Market Update: Can BITCOIN still go to 35K?

All right, what's up everyone? Welcome back to the weekly market update. In this video, I'm going to give you kind of semi-alarming news regarding Bitcoin, and there is a chance this week that we might start heading down rather than continuing upwards to the target of $35K that we've been talking about for the last 2 months, and I'll explain my reason why. We're going to also talk about Ethereum, and then we're just going to talk about a couple of coins that were recommended by you guys from Twitter. Every week before I film this video, I will ask you guys on Twitter what you would like to see being charted. So if you would like to take part in that, just follow me on Twitter The Art Of Crypto, and let's dive into it. So one of the main things that is driving a Bitcoin dump narrative— well, actually it's 2 things. Essentially, the first one is the fact that if you just look at the chart here, we are trading between these 2 levels, which means that this is your range high and that's your range low. Now you've just taken out the range high, and usually when this happens, you tend to go the opposite direction and take out the range low or even further because This is just the fundamental basis of liquidity. Now I want you to imagine price action as a little fish. Now this fish, price action, is very hungry, right? And then imagine the markets as like an ocean. At any given point, there's going to be some food on top of the ocean near to the surface, and then there's going to be some food closer to the bottom. Now when the food up here has been eaten, obviously the fish has nowhere to go back down in order to look for food. And this is exactly the kind of situation, right? This is up, this is down, the food here eaten. So, you know, this is a pretty high likelihood that the fish is going to go down to just have some food. Now, there is only really one confirmation that I have for this to happen. It doesn't really have much to do with price action because right now price action is unclear as to whether Bitcoin is going to dump or not, other than the fact that on the daily chart it failed to make a higher high. Right? So in order for things to remain bullish, ideally you would've wanted this move here to confirm like a higher high, but instead you sort of like, it's still chopping around essentially, and you don't have a clear direction yet. So price action isn't telling us a lot. So we have to look at this piece of information to make our decision. So basically an ADP report revealed a significant addition of almost 500,000 private sector jobs in June, which was more than double the expected amount. This increase led to a rise in Treasury yields, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might continue its rate hike campaign. Now, for those of you who are not familiar with what I just talked about, essentially when the Fed is hiking the rates, it's called quantitative tightening. And as that name would suggest, it means that the economy is essentially getting tightened, right? Money is flowing out of the markets, people are more defensive, loans get more expensive, whatever. All you need to know is that this is a bearish sign. Now, the opposite of that is quantitative easing, which is what you got during 2020 after the pandemic. Basically, 2020 to 2021, the Fed was printing a ton of money. Interest rates were at zero. That is quantitative easing. Now, easing is very good, which is what we got for the last couple, maybe 2, 3 months, where the Fed sort of eased up on the interest rate hikes and they sort of paused it. And pause is a key word here because something that's paused implies that it is going to continue. In fact, there is a good chance, and by chance I mean traders are now anticipating a 94% chance that the Fed is going to raise interest rates by 25 basis points later on this month. So that is very, very bearish. And that is the single catalyst that will lead to Bitcoin going lower to like $25K or $23K. Now, if that is confirmed and the price action shows us that, you know, price is making like failing to make new highs and it's starting to make new lows, then obviously it's time to get out of your spot bags because it's pretty safe to anticipate a $23K Bitcoin. Now, does this mean that the markets essentially boil down to the Fed on what they're doing with the interest rates? Yeah, essentially every market does. Stock market, Bitcoin, whatever. Everything follows the Fed. The Fed is going to be the sole reason why the markets are going up or down, other than Elon Musk, of course. So with that said, there is also a second scenario that I might be looking at. Essentially, in the event that we do not get the rate hikes this month, then we are still going to be en route to $35K before the end of summer, which means I will be expecting this to happen sometime mid next month. Assume that we don't get the interest rate hikes this month, and this is the second scenario that you want. To look for. Essentially, if we just zoom into the 4-hourly chart, you have a fair value gap over here that has not necessarily been filled. You have a fair value gap here that has been touched a couple of times, but then there is still a decent, like a semi-decent chance that you're going to return to $29,225, and then you're just going to do a quick bounce. So expect this to happen sometime during Tuesday or Wednesday. If you get a situation like this and then the market structure just reverses completely, like how you got with the SEC, you know, quote unquote SEC event, whereby the price just dumps like that in like a 1-hour span and then it reverses completely, which we actually called on Twitter as well as the private Discord group. Check it out. You take out that level here and then I'm just like, hey, go long. That's just a liquidity sweep, right? Goes back to that theory about the fish and price action. So essentially we'll be looking for a, you know, kind of fake move on Tuesday or Wednesday, assuming that we don't get the rate hikes, then this will very likely be the bottom. Either that or, you know, here. But I don't— I really don't expect Bitcoin to retrace that hard in just a singular wick. So this is what I would be looking for. So those are the 2 scenarios. And before I cap off on Bitcoin, feel free to copy my chart because essentially what I've marked out here is the only levels that matter in the short to mid-term. Now that I've actually zoomed out onto the daily chart, there is actually a pretty high likelihood that we might retrace back to— like, if we do get a wick into $29,950, that's going to be a very good level as well because this is the daily fair value gap Gap, right? That's the fair value gap, and that's the 0.5, which tends to be a pretty magic number. So hey, either one, right? You get a wick here and you bounce, cool. You get a wick into here and you bounce, cool. Either way, if you get a bounce, right, that is the keyword, then you're going straight to $35K, and it's just going to be the entire month is just going to be up only is what you're going to get. Yeah, again, back to, back to the chart. Essentially, I've already marked out the only levels that matter at the moment. $35K, this is a key, you know, you could take TP1 here if you would like to. That's the range high, it's level retracement that we're looking for. In the event that you come this low, you know, honestly I don't really even care about that level because if you go that low then you're going to go for the range low. And essentially this is just, this is just the areas where there is the highest amount of food, right? Here, here, here, and here, and, and here. Just 5 levels. Uh, any other level besides this is completely irrelevant and it's just going to add noise into your trading. So that is Bitcoin done. Let's take a look at ETH again. Feel free to mark the chart out. Essentially, these are the levels of liquidity as well as that blue box over there. The blue box remains the target still, but Ethereum is looking a little bit more shaky than Bitcoin because truth be told, you're just in the no man's land. So the only thing that I would look for on ETH is that if you get a daily, like a confirmed daily candle body close beneath 1825, then there's a pretty decent chance that you're gonna just go for a little bit of more of a retrace, maybe to 1725, to this blue box Right here before you bounce near target range highs or even target 2,500, which remains the target. Secondly is like the second scenario I would be looking at is that you know you have liquidity here that has been taken out by this wick. So ideally you just want Ethereum to start bouncing here, and if it does, then you can just momentum trade Ethereum all the way up until 2,100. But again, I would really wait on the Fed, you know whether or not they're raising the interest rates because that's going to determine a lot. Like it's just going to determine how ETH moves. And of course, if Bitcoin dumps. This is this does not need to be said. Ethereum is going to dump even harder, and the ultimate target for an Ethereum dump is going to be at 1600 plus 1420. Now if you get either one of these levels, like 1425 and 1600, like those are pretty good places to buy, like midterm, long term, just a swing trade in order to target like 2100 and even 2500. So that will give you a potential gain of 50 to about 75%. So that is if the next one we're going to be looking at is Compound. This was suggested to us by traders. Sidiums. And essentially every time I look at DeFi coins, especially Compound as well as this other one called Aave, I believe it is just the funniest thing. And also YFI. Like, DeFi coins just do nothing for the absolute longest amount of time, and it's just so boring. Like, for the past year essentially it's just been trading within a— let's see here— within a 100% range, which is actually quite significant actually now that I look at it. But anyways, I digress. Back to the analysis. Right now there are only 2 levels that, uh, you should really look at. That's a range low and that's a range high. Now history would indicate to us that the chances once you hit a range high or once you hit a range low, the chances of you reversing to the other level is pretty high, as you can see what happened over the last year. So given that, you know, range highs has been taken, I would actually be looking for a short here, especially because this was a fairly aggressive move and not a type of move that is usual to compound. Essentially what I'm saying is, depending on how the next few daily candles close, this could really just be a scam pump, and I wouldn't necessarily be looking to buy, and I would be looking for it to return back to range lows. Now, what is the factor that I would be looking at personally? Firstly, it would be simply marking out this level here at $51.64. Now, if we get a daily— a confirmed daily candle body close beneath this level, essentially that What that means is not only have you failed to make a higher high— in fact, you made a lower high— but you also made a lower low after taking out range highs and after a pretty, pretty aggressive move. And I'm talking about like 130% in a week. So could this be a scam pump? Probably. But that is the factor that I would look at. In fact, you know, if you do get those 2 criteria fulfilled, then I would just wait for a little bit of a retrace back higher in order to short this. Back down to range lows, and in this case my target would be you know honestly speaking it would be actually pretty low. A good first TP would be like at $35. Couple of good TP points would be at 47.8 as well as 35.2. Ultimately the target should be at 26 because that is how liquidity works, but I don't think we're going to get to 26 that quickly, especially if Bitcoin starts to pump. Then who knows? This could continue on to form new highs, but that is the scenario that I'm looking at. Ideally, of course, if you're a big believer in DeFi, then I would be looking at this bullish order block. Like, if you want to take a long, if you believe that this thing's going higher, this order block would be a good area to do so. Just at the moment, I've seen how these scam pumps happen, and I'm sure you have seen a lot of times how these scam pumps happen. They are called scam pumps for a reason. But in the event that Compound does go higher, then this is the level that I would be looking at, at $115.6, where You know, it pretty much lines up with the golden pocket if you draw a fib on the macro range. Yeah, that's gonna be a good TP point for Compound. And lastly, we're gonna look at Solana. Now this is like highly, highly popular. Every week there is always 1 or 2 people that are requesting this chart. And I would just first like to say that this was a mistake. I am not always right and I do make mistakes and I am not ashamed to admit it. There is no trader that is right 100% of the time. So do take my opinion with a literal bag of salt because sometimes I can make mistakes. Such as I was expecting Solana because of the SEC news, you know, it would just continue dumping because I sort of mentioned something about how something that's low can still go lower. And at the moment, or at least at that time, I did not see reason for Solana to bounce back. And yet I have been proven completely wrong. But again, no shame in that. Now we just have to figure out what is the next move because like we're traders, right? We just got to get over it and, you know, move on to the next trade. Essentially what you need to know is that the food here has just been taken rather aggressively and This gives us an opportunity to take a short. Now I'll explain why. Because if you look back at Compound, we had a very clear range. And right now I want you to think sort of like one step ahead. This is the range low. In the event that price forms a new trading range, this would be the range low and that would be the range high. So you've just taken out the range high, and until you get a little bit of a retrace, especially on sell-side liquidity here, then you're not going to continue pumping. What do I mean by that? Essentially, when the markets are— or rather, when the market makers want the price to go up, they, they need fuel, right? I want you to visualize again. Um, let's say, let's say, let's go back to that fish analogy. In order for the fish to have enough energy to swim from the bottom of the ocean to the top of the ocean, it needs to eat food along the way. Where is that food? Well, when you are bullish, then the food is going to come from sell-side liquidity. So when, in order to go up, you take food, right? You eat food, eat sell-side liquidity, In order to propel you to higher heights. So that's essentially how the markets work. So if you are bullish, right, then at the minimum you would be looking for a retracement back to $19. If you're bullish, this is where you buy in order to form higher highs. Now if you're bearish, then well, obviously you still just short here and take your TP1 at the sell-side liquidity here at $19. But ultimately your second target should be here at about $16. Now I don't really expect Solana to return back to range lows because if it does, then That just means that Solana is going back to like $10 or something, which is not highly likely. So for now, the short plan is, you know, you short somewhere around here, or especially when you get a swing failure pattern. Essentially, price comes back up in order to, you know, try to form a new high, but then obviously it's going to fail because you don't have enough liquidity, you don't have enough fuel to catapult you higher. And so what ends up happening is you fail to make a higher high, and then it will form a lower high, and then that's what you can short down to here, take the liquidity, and then either go back up or continue downwards. But that is the plan for Solana so far. Again, the ultimate targets are going to be at $26 as well as $37 to the upside. And as for the downside, again, it's going to be at $16 as well as, uh, $19 here. Now if you're super, super bearish, which shouldn't be the case— like, Solana is not going to just go to like $15 or even lower— but if you were super bearish, then the ultimate, you know, long-term target would be $9.6. But you can trust that that will not be hit for the next few months at the very least. And guys, before I cap off this video, if anything I've said in this video did not make sense to you so far, I'm actually about to release a free course that'll explain everything, like the way I look at the markets, liquidity concepts, and I will even give you my exact step-by-step trading strategy. Essentially, you get a blueprint for absolutely free to trade with. All you have to do is sign up to the waitlist down below. Now, I might know what you're thinking— most free courses suck absolute crap. This is not going to be one of them. It is actually going to change the way that you trade. If you're interested, we're limiting the quantity to control the quality. So sign up to the waitlist as soon as you can, and until then, I'll see you in the next market update video. Bye-bye.