Is The Top In For Bitcoin?

So in last week's video, I said to expect a little rejection before hitting $100K, and I also gave you guys the exact zone where you want to be buying the dip and not to buy into green candles because then you're falling prey to FOMO. And so far, after 1 week, this is going exactly as planned. So in today's video, I'm going to give you an update on the Bitcoin situation because going from close to $100K to $93K in pretty much 1 candle is leading a lot of people to be concerned that this is the end of the bull run. And I'm going to tell you right away that it's not. And the reason for that is because the order flow is still intact. Like, people talk about trends and higher highs and higher lows, but what I'm more interested in is the order flow, i.e., how is the smart money doing? How is price being delivered? And I want you to take a look at past order flow. You're going to understand what I mean. So let's take a look at the previous bull run where things were going up very, very clearly. I want you to just observe the majority of the value areas never really gets broken. For example, this is a volume area, never really gets broken. Price forms a value area, comes down, retests it. Over here as well, you have a value area, price goes up, retest, retest, retest. You know, these value areas in general does not get broken. Now of course, the more volume that you have concentrated around this area for example, you spent quite a few months in this consolidation here where there was a lot of trading volume. Of course, that is going to be much stronger support compared to this, for example. And but for the most part, you can see again right here, price breaks above, comes down, retest value area, breaks above, comes down, retest value area. Like, for the most part, order flow— this is how to read order flow, by the way— this is an indication that the smart money does not yet want this trend to end and they are still buying the dips. And so Now we are sitting in a very similar situation on Bitcoin where just because price has been going straight up for the last 2 weeks, we haven't had much of an opportunity to retest any sort of value area. And you can see right here, this box is exactly that. The volume profile also supports this theory. And so this remains the first level where you want to look to buy a dip. And until this level gets broken, like, there is absolutely zero cause for concern. If anything, like, look for a dip at around 90 to $85K, and chances are that you're gonna bounce to hit $100K and beyond is also very high. Now what's interesting to note as well is that the moment you pull up CoinGlass, you will see that there is a lot of liquidations right above $100K, meaning the moment you shoot up above $100K all the way till $105K, actually you have a lot of liquidations. Now the exact figures of this, based on what I can see from Twitter from the people who are studying the heatmaps, is that there is about a billion dollars worth of liquidations the moment we go past $100K. So what I'm trying to tell you is that this is like loading the spring, stopping out all of the people that are FOMO buying the green candles into $100K thinking that, you know, this is still just going to go straight up. Obviously they were late to the party. So right now there are a lot of long traders right now that are trapped, and so you stop them all out, fill the value area. This is, by the way, a smart money area that you want to be looking for. We're not trying to trade alongside retail here, so this is where the smart money is looking at. Boom. And then you— this essentially becomes the spring to propel it above $100K. And the fact that there is so many short liquidations right above $100K means that when we do cross $100K, it's going to be pretty explosive. At the very minimum, you should go all the way to $105K. And even if you don't, that's perfectly fine because uptrend still intact and you're just going to keep buying dips and essentially buying high and selling higher. Now what happens if this zone gets broken though? Does that mean that the bull run is over? Also no, because this is simply the first retest area. We have seen instances in the past where you break below previous value areas. For example, here you retest this once, but eventually you do break below it. But when you do break below it, guess where you are coming to? You're coming into a fair value gap. This is also a smart money area. Now, right now we are also in a very, very similar situation where not only do we have a very obvious fair value gap right here, we have 2, which means that— And just to give you an explanation on why this is so important, when price goes straight up, basically You've probably been in a situation, especially on the low-cap coins, where when price is going straight up or straight down, your limit orders does not get filled. And even after price is past your limit order, it's still open. And so this creates a gap in price, right? Inefficiency of price where during this move here, everyone who was going long did not get filled. And the market makers notice, but most importantly, they are also a part of these orders. And this is why you see a lot of the times that when you fill some sort of fair value gap, the explosion Out of the fair value gap tends to be really explosive, right? Price literally just dips into this fair value gap and boom, right? You go straight up. And so right now we have two fair value gaps. Now what's important here is that not all fair value gaps are created equal. If we were to draw just a fib from when the move began, right? This straight up move to the top here, we we will see that this upper fair value gap does not fall under the zero point five. Now this is a technique that you can use to filter out bad. Bad fair value gaps and bad order blocks. You've probably been in a situation where maybe you're learning supply-demand, support-resistance, whatever, and for some reason, like, the probability isn't as high as what the videos teach you. Well, this is a very simple method to filter it out. Within every given trading range, there is always a premium and a discount. A premium is just anything that is above the 0.5, and a discount is anything that's below. Now, the easiest explanation that I can give you on how premium-discount works is a premium would be like me selling you an iPhone for $5,000. You're probably not going to buy that because that is way above the market price of the iPhone, right? You'll be paying a premium for it. But if I were to sell you a brand new iPhone 15 Pro Max for $500, you're probably going to take it, right? Even if you don't use it yourself, you can sell it and make a big profit. And this is the mentality that you want to have when you're in the markets, because this is also how the smart money thinks. Nobody makes money, or rather, you make way more money buying low and selling high than you do buying high and selling higher. Not to say that buying high and selling higher doesn't work, but it's also important just to understand the mindset that these smart money players are using, because that's where the biggest positions are going to be concentrated at. So now we can refine the fair value gap to 2 very key areas. The first one's going to be at around $83,400. This is the 0.5, right? This is the midpoint of this fair value gap that also lines up with the midpoint of this range. If you remember This is the 0.5 line, and so that's going to be area number one. Very high probability in the event that this one fails, boom, you're going to tap into this and you're going to very likely see a bounce. Now even if you don't make a new high from here, you will at the very least get a 5%, 3% bounce. And for those of you who enjoy taking quick trades in and out, this is one of— this is going to be one of those sniper trades where you're going to catch the exact bottom and price is going to bounce by, you know, 3 to 5%. You're gonna cash in and get out. This is not to say, and only time will tell by the way, if this remains the absolute bottom that leads Bitcoin to $100K and beyond. The second area, which is much more interesting for me because it also lines up with the true monthly open right there, if you can see that orange line, that is the true monthly open. Sorry if it's not going to look very good on screen, but true monthly open and true opens in general, whether it be the true daily, whether it be the true weekly, or even For example, as of the time that I'm recording this video at the moment, we are in the London session, and even the true London open— all of these true opens, I'm not going to explain it in this video because it's going to take some time, but they simply act as really high probability areas for price to bounce off of. Because again, this is rooted in smart money trading. Very little retail traders actually look at the daily open, the weekly open, the yearly open as key levels, but this is what the institutional players are doing. So This makes the bottom fair value gap insanely high probability, and so we can refine this zone all the way down to starting from here to here. Why this area specifically? First of all, not only is this a psychological number at 80K, but number 2, this lines up with the top of the daily fair value gap. Number 3, lines up with the true monthly open. And number 4, this lines up with the 0.618 within this Fibonacci retracement, which if If you are familiar with Fibonacci retracements at all, you know that the 0.618 is the golden pocket, and this is going to be a high probability zone. So ladies and gentlemen, this is your zone number one—not even zone actually. Let's just remove this and boom! And this is going to be your daily fair value gap 0.5 plus fib 0.5, right? So what notice what I'm doing here? I'm pairing multiple confluences to determine the probability that this is going to be a key area. And number two, this is going to be your true monthly open plus. Daily fair value gap plus Fibonacci 0.618, and so boom! All of a sudden we have two really high probability areas. Of course, this is just a value area or volume area if you want to call it that way right here. And so boom! Right? We have three really high probability dip buying areas where you want to get into Bitcoin. Now even if you just dollar cost average or time your altcoin entries with dollar cost averaging at around these three levels, you're going to do pretty well. Right? This is how crypto works. You sort of just follow Bitcoin, especially if you're trading large caps, mid caps, and to a certain extent even low caps. Of course, memes play a completely different game. They move by themselves, so a little less applicable. But I think most of you watching this video do hold some level of large cap slash mid caps, and this is going to help immensely with timing your entries. And just before I clarify, one last thing. In 48 hours, I'm going to be holding a masterclass, absolutely free by the way, that tells you where I'm going to go through the 3 biggest problems that beginners tend to face, and I'm going to give you the 3 solutions to fix that problem. And at the end of it, I'm going to give you a 3-step framework for just how to succeed in a bull run. If this is your first bull run, or if this is your second bull run, and you just want to figure out what is the missing piece to making everything click, feel free to sign up in the link in the description box below. We are only able to host about 300 people because otherwise Zoom is very likely to break, and we already have about 200 signups. Again, this is completely free. This is not going to be one of those like webinars where I talk about very surface-level stuff. I am actually going to be giving you the playbook and just a lot of value, as I usually do in my videos. Again, it will be in the description box below. It's in about 48 hours, so don't hesitate to sign up, and I will see you guys in that masterclass. But otherwise, going back to Bitcoin now, just to clarify one more thing, I am a big proponent of thinking in probabilities, meaning right now, even though we have a really bullish thesis going on, but it's also important to consider the bearish side of things. And to that, I have to say that first of all, given previous price action for the last couple months, uptrend is still very much intact and it's going to take quite a lot of just a dump to make this uptrend over and to make this bull market over. Like, just to give you an example, if you look at just the daily chart here, first major swing point that you can see on the chart is right here at about $67K. Now, what do I mean by swing point? If you just take a look at a big picture perspective, you can see that price goes from here to here, maybe from here to here, and then this is when the move begins. Now, of course, you can refine this more and say that, you know, this is how the swing points look like, but doesn't change the fact that this is the first major swing point. Now, you can also say that there is a swing low over here. I get it, but this is not exactly a major swing point. So if this low gets broken, we already have a thesis on Why, you know, this is just going to be to stop people out, to shake people out before the next leg of the bull market. But if you were to break this low right here, then yes, the bull market is over. When this low gets broken, you just want to sell the retracement because markets don't go straight down or straight up all the time. You will have retracements. So in this case, boom, you sell here. But again, we want to play the probabilities. This is how you succeed as a trader. Nothing is set in black and white. It's always probabilities. If you're able to always take the higher probability outcome, then guess what? You're gonna have a higher probability of winning than losing. And so in this case, we're just looking at probabilities here. Everything is lining up to the fact that the bull run is still intact. And there is like, again, this low needs to be broken first in order for the bull run to be over. And even if that is the case, it's going to take quite some time. There are going to be many more developments in price that I will be giving an update to. So if you find this perspective of giving you a market update based on the smart money side of things, then make sure you subscribe to this channel because I will be posting many more updates in the future. Drop a like on this video if you find it helpful. Now, just as a little bonus point for all of you that are staying until the end of this video, let's talk about Bitcoin dominance. To those especially that have been through a proper alt season, you know this is nothing close to what can happen during an alt season. And to those people, I want you to pay attention to the Bitcoin dominance chart. At the moment, you have just broken market structure on Bitcoin dominance. Now, even if you were to zoom out all the way, you can see that from this high to this low here, we have literally waited since the end of 2022 or even mid of 2021 Bitcoin dominance to start hitting some kind of a resistance area and to start falling. Because I don't know if you guys remember, but earlier this year we had a fall of Bitcoin dominance from 55% down to 50%, right? That's a 5% drop. And many altcoins did a 10x. For a proper bull season, especially for altcoins to kick in, you need the attention to start flowing away from Bitcoin and to start flowing into the altcoins. Right now, Bitcoin is very much taking all the attention. Every single retail person, even their mom— like, I've had so many just normies came to ask me like, hey, you know, is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? Just to give you an idea on state of the market, like, they just do not understand That yes, the hype is on Bitcoin, but guess what? Hype is on Bitcoin. This is your opportunity to get into the altcoins because when Bitcoin dominance does fall from here, it's going to be a really steep fall. I see Bitcoin dominance hitting like 50% over the next few months and possibly going back down to 40% throughout the course of the next year. Now, of course, these are macro predictions. Humans are terribly bad at predicting, you know, long-term stuff. But based off of this chart, I say we have a pretty reasonable chance to go into a proper alt season starting very soon. And so if you haven't already gotten into altcoins, like I know Ethereum is like up 50%, you know, Solana's up like, for example, from $111 to $260 in the course of the last, you know, 3 months-ish. I know, like, don't get me wrong, I know that they are up, but this is not an excuse for you to miss out on the remaining 10x. Remember what I said earlier, there is nothing wrong with buying high and selling higher. In fact, the people that are most successful in a bull run, right? There are really only 2 types of people that are successful in a bull run. First of all, you buy during the bear market when, you know, fear is at all-time highs and nobody's interested in crypto. Obviously we're way past that point now, so you move on to the second best alternative, which is to buy high and sell higher. What you need to understand about crypto is that this is just purely speculation. There is no real use case for 99.99% of crypto, and even if there was a use case, nobody's really interested in buy crypto because they think it's gonna change the world. There's a reason why stupid meme coins have been taking over throughout this course of the bull run. And you have coins that have really high just use case, for example, AI or cloud computing or Chainlink, for example, oracles. They have way more utility than the meme coins that have no utility. But such is the nature of crypto. Because of this, you never ever wanna set like a fair value price for crypto. Just know that Right now, alt season has not yet begun. A lot of the altcoins have already doubled in price in the last 2 weeks. But as altcoin season begins and you see hundreds of billions of dollars of new money pour into altcoins, their valuations is just gonna 20x from here on out, just like back in 2021, just like back in 2017. So don't miss out on all of these potential gains because you think it's too expensive at the moment. No such thing as expensive or cheap, especially in the markets. There is only uptrend or downtrend. And as long as things remain in an uptrend, buy high and sell higher. It is the playbook for success. And I will get into this in detail during the masterclass this Thursday. So make sure you sign up to the masterclass, first link in the description box below, and I'll see you guys in the next one.