In this market‑update video, The Art of Crypto provides a concise technical and macro‑fundamental analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum, outlines short‑term trade ideas, and previews upcoming alt‑coin coverage. The presenter begins by noting a recent sell‑side liquidity sweep at Bitcoin’s $25,100 range low and explains why this does not yet signal a bullish reversal, citing the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. He discusses the inverse correlation between DXY and Bitcoin, and projects that continued dollar strength will keep risk assets, including crypto, under pressure. The video then shifts to a longer‑term perspective, highlighting the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and the historical pattern of a bottom forming 1‑2 months before a halving, suggesting a potential capitulation phase in early 2024. The core of the analysis is a step‑by‑step trade plan. For Bitcoin, two key levels are identified: a daily liquidity/resistance zone around $27,750‑$28,100 (potential short‑entry trigger) and a downside target at $24,250 with further extensions toward $20k if the daily/weekly close falls below $25k. The presenter stresses waiting for lower‑timeframe confirmation (change of character, displacement) before entering. For Ethereum, similar mechanics are applied: buy‑side liquidity above $1,670, short‑entry around $1,750, TP1 at $1,522 and TP2 at $1,425, with the note that ETH is currently weaker than Bitcoin and would likely under‑perform in a market dip. The video concludes with a call‑to‑action for viewers to suggest alt‑coins (Solana, AVAX, EGLD) via Twitter, and the presenter promises future chart‑walks of those assets. The overall tone is informal, instructional, and cautiously bearish, with occasional optimism about potential short‑term rebounds but a clear emphasis on risk management and macro constraints.
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What's up everyone, welcome back to another market update video. Now I'm down with a pretty bad headache the whole day today, so not going to keep this way too long. I'll just give you the general rundown on what's changed since last week because we were predicting Bitcoin to come down to this area in this area. You know, we did indeed sweep some kind of sell-side liquidity back at the range lows at $25,100. Now if you would have went long here, that would have been perfect. But before we get into this, we're gonna talk about Bitcoin, we're going to talk about Ethereum, and then later this week I'm going to talk about some altcoins that were suggested to me, of them in The coins in particular are Solana, AVAX, and EGLD. But if you have any coins that you'd like to see being charted, feel free to go on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto and go drop a comment on this tweet so that your coin can be charted live on a YouTube video. Anyways, going back into the video, at the moment there is only one level that we need to pay attention to. At the moment, this is the situation. So if you look at price action on Bitcoin so far, you can see that most of the price has been Revolving between these 2 levels where you have a range low and you have range high, right? You return back to the range high, and after you take the liquidity there, you go back to the range low. Hence, the reason why we're seeing this bounce here might not necessarily be because it's returning back to the range high, but maybe it's just sweeping some buy-side liquidity before heading lower. Because at the moment, I still don't really see a reason why Bitcoin would be going straight on to bullish mode, especially if you look at the DXY at the moment. It's still heading towards bull target number 1. Even after sweeping this high, it might not really have a reason to stop until it goes back to, say, the 109, 110 sort of region. And for those of you who don't know, the DXY is inversely correlated to Bitcoin, meaning when the DXY is going up, Bitcoin tends to go down and vice versa, because DXY denotes the strength of the US dollar and Bitcoin is valued against the US dollar. So it would make perfect sense if the US dollar was going up, then obviously Bitcoin has to come down, right? And while it does go deeper than that, That's all you need to know, really. And basically, the upcoming sort of financial policy that the Federal Reserve is going to be putting out is not going to be the most bullish of situations. The reason I say that is because we are sort of expecting rate hikes to continue sometime within the next couple of months. And of course, with that, the DXY is going to go even higher, and stocks plus crypto and any risk assets are continuing to perform, well, not so good. And also, that thing to keep in mind is that we have a Bitcoin halving next year at April 2024. Historically speaking, every crypto bull run gets kickstarted by a halving event. And it's important to also understand the fact that the bottom before every halving event tends to come around 1 to 2 months before the actual halving. So if we follow that timeline, we could expect the bottom to occur sometime before next March. If we draw that timeline out, it wouldn't be surprising for, let's say, the next few months, you know, we do a slow crawl down here, maybe to the beginning of 2024. And then beginning of 2024, you do some Shenanigans, and then you do the capitulation event, and then that's you know February March. That's where you find the bottom, and you know the next bull market kickstarts again. Of course, this is highly dependent on the macro situation, which at the moment isn't looking very good. But either way, you know the narrative sort of lines up that at the moment, like the only thing bullish for Bitcoin at the moment is the fact that you've taken out range low, range high, and also the higher time frame market structure is still intact in the sense that you have that. You get a higher high over there, it's your higher low. You get a higher high at the moment, that's your higher low. And then over here you get another higher high. At the moment, this could just be a retrace, right? This could just be a liquidity sweep. So in this event, like, the bullish market structure is still intact. But the moment you get sort of daily or even weekly candle closes below $25K, that's when bearishness is 100% confirmed. And if that happens, I'd just be shorting Bitcoin all the way down to $20K and Perhaps even lower. So as of the moment, that is the plan for Bitcoin. So let's get into how this is going to affect you on a smaller scale, which means what can you do about it this week? 2 levels to keep in mind. One of them is going to be $27,750-ish. This is a point of daily liquidity and also the previous fair value gap 0.5 resistance where I predicted the top. And if you were to have shorted there, you would have actually caught quite a nice trade worth about $2,500. At the moment, this is going to act as quote-unquote resistance, right? It's not actual resistance, but above this high here you have what is known as buy-side liquidity. Basically, anyone that went short on Bitcoin at any point here would have gotten a free ride down to, you know, this area here. And retail traders being retail traders, they don't like to take profit when profit presents itself. So for the traders that are holding the trade open still will probably have this stop loss above this, you know, swing high or even above this level. So right now, the market makers are sort of just clearing out the liquidity before a potential new low. Now, how does this work? Essentially, all you need to understand is that in sell programs where you're having lower lows and lower highs, any buy-side liquidity sweeps— meaning if you sweep a previous swing high— that is a precedent, right? That is, this sweep will provide the market with enough fuel to form a new low. So possibility number 1 is that you sweep the high and then immediately you form a new low. Just to show you how this looks like on a bullish scenario, a bullish scenario where if you sweep the sell side during and buy program, then that tends to help you form new highs. For example, there is sell-side liquidity at this point, at this point right here. After you sweep it, immediately very aggressive move to form a new high. Same thing here. If we zoom in to the chart at this point, this is actually where I went long. So you have sell-side liquidity over here, it gets swept during this move. The moment it gets swept, boom, you know, you immediately start to form new highs. And once more That is sell-side liquidity over there. The moment you sweep it, this is when things start to fail, and that's when you start getting the retracement, right? So that's a form of confirmation that you can use to determine if the market is still continuing in a downtrend or uptrend. Because if you're still in an uptrend, sell-side liquidity sweep should lead to new highs. And if it fails to do that, well, now you've got a problem on your hands. So following this same theory, we can just look for that here as well, meaning right now our bias is towards the downside. Which means, for example, if you look at this previous high here, the moment it got swept, boom, right? Aggressive expansion towards the downside. I'm going to want to look for this wick to get taken. In fact, if we look at the wick, it's going to be at 28,100. So just going to move— like, this is the general sort of vicinity that you want to look for, you know, this setup to form. Basically something like that, and then boom, right down to, you know, first target is 24,250, which is about roughly like a 15%, 16%, 17% drop from that price over there. Do I mean to just literally short Bitcoin right off the bat? That's not what I mean. What you do is you wait for these two levels to get hit first, and then watch for a reaction in a lower time frame. If the lower time frame also confirms a change of character with displacement, that is your cue to perhaps go short here, targeting that as your TP one and that as your TP two, maybe that as a TP three. Pretty straightforward. On the flip side, you can also start just looking for longs. For example, if you're intraday trader, and right now this is the pre New York open, so. There's literally actually only 5 more minutes until before the pre-New York open kill zone starts up. But if you're an intraday trader, you look for trades probably ideally before Tuesday, this time tomorrow. But yeah, that is the breakdown on Bitcoin. And now let's move over to ETH. Coming back to ETH on the daily chart, same situation there. I would've expected that level to get hit. ETH has been treating us very weirdly recently because I predicted the top for ETH here at $1,748, $1,749-ish. ETH came up to $1,746. So I didn't catch that. Then I predicted a top for ETH, expecting it to retrace back to $1,674 and then, you know, just dumping straight after that. It stopped at $1,669 and then it went down. And then I was predicting the bottom for Ethereum to come at about $1,522. It stopped right above, like at $1,530, and then now it's starting to bounce. So I don't know what's up with ETH. It might be a good idea just to move your entries, TPs, and whatever, just like a few more points. Compared to my analysis, but either way for ETH at the moment similar situation. If we want to maintain the bearish bias, buy side liquidity over here gets swept during this move forms a new low. At the moment, the buy side liquidity exists above 1670. You just want to look for that to get swept ideally before Tuesday, which is tomorrow at around this at around the same time that I'm filming this video. If that gets swept, there should be an easy pretty straightforward short trade, especially if you go into the lower time frames and it confirms you know the bias with. Some change of character, some displacement, whatever. It's gonna be a pretty easy short down to, in this case, our TP1 at 1522 and a TP2 at 1425. It's pretty straightforward. Now alternatively, you can also look like this level might like get hit and then just like gets completely run through. That is also a possibility. Hence I say just look out for the lower timeframe to see if there is confirmation before you jump in. So if there isn't the confirmation and you know it's still running straight through, then the second level you wanna look out for is 1750. Now at the moment, Ethereum for basically the better part of this year has been a lot weaker than Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin goes up by 5%, you might expect Ethereum to go up only maybe 3%. So in this case, this level is definitely going to be a good area where you would look for shorts. Again, if I had the option of shorting either Ethereum or Bitcoin, I would definitely do Ethereum. Ethereum is just so much weaker than Bitcoin at the moment. If Bitcoin dumps by 5%, Ethereum's going down by like 8 to 10. So it's a no-brainer. But the second level I would look at is $1,750. And you know, God forbid, Ethereum goes up to like 1900 this week. I highly doubt that is going to happen, but you know, if it happens, then follow along on my Twitter @TheArtOfCrypto. That's where I'll be posting the latest, you know, just happenings on the market, complete with charts and trade ideas and just good stuff. But until then, I will see you guys in the next video. Take care, bye-bye.
