In this video, The Art of Crypto provides a technical market analysis of Bitcoin, focusing on recent changes in 4‑hour and daily chart structures. He explains that the 4‑hour chart is forming lower highs and lower lows, with key support at $21,400 and a critical danger zone at $19,000. On the daily chart, despite a recent retracement, the overall trend remains bullish, and a higher‑low confirmation is needed to validate an upside move. He highlights a large volume‑profile imbalance (VPVR) that leaves little resistance above the current price, suggesting upside potential toward the CME futures gap between $27.4k and $28.8k, making $27‑28k a realistic target. Trading guidance includes shorting on the 4‑hour until higher highs/lows appear, using stop‑losses above prior highs, and considering DCA for risk‑averse investors. He also promotes his newsletter, Twitter, and a private Discord for detailed trade calls. The overall stance is cautiously optimistic: bullish unless the $19k level is broken, at which point a drop to $16k could occur.
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What's up everybody? In this video, we're going to talk about this change in market structure for Bitcoin on the 4-hourly chart and how we are putting in lower highs and lower lows at the moment. Is there reason for us to panic, or is there still a chance that we are going to hit $25,000 or even $28,000, which is my target that I've been talking about over the last month? Now, truth be told, this video was a little bit late. Last week I already posted about this in the Art of Crypto newsletter. So if you want to stay up to date every single week where I tell you exactly what's going to happen in the market and what levels you should pay attention to, consider joining the free newsletter at theartofcrypto.substack.com. The link will be in the description box below. But anyways, back in that newsletter as well as on Twitter, I mentioned that the level that you wanted to watch was $21,400. And I mentioned that if that level gets taken out, then you have to start, you know, being a little bit concerned that price is going to continue lower. And the reason for that is because $21,400 is sort of the first 4-hourly swing low That is below like 0.5 fib within this range. Now if I go on to the daily chart, this range I'm talking about is from this swing low right here to this swing high, which is the recent impulse, the expansion from 18k, 19k to 24,000. Now by all accounts, I mentioned that we were bullish here, and at this point, do I still think that we are bullish? Well, I think that we are simply going through a retrace at the moment because the markets do not simply move up or down like indefinitely, and There needs to be retracements. For example, after this up move, you had a down move, even though you have formed a higher high and a higher low over here, which means that market structure was bullish already. And yet you still went through like a 14, 15, 16% dump before you finally proceeded to do another 20, 30% pump. So retracements in markets are perfectly normal, just like how it doesn't tend to go straight down, it doesn't go straight up either. But I do believe that the trend at the moment is still overall bullish, and the reason for that is because current Currently, if I bring up the VPVR, you can see that on the right side of the chart how little volume there is within this zone right here. Now, prior to price action getting here, this zone was actually completely empty as well. And the reason why I bring this up is because there is a huge, huge imbalance that goes— that stretches on from this point to that point right there, this green box. And the moment you do another up move Well, towards the upside, and you break this previous high here, there is nothing holding Bitcoin back from hitting $28,000 or even $27,000. So do I think we're still bullish? Absolutely. And at what point will I stop, you know, will I cease to be bullish? And honestly, that is going to come when $19,000 is taken out. Like for example, if we do a retrace all the way back to here. In fact, if I go back to a previous example, which was during this move here, I was telling everyone, hey, you don't need to panic because at the moment, The daily chart is still like in bullish market structure, or at least it's shifting to bullish market structure. And I mentioned to everyone, for those of you who are watching my videos, that not to expect Bitcoin to bounce at the 0.705, which was over here. Clearly, we went way lower than that, right? And we even fell below the 0.786. But ultimately, we did not break the swing lows over here, which I mentioned was key. If these swing lows were taken out, then well, you're screwed. Bitcoin's going to go back to like 16K or something. And the same thing goes for Bitcoin at the moment. It's the same structure, like within this range. Like sure, I can tell you that 21,400 is going to be support. I could also tell you that the 0.618 is going to be support. I could also tell you that the 0.705, whatever, you get the point. But you never truly know until you get like just another confirmed swing low and hopefully a higher low on the daily chart. And the moment you get that is when like Imagine these are candles. The low of this candle just needs to be lower than the 2 candles right next to it. The moment you confirm that, then you're going to make the next push up to $27K. But if you do not get that, right, if you do not get a higher low, for example like this, if you do not get it before you break $19,000, then you're screwed. You're going back to $16,000. And honestly, there is no way to tell until it confirms it. So honestly, just read and react. Do not be too hasty. Like, do not feel the need to jump into the market. Like, do not feel the need to FOMO and get into the markets before quote unquote like the market's going to take off without you or something. But truth be told, it's just not going to happen. For example, after you confirm that swing low over there, you would have still had a lot of chances to catch like a 20% move. Sure, it wouldn't have been the bottom, but for example, if you went in just somewhere about there, maybe somewhere about there, you would have still gotten 15-20% with much higher confirmation instead of trying to predict like, hey, This is going to be the bottom. This is going to be the bottom. This is going to be the bottom. And then at the end of the day, you just end up with a position that is somewhere here while the price goes all the way to here before bouncing. So if you are all right with staying in the red and seeing like a lot of red numbers on your screen, then absolutely do that, right? This is DCA. That's honestly the safest way to go. But for the majority of you, you watch my channel because you're traders. And as traders, we want to get an optimal entry. We don't really just want to DCA and call it a day. So if you want to do that, I highly suggest you wait for a confirmation of a daily swing low formation. And if I'm betting my own money, which I am because I'm taking trades, then I'm going to bet that it's going to form a higher low somewhere between four of these levels. I don't think it's going to go below nineteen k simply because market structure is shifting, and I really do not see a reason why it's going to go there at the like as of right now. Of course, if there are any developments in the markets and I see something different, I'm going to post another video on it. So make sure you subscribe. To this channel and turn on the bell notification to be notified on that as soon as possible. And of course, if you want the latest just market updates, I've recently came back to Twitter and I have been very active on Twitter. So definitely follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. I promise it will be worth your time. But otherwise, let's also discuss like why I am thinking that Bitcoin is going to go to at least $27K or $27.5K. And my target actually comes from bringing up the CME futures gap. You can see that we have already filled in this CME futures gap right here, which was how I Predicted that Bitcoin would have a higher chance of forming a high low on the daily chart and going up instead of going down because simply put, this was the path of least resistance. And like I want you to visualize this: the reason why I am so like I have such conviction that Bitcoin is going to go up instead of down is because if you go back into the past, you don't really have any gaps that you need to fill in, at least not on the daily chart. There is simply nothing here that you need to fill in, and prices always attracted to gaps because. Well, the market makers need to rebalance the markets and fill in imbalances. And because of that, if you take a look at the CME futures gap here, which exists at $27.4K and $28.8K, it would be logical to think that this would be the path of least resistance for price to move in. And so because of that, I believe that the ultimate target of Bitcoin in this up move is going to be at $27K to $28K. And once price gets to that point, I'm really going to highly consider And I would highly recommend you guys deleverage from like longs and start scaling into shorts. Now, whether this is going to be the place to, you know, get into shorts is yet to be seen because, well, price action can do some pretty irrational things, especially in this kind of a global economic, you know, situation. So make sure you follow this channel so that you know exactly what my thoughts are when market structure gets to this point, and I will be there first thing to let you guys know what is the best course of action. So long story short, is this going to be a point of concern? Honestly, it's a little bit too early to tell. Of course, you will have to continue shorting this on the 4-hourly until otherwise proven. Like, for example, if Bitcoin now retraces up back into this bearish order block, which is right about there, then that's going to be short zone, right? You're going to short this with a stop loss above the previous high, and you're going to target the next low, which is— the trade would look something like that. So until otherwise proven, when market structure starts making higher highs and higher lows, you continue looking for shorts. And if you want to follow along with all the trades from me and my team, you want to consider joining the private Discord group at theartofcrypto.co. The link will be in the description box below. But with that said, I hope this video has been helpful. I'll catch you in the next one.
