The Daily Alpha #1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDCAD & AUDUSD

What's up guys, welcome to the first episode of AOC's Alpha Report. Now just a quick little backstory of why I decided to stick— try this new format. The majority of the time when I make videos, it's either on Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana, because let's be real, those are the ones that are the biggest and those are the ones most likely to get views. But I do a lot of analyses on other coins as well as other assets Such as TradFi, right? You look at forex, commodities, and even indices. Now, I don't really get a chance to make those videos because I am primarily a crypto channel. And like, I'm gonna be honest here with how terrible the crypto markets have been performing over the last few weeks. I have made my bread and butter and my money from trading traditional assets. And I think this format will give me an opportunity to talk about, you know, stuff other than, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum. And more importantly, I do a lot of analyses on, you know, various coins as well as, well, just various assets every day. And this just gives me an opportunity to talk through all of them, give you guys the best ideas, uh, which ones are not that worth looking at, but primarily the ones that are worth looking at. And yeah, otherwise, like, I am doing this work anyways. I am doing these analyses anyways for my own trading, and You know what better way to share it with you guys than to just compile everything into a little alpha report? So without any further ado, let's dive right into it. So since we are still you know primarily crypto, let's talk about crypto for a quick moment. We take a look at the weekly chart on Bitcoin. There's honestly not too much going on. Last week we had an inside bar, which is when you do not tap either the previous weekly high or the previous weekly low. So Last week was a really boring week for crypto, and until either one of the last week's candle gets you know taken, I don't really see an opportunity. Now overall, we're still in an uptrend. Yes, like if you just take a look at the weekly chart, heck, even take a look at the daily chart, we are very much still in an uptrend. But the problem is, like in this consolidatory period, like Bitcoin is very much not the problem. It's the altcoins. Altcoins are bleeding out like crazy. So. What do we expect from Bitcoin this week? Honestly, nothing too much. Again, the signal is going to be when either one of these levels gets hit. You might perhaps have an opportunity to do a range deviation trade, but more likely than not, I think you have better opportunities this week on other than Bitcoin. Now, what's interesting to note is that you have a couple of draws on liquidity on the daily chart that you can see. In fact, if you use the previous weekly low, that is two. Draws some liquidity towards the sell side, and on the buy side you have that one right there. And the next one on the weekly time frame is going to be at the previous all-time high. So I think it's going to be a little bit of time until we hit that. At the moment, I think the only real thing to talk about in terms of Bitcoin is just, you know, if one of these levels get hit, you have an opportunity to trade it to the other side. Overall, you're still in an uptrend. We do. We just don't know when this consolidation period will end. I definitely do not think that we're in a bear market whatsoever. Now, there is a possibility that you do sweep the lows before you continue the uptrend though, because right now, if you can take a look on the weekly chart, you have a fair value gap over here that price filled. Yes, price filled the fair value gap, but it failed to make a new high. Now technically, you can say like, hey, do you know this is a higher high? But the fact that you do not have a candle body closure. Above this previous high is really bad because it shows that there is a lack of strength pushing above the previous all-time high, and that's why you're currently retracing. Now, you might be interested to know that the second fill of the fair value gap oftentimes provides a really unique opportunity because when you fill the fair value gap for the second time, guess what you're doing? You're sweeping the previous low. And assuming that the trend is still overall towards the upside, which it is, Then a sell-side liquidity sweep can lead to a really explosive move towards the upside. So if I had to place my bets, I would say Bitcoin, the best opportunity, the A+ opportunity, is going to come after you sweep the lows here at $88,800. Now, before that happens, we can possibly take a few scalps here and there, but Bitcoin is not the A+ opportunity, at least not when I share some of the other assets with you. So currently really boring, zero trades taken until, you know, either one of these levels gets taken. If you break the previous weekly high, perhaps that gives you an opportunity. I'm more willing to bet my money that if you break the previous weekly high, it will give you an opportunity to trade lower heading into next week. Otherwise, looking at the daily chart, like there is just nothing much of interest currently on the daily chart. It's interesting to note is that order flow is bearish, meaning like Overall, you have bearish order blocks being respected, and you have bullish PD arrays getting disrespected. So it's very unlikely that you know these blocks get you know just traded through. If it does, great. Crypto is going to be back. But otherwise, expected more to just retrace and continue respecting these bearish PD arrays until the higher time frame objective is hit. Now we could also have a potential market maker buy model here with. The first leg of the consolidation, perhaps the second leg of the consolidation, with the third leg of the consolidation heading into a higher timeframe area of interest before the market continues moving. So that's going to be the analysis on Bitcoin. Currently still sells, direction is leaning down at the moment. Now overall trend is up, so you just understand that just in the short term it's probably going to be down, and this would be, you know, Just a retracement period. It's all it is. Despite how altcoin, despite how the altcoins are looking, it's very much just a retracement period, which is normal in every bull market. Granted, these altcoin reactions and these altcoin movements have been not satisfactory whatsoever. But hey, it is what it is. We don't get to control what the market does. We can only take what the market gives us. So now let's move on to Ethereum. Now Ethereum is also kind of a similar story, a little bit better than Bitcoin because you have swept the lows. At the moment, purely based on the weekly perspective, the only area worth noting is that you have a bearish fair value gap over there. So in the event that you retrace into that bearish fair value gap, that's going to be an opportunity to trade lower. Yes, that's right, lower, because currently you have relatively equal highs there. You have swept the range lows, but there is still no indication that, you know, Ethereum is going to start moving higher, especially when we do not have any changes in order flow. If we go on to the daily chart, you pretty much see the simi— you pretty much see the same picture. Like, that's a fair value gap over there, and you have essentially a bearish block over here. So until this level gets broken through, or at least once you start trading above this block and you start holding above it and you start making a new high, There is no confirmation in the change in order flow. Yes, I know the higher time frame targets have all been taken out, but until you get that, you know, just confirmed change in order flow, I don't think there is a bullish opportunity on Ethereum. In fact, I would even say you don't really have much of an opportunity on Ethereum even compared to Bitcoin. So I would stay away from Ethereum and I would very much focus my attention on USD/CAD. So what's interesting to note is that— let me start off on the weekly chart. You have 2 very bearish candle closures. Now, last week's candle closure was very much, you know, bearish. You're breaking down. And so when you get a bearish closure, you can reasonably expect the next week to also continue, right? Continuation of the bearish move. Now, what's interesting to note is that USD/CAD is overall in an uptrend. But right now, I think you have an opportunity to just retrace. Now, this one's much higher probability than Bitcoin, though. Because when we go down to the daily chart, you can see is that, well, first of all, weekly bias for this week towards the downside. We've already established that. Now let's hop onto the daily chart. Daily chart, you have a bearish fair value gap over here, which price has traded into just a few hours ago. Now, when price traded into that level, you broke above the previous daily high. This is Monday's high. So you have swept Monday's high into the fair value gap. And so this, and plus you have news later. Right, as of the time that I'm filming this, we have CPI in about three hours, and then another one tomorrow. Like this is just a week that's filled with news, and so we can expect volatility in the markets. So now the only thing that could throw a wrench in this plan is if CPI comes out really positive in favor of the Canadian dollar. Then yeah, you know, perhaps this might change, and you might continue retracing into the February gap deeper before next week. When we get the move, at least on the lower timeframe, at least on the weekly chart, the most recent move, the bias is very much towards the downside. And if we take a look at the 1-hourly chart, just to see how all 3 timeframes are aligned. Now, you have swept above Monday's high. So now this becomes a strong high. Now, not only that, but you have traded below this series of up-close candles, which makes this a bearish order block. Why is this a bearish order block? Because you've reached into a higher timeframe area of interest and you show a really strong reaction. So this becomes your bearish order block now. So not only that, but we have a potential market maker sell model here. Yeah, this is something that I've already shared on Discord, but this is how the market maker sell model looks like. You have an original consolidation, one leg up into a higher timeframe point of interest before smart money reversal, and you can see that this is your low-risk sell. And right now, this is your original consolidation. You have one leg up. Currently, you have another leg up into a higher timeframe point of interest. And currently, it's playing out exactly as, you know, the market maker sell model and everything. All 3 timeframes are aligned. And the target for this trade is either going to be going from this high to this low and just going one measured move, which is pretty much at the weekly, you know, Bullish order block already, so this would be a trade for either today or tomorrow. And you can see this is a 10.6R trade. Also, probabilities are really high. You don't get this type of A+ opportunity every day. And yeah, this would like if I had one. If I only took one setup this week, I think it would probably be the USD Canadian. So hopefully that makes sense. Now let's talk about Australian dollar for like real quick. Because Australian dollar is also very interesting. Now, on the weekly chart, you have a swing failure pattern. Basically, you swept out the previous day— rather, a low from— that's a month ago. And after you sweep that low, you fail to close below it, just like Bitcoin, right? You sweep the high, but then you fail to close above it, so that leads to downside. Similarly here, when you sweep a low and you fail to close below it, that signals strength, right? The bulls are still in control, and And so the bias is towards the upside. Now, not only that, but you traded directly through this down-close candle, which makes this now a bullish order block from the weekly perspective. So, and this is also a really aggressive move. And also, you broke above a previous swing high. So a liquidity sweep followed by a break of a previous swing high, this is known as a broken base or a change of character or a market structure shift. Like, there are many names to this. But the key here is that not only, um, plus the fact that last week's candle closed bullish means that the bias for this week, we can reasonably anticipate continuation towards the upside. And so just hopping down to the daily chart to see if this also confirms it, we have swept Monday's low. As you can see there, that is Monday, right? That was yesterday. I'm filming this on Tuesday. We swept Monday's low heading into a bullish fair value gap. So let me just change this To further gap, so we swept that into bullish further gap, respected the mean threshold of the further gap, and currently we are trading above. Right? So hopping onto the lower time frame, one hourly chart, you have swept this, so this becomes a strong low. Strong lows are lows that form after you suit liquidity, right? This is a previous level liquidity. You suit this one. Currently you are showing a relatively strong move by closing above. These up-close candles right here, which is a really good sign for bullishness. And so right now you can reasonably anticipate this block here to hold. So the trade idea— this is also— this is not an A+ opportunity, but it's pretty high up there. Stop loss underneath the wick. You can either go for a 2R, or in this case we go into the daily chart— oh sorry, the weekly chart— and look for draws on liquidity. And we can see right there, that's a bearish order block right there. Now, I do not expect this level to get hit today. That's going to be a 1.7% move, like 1.7% move. But possibly this week, we will definitely see some kind of expansion towards the upside. I don't think we're going to go like all the way there because that is quite literally about 100 pips. But we can reasonably expect some kind of weekly expansion profile going for one measure move. So that'll be the target right there for a 2.85. Now, of course, you can refine this using the lower timeframe, especially if you pair this together with news. And news is actually coming for Australian dollar tomorrow, actually mainly tomorrow. So I think the real opportunity is going to be tomorrow. So I wouldn't even take the trade today. But overall, on the weekly profile, we could potentially see one more leg down before reversal on Wednesday following the news. Anything's possible at the moment, but I'll definitely make an update to this tomorrow. Now, one thing you might notice that I'm not really talking too much about the EUR/USD as as well as GU. There's honestly just not too much to talk about here. EU and the DXY is very much in opposite patterns at the moment. If you take a look at the monthly chart though, the DXY seems to be retracing into some kind of monthly. internal range liquidity before continuing the trend. Like right now, you've just broken below a previous swing high, and this is a higher high. So right now you're coming down here to form a higher low before continuation towards the upside, targeting external range liquidity right there. So you're— that's your internal range liquidity, right? So retracement into here towards there, that could be a reasonable bias to have, at least from the monthly time frame. Which means that more likely than not, perhaps this bullish order block can get broken through, especially because last week's candle closed bearish as well. So we can reasonably anticipate continuation this week heading towards the downside, which is going to be bullish for the EUR/USD. Now, last week's candle is bullish, but I don't think we have a reasonable setup at the moment. Even if we go onto the daily chart, you can see that we are very much still range-bound. So until either one of these levels gets, you know, taken out, I think there are just better opportunities worth putting your money into. So guys, uh, this is the Alpha Report. Let me know what you think about this new format. I would really be curious to hear your thoughts. Just like a daily breakdown of like— because I— because one of the things you need to know is that for every like potential trade idea I have, I look through at least 5 to 10 charts. And that's your job as a trader, to filter out the highest quality opportunities on a day-by-day basis and not just take every one You know blindly, and this involves you know looking through a mixture of tradfi of crypto and even you know yeah tradfi and crypto because as long as there's a chart, whatever concepts that I'm trading can be applicable. We trade based on price action. As long as there's a candlestick chart, our concepts are going to be applied to these charts and just looking at more assets, especially not especially outside of crypto because let's face it like if Bitcoin goes down like everything in crypto goes down which is. You're pretty much just trading the same thing, and you're pretty much looking at the same thing. They all just have like different packagings and different names, but essentially they're the same thing. When you look at TradFi, you really diversify your portfolio and you open up so many more opportunities. And so for those of you who are, you know, trading the TradFi markets or more like pure traders rather than just crypto investors, or even if you're just in crypto and you would just like to diversify, especially having access to TradFi when there crypto markets are horrendous at the moment. Gives you a really unique opportunity to make money while everyone else is stuck, you know, holding bags. But anyways, let me know what you think about this new format. I'm super curious to hear your thoughts and if you appreciate this format. But otherwise, uh, in about 10 days, I'm about to host another free masterclass. For those of you who joined any of the past masterclasses, you know this is exceptionally packed with value. This is not one of those free webinars where I'm gonna be spending half the time selling you something. If you are interested in this masterclass, I think it will be very applicable to you. Feel free to click the link in the description box below. You will get a link to sign up there. But otherwise, guys, hope you enjoyed this off-record, and I will see you guys in the next one, probably tomorrow. Cheers.