UPDATE: They're manipulating you

What's up everyone? Welcome back to another market update. Now, I know it has been a good bit since I've done one of these proper market updates, but that's because I was in Italy for a month traveling around and getting funded. At the moment, I'm pretty close to getting funded, but that's a story for another time. So this week we are going to cover Bitcoin, we're gonna cover Ethereum. Lots have happened over the last month that I wasn't here, and clearly I was wrong about one of my predictions. And clearly the advice to just play the market as it is, like the fact that it was bullish, And just playing it as it's bullish until it switches bearish was clearly the right call because, well, look at what the market has done. But at the moment, we are having a very interesting development on Bitcoin at the moment, and I need to warn you guys about this. So this video, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, we're going to talk about Ethereum, we are going to discuss the interesting economic situation that we have ahead of us for the USD particularly, and then we're going to talk about Solana because it's pretty much the talk of the town. Before I left, I told you guys that breakpoint was incoming and Expect Solana to pump. Well, it has pumped, and now what's next? So without any further ado, let's dive into the video and let's start with Bitcoin. So as you can see on the chart, I have already marked out a couple of interesting boxes, and this is something that I do want to discuss mainly. I want you to look at this last cycle here, right? The market is always in a state of either AMDX or XAMD. As you can see, there are only two templates. That a market can play out. At the moment, what we have on Bitcoin at this very moment is an XAMD. And in the past, we also had XAMD. Now, I didn't, um, I didn't mark it out, but that would be your Xbox. Now, AMD basically just stands for accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. X stands for either reversal or continuation of the distribution. X is a little bit of a special character because it can be both, and so we just call it X. And the reason why the market makers love to use this template so much to deliver price action is because it always gets people caught in the wrong spot. It gets people thinking that the market's going to go down when in fact it is the bottom, as you can see right there. And it gets the people thinking that the market is going to continue to go up with euphoria, like everyone's feeling euphoria here, but in fact this is just a manipulation segment of, you know, price delivery as a whole. And very likely, even if we don't get it within this year, next year is simply going to start out with a distribution to the downside. So let me break down this pattern even more. Now, as if you can notice, I already put in an X over here in the same box that the accumulation is happening, because again, X can stand for a reversal of the distribution, or it could continue the distribution, right? In this case, this was a continuation. In this case, It was a reversal. And the way you want to think about these XAMD cycles is in quarterly cycles. So as you can see at the bottom here, I have 4 boxes particularly, and the first box starts from January to April, second box April to July, and the third box from July up till October. And right now we are in box number 4. And usually the AMDX or the XAMD cycle tends to play out like this, right? The first quarter is always the accumulation range, second quarter is always manipulation, third quarter is always distribution, and fourth quarter is either Reversal or continuation of the distribution. But given what is happening on the price action here, it's very hard to not see the fact that this was the manipulation and this was the distribution. And so we have to change things up a little bit. So we have to start with D here. So basically it'll be like an A, M, D, X, and then A and then M, right? Right now, the fourth quarter of this year is currently a manipulation window, and I'm going to break down these smaller four boxes even more because they are super key to trading. And if you see. Simply understand, you know, quarterly theory. Shout out to Trader Day from Twitter, he's the one who came up with this observation. If you can understand quarterly theory, it's such a huge game changer for your trading. So currently we have already established that we are in an M phase of an AMD pattern, and now we have to look at the higher time frame to see if we have filled in any higher time frame PD arrays. And as you can see, the target that we were looking at from before has already been filled. This is the BTC/CME futures gap from, well, basically a long time ago at this point, 2022 May. And currently we are at the 0.62 of the, you know, the Fibonacci retracement on— in terms of the monthly range. And this is hugely significant because currently we are in a higher time frame premium zone. And you know how the markets like to work. The markets always move from a state of premium in order to deliver it down into the Discount and perhaps even beyond. So currently, the key level thing checks out, right? We've already filled in a key level. The quarterly theory checks out. The fact that this is clearly looking like a manipulation type pattern, like an AMD type pattern, is also checking out. Like a lot of people missed this in the past, but there was a reason why I called this area here as the bottom back then, and why I bought Bitcoin all the way up here. Now mind you, now I will be honest with you. I did sell all of my Bitcoin at. like as it started coming down because I also called the dump from this point onwards. Given the fact that it was AMDX, I was sort of expecting, you know, the next cycle to really like go downwards. But, you know, clearly the market maker has different plans and hence why we're getting the M phase here. But now that it's here, we don't wanna be missing this. So if you haven't taken profit on your Bitcoin already, I would try to do so over the upcoming week. And this brings me onto my second point, which is the fact that if every year can be broken down into 4 quarters of accumulation, distribution, manipulation, distribution, and a reversal, then the every month can also be broken down into 4 weeks of accumulation, manipulation, distribution, and X. And currently we are in our first week of November, and currently you can see that price is actually just accumulating. So I wouldn't be surprised to see that starting this week, all right, this week is the second week of November, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that, you know, this week Or next week, right? Because according to the indicator right here, the second week of November is actually starting, you know, next week, next Monday, 13th of November. So within the next couple of weeks, I do expect to see price do a false move higher in order to wipe out any early shorters that have already set their stop loss to break even or just move their stop loss above here. And also remember that the market likes to move in 3 phases. I believe I've already made a video about this, which you can check out right after this video. It's a hidden mechanism that the market makers love to use to move price, and basically a mechanism that the market makers love to use to move the market is called the 3-push pattern. Now, most of the movements in the markets happen in 3 phases, and one of the telltale signs that manipulation is going on is that you get a 3-push pattern, right? Um, to traditional retail traders, this might be called a 3-drives pattern, especially once you have broken out of a previous, you know, range level. In this case, this is the level that we're looking at. So you broke out of here, and right now we're looking for 3— 1, 2, 3 pushes up before a Big engulfment downwards, retracement, and coming down. Now, something else that can also happen is scenario two, which is basically price just goes into consolidation. Now, this Bitcoin move should not have taken as long as it did to play out, right? It basically took two months to double. Now, the price action in literally every other market tends to happen much quicker because there's so much more liquidity. Crypto, especially this year, has been lacking a little bit of liquidity, so they've been taking a lot more time to build up their moves, to engineer the liquidity before they get enough fuel. To, you know, just exploit the markets. So I also wouldn't be surprised if we see the next couple of months just turn into an extended consolidation around this area between, you know, $33,000 to about $37,000 before the range expansion heading into next year. Now, if that ends up being the case, then next year probably wouldn't even be a range expansion just because of the fact that the halving of Bitcoin is coming in roughly 6 months. And in a period of 6 months, you would only have enough time to, you know, maybe do a liquidity sweep on these relatively equal lows here. So the D would probably end here before Bitcoin halving happens, and then we get an explosive move towards the upside, right? That is a possibility. But for now, what you need to understand is that there are only 2 things that can happen moving forward. One is we already got the first push up. This is the second push. So within the next couple of weeks, I expect to see the third push. And if after the third push you see a daily engulfment, right, a daily displacement, basically a strong movement towards the downside before a retracement into some kind of fair value gap or some kind of order block, that is your signal to go short. on Bitcoin, especially if you see that and you haven't taken profit on any of your Bitcoin, you know, spot, you might want to consider doing so because, well, the AMD is just basically something that happens like clockwork in every single market, and it is undeniably one of the market makers' favorite, you know, just templates to deliver price in at the moment. It is hard to doubt this. And so that is my sincere advice to you guys. There is a lot more that I can get into just on price action alone simply because I haven't done a video in quite a while, but I do want to talk about one other thing before we cap off this analysis on Bitcoin, which is we want to look at the US dollar seasonality index. So if you can see here in the month of November, right, this is based on 20 years of data. In the month of November, the DXY tends to, you know, close higher, right? The US dollar tends to be quite strong in the month of November. So coming back to the DXY, we can see that at the moment we're starting off the month with a Pullback, right? Or with a downwards sweep. Now this is known as a sell-side liquidity sweep. This is setting the opening range, and at the moment it's probably targeting this level or this level, whatever. This is a retracement in an otherwise overall uptrend, right? Now this could also be a failed breakout. Now this was the bull target that I had set beforehand that, you know, clearly got broken above. And at the moment, price— like, volume is getting trapped up above this level. And so this could easily turn into a failed breakout. But if we follow the 20-year US dollar seasonality index, the US dollar tends to go up, right? This is something that applies much more to forex than crypto, but the DXY is a direct correlator to Bitcoin. And so it helps a lot to study the US dollar index. So assuming that we have 2 possibilities that the US dollar plays out over the course of this month, one is that this initial is just like a sweep in order to fill in some sell-side liquidity, such as that fair value gap over there. And also that further gap over there. So if you fill in either one of these levels and you start, you know, showing indications that you want to go back to the upside, then the seasonality index is definitely correct. Now, when the US dollar index goes up, Bitcoin tends to go down. So that also adds another layer of confluence into our analysis. And the ultimate target is going to be this further gap over here between, you know, $108,000 and about $109,500. $108,500 to $109,500, that's the target I'm looking for before the end of this year, before, you know, ultimately something else happens. About the second scenario, which is a little bit more unlikely but is still, you know, in the realm of probability is that this is a failed breakout, right? The fact that the market makers have ranged the DXY above a previous breakout level gives the indication that they are trapping volume up here, making people think that the DXY is continuing to go higher before showing them the death candle. And once the death candle— everyone above here that went long is now trapped, and now they have nowhere else to go, and the market is just going to aggressively expand towards the downside, probably heading into the range lows. And if that happens, then, well, Bitcoin is just going to take Absolutely the F off, and you know while that possibility is a little bit more unlikely, it is still within the realm of possibility. So just keep that in mind. But for now, I'm sticking much more to the AMDX sort of pattern. And let's talk about ETH just real briefly because if Bitcoin decides to dump from here on out, then if Bitcoin over the next you know couple of weeks or even within this month starts going down, then that that is the end of altcoin season. What you want to see ideally for altcoins is for Bitcoin to range above this level, right? That second scenario. That I talked about where Bitcoin just ranges, because markets tend to move from periods of high volatility to low volatility. So if you get just a consolidation for Bitcoin, that's upset— like, that's great for altcoins because then it gives them the room they need in order to, you know, just go for big pumps. So for now, if you are looking for longs on, you know, crypto in general, I would focus on altcoins just because money— like, the money flow in crypto always moves from the large caps— sorry, from the Bitcoin to large caps to mid caps and to low caps. So it— and it only starts when Bitcoin starts ranging, right? After Bitcoin goes through an expansion and it starts ranging, that's when the altcoins start to move. So ideally, that's what we want to see for altcoins. And in the case of Ethereum, the, um, one of the higher timeframe targets has already been hit. And at the moment, you only really have 2 more, which is right here at $2K and another one at $2.1K. So That's an easy target for Ethereum. Just basically momentum trade it until you get the— until basically Bitcoin starts to reverse and Ethereum, you should see the same. And you know how in the past few months I always say, like, if you want to focus, if you want to take a short trade, it's much better to short altcoins because altcoins were performing much, much weaker than Bitcoin. Well, currently altcoins are performing much, much stronger than Bitcoin in comparison. For example, the Coindex Market Index, which includes over 100 cryptocurrencies weighed by market cap, outperformed Bitcoin and ETH with a 3.2% 2% gain, indicating the leadership of altcoins. And I'm sure you guys have seen a similar type of performance across the board on altcoins, especially on coins like Solana, on coins like Litecoin, MOOVA, you know, you name it, right? Pretty much every coin is pumping. So if you want to focus on longs, go for altcoins. And if you want to focus on shorts, well, let's, um, let's not try to position yourself in the shorts too early because clearly everything is still on an uptrend. So trade with the trend. Remember, Bitcoin, we expect a manipulation phase to happen anywhere between this week and next week. So market will still go up until that happens, and when it happens, well, then you can fully flip short and it will not be too late. And talking about Solana, we have to discuss Solana, and I will use the same type of analysis that I used for Bitcoin and apply it to Solana. And you know, before we even get to Solana, you know how in the last video I made before we went to Italy, I told you guys that Solana At breakpoint, the event like the Solana event called breakpoint always causes Solana to pump. If you guys actually listen to my advice, well, you'd be up about 2x at the moment even without, you know, catching the top. If you have made some money off of that Solana move, feel free to let me know in the comment section below. But otherwise, let's discuss what is going to happen to Solana next. Well, first things first, we identify the higher time frame range. The fact that Solana is trading between this high and this low at the moment And then we look at the AMD cycle where that is your A, you know, that is your A, and then that is your M happening exactly right in Q2 of this year. You have distribution where, you know, it went up, did a little pullback before X, right? The 4th quarter continues the move of the distribution. Now we are halfway through the, you know, the 4th and final quarter. So is Solana going to continue to move or is it going to start reversing? Now if we look at time and price specifically and we line everything up with what that we have already analyzed on Bitcoin. The fact that breakpoint is already over and there does not seem to be much more major news for Solana, and the fact that SBF has been arrested and FTX used to be like a pretty big proponent of Solana and a pretty big factor on behind why Solana was doing so well— given that all of these factors combined together, I would say the probabilities are tipping slightly to the favor that Solana is going to reverse for the rest of Q4. But, um, You know, we have yet— like, we will know in the next couple of weeks. Again, we're about to start Q1 of the monthly cycle. So in the month of November alone, we will start Q1 soon. Um, in fact, today is the first day of Q1. So we just want to see how the first week, you know, opens up. Of course, if we get a range and then Q2 opens up by manipulating the highs, then you know that this is the A, M, and potentially D and even X. So right now, that is how Solana is going to set up in a bearish scenario. In a bullish scenario is that you get you know an opening range, you form you know some lows. Second quarter, you sweep the lows, you fill in some further gaps or whatever. Ideally, some further gaps from lower down here, and then you know you take off and you create new highs. That is your distribution phase, and then you get Q4, which is either you know continuation or reversal. Could be either, but either way, Solana at the moment has tapped a very significant level, which is right here at 46.6. Now there is a possibility, and I am kind of expecting Solana to retap this level, or at least. Come somewhere close to there before dumping. But at the moment, um, let's just say that I don't have super high hopes for Solana, you know, going to say $75, for example. But if Solana does continue to go up for the rest of Q4, then an immediate target would be $60. I don't expect $75 to get hit, but if it gets hit, that is like the ultimate target. Like, you do not want to be holding your Solana beyond $75. You really want to take some profit. I know Some people think that you know there's a big rally going on, but with the situation with Bitcoin, with the situation with the DXY, with the situation with altcoins in general, and adding everything up with time and price, honestly, the probability that Solana will start to tank from this point here is much higher than the scenario where Solana continues to pump. And just before I end this analysis, I almost forgot about one last thing, which is again we observe that the market has made three pushes up, right? Three impulse moves. So this is where the move started. That's impulse. Impulse number one, that's impulse number two, and right now we are getting impulse number three. And impulse number three just happens to wipe out a very significant higher time frame liquidity level. And at the moment, the market— well, if the market starts, you know, forming lower lows, displacing lower, and then retracing back into order blocks and fair value gaps and forming new lows, you're going to want to respect that, and you're going to want to start taking shorts. Let's just put it that way. And final thing to add confluence to, you know, this theory is the fact that If you start looking at the first area, right, when Solana started pumping after this extended— like, this extended, like, big downtrend— this is the moment where Solana's pump began. And if you go back to that pump and you draw a range extension, right, this is a -1 range extension, then you can see that— and basically a range expansion simply means that I draw a box, this is the range, and I extend this range by 1. Right? That's standard deviation. The markets always love to move in boxes of standard deviation. You will notice that markets always, when it goes for a range expansion, either goes for a negative zero point five or a negative one, or in some cases a negative two, negative three, negative four sometimes in forex. Well, you don't get four a lot, but if you do get it, well, consider yourself lucky. Anyways, right now in the higher time frame, we also have one last bit of confluence, which is. This is a negative 1 extension. Now, given— again, if price were to continue pumping, $60 is what I would personally be looking for because that will also line up with around negative 1.5. That will be over here roughly. Take that level out, also a significant liquidity level with a fair value gap over here. And yeah, if you take that out, that's going to be the top. But at the moment, just looking at the probabilities alone, not too likely. And if you start seeing displacement over the next few days to the downside You're going to want to wait for a retracement back into fair value gaps, back into order blocks, or whatever. Especially if you get— if you happen to get liquidity sweeps first, right? You sweep that liquidity, for example, displaced lower. This is going to be your ideal entry, which is boom. Like, just write that all the way down and you are going to be Gucci. So, um, this video has been slightly longer. Hopefully you have learned a thing or two, and hopefully you are now prepared for what is about to come. I will be doing another intake of Trading Accelerator very, very soon. It's basically my free training course, which Has been getting insane results. Honestly, wasn't even expecting that type of insane results. But if you guys are interested to join the group, there is a waitlist and we are only letting a very limited amount of people in. So if you don't want to miss out on this intake, make sure you sign up to the waitlist using the link in the description box below. And if you're already on the waitlist, I want you to look out for a particular email announcing another intake of Trading Accelerator, and I want you to reply to that email if you are truly, truly interested and can. cannot wait to join Trading Accelerator. But otherwise, with that said, I hope you enjoyed this video, and I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye!