In this solo market commentary, The Art of Crypto explains why he expects Bitcoin to move lower in the short term before a potential rebound. He starts by describing the typical weekend liquidity pattern, where the price forms a range between Friday’s high (~$38k) and low (~$36.2k) and then exhausts both sides of liquidity at the start of the week. Using this framework he identifies a "Judas swing" – a false move that clears buy‑side liquidity and sets up a three‑level formation (levels 1‑3) that historically leads to a deeper decline before an upward swing. He then brings in on‑chain data, focusing on the number of outputs per transaction and a high‑low metric, arguing that current low output levels suggest only a modest pull‑back (10‑20%) rather than a 30‑40% dump. Moon phases are introduced as an additional predictor; the upcoming new moon aligns with past instances of sharp declines, especially in down‑trends. Throughout, he outlines concrete trading tactics: maintaining a short position with specific stop‑losses around $36.2k and $35.5k, hedging with small long positions if the market reverses, and employing dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) at key levels ($34k, $32k, $29.3k). He promotes his Twitter, private Discord, newsletter, and trading course as resources for deeper analysis. The video concludes with a motivational note encouraging viewers to act despite fear, emphasizing that the bottom is near and disciplined DCA can capture gains.
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What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art Of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. I am recording this video outside right now, I don't— I am not in my office, so hopefully the audio is not going to be too bad. But anyways, in this video I'm going to be talking about Bitcoin and how I predicted that we were going to be going down instead of going up. I will explain my thought process, and in this video I am going to talk about as well as some, you know, other factors, you know, on-chain data, some indicators Just to understand where we are headed this week. Are we going to go back to like 34K or even 32K? Or, you know, is this going to be the end of it and we are going to start pumping? So if you want to figure out exactly what's going to happen, make sure you stick around to the end of this video. But otherwise, if you haven't already followed me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto, you're going to want to do so. This is where I'm sharing the latest market updates as well as any coins that I might be looking at. If you just want, you know, All the latest updates, check out the Twitter. But otherwise, let's get back into it. So let's discuss these two levels that I drew out before. So usually what happens on a Sunday, right, on a weekend, is that you tend to form a range between Friday's high and Friday's low, which in this case Friday's low was 36,200, Friday's high was about 38,000. And every time, every single time. When you come out of the weekend, you will always take out both sides of the liquidity before the true move shows itself. So for example, you got a false move right here on Sunday, right, which was yesterday, where you wicked above, right? You went above Sunday— sorry, Friday's high, and then you start reversing, right, to take out Friday's low. This always happens every single weekend. So if you want a, you know, more in-depth video discussing this, check out the video on the top right-hand corner, right? It's a pattern that repeats itself every week, and yet nobody talks about it. So that was the reason why I was able to predict, hey, you know, we're going to go short because, you know, you took out Friday's high already, right? Which means the buy side liquidity has been taken out. And by buy side, I just mean like shorts, because if you're short, then your stop loss would be up here, right? And when you get stopped out, you will market buy. So that's what I mean by buy side liquidity. So at the moment, we are still en route to taking out the sell side liquidity. Now the question is, do we take out only this side? Like, do we only go back to $36,100 or like $36,200, or do we go back to $35,500 as well as $34,000? So that's going to be the question we have to figure out. At the moment though, I am banking on the fact that we absolutely, absolutely hit $36,200. And for those of you who might be interested, I caught this trade yesterday. Right, caught the short. So if you want to take, you know, follow along with all my trades as well as get all the latest market updates, which I've already talked about yesterday, right, write a full-on newsletter about what I think is going to happen, then you're going to want to check out the private Discord group right over here. You're going to get access to the trading course as well, where if you just want to step up your trading, this is definitely going to be the place to do so. We are making money pretty much every single day, and let's just say You're going to make back your money pretty, pretty quickly. So let's get back into it, right? Just to show you, at the moment we are still en route down here because what's going to end up happening is, in my opinion, is something that you call the Judas swing. So every time you get a weekend range, right, you wake up, you wake down. This is the Judas swing, right? And then you show the true direction, right? Which, if you haven't already watched that video that I linked on the top right-hand corner, it's going to look something like this, right? You have your first accumulation. Actually, let me just draw it out for you guys so that it's not as confusing. So it's going to look something like this, right? It's like a 3-level formation. This is level 1, level 2, level 3. And then, you know, you come down, same cycle, you repeat it again. And as you can see, currently we are following exactly like that pattern, right? You have your level 1, level 2, you know, your range just a bit here, and then, you know, you're coming back down. So this always happens like Every week. So right now we have to figure out, are we indeed going to form that kind of a pattern? And if we are, then we are very likely going to come back down to at least $35,500-ish, right? Just to take out the liquidity here before we do another Judas swing to the upside. And if that happens, right, you're going to get level 1, level 2, maybe a level 3 at $40,000. And then Thursday, Friday, you're going to come back down. So this is what I'm expecting this week. At the moment though, I am still short, and I will continue holding the short at least until $36,200 and at least like $35,500, right? If we decide to just wick down here and then reverse, then what I would do is I would open a— for example, right, in this position here, I took on 1% risk. So in this situation, I will take on a long position, risking 0.5% of my account, with a stop loss somewhere below here. Right? And if it comes back to here, then I'll add another 0.5% risk, and then I will close part of my short at both of these levels. This is something that you call hedging, and it is something that you do when you are unsure of market conditions. So when you do come down here, you know, either way you're going to make money. And when you do hedge long, right, when you go long here, you move your stop short— sorry, your short stop loss into profit. So that when it does, you know, finally reverse and goes into that 3-level formation, then your longs are going to be in deep, deep profit, and, you know, you secured all your profits from the short, right? That's the fundamentals of hedging. And at the moment, this is what I think is going to happen at least today or tomorrow. So right now, you know, let's get into a couple of other factors that I really want to talk about, and I'm just going to take it straight from the Discord group. So firstly, you know, let's take a look at on-chain data, right? The number of outputs per transaction for Bitcoin, right? Every time this thing spikes like really high, you tend to go through like short-term pullbacks. And when I mean pullbacks, I mean like dumps, like nukes. And at the moment, the number of outputs per transaction is, you know, back— it's very reset right now. And so this piece of data tells us that we are likely not going to see some kind of massive, massive 30 to 40% dump. If anything, we can still see 10 to 20%, but probably not 30 to 40%, which means more likely than not, I don't think we're going back to $28K in one single move. Of course, this can change. I'll be sure to keep you guys posted if anything changes. Now, the second one is to look at, you know, this one right here, metric description. So basically, every time this has came back down to this level, we have formed a high-low, right? And at the moment, we have come back down to this level, And if anything, we shouldn't be worrying that we're going to nuke another 30 to 40%, you know. Besides that, the one that I really want to talk about is moon phases. If I just bring this one up, right, and I know some of you guys are going to immediately put this off and say, wow, that's ridiculous, this guy is using moon phases to do his trading. But I just want you to go back to every single instance of a moon phase, right? The new moon is coming out tomorrow, right, 1st of February. And every single instance we have had this, right, we have had an immediate just dump, right? And this is— this effect is even more pronounced during times of a downtrend, right? When you get a downtrend, you get a new moon, bam, right? You get the new moon, bam, right? And at the moment, we're getting a new moon tomorrow. So this just lines up with the theory before that we are very likely going to just wick down below this point of liquidity before showing the true move upwards. Now the question is going to be, are we going to wick below 32,800? At the moment, I don't think we're going to. So for now, the levels to focus on is 34,000 for sure, right? Last week's video, I talked about 34,000. If we were to return back to this level, right, this is going to be your area for longs. So if you just take a look at a 1-hourly chart right now, you draw this, and this is a 1-hourly order block. And if you remember that pattern that I drew just now, right, The level three formation always comes back to the initial point of consolidation, right? Which you might argue could be this point right here. So if you ever get back to thirty four thousand, this is an area where I would definitely take a long. Not saying this is financial advice. I'm just telling you guys what I would do personally, right? With a stop loss at about thirty two eight hundred, right? Give or take. So that's going to be the plan for now. And you know, just on a side note, yesterday I saw a lot of people on Twitter. Talking about this, oh, ascending triangle, you know, big move is going to come, you know, you're going to go back to $40,000. You know, sometimes it helps to understand the market makers', you know, method of doing things. You haven't taken out Friday's low, so there's no way, right? Even if you do go up, right, it's probably going to be a false move. So at the end of the day, you know, not to say patterns don't work, but you got to apply it in the right context. At the moment, you know, yesterday, this was the wrong context, right? This ascending triangle thing. And moon phases, you know, moon phases, for all it's worth, is actually very effective. I think it probably has like a give or take like an 80 to 90% win rate, right? In the fact that you always have that kind of reaction whenever you get the new moon or the full moon. And currently, if you found this video helpful, it would help me a lot as well if you could just drop a like button. It's a small gesture, but it really, really helps a lot. So before I end this video off, you know, let's just say, let's just give you guys a piece of advice. The bottom is close, all right? The bottom is very close. Back then, I was talking about this zone being a potential bottom if we were to come back to revisit it. At the moment, we are, you know, we have already tapped into that area, and now is not the time to be fearful. Now is not the time to be getting fearful. If anything, you know, the people who pull the trigger and pull off some buys are probably going to be rewarded very heavily 3 to 6 months down the line. And so if you're If you're pretty fearful right now, my word of advice is the bottom is close. You don't necessarily have to catch the exact bottom in order to make money in crypto. That's where dollar cost averaging comes into play. You never ever want to just throw all your money down into one single position at one price point. That's never a smart thing to do. You look at the smartest traders in the industry and they tend to deploy their capital, their account capital, 1% at a time. And when they take profit, they take percent like 1 to 2% at a time. So just goes to show the power of DCA, right? Dollar cost averaging. So if that's you right now, the levels that I would still watch for in order to dollar cost average is going to be $34,000 as well as $32,000, right? Back then, $30,500 to $32,000, that level still stands. If we get that, right, I'm still going in. Again, not financial advice, just sharing to you guys what I would do. And I would definitely dollar cost average and pay attention to $29,300, right? This level is going to be absolute key. If you do get back here, right, what's going to happen is you're just going to wick down slightly above it— sorry, below it— and then you're going to do, you know, that Judas swing and you're going to reverse, right? Who knows if we're going to go back to $29,000. At the moment, I'm banking on $34,000 and $32,000. But either way, you know, don't wait until you're like, oh, oh, the bottom is in, the bottom is in. You know, just dollar cost average. It rarely fails. So for now, you know, just to summarize, I think we're going down and then we're going up, right? Down first, then up. And this should all happen within this week, right? So Monday, Tuesday down, probably went— maybe this move will actually end by today, you know, who knows. But for now, this is the plan. And if we go lower, you know, you guys are prepared for whatever happens as well. So for now, may the gains be with you, my friends. And peace.
