UPDATE: Is Bitcoin Back?! Or Are They Manipulating You?

What's up everybody, welcome back to another market update video. In this week, we are going to talk about this Bitcoin pump. What does it mean for Bitcoin? Does this mean that it's going to go, you know, all the way up, or, you know, is the previous bearish scenario still in play? Now I do have to apologize for not recording a market update last week. I was getting busy preparing for a trip to Europe, which I am at at the moment. But this week and, you know, the rest of the future weeks I will be here unless of course I'm on a plane flying. But otherwise, let's get into Bitcoin. We're going to talk about Ethereum, and Solana's been popping off lately, so we're going to cover Solana as well. So let's just dive right into it. First things first, why is Bitcoin pumping? Well, there are a few theories to that. Number one is one that we have discussed before on this channel, which is the fact that the range low over here, right, the liquidity here has already been taken. And the way that liquidity works is that the market is always gyrating between the point of the highest liquidity to the next point of highest liquidity. For example, Once you have taken out this swing high over here, there is no longer any stop losses above this area, and basically most of the liquidity has already been webbed. Basically all of the, or rather most of the liquidity has already been swept above this level, so there's not really much of a reason for the market makers to bring the price higher. Instead, they started, you know, dumping the market and putting in bearish market structure, which we called, by the way. We said that Bitcoin was going to go down and to short within this blue block here. That would have been the exact top before the massive move downwards. And this is not the only example where This has happened. Basically, over here you formed a lot of relatively equal lows. You swept all of those lows plus the institutional liquidity that is below these daily candle body lows. And yeah, right now you're pumping. So the question that is on everybody's mind right now is, you know, is this going to continue? Well, one of the theories that we discussed was, again, it's the sweeping of the range low. And usually when range lows are swept, you target the range high. At the moment, the previous quarterly high is going to act as our range high, which is $31,800. Now, of course, it would be pretty boring if Bitcoin were to just stay range-bound within this level and this level. So Would there be a possibility where you know it breaks out of this level and heads over to 35K, as we predicted on this channel to happen sometime during summer this year? Which obviously that didn't happen. Now that is a possibility. But before I expand more on that possibility over there, I want to talk about the second reason why people believe, or rather why most people believe, that Bitcoin is pumping at the moment. And that has to do with the fact that it is October, and historically speaking, October has always been a good month for Bitcoin. Now couple of things that are concerning right off the bat, and this is the part where I expand on. You know what I said earlier? If we look at just every single one of the major assets, let's look at the DXY first. The DXY is still strong as ever. And for those of you who don't know what the DXY is, it is essentially called the US dollar index, and this basically just denotes the strength of the US dollar. Now, the reason why this matters is because Bitcoin is paired against the USD, right? Imagine if the USD is going up. Well, obviously the Bitcoin has to go down. And if the USD is dumping, right, if the USD is losing value, people put more of their money into Bitcoin, and hence it, you know, goes up. Now, this is a very oversimplified explanation of how the dynamic between the DXY and Bitcoin works, but in general, all you need to understand is that as the DXY— every time the DXY goes up, every single risk asset tends to go down. I'll give you an example. This is the point right here where the S&P 500 hit my bear target, right? This is like I was predicting this hop here basically, and I called this trade over here. So is going absolutely beautifully, although it did take quite a few days for this to fill. In fact, to be exact, it took about a month before this entry filled. But just goes to show that patience is a virtue in the market. But if you trace this movement back to the DXY, you can see that this happened shortly after the DXY started pumping, right? If you look on the left side of the chart and then you look on the right side of the chart, you can see that the lines sort of intersect. Now I'm going to give you an even more obvious example because the S&P 500 is a bit of an outlier, right? At least this movement Was a little bit of an outlier. What if we look back to the point where the DXY started dumping, right? Look at the line on the chart. Look at when the DXY starts dumping and look at when the S&P 500 starts pumping, right? S&P 500 and all stocks are considered risk assets, right? These are equities. These are very subject to you know the fluctuations in the DXY, and the reason for that is because when the DXY is going up, it also means that government bonds are generating a much greater return. When this happens, a lot of institutional investors, which you must understand. The goal of institutional investors is not necessarily to grow their wealth by like 10, 20, 30, 40% a year. The goal is usually more capital preservation. And because of that, imagine like if you were managing like a couple hundred million dollars worth of assets or even a billion or a couple billion, if you had the opportunity to take a pretty much risk-free, just 4% a year or something by investing into government bonds as the US dollar index is going up in strength, You would probably take it, and that's what you need to understand. As the DXY gains in value, a lot of institutional investors take the safe route. They pull investments out of the risk assets, and guess where that money goes, right? As money comes out of the risk assets, it goes into the bonds and into DXY. Hence, risk assets don't really perform well when the DXY is doing good. Now let me also draw a picture, and this is why, like, at the moment, like, Bitcoin is a complete outlier. To the performance of the DXY. Bitcoin is basically like decoupled from DXY at the moment. But let me just paint another picture of, you know, how did the— when Bitcoin started pumping, right? If you look at this point here, this is where DXY found its top. And look at the exact point when Bitcoin started pumping. And over here, this was where the DXY started dumping again. And look on the right on the Bitcoin chart, you'll see the correlation. But Again, this time is it is a little bit different because the DXY is still standing strong, but Bitcoin, well, let's just say that it's also standing strong. So what do we need to understand about this case? Well, first things first, October, while it is a pretty generally a pretty good month for Bitcoin, one of the things that you must keep in mind is the concept of the power of three, and basically it simply denotes that you know right now because it's a new month, we want to look at the monthly candle. If you are bearish, basically all the power three boils down to. Is the fact that you are bearish for the day, or bearish for the week, or bearish for the month, or even if you are simply bearish on the hour. What you want to do in that case is every hour, right? Every candle has an open, high, low, and close, right? If you are bearish on the asset, you basically want to short, go short anywhere above the open. So for example, at the moment, Bitcoin price has opened at 26,962, right? You can see on the top left here, OHLC—that's open, high, low, close. Now, the power of 3 essentially denotes that if you are short on the asset for the month, basically you go short anywhere above the daily open, or in this case, the monthly open. Now, I use this to a huge advantage on the daily open when I'm trading intraday, especially when it comes to forex assets, but this works wonderfully on Bitcoin as well. But basically, one of the things that you do want to keep in mind is that overall, right, just generally overall, especially if you look at the daily chart, you look at the weekly chart, You look at how the DXY is performing, like it doesn't seem to be slowing down. You look at how the Federal Reserve is probably not going to pause rates. Maybe they might pause rates next month, but either way, the situation still seems kind of shaky for, you know, a $35K Bitcoin. Now, I am not one to, you know, reject the idea of price action. Like, I am a firm believer that if the price action is showing you that it wants to go up, then, you know, you should take it. Because at the end of the day, As a trader, the ultimate skill that determines whether or not you make money in the markets comes down purely to your ability to read what the market is telling you subjectively without inputting your own personal bias into it. If the market is telling you it wants to go up, you listen to it and you go long regardless of what other instincts or what other people might be telling you. Now, even though I am a firm believer of that, the power of 3 and also the fact that the overall macroeconomic situation just doesn't seem to be in a position where it favors risk assets at the moment is something to keep Keep in mind. But otherwise, let's come back into the price section and give you guys a a game plan basically of how you can take advantage if Bitcoin does decide to go to 35K or if you want to position yourself on a very beautiful short for a power of three downwards expansion below 25K and beyond. So first things first, at the moment Bitcoin has been putting in bullish price action ever since this move here. Once you broke above that previous daily high with a candle body close and you Which is exactly the bullish scenario that I was describing for like the past few weeks, right? I kept telling you guys that, you know, once you get a confirmed daily candle body close, what you want to do is you draw a Fib, right? This is easy trading, right? Every single time it always comes back down to this. Literally, you draw a Fib at where you get a swing high and a swing low. Now, ideally, I usually go for the 0.705, but in this case, it finds support at the 0.5 of the Fib, and now it's pumping and forming new highs. And this forming new highs is a confirmation That it is indeed bullish. A lot of people tend to jump the gun. They, the moment that this happens, yeah, cool, it might be bullish, right? It might be, but there's no telling that the retrace is not a retrace and it's just a liquidity grab. So the way that you confirm that is that once you retrace and you form a new high, oh man, now you're in pure bull territory. So at least on the daily chart, it is looking bullish. And if you look at the monthly chart, it doesn't look overly bearish as well, just because of the fact that you didn't get a candle body close beneath this low here. So I think shaping up to be bullish, you know, honestly it's hard to tell. What I'll do is I will look to prioritize longs until it stops showing me signs that it wants to keep going up. And let me break down how that's going to happen. Now the way I usually approach this is I mark out some levels of daily liquidity. In this case, a good level of daily liquidity to aim for would be $30,200. Now this assumes that the high time frame bias at the moment for Bitcoin is going to be around $30,250, $30,200. Over here is when you have Relatively equal highs. Now, relatively equal highs also means that there are a lot of traders placing their stop loss above this level, and right now the market makers are going to recover that liquidity. And if, like, some could argue that if you are heading all the way to $30,250, why not just go higher, right? There is liquidity over here, and then of course there's the $35K magic number. That could happen. But again, the way that I trade is I listen to what the market tells me, and as long as the market is telling me that it wants to go up, then I'm just going to keep prioritizing longs. So this is how it's going to work. Basically, most of you are not going to be trading on the daily chart. Let's just put it that way. Most of you are going to be trading, you know, either intraday or short-term or even as day traders. And once you have the higher time frame bias in mind, which is what this video helps you to do, is to give you the higher time frame bias. And once you have that in mind, it's very easy every day. What you simply look for is prioritized longs, and it's as easy as that because you know that as the bias is going up, you want to trade with the trend. The trend is your friend after all. Everybody says that, and yet so few people actually accomplish the feat of trading with the trend. Well, now I'm telling you that at the moment, right, just at the moment, the trend is up, and the only thing that would like completely just invalidate this trend is that today's Monday. Today is the opening range. There could be a possibility. And also, this is the start of the month. This is literally the start of the month, and you have just swept buy side liquidity up here. Is there a chance that But starting Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, you're going to start, you know, just dumping? Absolutely. And this is the scenario that I am leaning more towards at the moment. If you think one step ahead, when you have the bearish bias in mind, this could be an opportunity for you to position yourself for a short. But based on my style of trading, I would highly recommend to wait for confirmation before you do jump into shorts. And the way that confirmation is going to come for me in this case is going to be looking at this level right here at $26,000. Now, if Bitcoin breaks $26,000 over the next couple of weeks with a candle body close beneath this low, then 100% you are completely back in bearish mode. And that next move is going to expand to $25K minimum, but more likely than not, it's going to go to $24K, it's going to go to $23K, and possibly even lower. If we just extrapolate, you know, this range here, it wouldn't be a surprising thing. Yeah, again, the calculated move for this, you know, dump, if, you know, you do dump, is going to be right around $23K. And that is going to be the target. Again, I've said it time and time again, right now just the macro situation just doesn't look too good for me to want to jump fully into a long. But again, I will trade this as long as it doesn't start, you know, just putting in candle body closes towards the downside, especially after sweeping buy side liquidity. If it doesn't do that, right, if Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, like it still, you know, sort of continues edging upwards, That's going to be the target. And all of my trades, you know, on an intraday basis, I'm just going to be taking longs and riding the wave all the way up. But again, if you do get— you start getting changes of character down on your lower time frame, you start getting— you start putting in bearish market structure on your lower time frame, that's a sign that you need to be careful. And the target for that in that case is going to be $26,000 first. Once you take that out, you might expect a little bit of a retrace, or maybe you might take out $25K, right? Take out 25K, expect a little bit of a retrace. Again, draw the fib. This is where you're going to be able to get into the entry before the extremely large move down to 23K. I know that there is going to be a lot of doing nothing in between all this time, and honestly, you should, because as a trader, you don't get paid based on how many trades you take. That's a common misconception that we have as normal functioning humans in society. The more we work, the more hours we We put in the more we get paid, right? Not necessarily in trading. In fact, it's usually never the case because in trading, unless you have a 100% win rate, would you agree every single trade that you take is just exposing yourself to more risk? And let's just say that's never worth it. It's called overtrading, and it's a very common reason why people blow up their accounts. Now, I know this has been a pretty long-winded explanation on what's going to happen to Bitcoin, but you know, the situation is confusing at the moment. I hope you guys appreciate the explanation. I hope it wasn't too confusing, and if it is. Feel free to shoot a comment down below on asking you know what's up, or even better shoot me a DM on Twitter at underscore the art of crypto. That's where I'm going to be most of the time to answer your DMs. But now that Bitcoin is done, let's move over to Ethereum. So now we look at Ethereum. Now obviously you know but like Ethereum is basically just like Bitcoin at the moment. Just I don't even know right now it's exactly the same kind of price action. So Just pick one. I wouldn't trade both at the same time because right now, if you're trading both assets at the same time, I really don't see a point. And if you are, you might as well just be doubling your risk on, you know, Bitcoin or Ethereum because that's exactly what you're doing by trading 2 assets with the same exact risk parameters. You're basically just taking on double the risk because you're trading the exact same asset with double the risk. I don't know if that makes sense, but let's just say focus on one. But for the Ethereum Axies out here and you want to trade Ethereum, It basically is the exact same story. The range low in Ethereum's case is a little bit less well-defined just because, you know, you don't have as clean price action. But you have taken out the range low right now, you have taken out the range high. And if you go on to the monthly open, uh, in this case the monthly open is right here at $1,670. In fact, I should probably add this onto my chart. And to those of you who've watched until this point so far, the indicator that I use Like one of the most is this one right here, Spaceman BTC Key Levels. Highly, highly recommend this indicator. These monthly, weekly open, you know, whatever levels plays a huge part in trading, especially when it's being done on an intraday basis. I would go so far as to say that this tool itself is the only thing I need other than the knowledge that I already have of trading. But yeah, you know, otherwise, uh, the monthly open In this case is $1,670. So right now price is trading just a little bit above $1,670. In fact, if— in fact, it seems to be dumping. Oh, okay, yeah, it's already dumping. You know, let's look at last month, right? Let's look at August. Let's look at August and July. They were pretty bearish months. Now let's see how they started off, right? And let's see when the dump began. So July started off here, right? That's the monthly open. And for the first, you know, couple of weeks, it actually traded beneath the monthly open. So if you were bullish, right, you would look to buy below the monthly open and take profit above the monthly open. That's how the Power of 3 works. But if you were bearish in this case, which should be all of you who are watching my channel because that's when I was calling, you know, the fact that Bitcoin was going to dump and, you know, Ethereum is going to dump as well, then you look to sell above the monthly open. And you get that opportunity exactly 2 weeks into the month where you spend like a couple Like about 3 to 4 days, maybe 5 days above the monthly open. And that leads to the wick that you see on the monthly candle right here. By the way, this concept that I'm teaching you is like super valuable to your trading. Like if you just apply this single concept and if you truly understand this single concept here, you'll make a ton more money. So right here, that wick above, it happens for like 3 to 4 days where price trades above the monthly open and then expands downwards. I know it doesn't look like a lot on the monthly candle, But July wasn't even near the month where it moved a lot. Let's look at August because that's the month where Ethereum really dumped hard. So if you look at August, we opened the month right here. Let's see, the daily open was at $1,856. So we opened the month at around this line here, and we literally spent just 1, 2, 3, maybe 4 days above the monthly open. And that was all that's needed to form this wick here in order for the rest of the month to just expand downwards. So this is Power of the power of 3. At the moment, you could argue that you already have formed a fair value gap or something like that. And if you draw a fib on, you know, that fair value gap right now, well, you haven't quite touched it. But again, uh, if you put all the, you know, narratives in place and you put all the, you know, just pieces of knowledge and pieces of information in place, it wouldn't be hard to theorize that this could be a power of 3 play where, you know, you look to sell above the monthly open. But again, That only is going to be the case if Ethereum and Bitcoin starts putting in like candle body closes like strongly to the downside. And if it starts slowly edging upwards over this week, right, this week, if it starts slowly edging upwards and latest by next week, that's all you want to see. Then the target for Ethereum is going to be the exact same as Bitcoin. Uh, target number 1 is going to be right here at $1,886 or $1,885. Target number 2 is going to be at the previous quarterly high, which is at about You have $2,000, $2,020, and then of course, uh, the ultimate target for Ethereum, which we have been talking about, which is rather similar to Bitcoin, is going to be at about $2,500. Otherwise, the bearish target in this case for Ethereum— now if we were to extrapolate this range and put it down to a -0.5, it just simply goes back to my midterm bear target, which is at $1,428. So definitely look out for that. And yeah, that's all you need to know. Remember, Right now, this video is giving you the higher timeframe bias. It's not my job to tell you exactly what entry you should take on a day-by-day basis. In fact, it wouldn't be beneficial for you as well, just because, you know, as a trader, you sort of wanna develop your own skills and develop your own, you know, beliefs and your own system. But it does help every now and again to get an idea of what a higher timeframe bias is from somebody else who knows what he's doing. But otherwise, right now it is a new month and last month we took on a total of 8 clients for Trading Ascension, which is my mastermind program. And this month we're trying something new, and we've made it easy for you to get started for as little as $375. Now, a lot of the concepts that I talked about in this video, I actually teach completely for free in my free course, which is called Trading Accelerator. Now, in order to maintain the quality, I do control the quantity. So in this month, we're going to be doing another intake, and if you want to learn literally all of these concepts for absolutely free, Sign up to the waitlist down below and I'll see you there. And lastly, before we end this video, I promised you guys that I would talk about Solana even though it's already a 25-minute video, but let's get it done. So Solana at the moment, 2 targets. First one's going to be at $25.6. That is the bullish target, I believe. At the very minimum, it's going to aim for at least like $25.2 or like $25.3, which in this case, why not go for $25.6? That's going to be the target for Solana. On the bullish side, and Solana looks a lot more convincing than you know Bitcoin and Ethereum just because of how big of a wick that it's already put in. Like sure, it might still expand you know all the way back to the downside, but that's where the analysis comes into play. So let's look at the buy side liquidity, or rather the sell side liquidity. Has the sell side liquidity been taken out? You know now that I'm talking about 25.6, I am suddenly reminded that I believe I made a video on Solana like. Month and a half ago, or maybe 2 months ago, saying that I want a short above this level, and we never really got it. We just dumped straight down. I mean, the direction was correct, but the area where I was looking to short, we didn't quite get that. At the moment, we are like— we are returning back to that area, so it could be an opportunity for you to look for a short once you clear that area. Now, that's going to be area number 1. Like, this is going to be the short-term bull target. Basically, I don't expect Solana to slow down until it hits this area. So you can make use of that knowledge as well by framing your intraday trades for the next couple of days or even for the rest of this week towards the upside, where, you know, you long until you get to this area, right? Intraday trades only. And then once you get to this area, right, you look for lower time frame, you know, market structure shifts towards the downside, stuff that would validate your bearish idea that, you know, Solana is going to start going lower, especially because it's just swept like high time frame liquidity. And if that happens, then of course you jump into your intraday short trades, or even you just take a short trade swing trade from there all the way down to like $15 or even $14. And some of you immediately might be wondering, like, is that possible? Hey, if Bitcoin starts going back to $23,000, I bet you that the altcoins are going to dump pretty heavily as well. So in this case, again, the, uh, target for Solana is going to be right here at minimum, right? Minimum, at the very minimum, right? Bearish target. I want you to imagine that Solana at the moment is trading between this range high and this range low. What happens when range highs get taken? Well, obviously you return back to range lows. So this is going to be target number 1 at 17.3, no lower. The only place where I would consider taking partial profits is going to be at 18.8, but again, that, uh, that's up to you. But otherwise, um, if Solana does continue going up, for example, once you take out this level and the market shows no sign of stopping down, just like how— just like what TRB did, then obviously you're going to aim for the previous quarterly high. That's going to be at $32. And if I were to extrapolate this range up to the next level, right, where is this range going to expand to, right? I want you to imagine that first you expanded this range, right? This is your first impulse. And then this entire move here for the past, you know, 3 months or something— let's see here, 2 months, sorry— for the last 2 months, this has just been a retracement into where? Now, if I draw a fib from this low to this high here, look at where the price came back to. It came back into the 705. This is a beautiful little area. If the range were to expand, where could we extrapolate this to? Well, at the moment the chart says $40. For me, I would say at least I, I would play it a little bit more safe and I would take profit at $38.7. So roughly that is going to be the area you aim for during the range expansion. Is that going to happen? I don't really know. My style is, again, and I hope you can understand from the nature of my videos now, is that I aim to give you preparation. I aim to give you a plan for, you know, whatever may happen. And if they happen, then you know exactly what to do. And yeah, it's just a game of reading what the markets are telling you and acting on it subjectively and not imposing your personal bias and beliefs on what the market is trying to tell you. And hey, if you've learned something new in this video or if you found this video helpful at all, subscribing and liking on this video go a long way to letting me know. If I am giving value to you guys or not. And until then, I will see you guys in the next market update. Cheers!