This Indicator Has Never Failed To Predict #Bitcoin Bottoms, No Cap Here’s What You Need To Know!

What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. In this video, we are going to talk about Bitcoin and what's going to be happening next, as well as a very key indicator that will give you a lot of insight as to where we are in the current market cycle. So first, I'm going to talk about a lower time frame sort of analysis so that the ones who are more you know, shorter-term traders, they're going to have an idea about what's going on. And later on, I'm going to do more of a higher time frame analysis so that the investors as well as the swing traders will know what's up and where exactly we are in the market cycle. So first things first, back in the last video, I mentioned to be careful of the moon phase, right? When the moon phase happens, historically speaking, 90% to 95% of the time Throughout time, you have had some kind of a reaction. And when it comes to the new moon, you tend to dump. And I mentioned this on my Twitter as well, right? Just so you know, I'm not playing you, right? This is just, you know, a very short segment in history. Every time we've had the new moon, we've went down, right? And in case you haven't followed me on Twitter already, this is where I share like the latest market updates as well as any, you know, information that I feel like you guys need to know, right? Millionaires don't use astrology. billionaires do, just stuff like that. So if you haven't already followed me on Twitter, make sure you do so. So new moon happened, and, you know, we went down exactly as expected. And there were still people who were, you know, very doubtful of this moon thing. And I know how you feel, right? This stuff is— frankly, it sounds ridiculous. But, you know, it's just how the way the markets work, right? You go back in time, right? Every single time we've had the blue moon— sorry, the new moon, Right? Bam, right? You got a new moon. Bam. Although, you know, it might not be the start of a downtrend, right? It depends where you are in the market cycle. In this case, you were in the markup phase, right? And that's why the new moon only produced a small effect. But nonetheless, it still produced some kind of effect, right? Right after you get the new moon, you tend to dump, right? 90 to 95% of the time. This is the one time where it didn't happen. But even then, right, if you look closely, If you look closely, you did like dump just a little bit, right? Just a tiny bit, right? 3%, 5%, you get the idea, right? Bam! I can go on and on, but you know, this stuff works and you should definitely apply this to your trading, right? The specific indicator that I am using is called Moon Phases, right? It's just MP. So go find that, yeah, look for that, and you apply this to your trading, right? Every time you get a new moon, you tend to go up. I know this sounds really simplistic and this sounds just like woo-woo crap, but it works, right? Again, millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do. I'm not the one who said it, JP Morgan did, and he is arguably one of the most successful men on the planet. Well, used to be one of the most successful men on the planet. So, you know, utilize the moon phases. But, you know, this video is not about moon phases. This video is about a lower timeframe analysis, right? So, just to figure out exactly what's going on so that none of you are caught off guard by, you know, anything that might happen. So, for now, things are still going according to plan, right? Which is, back in the last video, I mentioned that you needed to take out Friday's low, right? So, this was Friday's low, which is exactly at this level, right? At this previous POC, a point of control, right? And Friday's high was $38,000. If I'm not mistaken, right? Just right there, right? That's the Friday high and that's the Friday low, right? So I'm just going to mark both of those up, right? I said that we were likely going to retrace, right? Because you took out Friday's high already, so you're going to retrace and take out Friday's low before an upward move, right? We didn't get that. We just took out the liquidity here and then we reverted, right? But right now we are coming back to take old liquidity because you have to understand the market runs on liquidity. Right? All these moves that you're seeing here, the fact that you know Bitcoin is just ranging, and just the fact that how you have a previous high over here, right? You wick just a tiny bit above it, and you reverse. Then you come really close to this high, right? And then you wick just a tiny bit above it, right? Let me just let me just mark this down. You wick just a tiny bit above it, and then you reverse. This is how the markets work. The markets are run by market makers, and every time you see some kind of a swing high, expect there to be liquidity up top above it. So this is what they do. They always push the price just a tiny bit above swing highs because retail traders are going to be looking at this level and they're going to be like, oh, this is, you know, strong resistance, and so I'm going to set my stop loss up here, right? Or think about whenever you take a trade, right? Where do you realistically set your stop loss? For example, if you were to take a trade here, for example, I bet you would set your stop loss right underneath here. And this is how everyone is taught, including myself. I still do this. But when you do this, you have to understand that you cannot keep your position open for too long, especially when it comes to short positions. The thing about market makers is that they are in the business of making money. They are not in the business of helping you make money. What does that mean? Basically, whenever you are, you know, for example, if you're taking a long position, right? The markets don't just move itself. It doesn't move itself, right? It needs some kind of liquidity provider to move it. That's the market makers. So whenever you win a trade, whenever you are in profit and you secure the profits, the market makers have to pay you out of their own pocket, which means they're losing money, you're gaining money. So do you see the conflict of interest here? They are not in the business of helping you win trades. They are in the business of making sure the most people lose money as possible. And that's why they do this, right? The sooner you understand, the sooner you see this, the better. So based on this concept right here, what's going to happen next? At the moment, as of the time that I'm filming this video, it is a Thursday. And on Thursdays, basically what you need to understand is that the high of the week tends to be formed before most Wednesdays, right? Most of the time it is formed before Wednesday or on Wednesday. Currently, we have already formed the high of the week. I do not expect us to go back up to $39K this week, right? It is just a fact of how the market makers like to do things. This is called a midweek reversal, right, where you go down and take out previous liquidity. Remember, anyone who went long at any of these points got a free ride up till, you know, up till about here. And currently, there is a lot of liquidity back down here, people who might set their stop loss right there. For example, you have a POC over here, You have a swing low over here. This is the one-hourly chart, so trust me when I say you are going to take out the liquidity here. And then once you take out the liquidity here, that's Friday's low taken out. So that will give me confirmation that things could be about to reverse. However, I want you to pay attention to this level right here at 35,500. You have 2 equal lows right here, and you have a poorly formed low. So expect price to come back to this level. To take out the liquidity. Again, whenever you get 2 points, like 2 very similar lows or 2 very similar highs such as this, always expect the market makers to move the price back up there because retail traders are going to be looking at this and they're going to be like, oh, this is strong resistance, so I should short here and I should place my stop loss right here. Easy money. That's not how it works. Trust me, if one person is thinking about this, there are 100,000 more people who are thinking the same thing. The market makers know this, right? They have access to liquidation data, so they're going to take it out, right? Expect price to revisit this poorly formed high over here. Just expect it. But before that happens, you have to take out the liquidity on the other side of the equation. Otherwise, the market maker is going to be losing money. And besides that, you have a point of imbalance over here, right? Notice how there is almost no price action within this level. And when you see this, Always assume that imbalances tend to be filled. If you take a look at the Bitcoin CME futures, always, you always realize that the gaps, right, the CME futures gaps tend to be filled one way or another. And same thing goes for just the regular old chart, right? In this case, this is Bybit perpetual contracts. Always expect imbalances to be filled. So could we revisit this level right here at $34K, which I have been talking about for quite a while? Yes, I do think that we can revisit 34K, and if you get there, right, this is going to be a very good place for you to place a long at. I'm going to expect really strong support from this level, not just because there is an order block over here. Let me just mark this down. This is what you call an order block, right? This is a bullish order block, and basically what it means is every time you see a down candle before a massive move upwards, it means that there are— there is an imbalance over here. Right? There is untapped liquidity that the market makers need to come back down, fill in the gap, go into the order block, right? Think of order blocks as their areas of value before they can move price the other way. So order blocks in this sense are really amazing for catching, like, just sniping things. I can give you an immediate example over here, right? This right here is an order block. You come back down into the order block, you reverse it, right? Although not by much, but imagine if you, you know, consistently repeat this over time, right? That's another order block. You go above it, you come back down and retest it, and then you reverse. For example, over here you have another one, although this is a very big one. You come back down, right? You move up above it, come back down, and then you reverse, right? It gives you very clear areas of value to take advantage of trades. In this case, this is going to be one of them. So if you do get back here, stop loss beneath the low, beneath the low, right? You can set a bit of leeway for yourself, but honestly, I'm going to just set it below the swing low Because order blocks give you, you know, if an order block doesn't hold, right, then you're going to have to expect lower prices. In this case, it's going to be going below, very likely below, probably to $32K, right? I'm going to discuss why I think that level is going to be key later. But I've been talking about $32K for a very long time now. We did come down back to $33K, but we haven't hit $32K, right? So do I still expect it to be hit? It depends on this order block. If it gets stopped out, then $32K. But you know, the moral of the story is that order blocks give you really good just areas of value for you to place trades at. So first, you know, just summarize everything that I've just said. Expect $31K to be taken out because there is liquidity here and there is a POC, right? What's likely going to happen is you're going to take it out and you're going to reverse, right? Just for a little bit. And then Very likely price is going to be attracted to 35,500. Not only is there equal lows here, which means there's going to be liquidity here, there's going to be stop losses, and there's going to be liquidation points. You take them out, you revert a bit. So the next move comes— do like the next move, right? The next question is, are we going to go back to 34K? That I cannot be certain. If you follow traditional just market maker, you know, methodologies, then yes, we will go back to 33— sorry, 34K. But, you know, it's going to be the weekend soon, and this is a lower time frame analysis for a reason. So I'm going to be making another video if we do, you know, go back during the weekends. Basically, if we still haven't hit $34K already, I'm definitely going to make another video to talk about this. So make sure you subscribe, like this video, and stay tuned so that you know what's going on. So that's going to be the lower time frame analysis, right? So now we move on to the higher time frame analysis. And for this purpose, for the purpose of this, you know, analysis, I'm going to bring this indicator up, right? This is something you call a mean reversion channel, and I know it looks really fancy, but it's basically just mean reversion. So it is a complicated subject. I mean, not really complicated, but mean reversion is not something that most people understand, and rightfully so. I don't think it is the most popular method out there, but it involves a lot of math and It tends to show you data, right? How far are you reverting away? Are you deviating away from the mean? So for instance, this yellow line right here, this is the mean. So the mean is basically— think of it as the fair value of the coin, right? Basically where the coin is supposed to be valued at as of this given moment. So the further you deviate from the mean, the more likely you are to revert back to the mean. Right, so right now we are below the mean. So chances are sometime soon we are going to revert back to the mean, which means are we going to go back to forty like high fifty like fifty k basically? Yes, definitely we will. So the reason why I bring up this indicator, it is like there's nothing fancy about this indicator by the way. This is just a way for you to visualize mean reversion because most people. For most people, you need to do some math in order to calculate mean reversion. But in this instance, this indicator makes it really easy to just, you know, see where you are. So this is not an indicator that I use a lot, and this is definitely not an indicator that I use to start off my market analysis. If anything, this is just an indicator that I utilize to give extra confirmation, especially to a higher time frame analysis. So that I understand where we stand in the big picture. So what I need you to understand is that— let me just go back to a Bitstamp chart because Bitstamp historically has been the longest, you know, the longest chart, right, the most with the most history. So what I need you to understand is every time we have hit this lower band, right, this lower channel right here of the mean reversion channel, we have not historically stayed very long inside it. In fact, we have never spent more than 45 days within this channel, which means when you hit this channel, this is what you call an accumulation zone. This is not a time when you should be panicking and thinking we are going to zero, because we do not— like, historically speaking, we do not spend much time in the bottom band, right? For example, over here you spend just a tiny bit of time and then you reverse. And again, I don't mean that once you hit this band You are going to just bounce. What I mean is that once you hit this band, you are very likely going to reverse back to the other band. This is called mean reversion. You know, this is the reversion part of the mean reversion. So this other time when you touch this channel, bam, right? Instant reversion. The other time you touch the channel, right? So let's measure how long that is, right? From the time you touch it, right? Give or take about 42 days, 42 to 50 days, right? And then you reverse. Back to the upper band. Again, same thing here. You touch it, reverse back to the upper band. You touch this again, you reverse back to the upper band, right? This is mean reversion on the daily chart. I don't like— again, feel free to experiment with this indicator. I don't use this for my trading. I use this to give me more confirmation that we are indeed in an accumulation zone, right? So feel free to experiment with this on a lower time frame. Personally, I use it just on the daily chart just to figure out where we stand on the big picture, right? So let's go back further in time. See, you touch this channel, bam, right? You know, you reverse, you touch this channel. So let's see how long we spend inside that channel, right? So from the moment you touch it, that's about 10 days. And this is my new— the bottom of the bear market, right? See over here as well, maybe you spend just under— so from the moment you touch it, so that's about 48 days as well, right? 50 days. So let's say 50 days. But you can see how accurate this indicator has been historically speaking, right? You have 1, 2, 3, basically 100% success rate. You do not spend more than 50 days within the proximity of the band. So let's move on to present day. In the present day, we have currently spent about, you know, a whole 4, 5, 6 days inside the band, and we are already showing signs of reversing. Right, could we go back in? Yes, absolutely. Based on the scenario that I laid out for you guys in the one, you know, the lower time frame, yeah, we are probably going to go back in again. But you stretch this out and you assume 50 days, so basically by March you are going to start reversing. And that's when I, like in the last few videos, right, as bearish as I may seem on the lower time frame, I'm just giving you guys updates based on what the market makers are doing in the lower time frame. It is all a game of liquidity. Once you understand where the liquidity is, you can be successful on a lower time frame. That's why I can seem bearish on a lower time frame, just because that's what I'm seeing, right? That's because that's just where I see the liquidity being at. But on a higher time frame, I am a giga bull, right? I am. I truly believe in crypto, not just for you know hype or whatever, but just I believe it's going to be the future, and anyone who's not taking advantage of these times. To invest and hold for a longer period of time, for example five years and above, they're really going to regret it in the future. So with that said, you know, you are in a very key accumulation zone right now. It's not the time to be getting bearish. If anything, start accumulating. The band starts from thirty-five thousand eight hundred, which we're very close to right now, and the bottom of the band, right, or rather the mean of the band, right, the lower band is about thirty k. Am I saying I'm going like? Am I saying we're going to go back to? $30K, you know, potentially. It depends on what's going on at a lower time frame. It depends on what's going on with Bitcoin volatility. It depends on what's going on with Bitcoin dominance. It also depends on how the liquidity is looking like. Is there a lot of shorts or longs built up over here that the market makers can just, you know, swoop down and take out? How is the open interest looking like? How is the funding rate looking like? How is longs versus shorts? There are a lot of factors that you have to take in. But it does not change the fact that nobody knows exactly where it's going to be. Like, nobody knows exactly where the bottom is going to be at, right? I, I can, I can get pretty close, I can get very close, but at the end of the day, you know, sometimes when you wait for the bottom to hit, it tends to, you know, you might just miss the trade altogether. So basically what I'm trying to get at is, again, I've said this many times in the last few videos, Now it's not the time to be getting bearish. This is just one additional piece of confirmation and proof that this is indeed not times to be getting bearish. And all of this stuff I've already shared in my Discord group like days prior. So if you want to get the latest market updates plus any coins that I'm looking at, as well as follow along with all of the trades that I might be taking, you're going to want to check out the private Discord group. This is where you're going to get, you know, again, latest market updates get access to the trading course where if you want to level up your trading, it's going to be the place to be. And you know, as a bonus, we're pretty much making money every single day, so it's going to pay itself off pretty quickly. So again, if you're interested, check it out. Link is in the description below. If you're not, it's all right, right? I share quite a lot of stuff on YouTube that hopefully is of help. And if this video is indeed helpful to you, make sure you drop a like on this video. It's a really small gesture, but it really helps a lot. So as a bonus, thank you guys for staying until this point in the video so far. I'm going to give you guys a bonus trade. So in this instance, I'm going to take a look at, let's see, Illuvium, right? Illuvium, if you ignore the fact that it is in the bottom band right now, quote unquote, the accumulation zone, there are other factors that I like to look at when I take a look at Illuvium. So let me go on to the KuCoin chart. Let me go on to the KuCoin chart and Let's discuss this. At the moment, let's turn off the mean reversion channel. It doesn't really work on coins that don't have much history behind it. In this case, Illuvium hasn't even been out on exchanges for more than 6 months. So definitely don't use the mean reversion channel, at least I don't recommend it, on coins below 1 year old. So in this instance, I want to show you Illuvium, right? At the moment, not only are you forming Some kind of a consolidation pattern, something like that. But you are going into a major zone of demand right now. If I just bring up the VPVR, although it's—I'm not really sure if it's going to show me what I want to see. But basically, understand that right here you see volume pickup. Right now, you are in an accumulation zone for Illuvium that is going to be between $570, $525, and $460. In the next few months, Illuvium. Which is, to my knowledge, the first AAA blockchain game, is going to be releasing its game soon, which will bring a lot of attention and a lot of hype to this coin. So for the next 3 months, this is a coin that I'm going to be prioritizing. I have already filled up quite a big bag during this dump. I'm not saying that it cannot go lower. In fact, it absolutely can. If Bitcoin decides to just nuke, right, and just dump, Illuvium is going to do the same as well, and it's going to go into negative price discovery. Should you be worried? I don't think so. Illuvium is one of the most hyped up games in the blockchain, you know, just industry, right? NFT games. And I think the fundamentals are really good for this coin, and I think this coin is here to stay. Illuvium is here to stay. So should you panic? I don't think so. But just in case, set a stop loss beneath the all-time low because you don't want to fall into the trap of having a coin go into negative price discovery Such as this, right? You lose the all-time low, you go into negative price discovery. It's never fun. Let's take a look at another one, right? Broccoli. Yeah, I don't see the USDT pairing. So back to Illuvium, right? Let me just give you guys a few take profit targets for Illuvium. In this case, if you do buy here, right, assuming that you don't get stopped out. In this case, I'm going to set a stop at like give or take $400, right? Give or take, assuming that you don't get stopped out. The take profits are going to be 737, 961, 1138, 1366, 1686, and about $2,000. Can it go higher? Absolutely it can, right? You draw a fib from that swing high to that swing low, and you know, these are the higher targets, right? It can absolutely hit $3K or even $3.5K. But at the moment, we still don't know if this is going to be the exact bottom yet, so that's why I'm not marking out higher levels. Once we confirm that this is indeed the bottom, then we can talk about it. Although I likely will not update on this coin again, but I will update this weekly on the private Discord group, right? There's just so many coins for me to cover that I cannot dedicate a video to every single coin, right? That's where, that's where the purpose of the private Discord group comes in, right? The coins that I truly believe in, the coins that I'm investing in, I will give weekly updates on those coins. So if you're interested, Check out the private Discord group. But otherwise, if you're still here at this point, please comment down in the comment section ILV, right? It really helps the YouTube algorithm out a lot, and it shows me who appreciates the video and finds it helpful enough to stay till the end. So I know this has been a pretty long video so far, but I really hope you enjoyed it. For now, may the gains be with you, my friend, and peace.