UPDATE: Can Bitcoin go back to 15?

What's up everyone, welcome to another market update. Well, here we have it, ladies and gentlemen, the scenario that we have literally been talking about for the last 1.5 months probably has happened, and it's happened in one fell swoop. Remember how before I said that the market tends to move from periods of low volatility to high volatility and then from high back into low? And so time is not a very accurate predictor of when price action is going to hit the targets, because when the markets go into high volatility, well This happens. So in this video, we're gonna break down what is going to happen next with Bitcoin. Is it gonna go lower or is it going to go higher from here? Like, is this a buy the dip situation or not? And then we're gonna touch on Ethereum for just a little bit. And just for this video, we're not gonna do much altcoins because everyone wants to find out about Bitcoin. So I will dedicate another video to the altcoins. Before I get into it though, truth be told, the markets are always gonna go up or down. And if you've lost money during this dump, well, I've got good news for you because I have a free trading course that I launched 2 weeks ago and almost everyone inside that group is raving. about how valuable it is. And I'm basically giving you guys a trading strategy that works for absolutely free that you can learn within the next 2 to 3 weeks so that you can make money regardless of market conditions and you never have to worry about losing money when the market dumps again. That sounds like something you'd be interested in, make sure you sign up to the waitlist down below. In order to maintain the quality, I am controlling the quantity. So I am about to do another intake, so make sure you sign up below. But otherwise, let's get into Bitcoin. So the bearish scenario has played out pretty much fully. I did mention that last week this would be, you know, a pretty risky long, but if you still were a bull, then that would be your final chance in order to get into the markets. And so far Bitcoin has rejected this area perfectly, and you can see that was indeed the top. So now it's time to remove the bullish scenarios. Remove that, remove that, because, well, let's just say that it's no longer relevant. In fact, this one has to be removed as well. And let's take a stock check on what happened to Bitcoin. Essentially, Bitcoin went from taking out the range highs, which was my theory why Bitcoin was going to go down, because you have already swept the range highs. What happens when you sweep the range highs is that you tend to go for the range lows. Now, on the Binance spot chart, you can see that the price has not yet swept the lows, which would be theoretically speaking over there. But if we draw a candle— if we draw a line on the candle bodies, you can see that that has not yet been swept either. But the moment you go into a perpetual contract, which is where most of the volume during this bear market is coming from at the moment, you can see that price has indeed taken out the range low. And right now there remains one further target down below for Bitcoin to reach for before we potentially start looking for a long. Now just to put this into perspective, if we can draw this range here, something like that, right, where you have a range high and you have a range low, where price basically came from here, swept the range high, took out the range low, right? And it did not only take out the range low, but if you draw an extension right there It actually went to a 0.618 extension or a 0.05 extension. Now this type of setup happens very, very, very often inside the markets. And now we just have to see if anything lines up with the 0.5. And at the moment, the 0.5 lines up with this fair value gap here, which is right around this area. So going to narrow that down a little bit. So basically everything is pointing to the fact that Bitcoin might potentially come back to this fair value gap over here. So So that is a level that we want to be watching, which is at 21,000. Is that likely to happen? I personally don't think so. In fact, personally, I'm looking for this level to find support and then another setup kind of like that. But that is purely based off of the price action. As a trader, it is also very important to keep an eye out for the macro situation. And that is the fact that I am expecting the next bull market to start somewhere around April to maybe June of next year. And the bottom of the market should be coming somewhere around February. As of the time I'm recording this video, it is late August, so Personally speaking, based off of the macro, if Bitcoin does not bounce from here, right, if it comes down here, I wouldn't even buy this. Sure, there might be a little bit of a bounce, which for the intraday traders you can take advantage of that situation, but it's going to bounce into an area where it's going to get rejected, right? Just like in a bullish market structure, we look for higher lows to form in order to create higher highs, higher low, then create higher highs. Right now I believe this is the start of a downtrend, and right now Any pump back up is going to be an opportunity for you to go short in order to create a lower high and then eventually a lower low. Why do I think so? There are a few pieces of information that you can use to determine this. Now I'm going to pull up this tweet that I did just the other day replying to someone who asked me how do I determine if we have found a macro bottom or if we have found a macro top. There are basically 3 factors that I can narrow this down to. Going to talk about the first one, which is Bitcoin halving cycle. The next halving cycle is going to be in April next year, and the bottom tends to come, historically speaking, 1 to 2 months before every Bitcoin halving cycle. So using that timeline in mind, we have a rough timeline of about February to maybe March for a potential bottom, which also means that it needs time to get to that bottom. If you look at macro market bottoms, it tends to be areas where price capitulates, right? Something like that, something like that. Those are how macro market bottoms look like, and I can safely say that this at the moment doesn't quite look like it. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin were to come back down into the mid-$10Ks over the next 6 months before that being the bottom and price moving from there. And before you start arguing this concept, just remember, if you've never seen it before, that means there's a first time for everything. Just because something like this has never happened in Bitcoin's history— oh, a dump like this cannot be possible— there is always a first time for everything, right? Do you want to learn more about these types of quote-unquote black swan events? I highly recommend you read the book Black Swan by Nicholas Nassim Taleb. I Even go so far as to say that it's required reading for anyone that is involved in the markets at all. So Bitcoin halving cycle points to February as a potential timeline, February to March. Now the second one is going to be whether the Fed is in a state of quantitative easing or quantitative tightening. Basically, quantitative easing is when interest rates are low and money is free-flowing and everyone has easy access to money. Quantitative tightening is the exact opposite of that, where money is very hard to come by and it's very expensive. That's why you're seeing nobody buying assets at the moment. Assets like Bitcoin, like stocks, like real estate. Because basically inflation is high, people are not having enough money, and the Federal Reserve is also doing quantitative tightening, which makes it hard for people to get loans, or rather makes it hard for people to get cheap loans. Now, historically speaking, the Federal Reserve tends to start cutting rates, right? Cutting interest rates. Third factor, interest rate cuts. Now, historically speaking, the Federal Reserve tends to cut rates between a period of 12 to 18 months after every yield inversion curve. We got the yield inversion curve roughly 12 months ago. So historically speaking, like this yield inversion curve has managed to predict basically every recession dating back to the Great Depression. So it's not really something that you can argue with, and the theory and the logic behind it is very sound. So this is also pointing to the fact that a rate cut will happen anytime within the next five to seven months. Now why is the rate cut important? Because historically speaking, after every Federal Reserve rate cut, the market will always. Tank. In fact, the markets will always capitulate, almost always, after every rate cut. You might think, oh, but the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, that's a bullish thing, right? No, apparently the market doesn't think so. So all of this, right, all of this is pointing back to a timeline of the market capitulating sometime during the early— like sometime during early next year, finding a bottom, and then aggressively recovering that bottom to kickstart the next bull market in line with the Bitcoin halving cycle, in line with You know, an official quote unquote recession, and in line with when the Federal Reserve is finally cutting rates and people finally have money to buy assets again. And to top it all off, we have BlackRock who have pushed their ETF to 2024. I'm willing to bet like these people, they own like 80% of the world or something. These people own almost everything. Any company that you can think of, BlackRock has a stake in it. That includes the media company that posted the fact that Elon sold $370 million worth of Bitcoin or something. And it wasn't even a recent event. They just brought it up using the media outlets that they own. But whether you want to believe me or not, I am willing to bet that BlackRock is going to use this opportunity to tank the price of Bitcoin very low before they buy and they start the ETF, and that's going to kickstart the next bull run. It really doesn't take a genius to see what these market makers are trying to do. They're just trying to manipulate you and make you lose a ton of money. So now that you understand the macro situation on Bitcoin, you can see why I might be bearish on this. So Basically, how can you take advantage of this? Firstly, it's just momentum trading. A lot of beginners struggle with this concept that if something has pumped already, it means that they cannot buy for some reason. What that matters is your target. For example, right now we're targeting $23,000, and that is another $3,000 drop before we reach that target. So knowing the fact that it is going to get to this area, why wouldn't you short? Like, if you were certain that it was going to go there, why wouldn't you short? So just because something is high does not mean you cannot buy it anymore. You just got to buy high and sell even higher. Similarly, something is low already, you just gotta sell low and then buy even lower. That's how it works. That's how the market works. And if you read any book by any like professional trader, like a legendary trader, they always say the biggest moneymaker is always momentum trading. Something goes up, he will keep buying it until it basically stops going up. If something's going down, I will short it to zero. So first step is momentum trading. Basically any time that you get a fair value gap, for example right now on the daily chart you have this fair value gap over here, and if you were to retrace back into it in the next few days— I expect to happen, I expect this to happen sometime during next Monday or Tuesday— you retrace back into it, that is a short area for you to take a short. And you just basically focus on shorting over the next few months and you are going to be golden. That is on the side of momentum trading. What about, you know, some high probability area where you can get in? Well, the high probability area in this case is going to be at about $30,000, which honestly I do not expect Bitcoin to return back to this area because there are a lot of people who bought here thinking that it was support or, you know, whatever. They are right now in loss. If, if they haven't been liquidated already, they are in a deep loss right now. There is no reason for the market makers to bring the markets back up to let these people have a get-out-of-jail-free card. So my bet is that definitely not going to come back to this quote-unquote ideal zone. So let's try to narrow down our range even more and let's see if there's any other potential areas. This would be around $28,500, which also I don't think they are going to dump the— like, just pump the price back up. Just for context, There are a lot of people who shorted down here. Once price took off, you never really came back, and there's a really good reason for that. So I expect momentum trading to be the, you know, the leading trading style over the next couple of weeks until you start going back into a period of low volatility when you get ranges forming. Then you can start trading ranges, and you can start, you know, for example, when you deviate above the range high, then you can take a short and wait for the next low to form. For example, that's going to be the high probability trade setup. For now, I would suggest the only level that I would even consider, like if it retraced back to where I would start looking for a short, is $27,400. This is the bearish scenario. Basically, price, you know, comes back to this area, take a short, something like that. Or price comes into the fair value gap, take a short, probably something like that. That is the 2 bearish setups targeting $23,000. And of course, this is a pretty far target. It's going to take a couple of weeks, maybe 3 weeks to hit. Don't expect this to hit immediately. Because I'm giving you my analysis on the daily chart, all of these trades should be treated as a swing trade. Now, what about on the bullish side, right? What if this was just a sweep of range lows and then price is going to go up? Now, this is a moment where I really want to hear from you guys. Why do you think that Bitcoin is going to go up from here, right? Price action aside, what are the macroeconomic factors that leads you to believe that Bitcoin is going to go up from here? Because as I've mentioned previously already, there are 3 like really big factors that Explains why this might be the top, right? The bear market relief top. The next few months is just going to go back into a downtrend, back to 15, 12K. If you think it's going to go up, let me know why. But the only reason I can think of where Bitcoin's going to go up from here is you've taken out this range lows and you're going to take out range highs. That's how range trading works. But I'm curious to know what you guys think. Leave it down in the comment section below, or just tag me on Twitter if you want to write something bigger. But At the moment, that is the side of Bitcoin. And now let's get into Ethereum. Now Ethereum is not going to be faring much better. I already said for the last probably like 3 months, Ethereum and Bitcoin has been like— Ethereum has been consistently weaker than Bitcoin for the last 3 months, and I do not expect this to change. By the way, this is just a quick tip: if Bitcoin is going to go back into an extended bear market, I highly recommend you guys to sell whatever altcoins you have Not financial advice, right? It all depends on your timeline. If you have a timeline of like 5 years and you don't really care what price is doing in the short term, then sure, go ahead, hold it. Anything below like a timeline of like 5 or 3 years, then let's just say that altcoins are going to continue leading over the next few months. Because as times become even more uncertain, what do people gravitate towards? Well, they gravitate to assets that have a bit more certainty. And even though crypto as a whole is not a very certain asset class, it's not a very safe asset class, Bitcoin is still the safest amongst all the other coins. It doesn't take a genius to figure out how mass psychology is going to work in uncertain times. But on the side of Ethereum, check it out, we have hit TP2 rather perfectly. But of course, the midterm bear target is still in place. In fact, it's in place even more than ever, as long as this is not just a liquidity sweep for prices to go even higher, which at the moment I don't see it yet. Again, if you guys have any reasons why that I might be missing That paints a bull picture, please let me know. This is what the community is for. Instead of trying to come up with trade ideas alone, we work together with people with similar skill sets. Power of 100 minds compared to one. So Ethereum, basically, again, bearish target played out, and I said TP2. Range low is TP1, this is TP2. That's basically been hit, so we can now remove these targets and these things. So what next is the real question. So again, there are only 2 scenarios at the moment. We are having this kind of setup where we sweep the range highs. Right now we're sweeping the range lows. Maybe this leads to us forming a new high, which is exactly what this kind of setup is at the moment. But the second most likely scenario, just based off of the information that I've given you on Bitcoin, just momentum trade this and trade it all the way down to the midterm bear target, which is $1,425. And this has been perfect, by the way. Looking at this, absolutely perfect. In fact, if you guys have made any money Using the advice that I've given you over the next two months, or even just saved money, right? Maybe after watching my videos, you decided to sell all your coins, and at least you prevented a huge like twenty twenty-five percent drop across the board. Comments like that really give meaning to what I do because most of the time I'm just speaking to a computer screen, and reading your comments always make my day. Anyways, returning back to Ethereum, we're just going to do the same thing: draw a fib, and at the moment that seems to be the area of value for Ethereum for a short, which is at around seventeen eleven. So if you return back into this area, that's going to be an area where you can look to short, maybe take profit somewhere there. Like, just to give you an example of how I would do it, probably go into the 1-hour chart. Okay, right now we have a range formation right here. And by the way, all of these things you can learn in Trading Accelerator. I teach you guys exactly how to do this in Trading Accelerator. You sweep the range lows, right? That's range lows. You sweep it. You sweep the range high. After range high, you come back, sweep the range low. Now you are in progress to sweeping the range high. Nope, you actually— you've already swept it. So the next time that you sweep the range lows, which is liquidity here, here, here, and here. So basically, for example, I would do it like that, where if you sweep this, target the range high for a range extension to $17.11. And, you know, a possible trade idea would probably look like this, which will net you like a 5.6:1 risk-to-reward ratio, which is still an amazing trade. In fact, I will set an alert right now. Just so I don't miss this. That's how I would do it in the short term, just by using the information that you have on the high time frame to frame trades to place on the lower time frame, is how you do— which is basically how you be profitable trading. And you can learn this all free just by signing up to the waitlist down below. Anyways, if you enjoyed this video, make sure you like and subscribe for more content like this. And remember to follow me on Twitter because that's where I'm sharing any of the latest happenings in the market. And if you're ever feeling uncertain, just drop me a tag on Twitter and I'll be happy to help. But otherwise, I will see you guys maybe in another video this week that will be talking about some altcoins. Take care, trade safe, bye-bye.