The Weekly Bitcoin Report What You Need To Know As A Trader

What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art Of Crypto. In this video, we are going to talk about what to expect on Monday during the market open. Are we already bullish on the higher timeframe or are we still bearish and we should expect lower prices? So there will be a higher timeframe analysis. And if we are indeed bullish, in the event of a pullback, where would be the best price to enter into Bitcoin as well as other altcoins? And lastly, we're just gonna cover a couple of pieces of news that may or may not be important. If you wanna find out more about all of these, make sure you stick around to the end of this video. But starting off with the Friday range. Now, the reason why I bring up the Friday range is because it is absolutely key in order for us to understand what is going to happen during the Monday weekly open. So if we just take a look here, you can see that the Friday range is from 22,130 to about 21,200. And currently you can see that today is Sunday as of the time I'm recording this. We have taken out Friday's low. So usually when this happens, you expect the price to You know, this is the fake move basically. Like this down move here is the fake move, and you tend to expect price to, you know, go towards the upside heading into the Monday open. In this case, then we have to figure out where could be a target that Bitcoin targets. Now then, the second question is, if the price is indeed going to go upwards, which is my belief by the way, then we have to figure out where is the first target for this up move. And if I just draw a fib from Friday's high to Friday's low, you can see like the first swing high after the 0.5 Fib is right here at about 21,700. Now if I go on to the 1-hourly chart, you can see that this is the first swing high on the 1-hourly chart. So the target for an up move heading into the Monday open is definitely taking a long at around these levels because you've already taken out the Friday's low, which usually means liquidity is taken out and price is going to reverse. And the reason they do this is because weekend price movement is not really interesting at all. And it tends to stay within the Friday range until one of these levels, one of the Friday range levels, high or low, gets taken out. That is usually the fake move. It happens on the weekend and then it reverses. So based on that theory, then this is something that can happen. So taking a long somewhere around here with a profit target of about 21,700 is, you know, a trade that you could take. So that is what to expect on the Monday open. And recently I made a newsletter where I give out like one or two, you know, articles a week talking about some major macroeconomic developments as well as like very high-level information that you need to know, as well as any trades. So it's absolutely free and there's going to be a lot of value. So I want you to go over to theartofcrypto.substack.com and subscribe to this if you're interested at all. Again, absolutely free, and I just try to provide as much value as possible. So that is what to expect on the Monday weekly open. The second question that I talked about is whether or not we are already bullish on a higher time frame, and to do that we're going to have to go on to the daily chart. Now I want you to take a look at the daily chart here because Oh, this is the high time frame. And over here you can see that we have our first, you know, swing high right here, and then our swing low is over there. So the reason I bring these 2 up is because it's very important to understand market structure from these 2 levels. Currently, that was the previous low, right? And then you have a high. So the first sign of bullishness on a high time frame is always that you have a, like, a higher low formation on the high time frame. And you can see exactly that that's what happened, right? We got a higher low. But until you get a higher high on the daily chart, it's really hard to tell if you are indeed bullish or not. And currently you can see that we have indeed gotten that high high over there. You broke market structure here, so this is the high high. Now our point of interest becomes the range between this high high here to the range like this higher low here. Now essentially what this all means is simply that market structure has already shifted bullish, right? By all accounts, based on textbook answers, market structure or the higher timeframe order flow is already bullish. So in this case, we are going to start looking for longs instead of shorts. Now this does not mean that shorts are absolutely a terrible idea. It simply means that longs most likely, just like how during this entire period of bearish order flow, you can see that the short movements, right, the movements towards the downside is a lot stronger than the moves towards the upside. In fact, the upside ones are just little ticks, right? If order flow has indeed switched into bullish mode, then this is what you're going to be getting, right? The up moves are going to be way stronger than the down moves. Now, to back up this theory, right, I'm just going to bring up another chart. But before we get into that, there is also a possibility that the price could, just like how It happened back in May of 2022. Notice how price actually broke structure over here, and I was actually one of the people saying, hey, you know, bullish market structure seems to have shifted bullish, and expect price to go fill in a BTC/CME futures gap at about $35K. Clearly that did not happen, and so we have to consider the possibility, is this going to happen again? And to do that, we're going to need to zoom out even more back onto the weekly chart to see if there are you know, any other levels that price hasn't taken out yet. And immediately my eyes move to this level right here between like at about $17,600 because there are relatively equal lows here. I mentioned this in last week's video, but if you just take a look at the low of this candle, which is right above there, it is at $17,622. And over here, the low of this candle is $17,572, which means that price hasn't actually taken out the liquidity at this level yet. Which means that relatively equal lows, usually to retail traders, to the majority of retail traders, they're going to look at that level and they're going to be like, wow, that is, you know, strong support. And so they're going to likely place their stop loss below that level or simply try to take along here at this level and expect the price to hold. And then price doesn't and everyone gets liquidated. Either way, you have to understand that there is a lot of liquidity hiding, you know, right underneath this level, and the market makers know this. So In the event that this case right here is similar to the one back in May, then expect price to go back to $17,600. And in my opinion, the lowest for that move is going to be at $16,200. So expect the bottom to come at $17,600 and $16,200 if, if, okay, if and only if price breaks $18,600, okay? Because $18,600 at the moment is the key swing low on the daily chart. Until this level gets broken, right, high timeframe, we are still bullish, right? We are already bullish. Until this— if this level gets broken, then these 2 levels are the ones to watch out for. In fact, if this one gets broken, right, it is almost a certainty that $17,600 is going to get tapped again and as low as $16,200. But like, I just want to iterate, I'm sharing this because we want to consider both sides of the equation, given that, you know, we're smart traders and we're like strategists, you know. We don't, we don't just go with a bias and run with it, you know. We take a look at the other side of the equation as well. So given that we are bullish, then let's take a look at what a possible target could be. And to do that, I'm going to head over to the Bitcoin CME futures chart, because over here— I talked about this a lot, by the way, in past videos— but there is a BTC CME futures gap at $27,300 and $28,700, right? Which means that this is a level that price is going to target in order to fill in the imbalance. Which means that on the daily chart, if you were taking a swing long at any point between $20K and about 17.6K, then your first target on a daily chart, right, on a swing trade standpoint, which is about 2 to 3 months, I would assume that this target gets hit in 2 to 3 months, is going to be at about 27,300 and 28,700. And the reason for this is because imbalances, right? These gaps are essentially imbalances. You can see imbalances every single day across every single timeframe. And if you wanna learn more about that, I have actually made a video that I'm gonna link on the top right-hand corner. So check out that video after this video if you wanna learn how to utilize these imbalances to make money literally every single day. But otherwise, imbalances tend to get filled because, well, markets need to be rebalanced. That is the job of the market makers, essentially. So I'm going to give you a level right now. If price breaks $23,000— if price breaks $23,000, then expect the target of this move, this up move, to be at least $27,000 to $28,000. And for the majority of people who bought the dip at these levels, let's say just $20K, right? For the people who bought the dip at $20K, there'll be about a 40 to 45% gain on, you know, the trade if price were to hit these targets. And is it likely to hit these targets? I think yes. And again, I'm not saying that, you know, this was the bear market bottom. All I'm simply saying is that in the— in a swing trade, like in a midterm timeframe, that this is going to be a very realistic level for price to hit before it continues back to the downside. Or maybe it takes— it fills in the other gap here at $35,000 before it goes down. Because if you take a look at the weekly chart, right? Even if it were to come to 35,000, in the grand scheme of things, it's nothing, right? It comes back to here. So what? You're still like within this range. Let's just draw a fib from there to there. Within this range, even if you were to go back to 35,000, it is not even at the 0.5. So it's not even at the mid-range of this range. So it's a relatively small move when you take a look at it from a very high time frame perspective. But again, don't let this discourage you and think that, oh, you can't make any money at all. In fact, you can because Remember, if you bought somewhere at 20,000 or like 18,000 or whatever, this would've been a 40 to 65% trade for you. And if it goes all the way to 35,000, well, add another 50% to that. So you can make really, really good money, right? But those are the levels that you wanna watch for. Now, in the event of a pullback, where do we enter? Now, that is the question that a lot of you might wonder what is the answer to. Now, in order to do that, I'm going to hop back onto the daily chart because I wanna draw a fib from that swing low right there to that swing high over there. Now, the reason I do this is because we need to understand where are the retracement levels that we would be interested to buy at. And in this case, it is going to be at this 0.705. So 0.705 is what you call sort of the golden pocket. It is usually, most of the time, a very key level. Like most of the times, you'll find that pullbacks tend to end at the 0.705 to 0.618. Now, so this is going to be the zone that we're going to be looking at, but in particular, I'm going to be looking at $19,800 at this level right here, not only because it is a 0.705 retracement level, which is very, very strong usually on most retracements. But there is also a swing low over here, indicates that there is liquidity there, which means price, once taking out the liquidity, would serve as a very strong level for price to continue onwards, right? Again, this is on the 4-hour chart. Once price takes out that level at 0.705, plus filling in the golden pocket in the retracement, then it can start extending back to 24.4 or 24.9, which is right at about our target, or even 26. Now, just to give you a little sneak peek into what you will get in the newsletter, this is something that is covered every week. I'll just give you an update on what are the most important news that is happening so that you can be ready for whatever happens. It's essentially like read it for 5 minutes and be prepared for whatever that's going to be happening for the week. So some news to pay attention to. Taking a look at the Federal Reserve's calendar, there isn't really much going on this week. So last week we had the FOMC meeting, which is why you had a choppy period of price action over here where basically nothing was happening. So given that there is nothing happening, this week in terms of the Federal Reserve, then I expect this week to be a lot more cleaner and not so choppy. And currently they are the most important, you know, variable in the markets. And again, I have written a post over why. I highly recommend you check it out. And other than that, you know, very unremarkable news really. There's just going to be an Ethereum conference going on next week, which is not going to affect price action very much at all, just like how NFT NYC, which is a huge NFT event did not really affect the price of NFTs. Similarly, Ethereum has a much bigger market cap and a lot more liquidity. It's not going to affect it, simply put. And OGN is going to be doing an airdrop this week. So check this out. Again, link to this post is at theartofcrypto.substack.com. And if you haven't already, make sure you join the private Discord group. This is where me and my moderators are, you know, helping you guys make a lot of money. This is where you're going to be able to level up your trading game as well. And if you haven't already, make sure you check out the private Discord group at theartofcrypto.co. This is where me and my moderators are giving you guys trades, making you guys some money. And most importantly, most importantly, this is where you're going to be able to level up your trading game because there is so much education in here that, you know, the knowledge that you gain here is probably going to stay with you for a lifetime. Now, if that sounds worth it to you, check it out at theartofcrypto.co. Bye-bye.