This basically, right, the moment this candle closes, which was yesterday, right? Yesterday morning during the New York time, this candle closed. And the moment that this candle closes, this candle immediately gets confirmed as a bullish order block. And when you get a bullish order block, the next candle that opens, I want you to notice how the candle open was over here, right? This is the candle open, and after it opened, it actually traded down into— guess where— the bullish order block before going up, right? It's a very simple technique. You can apply this on the bearish side as well. The moment this candle gets traded through by the next candle, right, basically this becomes a bearish order block. And I want you to see how the next candle, even though it opens here, it trades up into the bearish order block before going down. It's as simple as that. And all you have to do next is, well, determine TP points. And in this case, I'm actually expecting Bitcoin to go to TP1 today, like later during the New York session, which is probably when this video is going to be posted. So during New York, there are a couple of very important events that you guys need to keep an eye out for, which is the fact that today we have FOMC, we have PMI, tomorrow we have non-farm payroll, and then on Friday we have unemployment rate and Well, basically just very, very important stuff. And the reason why I bring up these news events is not because I'm going to tell you, oh, you know, this is because of these news events you want to short it or whatever, but we can try to make an educated guess as to what's going to happen. Firstly, during FOMC today, given that today is FOMC, usually during FOMC you tend to get moves that go like up and down or like down and up, right? It looks like a V, or in this case it looks like an A. And you— this is consistent across like every FOMC. If I just go on to the chart, you can see exactly when FOMCs happen. And it's during days like this, right? Tuesday, you know, that's FOMC. That, that's an FOMC candle right there. Goes up, goes down, right? The key is to identify, is it going to go up first or is it going to go down first? So what I'm expecting is that today during the FOMC, or when you get close to the FOMC, you're going to wick, right, this TP1 very aggressively. And TP1 is a range high. I want you to imagine now that on the daily chart you're trading between this range and this range, and it It doesn't get any simpler than that. All you have to do is identify the ranges, and if, if you take out the range low, then you just target the range high. If you take out the range high, then there is a chance it will just target the range low or somewhere in the discount zone. In this case, this order block has already been filled, so maybe, right, maybe FOMC is probably gonna wick the range high very aggressively and then wick downwards back into this bullish order block for you to get another entry before the ultimate move upwards. Now let me tell you a little bit about how I got this target. It's basically just from the 1-hourly chart. Now all you have to do to come to this target is just take a fib, identify the most extreme points on your chart, and all you have to do is go from range low, range high, and then you want to look for a -0.5 standard deviation expansion. So that comes in around like around this point. For me, I'm going to set my TP just slightly lower at this bearish order block over here because I want to take my profit before other people do. Everyone is probably going to look at the same level, and when I say everyone, I mean the market makers. So I'm going to want to take my profit before the market maker takes it from me. That's why I'm going to set my TP at the bearish order block instead of waiting for a -0.5 standard deviation. Here's another pro tip for all of you watching. You've probably never ever used -1 or -0.5, but basically just think of this as standard deviations. So if you take this range and you divide it by half, right, that's about there. So from this point to this point is like, that's a 0.5 standard deviation. A 1 standard deviation would be you take this range to this range and you extend it like by 1 point upwards, right? Something like that. That's standard deviation. And this is based on mathematics and it works superbly well in the markets because the algorithms that are programmed to deliver price action are programmed based on these standard deviations. They're programmed on fibs. And usually whenever you break out of a range, either you break out of, You know, you range high, you expand upwards, or you break the range low and you expand downwards. It's a very good practice for you to identify the -0.5 to the -0.618. -0.618 is simply the golden number for the Fibonacci extension, and this is standard deviation. And you will find that most often the ranges, once it expands very aggressively, it'll stop somewhere between here, or at most it'll go for a -1 standard deviation. But usually this happens much more than this one. And so that's a very easy way for you to do targets. And you can even apply this to many, other situations. For example, based on this trade here, I don't know if you can see this, but I do have a fib from here to here. Yesterday when I was trying to determine this entry, I drew the fib from here to here because the move started from here to here. And so I'm just looking for— if I want to figure out where my target should be, I just have to draw a fib and then I just look for -0.5, which just happens to line up with TP1 pretty well. So if price gets to $16,964 or $17K, then that is going to be my TP. And you'll very much like very likely you're going to see as long as you drew this fib right, as long as you identified the expansions right, then you're probably going to see some kind of a top or some kind of a bottom forming at these standard deviation you know levels. And that's that's a pro tip that you probably have never heard anywhere else before. So basically the breakdown is I'm expecting some kind of move aggressively upwards during FOMC today. Maybe you're going to get a retrace right depending on. Actually, this all depends on FOMC, whether it's bullish news or if it's bearish news, because the next FOMC, the next important FOMC meeting, is going to be on the 3rd of February, I believe, which is next month. And if basically this FOMC is going to set the stage for bullish or bearish price action over the upcoming month, so depending on how that news comes out, you're either going to pump all the way back to what was my previous target you're gonna pump either all the way back to $20K or you're gonna go on the steep descent to the $14K levels. And there is one thing that basically is going to determine all of this. And honestly, right now it's not looking too good and I'll explain why. So I want you to look at the DXY. This is the US dollar index. And the reason why I bring up this chart is because the US dollar index is inversely correlated to Bitcoin. Now, one of the reasons back in November, I believe, I was predicting Bitcoin to go back to 28K, or at least at the minimum 25K, and we were well on our way to doing that. And one of the key metrics that I used to identify that was the DXY. Basically, I saw that DXY had broken structure for the first time in a very long time. You had just broken this parabola. You can see here, this parabola right here. You've just broken the parabola to the downside. You, you know, quote unquote retested the parabola, and then you broke down. And I was expecting DXY to like basically I saw this coming and here's here's why I mentioned this when the DXY goes down Bitcoin goes up so basically I want you to remember back in March of 2020 is when Bitcoin started going straight up right that was during the 2020 bull market and when did that start well that started when the DXY started going down and similarly on the inverse side of the equation if you remember back in November 2021 or December or like basically the beginning of 2022 DXY started doing really really aggressive move upwards And that's when Bitcoin started going aggressively downwards, right? And that doesn't just apply to Bitcoin, it applies to the stock market, it applies to basically every risk asset because every risk asset out there is inversely correlated to the DXY. It makes sense. Like the definition of a risk asset is that it's risky. And when the markets are not in a very good state or when the economy is not in a very good state, it becomes very risky to be holding onto risk assets. And so people sell their risk assets in favor of USD. That's just one factor. The other factor is that as the USD gets stronger, for example, you have the stock market. Let's say Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin's, yeah, let's use Bitcoin. Let's say Bitcoin is inverse, like correlated to the USD, right? Bitcoin against USD. If USD goes up, Bitcoin goes down, right? That's just common sense. If USD goes down, Bitcoin goes up. Common sense, right? It's a very simple correlation, but that's all you need to know. So basically the reason why I bring this up is that at the moment, DXY, I do think it's still gonna go lower. I do think because if I just pull up the weekly chart right now, you can see that In terms of the bigger picture, I have been looking at the 0.5 area. If I draw a fib right from this low, like this macro low to this macro high right here, I'm still looking for a move to the 0.5 or even until like 101, basically 102 to 101.6. I pretty much have been right about DXY's moves since 2021, basically, which is like 1.5 years ago. And I saw this whole thing coming. I saw this coming as well. The only problem was that Bitcoin was supposed to to go to $25K if FTX didn't happen. It's a pity, but it is what it is. It's a black swan event, so be it, we move on. But at the moment, I'm still expecting DXY to find some kind of a bottom at around this area. So the target remains to be there. And if it keeps going down to the 0.5, which is another like 1.5, maybe 2% lower, then that is going to give Bitcoin some room to run to about $18K, which lines up with our previous analysis. And lines up with my ultimate profit target on Bitcoin. Now, is that actually going to happen? I'm not sure. It all depends on the news that comes out this week. If it favors the USD, if it favors— like, it depends on whether it's bullish or bearish news for risk markets. If they're going to keep raising rates and saying that, oh, inflation is, inflation is getting bad— which, honestly, talking about inflation, there's something you guys really need to know. Um, over the last couple of months, the CPI reports have been showing that inflation has indeed been going down. But if you look carefully at the report, you can see that within the CPI report, one of the biggest contributing factors to CPI going down, or one of the biggest contributing factors to inflation going down, is actually the fact that energy prices have been going down. But we all know that due to the recent midterm elections back in November, like the US government was basically subsidizing the energy costs out of their own pocket by using the petroleum reserves or, you know, stuff like that. So this, like the CPI being lower is actually just being artificially inflated. So this CPI being lower is, I don't say this as a pun, but it's been artificially inflated by the government and this is not sustainable. It's going to crumble soon, sooner or later. So expect CPI to become bad eventually. It's just that it depends on when, right? It's either gonna be today, next month, or within the next 3 months. But it is not sustainable, and I expect the US government to, you know, come out and announce that, hey, you know, inflation's actually still pretty bad and we're gonna have to keep raising rates. And if that happens, then the US dollar is going to keep getting stronger. And if that happens, then that is going to set the stage for Bitcoin to go back to $15K or $14K. Either way, whenever that happens, I'm going to come up with a new video. I'm going to brief you all exactly on how to take advantage of this situation. For now, sit tight, wait for FOMC. And wait for all the news events to come out this week first before you do anything. At the moment, in this first week of January 2023, patience is going to pay very big time, and I highly recommend being patient for now, at least for this week, especially if you're not really sure what you're doing. For now, take care. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
