In this market‑update video, The Art of Crypto provides a detailed technical analysis of Solana (SOL) using weekly and daily charts. He explains that SOL is currently trading within a $120‑$130 range, with a high probability of staying inside the range until a weekly candle closes below $120, which would signal a bearish shift. The presenter discusses range‑touch heuristics (typically three touches before a breakout), bullish market structure on the weekly timeframe, and the significance of the $120 level as a historical support/resistance and a 0.5 Fibonacci confluence from a long liquidation wick. He introduces the concept of candle‑body liquidity, arguing that volume concentrates in the candle bodies where “smart money” operates, and contrasts this with retail focus on wicks. A trade idea is outlined: enter near the range low with a stop just below the wick low, offering a risk‑to‑reward of about 6.6:1 (potentially up to 10:1 if SOL reaches $300‑$320). The stop loss is wide (≈15%). He cautions that the current market structure is still bearish, making the trade a probabilistic play. The video also briefly mentions BNB as a future trade candidate pending CZ’s release, and references historical quarterly patterns where Q4 has historically been bullish for SOL. The presenter ends with a call to follow him on Twitter for faster updates.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another Solana market update. In this video, I'm going to give you the rundown on Solana. Are we going to go up? Are we going to go down? If so, where? For the record, I do think Solana is in a pretty good spot right now. Without any further ado, I'm going to give you the rundown right away. So taking a look at Solana on the weekly chart, we can see that price is currently still trading within this range here and this range low here. And until we get a weekly candle close below this area, then Everything is still trading as planned, as mentioned from the video from 2 weeks ago where I was expecting a retracement back into the $130 level. And of course, in the last video, I was expecting the retrace to happen from here straight down here before we take our entry. Now clearly that did not happen. It went from, as of the time that I made the video 2 weeks ago, at around $140 to $160 and now back to $130. And right now the plan remains. So given the fact that we are currently trading inside a range, one thing you have to understand is that when price is in a range, there is an 80% chance that it has the tendency to remain inside the range. So essentially all this means is that once you sweep the range lows, you tend to return to range highs, and once you sweep the range highs, you tend to return to range lows, just like you did right there. Now of course there comes a time when you break out of the range, but until it does, you assume that when price is in a range, it stays within the range. Now there are a couple guidelines here that could give you an indication to when— Before you're about to break the range and establish some kind of direction, and that's the number of touches at the range high, range low. Now usually that magic number tends to be 3, and so far technically we have one touch of the range low and one touch of the range high if we were to draw it from here. And using that, it wouldn't surprise me if right now what we're doing is just spending an extended consolidation period around the range lows before some kind of a sweep down below, and then off you go to the range high and potentially even higher. Now one thing that you have to note also on the weekly chart is that overall Solana is still putting in bullish market structure. If we just take a look at market structure, you can see, you know, maybe something like that, like that, and you have a higher low, that's your higher high, that's your higher low, that's your higher high. Until basically this low gets taken out, we're still going to be forming a higher low on the overall market structure. And given the fact that the liquidity point for Solana remains to be at the previous all-time high at around $250, and the fact that this very much just looks like a retracement/consolidation, we are overall, right, at least within the context of a bull market, We are still very well on track to Solana breaking its previous all-time high and beyond. Even though we have been retracing for pretty much the last 6 months, this is just how markets work. Macro movements usually play out in increments of 3 months. This is why you have financial quarters. You have Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4. And so far we have spent the last 2 quarters, which historically have been pretty terrible for crypto in the sense that, you know, you always get negative price action or some kind of consolidating or just very choppy price action. So everything that's been happening so far for the last 6 months is par for the course. Now it's time to zoom into the daily chart of Solana, just to zoom in and see where we currently stand. So again, this is your range low, that's your range high. One thing to note about the range low, which is very interesting, is that look at how many times this has acted as very key support and slash resistance for Solana, dating all the way back to the previous bull market, where again you found support there, resistance there. And this level here at $120 has just been historically a super significant level. So if price were to return back to the $120 level, here's another bit of confluence that adds up to Solana potentially finding a bottom around here. If we were to draw a Fibonacci level on just a wick alone on this daily chart during the liquidation event, we can see that the 0.5 of this very long wick pretty much adds up to around $120. Now this is a really good sign, and if you've been exposed to smart money concepts at any point in your life, you know that the 0.5 of the wick itself tends to be a pretty high probability level compared to the rest of the wick. And besides that, if you take a look at the daily chart, you can see that we are currently sweeping the candle body liquidity over here. Now, the reason why I say candle body is, is because I want you to picture for a moment that this is your daily chart candle. Now, within the daily chart candle, if we zoom onto a lower time frame, chances are it's probably going to play out something like this, where you have the majority of the volume being concentrated at the bodies and then some kind of manipulation where it forms the wick. And the key here is that we want to pay attention to where the majority of the volume is concentrated at, because this is where the smart money is doing all of their trading. Given the fact that we are not trying to trade alongside the retail and we're trying to, you know, figure out what the smart money is doing and trade alongside them, it's very important that you understand candle body liquidity is a thing. And in fact, this is where most of retail is going to be looking at, but these 2 levels are where, you know, the smart money is going to be potentially looking at. Again, the fact that we don't want to see a weekly candle close below $120 means that right now within this zone of $130 to $120, We're going to be expecting some kind of quick bounce out of this area. Could happen at 130, it could happen at 120, but either way, if it doesn't bounce from here, then we know for sure that Solana is going to be entering into a bearish state for the near future. And when I say near future, what I really mean is over the next 2 to 3 months, which obviously wouldn't be what most of crypto people would want, including myself. So all in all, right now this entry here could potentially be a generational entry for Solana, and the invalidation point for this case is really simple. You just want to set your stop below this wick low because we know that that is the invalidation point, right? Again, if you get a weekly candle close below this level, chances are you're going to flip this, you know, historical support into resistance and you're going to head lower. And in which case, you're probably going to head back to double-digit Solana, which is going to be pretty bad, and we will very much be inside a bear market. But on the flip side, the reason why I'm so excited about this trade is because of the potential prospect of return. We take a look at the potential risk to reward that we have. This is around 6.6, right? Means for every $1,000 that we're risking here, we stand a chance of making more than $6,000 back. And very likely, as Solana continues to go into an all-time high, so $300, potentially even $320, you're looking at a 10:1 return. And also, right now, one thing you have to understand is that our stop loss is really, really wide at 15%. If you just go onto a lower time frame chart waiting for some kind of confirmed market structure to form before entering, this stop loss could look very much like this, basically half or even lower. And of course, you have the potential to, you know, just get into Solana as a momentum trade as it's going up to essentially buy high and sell higher. As for right now, essentially it's probably going to be one of the best entries that you're going to get on Solana if you haven't already been allocated yet, which I don't know what you're doing. Solana is very likely going to outperform Ethereum by a whole lot. In fact, Solana is arguably, at least in my opinion, it's the strongest large-cap coin that you could be holding throughout this whole bull run, and the performance shows it. Now, the second of which is going to be BNB. I will make a video about this later on. But with CZ very likely getting released later this month, BNB could be a very strong candidate for a trade during this month. Also, BNB, fun fact, is the closest coin, at least amongst the large caps outside of Bitcoin, that is the closest to its previous all-time high. Right now you can see that we're only about 30% away from the previous all-time high, and if CZ gets released, then this is looking like a very promising trade. But just going back to Solana, One word of caution that I must tell you about is the fact that at the moment nothing is confirmed. Because if we take a look on the daily chart, you can see that you have, you know, a high, that's a lower low for sure, but right now you are forming a lower high. So based on the probabilities, right, if we disregard the range itself, we have zero confirmation that Solana is going to be bullish heading into September or October. Now we do have historical records that tell us that, that Q4 tends to be a very bullish month. In fact, If we look back to when the Solana pump started, it pretty much started at the end of September in early October. That pump basically lasted from October all the way till we peaked at around March. So essentially Q4, Q1. And given the fact that we are only 1 month away from the start of Q4, a lot can still happen. Essentially, you could still retrace below the $120 level. You could break below the range low. This is enough time, by the way, to break below the range low, flip it as resistance, come all the way here before some kind of a V recovery. This could very well so happen. Although, given the fact that we have been retracing for pretty much the past six months, is that likely? I don't know. But I do know that this trade right here is one very worth taking because the risk to reward is very much lined up in your favor. But just a word of caution again: we are currently still in bearish market structure, and so this is very much a bet that we are going to take out the range low. Basically, everyone will have been stopped out at this point. There is no longer any reason to go you know further below. And we're playing the ranges, essentially. We're playing the probabilities here. There is a slightly higher probability that, you know, price is going to go up from here. But if there's one thing certain about trading is that nothing is uncertain. And so you always still have a chance where it breaks below, in which case our downside is protected. We have a very clear invalidation. And if you can think like that when it comes to trading, you are going to be very successful, my friend. But otherwise, if you want to get the most timely market updates from me, highly recommend that you follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. A lot of these videos take a lot of time to record and to edit and to publish. So most of the time you will find that whatever thoughts I have on the market, I will share on Twitter. But anyways, if you enjoyed this video, drop a like on it. Truly makes my day. And I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
