This Recent Bitcoin Move Is More Misleading Than You'd Think, Watch Out

So this right here is going to be the trade that you are going to want to take, and you definitely want to watch out for this one, and you definitely want to watch out for this one and this one. What's up guys, welcome to The Art Of Crypto, where we help you make a lot of money trading from the market maker perspective and with none of the retail confusing stuff. So last 2 weeks have been fairly boring. The price of Bitcoin has literally just been staying within this trading range from here to here. Now that matters a lot because every time you see a range, you immediately want to think there is a lot of liquidity down here and there's a lot of liquidity up there. Now what is the definition of liquidity? Basically, all of these previous lows here, and especially here as well as here where you see like relatively equal lows and relatively equal highs, will cause retail traders or just a lot of traders to believe that that level is resistance or quote unquote support. And when that happens, the market makers are immediately going to know that a lot of people are going to place a stop loss here, and a lot of people are going to place a stop loss above here. So if they bring the price to this level, a lot of people are going to get stopped out, and the market makers are going to make tons of money. So every time you see price going into a range, you always want to be careful because firstly, you do not want to get chopped up in the range. As you can see throughout the last 2 weeks, abs— almost nothing has happened on the Bitcoin chart. But the moment one of these levels are taken out, there's going to be an explosive move and you're gonna be able to take advantage of a short and a long depending on which level gets hit. Now that's pretty basic and all. So before we even look at the lower timeframe trading range, we should take a look at the higher timeframe. And this is going to be your pro tip number 2. When the market makers are doing the, like placing the biggest of their trades and placing the biggest positions, they're not looking at stuff like the 15-minute or the 5-minute. What they're looking at is the daily chart. So you always want to start your analysis with the daily chart regardless of if you are an intraday trader or if you are, you know, a short-term trader, and especially if you're a swing trader or position trader, because the daily chart will tell you which levels the market makers are going to target that you cannot otherwise see on a lower time frame. There's too much noise. So let's just try to understand what is going on on the daily chart first. And the first thing I want to bring to your attention is going to be these 1-day relatively equal lows over here. Now, if you take a look at these 2 yellow circles here, you can see that these 2 lows are very equal. And if you remember what I said in the beginning of the video, every time you see relatively equal lows, you always want to assume that there is a lot of liquidity here, and the market makers are going to be very interested in bringing the price to that level to take out all that liquidity. Because I want you to think about it this way, by the way. Anybody who got, you know, went long at any of these points here basically got a free ride back to the mid-$20Ks, $25K, right? And that's not good for the market makers because whenever you win a trade, they are paying you out of their own pockets. But whenever you lose a trade, your money goes to them. So it is in their best interest to cause you to lose money. Now, you've probably been in this situation before. where you hold onto a trade too long and you think, hey, it's going to go to the moon, so I'm just gonna hold on longer. And that greed is what ultimately causes you to fall prey to this, where they clear out every single point of liquidity. I want you to notice how the price always just takes out the liquidity, right? And then it reverses. And this is going to be a pro tip number 3. Whenever you see a key level like this get taken out, for example, when support gets taken out, a lot of you are probably trained to go short when support is broken because quote unquote support is broken, you know, it's, uh, it's, it's gonna— it's, it's a breakdown. But that's not how it works, especially in the eyes of the market maker. And that's what I'm trying to educate you on so that you don't fall prey to this trap again. So that's going to be another pro tip, which is don't hold on to your positions for overly long. Learn to identify when distribution is happening. For example, that is a 3 drives pattern right here, and I believe back at Back at this point, if you're following my Twitter at underscore the art of crypto, I would have said that this is when the FOMC meeting was happening, and that is just a catalyst for well not very good price movement. So you always want to look out for the FOMC meeting, which is another pro tip that a lot of people don't take into account. Now the way that you identify when the FOMC meetings are happening is you just go onto this website called forexfactory.com/calendar. This will give you a well. Basically everything that's happening in the financial markets, at least the important stuff. And I know this looks awfully confusing, and truth be told, 90% of all of this does not matter at all. What you want to do is you want to filter only by the expected impact, and you want to remove all these other currencies because what you're interested in is USD. And most importantly, you're interested in the FOMC meeting. Now usually The CPI is a very key event in the markets as well. And if you just go to next week, you can see that next Thursday at 2 AM, there is the FOMC meeting minutes. And then right afterwards, you have the CPI. So if you're wondering how all of these people know when all of these key events happen, that is forexfactory.com/calendar. Now it's very important that you pay attention to these events because they can be catalysts to do really, you know, just really shenanigans kind of price action. And on the trading days, where an FOMC or a CPI is happening, which is usually on Wednesday, you want to try your best not to be trading unless you know what you're doing because price action is going to be very volatile. And a lot of people get wrecked by this, at least a lot of people who don't know about these events, but you guys are prepared. So I just went on a very long tangent teaching you guys a lot about a lot of stuff. So let's just bring it back all together now and figure out, because that's probably what you're interested in, when you click on this video? Probably not, for some educational content. Which, by the way, if you guys are a fan of this educational content, or if you guys want me to just get to the point and tell you what you guys need to know, let me know in the comment section below. It'd be a great help so that I can give you guys more of what you like and less of what you don't like. So these 1-day relatively equal lows, we should expect them to ultimately get hit, but I don't think it's going to happen this week because at the moment we have just some liquidity over here at $20,200 to $20,400. Now, why do I bring this up? It's because on the daily chart, if you take a look at this candle here, that is what is known as a fair value gap. And not only is that a fair value gap, but that is also a 0.618 to 0.705, which is the Fib golden pocket. Now, just so happens that the 0.5 of that fair value gap is right at the 0.618. So that is a lot of confluence. So in my opinion, I think that we do not go down to $17K until we hit $21K. Now that's a very important level because the fair value gap, just like these relatively equal highs and relatively equal lows, what they represent are areas of liquidity. And these are areas of liquidity that nobody knows because, well, most people, 99% of people don't know about fair value gaps, but you guys do. And more importantly, the algorithms that reprice the markets really love fair value gaps because the thing about these algorithms is that they always want the markets to be in a state of equilibrium, And in order to do that, well, these gaps does not signify equilibrium. This is a gap of liquidity that needs to be filled. Always remember this. This is another pro tip, which is imbalances always get filled. That's why if you look at the CME futures gap, they always get filled one time or another. So in my opinion, I don't— I also don't think that we're going to hit $21K this week. I'm just saying that I don't think we're going to go back to $17K until we get some kind of a pump to clear out this liquidity first before going downwards. And we're going to tie all of this in with a lower time frame analysis. Whenever you get a market breaker structure, you always want to assume that price is targeting a level. And in this case, on the 4-hourly, this is the level that we're targeting. How do I know that? Well, remember back to pro tip number 1: above every swing high and every swing low is liquidity. That is why the markets always move in terms of liquidity. Check out this level right here. Once it takes out the liquidity, bam, reverses. Why does it reverse? Well, because a lot of you are going to be trying to go short here, and if you reverse it, a lot of you are going to be trapped here, and well, you're just going to lose money to the market makers. So this is the realistic level that price is probably going to be targeting. Now, am I confident that it's not going to just get rejected beforehand? Well, I can see that on the 1-hourly there is no like realistic areas of value or an order block or just some kind of supply-demand zone that I can take advantage of. And so that leads me to believe that this is going to be the key level instead of getting rejected somewhere beforehand. So that is the current situation, a short-term pump into a dump. Ultimately, it's going to go to $17K. As for when, I don't exactly know. Probably by next week's FOMC meeting because, well, FOMC meetings are, well, if I had to guess, I would say it's going to happen during next week's FOMC meeting at October the 13th. Now, usually FOMC meetings tend to be bearish, but of course we have to see how price action plays out. Plays out if either one of these levels get hit, which I do think it's going to get hit. And then we're going to observe price action and see if it does like a straight dump and break just a ton of market structure. So just be prepared for that. I'm definitely going to be making a second video on that, so make sure you subscribe and turn on the bell notification to get notified of when that video comes live. And remember to follow me on my Twitter @TheArtOfCrypto for the latest market updates. So now let's actually go into how you can use this information that I've just given you To make some money, because that's what we all care about, right? So what you want to do is you want to draw a fib from this swing low to this swing high, assuming that this is the swing high. At the moment, this is not the swing high yet. A swing high is basically a high where the high of the— is higher than the 2 candles right next to it. Uh, currently this is not it yet. There's 1 hour until this candle closes, but nope, this is even high. So you need to wait 5 more hours before this candle closes. And if this is the swing high, I want you to draw a fib from, you know, basically swing low to swing high, and you want to look for a retrace back into the 0.618 or the 0.705. What you're going to do then is you can place your stop loss wherever you want, it's up to you, and you're going to target this level right here. Why? Because that is the level of liquidity, and we have just broken market structure confirmed on the 4-hourly. Now, in order to confirm a bullish daily structure, we would need to break a confirmed break of structure above these This high at least. And what is a confirmed breaker structure? Now I'm going to pull up a tweet from Twitter right here. So this is how you determine if a breaker structure is actually a breaker structure or if it's just price manipulation. This is price manipulation when you only get the wick and you do not get a candle— like a candle body close. Now it doesn't matter how long the wick is, as long as you do not get a candle body close, it is price manipulation. The market makers are able to do that, so do not fall for this. For example, over here you still haven't broke structure, but here you break structure. So I hope this gives you insight into this. And remember, I post a lot of this on my Twitter, so make sure you subscribe to _TheArtOfCrypto. So if you get a confirmed break of structure here, then well, it just means that you're going to go way higher. And if that happens, I'm definitely going to be making a second video. So what happens if You know, price just blows right past this, takes out this low, and, you know, just keeps going down. Well, what you wanna do then is, if everything I've said in this video does not make sense and it is just going to target $17,600 or even $17,400, then what you wanna do is you wanna mark this low. What you wanna do is you wanna add an alert, right? Set an alert for when this happens. Price does not always go straight down or straight up. A lot of you have probably experienced that before. On the way down, there's like so many ups and downs, and you just panic, and you lose interest, and you get emotional, and you close the position too early. Now, what you want to do is, after you set that alert, you want to draw a fib again. Same thing, assuming that this is the swing high, what you want to do is draw a swing high to swing low. Just now we drew from swing low to swing high because we're looking for a bullish entry. Now you draw from swing high to swing low, and you look for the 0.705 and the 0.618 to go for a short. down to $17,000. If that makes sense, drop this video a like, and I'll see you on the next one. Bye-bye.