In this solo market‑outlook video, the host from The Art of Crypto reviews the recent Federal Reserve rate cut—the first in four years—and explains why the 50‑basis‑point reduction to a 5% funds rate is a catalyst for risk‑on assets. He highlights the historical inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, showing how past DXY drops have preceded crypto bull markets. Using the current DXY chart, he identifies a fair‑value gap, bearish daily structure, and a weekly target around 99.6 points, projecting a 1.5% move that could trigger a 20‑30% rally across major cryptos. The analysis then shifts to Bitcoin, where weekly, monthly, and daily charts are examined. He outlines a bullish bias, key support zones (around $6,500 on the daily retracement and the 50% Fibonacci level), and price targets of $65k‑$70k, anticipating a new all‑time high next month. Practical trading guidance is provided: enter long positions near the 50% retracement of the weekly candle, watch for bullish closes, and use the DXY’s projected moves as a macro signal. The video concludes with a teaser for an upcoming alt‑coin outlook, emphasizing that the macro and technical signals together suggest a forthcoming crypto bull market.
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What's up guys, welcome back to a weekly outlook. Now last week we got one of the most monumental events that we've been waiting for throughout the year, which was the federal funds rate. For the first time in basically the last 4 years, Federal Reserve has finally started to cut rates. 25 basis points was supposed to be the forecast, but it ended up being extremely bullish for risk-on assets because the actual result of the federal funds rate was 5%. So that's a drop in 50 basis points. Now this is huge because this is going to set the tone for The upcoming, you know, six, twelve, and even potentially the next few years, especially if this trend continues. This is a really good sign for what we're trying to achieve from crypto. Just to touch on the USD because this is going to affect crypto. For those of you who don't know, the US dollar index, or rather the DXY, is inversely correlated to Bitcoin, at least historically speaking, as well as other risk-on assets such as the stock market. And what that means is basically, as the DXY is going down, Bitcoin. Tends to go up. And if we just plot out historical periods where DXY was going down and compare it to Bitcoin, you can see exactly when crypto bull markets start and end. And it's again highly correlated. The period where Bitcoin started pumping here, you can see the DXY started dropping by about 6 to 7 points. At this point here is when you really got a huge, huge bull market, or pretty much marking the bottom of the bear market, you can see that is where it's correlated. Once more, let's go back to the start of the crypto bull market, which is at March 2020. You see the DXY going from 102 points down to 90 points. Now this was a huge significant drop. Now currently where DXY is standing right now, there is still, as you can see, a lot more room for the DXY to drop. And even if the DXY were to drop from here just a cool, like even 5 points down to, you know, 98 at current price, this is actually 101. So even just a 3 to 4 point drop is going to pump the crypto markets, or at least Bitcoin by, you know, 2x basically. And if Bitcoin goes 2x, you can imagine just what's going to happen to the rest of crypto. Let's take a look at Dixie just to give you guys a quick analysis. Now previously in the Discord, for those of you guys who saw the message, we marked out this fair value gap and we said that as we marked it out here, so the next week traded into the fair value gap and then it broke down. Now this trend is unlikely to change in the near future because of the fact that this fair value gap was respected. Plus the fact that you are currently still forming, you know, just bearish market structure on the lower time frames such as the daily chart where it's lower highs and lower lows. And on the weekly chart, you have a really clear target at 99.6 points. This could be the target that we reach for, you know, this week. That's about 1.5%. This is huge for crypto. As you guys can already tell, the last week we went from 101 points down to 100 points, basically 1 point difference. And basically we had, you know, Popcat pumping like 50%, we had Solana pumping 20%, basically most of the large caps pumping 20%, including Bitcoin. So assuming that this week is going to be, you know, the same, it's very likely that we see another 20 to 30% pump of crypto across the board. And to further back up the news, or like to further back up the claim, let's take a look at the major news that's coming on for this week. And as you can see, we don't really have too much. There's no CPI, there's no non-farm payroll. Let's just say that this week is probably going to be a pretty smooth, easygoing, just end of the month push. And speaking about end of the month, it's also good to take a look at the monthly. And monthly, you know, nothing's looking too crazy at the moment. So this has been a relatively unvolatile month. But just on the note of the Dixie, like, we're good. And areas that you want to start looking to position yourself into, you know, crypto shorts— sorry, crypto longs, if you haven't already done so, even though I've been spamming you guys to do it for the last like 2-3 months— to look for a 50% retracement on the weekly candle. So just drawing a fib here, this is how, you know, candles tend to work. If you are bearish for the next week, you want to buy— sorry, you want to sell above the open. So this is currently where the market closed, and so any area above the close, which is going to be next week's open, is going to be a good area for you guys to start positioning yourselves in. And so essentially, I think basically 101 or 108 is going to be the key resistance levels for DXY to essentially Trade up, and then you know trade down basically. You know open high low, and probably something like this as the next weekly candle. So this is going to be the area to look for. Now applying this to Bitcoin, it's also pretty straightforward. Taking a look at the monthly chart, currently you are still not yet bullish, although you do have a confirmed swing low here. So as long as we close above. This level basically, which is looking very likely. Bitcoin's not going to drop to $50K within the next week. This is going to be a higher low essentially. And so the bias for the month heading into next month, even though it's a bit early to talk about next month for now, you know, assuming that this is where it closes, anywhere below this would be good to buy. Monthly candle expands, and that's probably how the monthly candle is going to be looking like. We're overall bullish heading into next month. And let's take a look at the week. On the week, this is also a really good sign because currently, unless you close below this level here, you're pretty much going to close this week bullish. And that's really good for us for one reason. When you get a bullish candle close, you want to look for— again, same thing— draw a fib from the previous candle low to high, look for the 50% retracement. As you can see here, once this candle closed bullish, the next candle, right, on the weekly chart came back down to the 50%, found support, and then expanded higher. So essentially, again, the market open, low, high, and probably close. This is probably how it's going to look like considering today's Sunday and we're not really expecting too much price action. And so the next week is going to be very similar. Wherever the weekly candle closes, draw fib, look for a 50% retracement. Market's probably going to open up here, come into the low, expand, find support here, and then probably close, you know, somewhere there, right? That's going to be how the weekly profile is going to play out on Bitcoin. Very similar to what we just marked out on the Dixie, basically. And just one thing to note, like even though the weekly is, even though the monthly is starting to look bullish, on the daily chart we are also starting to look bullish, although not in the macro term yet. So if you look at the macro term, you have basically this high and low. That's a low high, and that's higher low. But at the moment, right as of current moment, right here, right now, you are still within technically a lower high, although Recent price action, this is definitely looking very bullish, and I do think there's only a matter of time until these levels get taken, as discussed on the DXY, as discussed on the federal funds rate, as discussed on the monthly and weekly profile. So when you do retrace back into this previous zone, I think if you retrace back into $6,500, going to be a really great zone to buy into Bitcoin, and it also happens to line up with the 50% line of, you know, this weekly candle. So retracement into here Pump gonna be easy trade up to 65K. I don't know if we'll hit 70K by the end of this month, but I do think it will get hit next month. Basically, I'm expecting a new all-time high to form on Bitcoin next month. That is the analysis on Bitcoin. Like, things are looking good. You just went through a 30-40% retracement. As Bitcoin goes up from here, a lot of people that come in later on down the line— I'm talking like 3 to 6 months later— are going to be like, yo, you know, this is just like a 30% retracement. Why were you guys, you know, going through so much pain? Those of us who have been through this period, you know exactly how this felt. And so, you know, there's been a lot of pain in the markets over the last 6 months, and right now there are a lot of people in a lot of disbelief, actually, believe it or not. And I think this is going to, you know, set the tone for, you know, a Bitcoin bull market or a crypto bull market heading down the line. Now, this was a weekly outlook for Bitcoin, just to give you guys a bigger picture overview of what's going on in the markets. In the next video, I'm going to talk about the altcoins, especially the altcoins that I focus on heading into the week. Just a hint, it's not going to be wildly different from the altcoins that I talked about a couple weeks ago, but still, I'm just going to give you guys an update so that you guys will be well prepared to take advantage of the upcoming pumps. Otherwise, hope you find this video helpful. Cheers!
