In this single‑speaker video, The Art of Crypto breaks down the short‑ and medium‑term outlook for Bitcoin ahead of the upcoming CPI report and other macro events. He explains how liquidity pools above swing highs and below swing lows drive price moves, and why market makers exploit stop‑loss clusters to create sharp retracements. The presenter links the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to Bitcoin, showing that a weakening dollar historically supports price gains, and cites the historical tendency of October mid‑term election cycles to act as bottoms for risk assets. He introduces a "level‑3" market phase model to describe the current accumulation and potential breakout, and uses Fibonacci retracements (especially the 0.618‑0.705 "golden pocket") and bullish order blocks to pinpoint entry zones. Three DCA levels (~$26.5k, $20.3k, $19.4k) are suggested, with clear stop‑loss and target zones (TP1 $22k, TP2 $23‑$25k) and associated risk‑to‑reward multiples. Throughout, he warns against confirmation bias, urging probabilistic thinking and readiness for any CPI outcome. The video concludes with a call to subscribe and a promotion for a paid Discord community where his trades are shared.
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What's up, boys? Let's talk about Bitcoin. Is this pump going to last? Is this retrace going to bring us back down to $18K? What is going to be the next move for Bitcoin heading into this week? What is going to be your best opportunity for Bitcoin as well as crypto over the upcoming week? If you want to figure any of this out, stick around to the end of the video. Now, before I actually get into it, just remember that on Thursday we have a CPI report from the Federal Reserve. Now, this matters because usually These kinds of big events such as non-farm payroll, you have CPI, you also have FOMC. Events like this tends to bring a lot of volatility to the markets. Last week I've made a couple of videos about the FOMC, and if I just go into the 1-hourly chart, you can see exactly what is the effect of FOMC. Now take a look at this candle right here. We predicted this one and I taught you guys how to take advantage of it. However, I was expecting actually for the price to go below $20K at $19,960 because there is just relatively equal lows over here which could prove to really good liquidity for you to take out. Now, why do I talk about liquidity? Well, I want you to understand that the markets move based on liquidity. Above every swing high and below every swing low, you have liquidity. Whenever you break above a previous range high, for example over here, you get a huge retrace. Why does this happen? Well, let's assume that all the traders that are placing the stop loss above this high right here, everyone is congregated at this area. Now, why are they congregated there? Well, think back to your lessons when you were learning about trading. Chances are you probably learned to put your stop loss when you're shorting above previous swing highs and your stop loss for longs below previous swing lows. Why is that? Well, because you are taught that this is quote unquote support— sorry, resistance— and you're taught that quote unquote this is support. If price breaks support, then it's going to keep going lower, when in fact that is the opposite is true. When you take out resistance, quote unquote resistance, you tend to dump. Why is that? Well, everybody that got stopped out here would have bought the assets, right? If you're shorting and you get stopped out, you're market buying. So you get a lot of buyers, right? Willing buyers at high prices. And guess who's selling to you? The market makers. They're going to sell to you, they're going to bring the markets down because there are going to be a lot of retail traders who go long once resistance is broken. And they're going to be like, oh, resistance is broken, it's going to go to the moon. And that's when a lot of people become willing— again, willing buyers at high prices. And when the market makers reverse the markets Everybody that went long here is gonna get stuck, and eventually they're just either gonna get stopped out or they're gonna get liquidated. Stopped out because they maybe put their stop loss below quote-unquote resistance, they get stopped out, or they just get liquidated. And same thing goes for support. So what I was expecting last week during FOMC meeting was something like this, right? Now I did expect this up move here. The only thing is I placed my order at 19,960, which is a real pity because this was Absolutely perfect. But let's now try to figure out the next move. So last week during non-farm payroll, we got this move upwards, and you can see that before non-farm payroll, the price was pretty much just doing nothing. And we're getting the same situation this week with CPI coming later on Thursday. So what I would highly recommend you doing is expect some volatility come Thursday and before that time, right? Basically, Thursday is going to be sort of the make or break moment for Bitcoin, if the CPI report comes out pretty, pretty bad, then you're gonna expect Bitcoin to go all the way back down to $19,400, which is the level that we have been talking about for like 3 weeks at this point. This is basically the level that I'm looking for in order to get into the highest conviction Bitcoin swing trade. And this applies to basically most other cryptos as well because, well, most other cryptos are pretty tied to Bitcoin. But let's say that the CPI report is going to give you a good result, then it's gonna be totally different. Now, Do I know whether the CPI report is going to come out good or not? That's not really the point. The point in the market, which I see a lot of beginners screw up on, is trying to predict what is the next move for the market, or trying to predict where bottoms and tops are going to be. Now, we can make an educated guess based on the technical factors as well as the fundamental factors as to where a potential bottom or top may be, but a lot of people place Predictions. Like they'll set a limit here. They'll set a stop loss long before the price actually hits it, and that could be a good idea. But the problem is a lot of people really go deep into confirmation bias and just like okay, all these factors say it's true, so it must be true. It must happen, and you must never fall into that trap. The only thing certain about the markets is that it's never certain. So instead of trying to make a prediction, we simply be prepared for any scenario that might happen. So in this case, if the CPI report is good, then I'm going to expect some kind of a retrace to either this block here or this block which Bitcoin price currently is at at the moment. The reason why I expect that is because if I draw fib from low to high, right, this low, this high, because this move consists like the move is sort of like this, and I can see that price is coming back into the 0.618 at the moment. Now could price do a deeper retrace back into the 786? Absolutely. But if CPI report comes out bullish, then what's likely going to happen is by Thursday you're going to find support here and price is just going to absolutely just take off. And what is the target for this move? I've already mentioned it time and time again, but I believe within Q4 of this year, which means before the end of December, I'm expecting to see a $23K Bitcoin. As for the reasons for that, I've already mentioned it in my prior videos, but I'm just going to briefly go over it. Basically The DXY, which denotes the strength of the US dollar, has faced significant like resistance. If I just go onto the weekly chart, and again, I know I might sound like a broken record at this point, but it's very important to understand that the DXY is highly correlated to the Bitcoin markets and just risk markets. So for example, if I draw this curve right here and I draw it all the way up there, you can see that within this curve we have recently broke this curve, right? So this is known as a parabolic curve. Whenever you break a parabola, you tend to retrace quite hard. In my opinion, I think Within the next 3, 4, maybe 5 months, we will probably go retrace all the way back to the 0.5. Because again, I'm just going to explain a quick market maker concept to you. Within any given range, I want you to draw a fib from low to high or whatever. And point is, you wanna identify where is the 0.5. The algorithms that move these markets, which they pretty much account for 80% of daily trading volume, their sole purpose is to keep the market in a state of equilibrium. Or balance. And what can be more balanced than keeping the price right in the middle, which is a 0.5? So when you trade in a premium for too long, that means the market is not in a state of balance, right? Because you're in too much of a premium for too long. So then the algorithms would like to bring the price back down to the mid-range. In this case, this is— so you could sort of say this is mean reversion. And similarly, if you've been trading at a discount for too long, then similarly you go to the 0.5. That is usually a very reasonable target for any asset when it comes to using this theory. So this is not like— this is a pretty long-term prediction, probably 3 to 5 months, maybe even 6 months. But in the immediate short term, I believe that there is a very good chance that you go to 107. And if you do go to 107, or maybe even 106.5, that is easily, right? I just want to put— paint this out for you. When the DXY went from 113.6 to at this point right now, 110, Bitcoin went from basically $17K. Pull up the 4-hourly so that this is a little bit more clear. Bitcoin basically went from $18K all the way up to $21K. So that's a $3K pump from a 3-point deficit over the DXY. If the DXY goes down by another 3 points, oh, I mean, it doesn't take a genius for you to figure out what is going to happen to Bitcoin. Now that is just one of the factors. The other one definitely has to do with the midterm elections, which I've mentioned before already. Basically In every year since 1942, in every year that has had a midterm election, which is 80— like, which is 40 instances so far where there is a midterm election happening in October, right? The month of October tends to be the bottom for most asset classes, including especially when it comes to risk-on assets such as Bitcoin, such as crypto, such as the stock market. So given that crypto moves basically hand in hand with the stock market, And the fact that we have 80 years of data to support the fact that October has been a month where these assets find their bottom and then they just basically go up over the next few months. There is a lot of evidence to support and a lot of technical data to support the fact that we are expecting, still expecting a very bullish Q4 for Bitcoin. So in this case, my priority is going to be looking for longs rather than looking for shorts. Now you can still make money doing shorts, But in order to make the biggest return, I am still expecting a $23K Bitcoin minimum up to a $25K Bitcoin during Q4 of this year. Hopefully this gives you more insight into exactly what factors I'm looking at. And again, it's very important that you look at some traditional market data because these markets, especially crypto, is highly correlated to the stock market, and the stock market is highly correlated to just macroeconomics. You know, such as the DXY, such as Federal Reserve monetary policy, amongst other things. So that was just a couple of quick tips. Hopefully you've learned a lot of things from this video. And I still haven't told you exactly what's my plan, so let's get into that. So the reason why I've drawn 1, 2, 3 over here is because of this thing known as a level 3 formation. Now it is very important to understand that most markets, right, most of the time the markets move in something like this, right? Where you get phase 1, 2, right? So this is number 1 of the markup phase, number 2 of the markup phase, level 3, right? Level 3, this is generally the top. Level 4 of the drawdown, and then 5, right? Or you can say this is 1 and this is 2. Basically, if you go back to most markets, you will see that it tends to move in somewhat of a pattern like this, right? Most impulses happen in 2 moves. For example, you can say that this is impulse 1— sorry, this is impulse 1 and that is impulse 2. Right? You get 1, 2, 3. This is level 3, and then you get accumulation. And accumulation has been going on for quite some time now. But within a larger sort of level 3 formation, you have the presence of a smaller level 3 formation, which at the moment sort of looks like this, right? You have 1, you have 2, and it would be realistic to expect a level 3 formation over there. So that is sort of my immediate-term plan over the course of this month for Bitcoin. Now, I don't want to sound bullish too fast too soon. And earlier in the video, I mentioned something about confirmation bias and not falling prey to that. Confirmation bias is basically like you come up with a bias and then you just stick with that bias no matter what. Like, let's say the price suddenly starts dumping beyond a certain point and you're still like, oh no, no, no, I've been told that Bitcoin is going to be bullish, or I've been told that, um, this economic data supports Bitcoin being bullish, so I am bullish on Bitcoin. No, no, no, absolutely it's going to keep going up. So it's very important as a trader for you to exercise what I like to call objective thinking or probabilistic thinking. We take into account all, you know, the possibilities, but we don't get too bought in into a certain sort of bias. Now, I do believe that at the moment, the probability of Q4 being a really good quarter for Bitcoin is still very much there, but I have some data to back that up. But what if, you know, things start becoming bearish? What are the levels of invalidation that we want to look for? So I'm going to be the first one to say that if you break this low over here at, uh, $20K, then you're definitely going to go back to $19,400. Now in order to figure out where— what are the points of invalidation for Bitcoin, like basically if this point gets hit, Bitcoin's gonna go all the way back like to like $10K or something— is I do not want to see this low right here at $19,000 get broken. At the moment I don't think it's going to get broken. Of course we will never know until For example, if CPI prints really bearish and CPI prints way higher than expected, then that is going to be a catalyst that leads to Bitcoin going below $19K. But at the moment, I don't believe that is going to be the case. What I do believe is that if Bitcoin returns to either $20,300 or even $19,400, that is going to be an opportunity for you to get some Bitcoin, or even right here, you know, at current prices at $26,500-ish. This is a good price to get into Bitcoin, right? So these are basically sort of my 3 DCA levels. Of course, I would prioritize the lower 2. Not sure if we will get to lower 2, but in both instances, right, I'm looking to be a buyer of Bitcoin just based on the data. Things could change, of course, but if they change, you will definitely hear about it on this channel. So let's talk about a really short-term target for Bitcoin at the moment. I think this is a target that could get hit this week and I'll give you sort of my idea on some potential entries. One of them is definitely going to be here, you know, right where Bitcoin price is. You go for a long, you place your stop loss beneath the block, right? This block is known as a bullish order block, and a bullish order block is basically an institutional area of value. And it just so happens that this bullish order block— draw fib— lines up at the 0.618 of this fib if you draw from low to high. Now, why does the 0.618 matter? Treat it as the golden pocket. This is the money zone. When you come back, I remember what I said earlier about price trading in a premium for too long and you need to bring it back into a discount. Well, the 0.618 and the 0.705 are optimal entries when you are getting into a retrace, and that's why it's called a Fibonacci retrace, and that's why it's called the golden pocket. Now, is this going to be the best entry? I think not. Again, I still believe that this will be the best entry, but I'm not sure if we will get it that soon. Sometimes the market makers like to be naughty and they're just not going to give us the best entry. They're going to play around with our feelings. They're not going to bring the price down even though there is clear liquidity to be taken here. And honestly, it would make sense because if the trend is going to continue to be bullish, right, in a bullish trend, I want you to visualize this: these lows are always higher lows and the highs are always higher highs. That means the highs are always going to be attacked in an uptrend, right? You have this high, you get attacked. You have this high, you get attacked. But lows are protected. So going based on that theory, you can see that, you know, that's a low, protected, protected. You never break the low. In this case here, you did wick below the low, but that's to take liquidity, so let's not count that. So, you know, low protected, protected, protected so far. So going based on that theory, this might actually be the only entry we might get. Either way, I'm still looking to be a buyer of Bitcoin. Well, ideally Start buying only after the CPI report comes out. I would much rather wait and be patient until we get a confirmed sort of trend heading into the next couple of weeks. Again, I do not recommend that you try to predict what's going to happen with the CPI and take bets before that. It's much better to just wait and react. So that's my plan, looking to be a buyer of Bitcoin, and this would be a second entry as well. The target would be $22K as the TP1, which would give you a 6.7R Trade, and target 2 at $23K, which would give you a 10R trade, which is, well, very, very good. If you do get it at $19,400, I believe the target should be much higher. You should completely ignore $22K, and what you should aim for is going to be $23K as your TP1, which would give you a 17R, and $25K for TP2, which would be a 26.5R trade. So hopefully this gives you very good insight for basically the upcoming Couple of weeks. If you appreciate these kinds of market maker tips and giving you an analysis from the market maker's perspective and giving you all the important information that you need to know, just subscribe to the channel so that you don't miss another one of these videos. And if you want to get access to all of my trades as well as my team's trades and all of the market reports that I'm posting inside the private Discord group, the link will be in the description box below. We've been killing it lately in the Discord group. I believe there was someone that came in here and immediately made back a yearly subscription fee off of one trade. So shout out to David. We just spoke on the phone. Shout out to you. But yeah, cheers. Bye-bye.
