In this video, The Art of Crypto presents a detailed technical analysis of Polygon (MATIC) and outlines two high‑probability trade ideas—a short and a long—that he claims can generate millionaire‑level returns. He begins by emphasizing the importance of starting analysis on a higher‑timeframe (daily) to gauge the macro environment, introducing the concept of a 0.5 mid‑range equilibrium where algorithmic trading keeps the market balanced between premium and discount zones. He explains that price spending too much time above 0.5 creates a premium (selling pressure) and below creates a discount (buying pressure). Using Fibonacci retracements, he identifies key premium zones (0.618, 0.705) as optimal short‑entry areas and discount zones for potential longs. He introduces fair value gaps (price voids) as imbalance zones that algorithms aim to fill, and describes liquidity theory, where market moves are driven by the removal of sell‑side or buy‑side liquidity, with order blocks marking the last candle before a strong move and representing smart‑money accumulation points. He identifies an inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern as a distribution signal, suggesting an imminent pullback. The short trade is proposed at ~0.92 with a stop at 0.93 and a target of 0.83, yielding an 8.6:1 risk‑reward ratio. The long trade follows the short, entering near an order block with a stop below, targeting 1.05 (TP1) and 1.18‑1.22 (TP2), offering roughly a 30:1 risk‑reward. He ties these setups to a broader Q4 bullish outlook for risk‑on assets, referencing Bitcoin and DXY dynamics. Finally, he promotes a private Discord where he shares live trade alerts and deeper analysis.
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Right, coming at you with this MATIC video because I believe there is a huge opportunity that you can take advantage of to make yourself some money. If you want to figure out exactly what I'm talking about and understand the full analysis behind why I think MATIC is good, stick around till the end of this video. Right now we're just going to dive right into it. Right, so to start off, we're going to begin on the higher time frame. Uh, the reason I start on a higher time frame is because you want to understand your environment first before you dive into the details and try to understand which entry to take. Because for example, if your higher timeframe is trying to go higher and you think the lower timeframe is trying to go lower, then you're just gonna aggressively short, which you will be wrong. You will be royally wrong and you're just gonna get screwed. So pro tip for all of you guys, whenever you start an analysis, always start from the higher timeframe before going to a lower timeframe. So in this case, I'm taking a look on the daily chart and what do I see? But now I see that we have once tapped into the 0.5 of this macro range. And the reason why this matters is because I want you to understand that 80% of daily trading volume is being done by algorithms. And the algorithms that move these markets are programmed in a way where they look to keep the markets in a state of balance as much as possible, which means that within any given range, if you spend too much time beneath the 0.5, this is known as a discount. And if you spend too much time above the 0.5, that is known as a premium. So you can imagine if you spend too much time at either one of these levels, you'd be like, hey, that's an imbalanced market. Whereas 0.5, which is the mid-range, would be the perfect point of equilibrium for the markets. So as much as possible, these algorithms from time to time, they always like to just bring the market from a discount into a premium. And this is also going to be a huge tip for all of you guys. Whenever you guys are deciding, hey, where do I start shorting this? For example, if I'm looking purely on the daily chart, I would not short this— like, I would not short MATIC from the daily chart until it hits either 0.618 or the 0.705 of this macro range. Why is that? Well, because this, for one, is a premium zone where you look to sell, right? This is where the market makers are going to be selling. Number 2, this is the golden pocket of the Fibonacci retracement. So this is where the money zone is. And if you want to take a short entry, you always want to look to take it from here. If you're going long, you simply reverse the Fib and draw from low to high. And you can see that another golden pocket appears. So in this situation, we are still within the discount zone, and I believe that we will in the short term get a little bit of a retracement before going up to target the 0.618. That basically is going to sum up this video, but now I'm going to get into the details because that's the thing that's going to make you the money, basically. So let's just mark out this high right here, which is very important. We're going to mark out this level as well. So those two blue lines represent a fair value gap because I want you to take a look at this chart over here. And if you just observe, there is zero price action from this, like within this gap basically, right? There is price action behind here, there's price action after here, but within this gap itself there is no price action. Now why does this matter? Well, this is known as a fair value gap, and the reason why this matters is because again it goes back to the algorithms that want to keep the markets in a state of balance A gap represents an imbalance, and that's why you hear a lot of people talk about, oh, the CME futures gap has to get like filled, or imbalances have to be rebalanced, you know, stuff like that. This is the reason why. I've just given you the theory as to why. So this is going to be the area of value that we're going to look to take profit on our longs if we do get into a long. And I believe that these 2 levels are going to be the ultimate target for MATIC over November, basically. I think we will get there in November. Now let's actually get into the juicy part. Now that we understand our higher timeframe bias and understand the higher timeframe sort of environment, let's take a look at— let's try to zoom in and figure out if there is an entry for us to take, right? What is the short-term bias and which entry do we go? So in this case, to the longtime people of this channel, you know I do not like to use trendlines in the traditional method. This is just to visualize things for you. So the price, right, I'm not going to say breakout here, but rather I want to say that the higher time frame bias is towards the upside. Why is that? Let's dive deeper. So I want you to take a look at this level right here. This is known as a level of liquidity, right? This swing low has been taken out during this move, and you can see that this uptrend basically started after the liquidity has been taken out. Why is that? Well, liquidity is what moves the market. If you think of the market as a Ferrari, liquidity is is the fuel that allows this Ferrari to go up or down. So in order to go up, you need to take the liquidity, or rather sell-side liquidity, before you can go upwards. Similarly, if you wanna go down, you have to take out the buy-side liquidity before you can go down. That's why support resistance theory doesn't really work, because if you're just going long at support, assuming that you don't set a stop loss, then you're gonna be absolutely fine. But if you do set a stop loss, let's say you go long at quote unquote support and you place a stop loss right beneath it, you're going to get wrecked, right? You're going to get stopped out and then price is going to reverse because this is just liquidity theory. So same thing here. I think that it's going to continue this uptrend because there is no reason for the market makers to come down all the way to basically a 30% drop to take out the liquidity that is below here right now. I believe the opportunity lies elsewhere, which is over here, and as well as this, you know, uh, fair value gap that it has not yet rebalanced. Now this is going to tie in with my Bitcoin theory as well as the macroeconomic theory that Q4 is going to be a relatively bullish quarter for risk-on assets such as stocks as well as crypto. Now, if you want to figure out exactly what that means, I do a really deep dive into the DXY and Bitcoin and how that's going to affect crypto basically, uh, in yesterday's video. So check yesterday's video out if you haven't. But now going back to this theory, I believe that in the short term we're going to get a pullback. Now, where is that? Well, let's say that this move here began from this low to this high. But right now what I'm going to do is I'm going to draw a fib from that low over there over to that high. And you can see that this block at the 705 and the 618, if you remember what I said earlier, lies somewhere within this block over here. So that block is going to be our area of interest for a long. Basically, I'm looking for a retrace and then pump. Now this is further being backed up by the theory that like this retrace is very likely going to happen because of the fact that you have a head and shoulders pattern right here. You take a look here, that's the shoulder, head, shoulder. Now, I don't really use patterns often, but the heads and shoulders pattern is one of my favorite patterns because this has nothing to do with retail trading. This is a distribution pattern. Now, I want you to understand that the market makers, as much as they try to hide their movements, they cannot hide distribution and accumulation patterns. For example, over here you get an inverse heads and shoulders, and these patterns work wonderfully well. Now the heads and shoulders is just one of the like distribution patterns. There is also the 3 drives pattern where you get something like this, right? 1, 2, 3, 3 drives, and then you break structure over here, you retrace back into a fair value gap usually, and then you dump. That is known as the 3 drives pattern. In this case, this is going to be a heads and shoulders pattern, and very likely this is a very good opportunity for you to get into a short all the way back down to $0.84 before ultimately finding your way upwards again. So in this case, I'm going to narrow down my entry because now that we draw a Fib again, you can see that the 0.705 ends up exactly at this block right here. So I'm going to narrow down the block, the order block, to this. So an order block basically just means the last down candle before like a really aggressive move upwards. And this is usually where the smart money is accumulating the positions. So when price returns back to this area, this is where the smart money is looking at to get into their positions. So we're going to trade alongside the smart money because we understand that retail trading, while it may work for some people, smart money is just way more effective. And ultimately, they are the ones who are moving the market, so we want to trade alongside them and not against them, right? Because that'd just be a stupid thing to do. Now, as for the actual entry of the short, we're going to have to zoom in even more to the 1-hourly chart so that we can get a good entry. And in the 1-hourly chart, You can see that there is a fair value gap over here, which I think there is a chance that we might just go fill it today and then continue downwards. Now, is there another entry up top that I can see? Well, not at the moment. Now, if I draw a fib, right, going back to the previous theory about fibs and stuff, you can see that the true ideal, like the true ideal entry would be somewhere here, right? That block sits in the premium zone within this range here, right? Right from this movement to this movement. This is the premium area, and this is an order block which breaks market structure. That is a just— well, that's just the cleanest setup. However, I don't really think we will go all the way back there. So what I would suggest to do, since we have already broken— we have already started to play out with this heads and shoulders pattern, I believe the true area that you should be looking at is right at this fair value gap here. And I'm not just going to talk about like just the fair value gap. I think the correct entry would be somewhere at about 0.92 with a stop loss at 0.93. And then the target of this trade is going to be, as mentioned before, right here at 0.83. So this will give you an 8.6 to 1 risk to reward ratio, which basically just means if you're risking $100, you're gonna make $800, $860 back on this trade, which is a really, really good risk to reward ratio. And then after that, you're going to go for a long at this order block with a stop loss beneath the order block. And what you're going to target is— well, let's give, let's give multiple TPs because I don't actually think it's just going to get all the way here in one fell swoop. I do want to secure my profits somewhere along the way, and I think this is going to be a really good level at 1.05 because that is a previous level of liquidity. And you remember what happens when liquidity gets taken is market reverses, right? Once buy side liquidity gets taken out, this gives enough fuel for the market makers to bring the market downwards. Okay, so I'm going to do a TP1 over here. So this is going to be TP1, that's going to be TP2. Ideally this one would be TP2 at $1.22, but you can also close it out at about $1.18 or $1.19 as well. So this trade ultimately is going to look like this. The short trade is going to give you a risk-to-reward ratio of 8.6 to 1, while the long trade is going to give you a return of about— let's take a look here— about 30 risk-to-reward ratio. So if you just take 2 of these trades and they play out perfectly, if you're risking just 1% of your account, your account would be pretty much up by 40% by the end of this trade. And anybody that can make 40% in like 1 or 2 months is doing really, really well. A lot of the times we crypto people get really inundated with the fact that, oh, you know, Dogecoin can go 2x in, in a day, so what the hell is 40% in 2 months? That's horrible. But in reality, if you look at the stock market, they get 10% a year and we're doing 20 to 40% a month. That's really freaking amazing. So if you're able to do just 10% a month, dude, you're a good trader. And if you're doing 10% a month with solid risk management, keep at what you're doing. Because your life, like, you're building such a good habit and your life is just gonna change basically. Now, if you wanna get access to all of my trades that I'm calling as well as all the coins that I'm looking at with exact entries, you're gonna wanna consider joining the private Discord group where I'm going to be active most of the time. The link will be in the description box below. For now, take care. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
