In this YouTube update, The Art Of Crypto provides a detailed market analysis of Bitcoin amid a significant week for crypto. He begins by highlighting unusually high volume on the Binance chart, interpreting it as a capitulation event and drawing parallels to four past instances where similar volume spikes preceded rebounds or consolidations. Using a Fibonacci retracement from the March 2020 low to the current high, he identifies the 0.786 level as a deep discount zone and explains the premium/discount dynamic driven by algorithmic trading that seeks price equilibrium. He pinpoints concrete buying zones around $17,500 (the first weekly swing low) and $16,000, while cautioning that these are not guaranteed bottoms. By examining historical bear‑market retracements (84‑87% of the prior bull run) he projects a potential bottom near $9‑$10 K, noting that liquidity levels (e.g., Celsius liquidation point) heavily influence price movement. He argues that the bear market may linger into September before a longer‑term macro‑bull trend resumes, emphasizing that Federal Reserve hawkishness and quantitative tightening are likely to keep crypto bearish in the short term. The speaker shifts from swing‑trading advice to a long‑term investment stance, urging viewers to buy spot, scale in, and hold for 2‑5 years to capture generational wealth, likening crypto’s growth potential to the early internet boom. Throughout, he offers psychological encouragement to stay disciplined, avoid panic, and view market losses as learning opportunities. He closes with calls to follow his Twitter and a private Discord for real‑time updates and references a proprietary tool for predicting Bitcoin tops and bottoms.
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What's up everybody? So just another update video, the 3rd one of this week, because this is quite a significant week in the history of not just Bitcoin but crypto. And in the last video I mentioned that we were likely to go below $20K, and if we were to go below $20K it would be a pretty volatile move, and I don't expect prices to stay below $20K for very, very long without, you know, some kind of rebound. And in this video, I'm going to share like a few data points that I feel that is going to help you at least not panic so much, and I'll give you the exact prices where I'm going to be placing bids at. If that's something that sounds like interest to you, then be sure to stick around to the end of this video. For now, let's dive right into it. Like, the first things I'm going to want you to pay attention to is the fact that in terms of the Binance chart, I want you to take a look at the volume right down here. You can see that at current volume levels, price is already considered to be in a capitulation event. Now, the other 4 times that price went, you know, that volume went this high was during this dump right here, where immediately you can see like a big rebound. This time during the May 2021 crash, where we got an extended consolidation. This other time right here, where we got a big pump right afterwards. This right here, which, you know, we're still continuing that move. And so history tells us that most likely after volume hits this kind of capitulation, just sort of levels, that price is either going to do a rebound or it's going to go into a consolidation. In my opinion, prices are going to continue to fall until a couple of levels, and then we're going to go into a consolidation for likely the rest of this year before a reversion back into a bull market back in late 2022. I mean, I wouldn't say bull market, you know, necessarily, but at least on a higher time frame, we will be reverting back into a higher time frame, just macro bull trend. Now, the reason why I bring up volume first and foremost is to let you know the significance of where we're at right now. Now, this is another example right here during the March 2020 crash where, you know, you know exactly where that took us. And at least on the Binance chart, these are the only times where we have got this kind of a volume in a capitulation event. And as you can see, every single one of these volume wicks is a major capitulation event. So currently we are already in— like, we're within capitulation essentially. And does this mean that it's time to, you know, start dumping in your money and expect some kind of huge rebound? Not necessarily, and I'll get into why that is right now. Now, if I bring up the drawings, you can see that if we draw a fib from the previous just macro low, which is the March 2020 low, to the current macro high, you can see that, you know, there is a very clearly defined range. And at the moment, we are very close to the 0.786 fib. Now, on the screen, you might see two words over here, which is premium and discount. Now what this essentially just means is that in every single financial markets there are algorithms that are designed to, you know, move the price. And these, these algorithms account for about 80% of daily trading volume. So it would be accurate to say that as long as you follow what these algorithms want to do, you're likely going to be successful in any financial markets. And currently the reason why I bring up discount and premium is the fact that whenever you see any kind of a range forming You're going to want to draw a fib and you want to identify the 0.5 fib level of that range. Anything above the 0.5 is a premium. Essentially, the algorithms think that, you know, that's expensive prices to be buying, and so they are more likely to bring prices lower. And in discounted prices, well, the inverse is true and they are going to want to reverse it back upwards. The reason they do this is because they want to keep price in equilibrium, right? Of course, there are times when price breaks out of a range, such as above or below, but most of the time, 70% of the time, they want to keep things within range. And The trick is to identify which range are these algorithms using, essentially. And currently we are already deep into the discounted levels, and 0.786 is going to be a very brilliant price. Now, can it still go lower? Absolutely. And I'll give you like my sort of quote-unquote bear market bottom prediction in the next point. At the 0.786, you can also see that there is a previous weekly swing low over there at 17,700 to 17,500-ish. Now, that is going to be a very good price to buy at. And if any of you are in the private Discord group, you can see that $17,500-ish is going to be a level where I'm going to be looking at buying. Now, do not mistake this for saying that, hey, you should put all your money into this and this is going to be the exact bottom. I'm not saying that. I'm not trying to catch a bottom either. I'm just saying that these are very good prices to be buying at the moment. And when you extrapolate this, right, as long as you do not expect a return within 3 or 6 months or so, right, a very good return within 3 to 6 months. And if you extrapolate this over over a 2 to 5 year period, which basically just means if you extrapolate this into the next bull cycle, this is going to be some of the best buying opportunities historically speaking for you to get a really good reward with very little risk involved. Now this is only if you are comfortable with the fact that you are extrapolating this over a 2 to 5 year period, and I would say that for the majority of you, you guys should be, because a lot of the times I hear people complain about, hey, you made all your money because you bought during the bear market. Well, duh, that's where most of the generational wealth is made. So if you want to make some generational wealth, you have to be involved in the bear market and continue to improve yourself when everybody loses interest. And when I say everybody, I mean most of retail, because they want quick gains. The moment there is no quick gains, then they just simply quit, because it's fun to be learning something and dedicating time into honing a craft. So seriously, if you guys value building generational wealth at all, the next 6 months are going to be absolutely key for you. In the context of crypto, right? The next 6 months is going to be absolutely key for you to start accumulating just good coins and extrapolating that out over a 2 to 5 year period. And that is where the serious money is going to be made. Now, currently my advice would just be to buy spot, right? We're not trying to catch the bottom here and scale in, right? I'm not using leverage to try to catch the bottom and like, you know, make a giga trade. I'm just buying spot, holding that over the next 2 to 5 years. Like these are investment prices, right? Anything above here, Those were trading prices, right? If you guys watched any of my videos from May of 2021 until like basically early this year, I was basically just talking about swing trading, right? Swing trading, swing trading, swing trading. But these, these are investment prices. There is a very notable difference between the both. And more notably, given that we are already close to capitulation, or maybe we are already at capitulation, is that going to be the bottom? Well, now I'm going to dive into that. The truth is I don't think that the bottom is going to come, you know, close yet. Because if we, you know, just base off the data of previous Bitcoin bull market tops to bear market bottoms, then we're going to see a very clear trend form itself, which is the fact that the average bull market to bear market retracement tends to take about 84 to 87%. The only anomaly would be the March 2020 crash where price went down by 72% over the course of 259 days. Now, if you take a look at every other instance, you can see that the price essentially went down. The first time, the first bear market, price went down by about 87% over the course of about 413 days. The second time, price went down by about 84% over the course of 371 days, which is about 40 days less. And the third time, well, I wouldn't necessarily call this a bear market, so we're gonna, we're gonna ignore that one. But currently you can see that prices at the moment from the all-time high is down by about 72, 73% at the moment. Which is similar to the May 2020 crash. And currently we are only about 217 days into this retracement. Now if we look at the obvious pattern where price, you know, the quote-unquote bear periods are getting shorter, progressively shorter and shorter— 413, 371 to 259— now it is at 217. Now if we, you know, consider that fact, then you could say that the bear market is going to be over soon. But If I were to make a prediction, I would say that this period from now until late September probably, or early September or mid-September, just September in general, we are still going to be either in a bearish trend or a consolidate— let's just say consolidation period. I don't expect us to just immediately reverse into a bull period, and I'll get into why that is. Now currently, if we were to compare the dumps from the all-time highs from the previous 2 bear markets, that is going to be 84% and 87%. Now if we compare that and we draw that out, that's 84%. Which would put us at about $10K, and 87% would put us at about $9K. It just so happens that there are equal lows and very key swing lows at $10K and $9K. So there is a chance, there is a good chance that that is where we're going to see the bear market bottom. And do not discount that possibility, because remember, when we are dealing with markets, liquidity is all that matters. Once you understand where the liquidity is at, you understand where the markets are going to move Next, I think that that phrase was um it was a pretty good rhyme. If you agree with the rhyme and you are sticking around the video until this point so far, you are already ahead of many many other people who have lost interest in the markets. And I want you to comment down in the comment section ninety percent because you are ahead of those people at the moment. Everybody loses money in the markets. That is just a normal part of life and normal part of this just the market cycle. But You know, once you lose money, you don't really lose anything. If you lose your health, you lose something. And if you lose your character, you lose everything. I don't remember which movie this was quoted by, but the guy who quoted this has a very fair point. The market's going up or down doesn't change who you are fundamentally. As long as you keep at this, you're gonna be successful. I blew up my account like many times before I was able to even remotely make some kind of a profit. So seriously, these times are going to pass and you're gonna have learned so much. Now back to the topic of the bear market low. Do I expect it occur, you know, anytime soon? Honestly, I don't really know, but if I had to guess, I would say that it would occur before September if we even get to that level at all. At the moment, we're still a bit far away. All depends on what the Fed does. Honestly, the current Federal Reserve approach against fighting inflation and just the general state of the markets is very hawkish, which means they are very aggressive in their policies and they're doing a lot of quantitative tightening. So if this trend continues over the next 3, 4, 5 months, maybe more, then expect the markets to continue being bearish because Bitcoin is— Bitcoin and crypto in general is some of the highest risk assets out there. It's very risk-on. Bad market conditions, or in other words a recession, risk-on assets simply do not perform as well. Now is that any cause for concern? No, because you know what we're doing here is we're discussing just investment stuff, and when it comes to investment you need to have a slightly longer time frame. For those of you who think that that is too long of a timeframe for you to make money, then think of it this way, right? Imagine if you catch Bitcoin at like $10K and you put this out over the next 5 years, and within the next 5 years Bitcoin's gonna be sitting at $200K, $300K. That would be a return of about 20 to 30x over a 5-year period. That is miles, miles, heads and shoulders above what kind of a return you could get from the traditional markets. A lot of people are just conditioned and numb to the fact that it's so easy to make money. It's been so easy to make money since 2008 during the financial, you know, market crash. And I'm telling you guys, slow and steady wins the race. You don't need to rush into making any bad decisions that is going to ruin your financial situation. You know, just invest, you know, give it some time to play out. At the end of the day, crypto is going to be really huge. It is the next big thing essentially, right? Back in the 2000s and like the 1990s, you had sort of the computer and internet boom And my sincere opinion, you might not agree with me, you might not agree with me, but I do think that crypto is the next big thing. And crypto is the internet what it was back in, you know, the early 2000s. And to those of you who agree with that and you can see the potential of crypto, you understand that the entire markets, right, not just the valuations, is going to be exponentially higher in a period of about 10 years. And imagine if you had a chance to invest in Amazon or Google back 2000, let's say. Well, they're gonna have went through ups and downs like Bitcoin is at the moment. Maybe not as volatile, but still everything started from, you know, a small thing, you know, snowballs into something bigger. So I hope you guys see where I'm coming from here. Catching the bottom is not what's important here, but for those of you who are interested in catching the exact bottom, then I do think that we're currently— since we are below $20K at the moment, the level from $20K Down to about 16K is going to be very volatile, but I do not expect this volatility to last a very long time. And chances are we're going to see some kind of a rebound, right? Some kind of a rebound, especially considering the fact that Celsius liquidation point is at about 15K at the moment. I think we're going to go close to that, but 17,700 is going to be the first level to watch, as mentioned in my previous video. And the second one is going to be at 16K, right? Give or take. And honestly, at this point, I'm just giving You know, random numbers, but these are still levels that you're going to want to watch for. And remember, if you want to follow along with the latest market updates and any emergency updates, you're going to want to follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. But otherwise, this tool right here is a tool that can predict Bitcoin tops and bottoms to a scary degree. And if you want to find out exactly how to use this tool, check out this video that I'm going to link for you. For now, take care, stay safe, bye-bye.
