Most People Will Lose Money On This Next Bitcoin Move, Here's How Not To

What's up everybody, welcome back to another market update. Now last week I told you that the retracement was going to begin and all we needed was some kind of daily confirmation in order for that to happen. And indeed we got that confirmation just a couple days after posting that video. I also told you to take some profit on your long-term crypto holdings so that you're not stuck holding a bag all the way down to the $30K levels. So this begs the question right now, is the plan still intact? How long will the retracement go and how low will And in the video, I'm going to answer everything and give you a game plan on how you can best tackle the current market conditions. So let's answer the elephant in the room first. How low is Bitcoin going to go? In my opinion, I think it's going to go all the way down to the $30K levels. Firstly, you have relatively equal lows over there, so $35K is 100% going to get hit regardless of what happens. The reason why relatively equal lows matter— this has a lot to do with market psychology. Whenever you have relatively equal lows, retail traders will essentially look at this and see support because it bounced from the same level. And what happens when you have support? Firstly, when price comes into this area, you're probably going to see a huge influx of buys with people setting the stop loss right below. That's number one. Number 2, anybody that went long at any point from here to here would be in quite a significant amount of profit at the moment. And as a market maker, whenever a retail trader makes money, or whenever anybody makes money other than the market makers, they are literally having to pay you out of their own pocket, which means it's in their best interest to cause as many people to lose money as possible. Which also means that anybody who's still in profit at this area, well, you got to come back and take them out so that these dumb people who refuse to take profit, I'll give the profit back to the market makers. So 100%, this level is going to get hit at some point in time. Me personally, I think it's going to get hit next month. Now this leads me on to another thing. You have relatively equal lows here, but you also have quite a few areas of liquidity over here with a liquidity gap, which is called a fair value gap, over from around the $33K level to about the $30.5K level. So is that going to get hit? In my opinion, yes, it's going to get hit. Now, before I explain to you the reasoning for why I think this is going to get hit, it's important for you to understand the timeline. So I want you to understand something about Bitcoin, and this is a chart that I really like to refer to a lot. And I'm a big proponent of trading based on timing because the markets are not just about price. It's not just about candles or levels or support or resistance or whatever. The more you learn about the markets, the more realize that everything, literally everything in the markets is manipulated and they are calculated, including the timings of when price movements happen and how long they happen for. If you look at this chart just by itself, you can see that most macro movements, okay, on the daily chart from low to high takes about 3 and a half months. This takes almost 3 months. I could even technically move this a little bit before and you'll see that, you know, roughly 3 and a half months. Then you have 6 months from bottom to top, 3 months from top to bottom, about 4 months from bottom to top. Essentially, all the major market movements take about 3 to 6 months and somewhere in between. And you can see this very, very clearly, which also means that because I'm expecting a retracement for Bitcoin over this next period, I'm expecting this retracement period to take about 3 months to complete. And this just happens to line up with the halving Because for those of you who don't know, the Bitcoin halving is going to happen sometime during mid to late April. So let's just mark that out. So I'm expecting from this period to this period for Bitcoin to retrace. Now the question is, how low will it go? So this level at $35K is 100% going to get hit within like less than a month. So this leads us on to another question. Well, if this is going to get hit in February, we have the entire March to do something. And is it going to just stop here, or is it going to go lower to $25K? Well, I don't know the answer right now because we do need a little bit more time for Bitcoin to confirm whether or not it's going to go to $25K, or is it going to stay at around $30K. I can tell you what I think. So ideally, I really want to see Bitcoin hold the market structure at the $30K level. The reason for that is because if I draw market structure on the weekly chart, just macro market structure, You can see that if we just came back to the $30K area and even the high $20K area, it wouldn't be bad in terms of market structure because your bullish market structure would still be intact and you would start the bull run again just like that. And usually this move tends to be much more aggressive. That would be the ideal scenario. Again, I don't know what's going to happen over the next 3 months, but if I could make a prediction, the fact that you have relatively equal lows also here at $25K leads me to believe that there is a possibility where you can come into this area. But does that mean that Bitcoin bullishness is going to get, well, just diminished if price comes to this area? Not technically, because there's also another way to think of it. If we see the market right now as a big range from— this is the range high, and let's say this is the range low where the equal lows are at. So something like that. It could technically mean that price is just coming to sweep the range lows, at which point we buy and we buy aggressively, and it'll go back to the range high. Now, this is not an ideal scenario. Because when you are in a trading range, whenever— this is a pro tip, by the way— whenever you are in a trading range, you always assume that every sweep of the range high and every sweep of the range low is just going to be range deviation, which means you will always stay in a range until it stops, at which point you go back into a trend. And the reason why this is not ideal is because if we do stay in it, I really do not want to spend another year just staying in a trading range. I know last year was pretty good for Bitcoin overall, where From bottom to top, you had pretty much a 3x. But Bitcoin is capable of far more amazing things, and staying in range is not one of them. And I wouldn't want that to happen either. Although for range traders, for especially for range swing traders, just taking range low, selling the range high on every 3-month increment, you would make quite a lot of money. But of course, this is not ideal for the bull market. And the reason why I think that this probably isn't going to happen lines up with the fact that we're going to get the halving. So a possibility is that we come down to $25K and then the halving begins, and then something like that, you head back to the range high, just a slight bit of a retracement, and then the market explodes sometime during summer this year. Now that is a possibility. I don't know if it will happen, but one thing's for certain, Bitcoin price is going to retrace and you guys are going to want to get ready for it. And how do you get ready for it? Like, how do you trade these current market conditions? It's pretty straightforward really. Depending on which timeframe that you are trading at, you just wanna focus on shorts over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Remember that the Trend is your friend. You're not trying to catch a bottom here. In fact, we are nowhere close to the bottom. But even if we are, you shouldn't go into the markets with the expectation of catching bottoms because like you don't, you simply do not need to do that in order to make money. There's a saying that top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers. It's the easiest way for you to lose money trying to catch falling knives and trying to catch something like trying to short the top. And so the game plan here is simply. I can sum it up in one sentence: the trend is your friend. Trade with the trend. Notice how during this entire downtrend— and this is going to be a little pro tip, and this should be a part of your trading no matter what situation you find yourself in— you always trade with the trend. How do you do that? Now notice how during this entire down move, all the dumps are like insane, right? And they take much less time. All right, let's say here, 1 day, 9 hours to drop 15%, and then it takes like 1 day and 22 hours to just gain 4%. even if we just do this recovery, like the V-shaped recovery, it's still just 4% in about 19 hours. Technically, you were basically in a range for like, you know, 6 days where from range low to range high it was only a 5% gain. Whereas if you look at the down moves, again, 2 days, 21 hours, you can even start from here. You could also even start from here. Just notice how price action happens much more quicker. Price is a lot more volatile. It's a lot more certain. Price is going in one direction rather than staying in range. And all of this simply means one thing: you have much less headache as a trader. You're not going to be stuck holding trades that are doing absolutely nothing. You're going to have much higher win rate because you're trading with the trend, and you're going to have much more profit because, well, things are moving and they're moving quite a lot. So over the next 3 to 4 weeks, focus on shorts. Assume that any pump is either going to be a liquidity sweep in a trend or a retracement. What do I mean by that? Well, a retracement is pretty self-explanatory, where you come up, you retrace, you go down, you retrace, you come down, you retrace, right? So every pump is either retracement or a liquidity sweep in trend. What does that mean? Essentially, when you are bearish overall, you want to look for these swing highs to get swept before an aggressive move towards the downside. I want you to notice every buy side liquidity sweep tends to lead to pretty explosive movements towards the downside. Notice how here, buy side liquidity sweep, bam, that's when the move starts. Over here, you sweep the buy side and then bam, you go down. Over here, you sweep the buy side, boom. This is not as big of a movement, but the very next time that you do it, Over here, you sweep it. Boom! That's when the move begins. And then even when we zoom in further, you can see that on this candle here, you sweep the buy side, and then boom! Explosive movement. So it's either going to be a liquidity sweep in a trend or a retracement. So this is here a retracement before an explosive movement downwards. So same thing here, right? You sweep buy side. Boom! Sweep buy side, and eventually boom. Again, you have also retracements. For example, here's a retracement. Here's a retracement. Here's a retracement. Here's a retracement, and. Here's a retracement and boom. And then right now you are going to recover some of the liquidity up top, so potentially here or even here. So price is going to do a slow grind upwards before another move downwards. Now remember, every time you expand into a new range, so this becomes your range high and this becomes your range low. And what you want to do is identify the range and you identify where is the buy side liquidity, where are the market makers going to draw the price to. And if you can do that, it's as simple as once you go to range high, boom, You go back down to the range low and possibly even a range expansion. The way you do that, draw a fib, boom, 0.5 or a -1 extension, which just happens to lead up to $35K. So that's the game plan. You just want to look for buy-side liquidity sweeps, retracements, and liquidity sweeps in trend. The reason why this is the case, by the way, just to give you an explanation, is remember what I told you just now about how the market makers like to operate, and they really do not like it when people are in profit because They're just going to lose money. Like, imagine right now, you know, you take like $1,000 worth of profit on one of your positions. Guess where that money is coming from? Other people who are losing money. And guess who's losing money whenever you take profit? So they do need to recover some of that liquidity. For example, there are going to be people that have shorted at this point, are still in profit. They set their stop loss perhaps here, above here, or maybe above here, or any kind of swing high. Me personally, the fact that they're relatively equal highs here leads me to believe that there are going to be stop loss orders up here. And so what the market makers do is they just bring the price back up, sweep everyone, right? Make everybody believe that Bitcoin's going up, make everybody believe that they should be buying at this area for a breakout, whatever, and then boom, lead them to price. And this is how they create maximum pain every single time, like clockwork. So this was a pretty in-depth video, and if you appreciated a lot of the tips that I shared here, I actually share high-level trading tips in my newsletter that you can apply right away for absolutely free. And if you are serious about trading, it's not a newsletter that you want to miss. It's going to be very valuable for you. But otherwise, I'm going to see you again sometime soon. I'm going to be doing many different analyses on coins such as Solana, Dogecoin, as well as other coins on which price is best to buy them at and why. And if you're interested to have your coin analyzed in the next videos, just drop a comment down below on which coins you would like to see charted, and I'm going to break down a game plan for you in order to make the best of the next month. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next video. Trade safe, and may the gain be with you.