In this YouTube video, Xuan of The Art of Crypto breaks down his current Bitcoin trade outlook. He starts by stating a bearish daily bias confirmed by a bearish CIST, which casts doubt on bullish swing trades. He then outlines a weekly swing‑trade opportunity based on an order block, highlighting exceptionally high risk‑to‑reward ratios (up to 8.5:1 for Bitcoin and 30:1 for altcoins like Solana). He advises risk‑averse traders to protect downside with stop‑loss adjustments. Shifting to intraday, Xuan explains that a short‑trade is appropriate given the bearish daily bias, but only if the 1‑hour candle stays below $82,000; a close above this level would create a bullish CSD and invalidate the setup. He emphasizes timeframe alignment—daily, middle, and lower timeframes must all point down—and describes order‑flow concepts (CSD, CIST) that support his short bias. The concrete trade plan includes a confirmed 1‑hour bearish CSD around $81,560, target support levels at $80,600 and $79,700, and a trading window during the New York session (7:00‑10:00 AM). Throughout, Xuan promotes his trading program, citing a ~75% personal win rate and a high funding success rate for students, and encourages viewers to watch an upcoming detailed system video. He ends with gratitude to commenters and a hopeful sign‑off.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm going to be breaking down the exact trade that I'm looking at for Bitcoin today, and let me tell you, the market today is a little bit interesting. And also, this sign that I'm seeing on Bitcoin does leave me a little bit concerned for anyone that is in some sort of a swing trade right now towards the upside. But yeah, I'm going to break this all down in this video. Also, really hope you watched the video from yesterday and ended up taking the idea that I called, because like, damn, that is absolutely spot on. But outside of that, before I get into it, uh, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all these trade calls right here for the the last couple of years, and I have overall around a 75% win rate. That just means that I'm right a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. And if that gives you a good reason to listen to me, then yeah, let's, um, let's get right into it. Now we're going to kick things off on the daily chart, and we're gonna go right off the get-go by saying that this is in fact a bearish daily bias. Plus the fact that you have now gotten a bearish CIST over here means that this is not looking good for anyone, you know, kind of in the swing trade towards the bullish direction. Just to explain what I mean when I say swing trade, in terms of the weekly chart, this order block right here was the order block that I mentioned. Like, okay, basically ever since price broke above this level, I've been waiting for a retrace back into this order block because in my system that is overall pretty consistent, taking trades or continuation trades when you get new bullish order blocks, and especially considering the fact that this is happening on the weekly chart, there's a pretty good swing trade idea. And for example, if you were to go back to the previous all-time high, you are standing to gain about an 8.5 risk-to-reward ratio where for every dollar that you risk, you stand to make 8.5 back, which is, you know, By all accounts, an amazing risk-reward trade. So the risk is like the risk-reward is very much in your favor here. And even if you don't go for the previous all-time high, assuming that the bullish trend continues, which based on price action at the moment seems like it is likely to continue, even if you just take profit at a recent high, that's still going to be like a 3 to 1 risk-reward ratio. So again, like a very good swing trade. And if you apply this to altcoins, you are going to get, you know, you're going to stand to gain way more because, you know, even if I were to just, you know, pop open Solana, for example, Same exact setup, but if you go back to the previous all-time high, you're looking at a 30 to 1 risk to reward ratio, which is absolutely insane. So yeah, over here, just because there is a chance to be wrong, which is the case for every single trade that you take, the risk to reward here is just absolutely fantastic, which is why I recommended the swing trade. Now, the problem right now that I see is that assuming that when we get into the swing trade, right, it basically— we're jumping into the markets with the assumption that it's going to go bullish. When you jump into the market with that assumption, you ideally also want to see the market giving you some proof, or at the very least, seeing some evidence that, hey, the market actually agrees with your idea. And so far, because of this bearish CSD, it may mean that we're in for a bit more of a retracement before price actually, you know, goes higher. And note what I am saying there, because the overall swing trade is based from the weekly timeframe. Just because we get a, you know, deeper retracement on the daily chart doesn't mean that, you know, this trade is over and that you have to stop it out. Because, you know, if you're going to micromanage your trades this aggressively, then you may as well be doing intraday trading, right? Why do swing trading? But still, if you are more of a risk-averse person, I would not hesitate to move my stop loss underneath this low right here just to protect your downside. Because at this point right now, you're basically like, yeah, you're basically moving your stop to break even at this point, which again is not a terrible idea. Even if you get stopped out break even, eventually if price runs, it's never too late to just kind of get back in. That's always been my philosophy. So yeah, swing trade aside, let's finally get into the intraday side of things. And so far, because we're looking at an overall bearish daily bias, it means that we should be looking for shorts today. And in terms shorts today, like, there's some very clear conditions to making today work, basically. And the first thing that I will mention is that this entire idea here gets invalidated the moment you get an hourly candle close above $82,000. Why? Because this would signify a bullish CSD on the 1-hourly chart. Now, again, the reason why this matters is because of timeframe alignment. Basically, the way that I like to, you know, kind of teach this is that ideally the majority of your trades should have what is known as timeframe alignment, where If you are looking at a long, you ideally want your daily timeframe, your middle timeframe, and your higher and your lower timeframe to all be pointing in the same direction. As long as one of these are pointing in an opposite direction, this is when you get timeframe misalignment. So for example, right now the daily chart is pointing towards the downside. Okay, when we come into the middle timeframe, we're looking for evidence that suggests that the market is also pointing towards the downside in the middle timeframe. Now, the reason why this matters again is because we never want to be jumping into trades just because of an idea that we have. Ideally, we want the market to give us some sort of evidence that our idea about what the market should be doing Is you know the market actually agrees with it. So in this case right here, we would need to see some sort of bearish order flow on the middle time frame in order to continue to validate this idea that we have that we are supposed to be looking for shorts. So I know that was a huge mouthful, but basically yes, if you get a candle body close on the one hourly chart above $82,000, this is a bullish CSD and this puts the middle time frame into a bullish state of mind, which again causes time frame misalignment. So you don't want to be looking for trades, or at the very least, even if you do jump into trades, it's going to be a lot more high risk. Now. When this happens, it's not to say like that we absolutely do not want to be trading because it's impossible that our trades will play out. It's more so that if we do decide to go long into a situation like this, well, we're basically going long into a market that is very much clearly in a downtrend at the moment. And yes, sometimes you may get lucky and, you know, you get the— you manage to catch the bottom and price reverses, but that's not what you want your trading, your kind of strategy to kind of rely on— luck. You ideally want to use an entry model that is largely consistent, and trying to catch bottoms and trying to catch tops, I can tell you straight up, it's not a particularly consistent strategy. But then what about the opposite side of the equation? What if you try to go short after, you know, getting a bullish CIST above this level? Well, guess what? Because you have gotten a bullish CIST over here, it means the overall order flow is bullish. Now, when order flow goes bullish, that means that bullish order blocks tend to be respected, which means that this is going to become a new bullish order block, which means that as price dumps, right, let's say you go short here and price dumps into this order block right here, it's actually going to be more likely that price finds support at this order block and continues going higher rather than it breaking through this order block again because price is already in bullish order flow. So this is why order flow is so important to understand. And I'm actually going to be releasing a video soon, this Sunday, that's going to break down my entire system with much more depth. Um, highly recommend you subscribe and turn on the notification bell because that video is going to be an absolute banger. I think I spent a solid 10 hours just writing that script and just finding like specific examples on like a single video. And I know that doesn't sound like much, but for me, I've never quite spent a lot of time on these YouTube videos. Like even these You know, even these YouTube videos, I just kind of open the screen and just start talking because the system's already pretty dialed in. But I realized in order to explain this system to an absolute beginner and have them understand it in a sequential manner, that takes work. And so yeah, look forward to the video on Sunday. And yeah, like just to get back into, you know, what I was talking about before, as long as you don't get that candle close above, then it's still like this trade is very much still intact, right? Because not only is this blue box a bearish order block that price has currently retraced into, but secondly, Just going to remove this blue box for a moment so that things can become a lot more clear. We've just gotten a confirmed CSD on the 1-hourly chart beneath this level at $81,600, or like $81,560. And that basically means that technically speaking, this is already the new bearish order block that we can kind of utilize, which means like, yeah, the setup for today is going to be relatively straightforward as you get into the New York session, which is 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM. Again, we don't really have news today, so just use that kind of timing window. You're looking for a breakdown followed by a retrace into the order block and then continuation towards the downside. And the way this would potentially look like on the lower timeframes is basically, yeah, just as long as you have bearish order flow, you can just keep trading the markets towards the downside. And it goes without saying because we have these couple of lows that were formed all the way back here. The first one is going to be at $80,600. And the second one is the candle that actually tapped into the bullish order block on the weekly chart, which is at $79,700. It's just as long as order flow remains bearish, you're just going to be getting into trades all the way down here and all the way down here. So that's the trade for today. And obviously this gets invalidated if you get the, you know, the candle close above this level. And by the way, this is a good moment to just mention that if you've ever thought about working with us or joining our program, but you've, you know, you don't really have a clear idea as to what the program actually does, I recently just uploaded a different video, right? If you click the first link in the description, you're going to see a kind of different video. Feel free to have a watch at that. That will fully explain what our program does and the success rate that we've managed to achieve for our students, which is more than half the people who end up working with us get funded. Now I'm also going to do something pretty controversial here and just, you know, if you look at the screen right now, this is the page that you'll see after booking the call where, you know, it's going to answer majority, the majority of the questions that you may have like, hey, what do we actually do? How does this program work? Can I do this with a full-time job? What if I don't trade crypto? If I'm profitable, why sell a course, right? And like, you know, various other things to show you how, you know, we're absolutely not a scam and to show you how, you know, we We've managed to get a majority of the students who work with us to a point where they can get funded for $100,000 or more and just basically sustain a full-time income from trading. So yeah, just like when you book a call, it's not the end of the world. You can always just book a call, come in here, check out the videos, and hey, if you're not interested, cancel the call, whatever. Like at least I'm being transparent as to, you know, what this entire process looks like. But otherwise, to everyone that took time to leave comments down below, like I had a read at them yesterday and Like, thank you for taking the time to leave it. When I'm feeling down or when I'm feeling stressed about kind of making videos and I open up the YouTube comments to just see those, like, it really does help me keep going. And it really does mean a lot that you guys do find a lot of value in these daily videos that I do. And in not only, you know, sharing the wins, but also in sharing the losses and just talking through the losses. Just understand that I try my best to read every single comment. So thank you from the bottom of my heart for taking the time to leave those. But for now, I think it's been a pretty good week and like, yeah, hope We end this week on a positive note, but otherwise I'll see you guys next week. Ciao, ciao.
