What The Hedge Funds and Central Banks Are Doing To #BTC Ain't Gonna Be Pretty... #Bitcoin

What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art Of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. In this video we are going to talk about Bitcoin, but more importantly we are going to talk about a little chart that absolutely nobody is talking about, and this will very likely be able to help us determine if crypto is going to be bullish over the next 3 to 6 months, or are we going to be bearish and potentially dump to $20k. So if you're interested to find out about that, you're gonna wanna watch till the end of this video. And I know, I do understand that this is a different kind of video because usually I jump right into the technical analysis of things, and I will still get into that, but I feel like it's really important that I talk about this chart and what it means. Right before I dive right into it, you're gonna wanna follow me on Twitter @TheArtOfCrypto if you haven't already. This is where I'm sharing the latest market updates and you do not wanna miss out. So, Immediately, let's get into this chart. So this is on barchart.com, and this is the US dollar index. Now, the US dollar index, you can simply search, it's called the DXY on TradingView. So basically, what this chart tells us is the strength of the US dollar. So basically, if this chart, right, is going up, that means that the US dollar is increasing in value. And if this chart is going down, means that US dollar is decreasing in value. Now this is important for 2 reasons. Now if there are any, you know, experienced crypto people who are following me or watching this video, you would understand that the US dollar actually correlates a lot to Bitcoin, right? Basically what Bitcoin does is like pretty much inversely correlated to the DXY. If you notice how, you know, during this period, right, when the DXY started to dump, right, basically from this point, as the DXY dumps from here to here, notice what's happening on Bitcoin, right? Take a look on the left, notice what's happening on Bitcoin. Right? As the US dollar loses value, Bitcoin is pumping. And as the US dollar gains value, Bitcoin is dumping, right? If you just take a look there. Now, this is important to understand because Bitcoin is traditionally regarded as a hedge against inflation. So basically, people buy Bitcoin to, you know, hedge against inflation. And what does inflation mean? Well, inflation is when the US dollar purchasing power gets decreased. And Basically, your currency becomes weaker. And if that happens, then obviously you would want to park your money somewhere else that you know won't get that much weaker than what you're currently holding, which is cash. So stuff like gold, stuff like Bitcoin, those are traditionally hedges against inflation. If you take a look again, right, as DXY pumps, look what Bitcoin does, right? It dumps. And then during this massive, like the most recent move that you should understand is that from basically you know from this point on, we started pumping. Right? And look what happened to Bitcoin during this time. Do you see that? And this is important for us to understand because recently the DXY started dumping again, and that's why we're getting this pump in Bitcoin. Like basically, this is what this chart is important for. So if we just take a look down here on this line right here, this COTLC thing is what you call a commit— the commitment of traders. Now if I just check here, right, this red line right here is what you call commercial traders. So these are going to be your central banks, These are going to be your market makers. These are the people who own the markets. These are the people who can control the markets however they like. Basically, these are the big boys that I'm always talking about, the market makers. Over here, large speculators, this is what you call hedge funds and institutions, investment banks, investment bankers, those traders for hedge funds basically. Now these people have enough money to move the markets, but they are still under the control, right? You can't beat the central bank. I hope you understand what I'm trying to get at. So these are the ones who we call the institutions, right? They're able to move the markets, right? They are able to manipulate the markets. But at the end of the day, the big boys, the true big boys, are the central banks. Now this is why this is important. So commitment of traders basically means the— like, if this— like, if it's below zero, right? If it's below zero, this is the zero line. If this shows that the line is below zero, that means that the you know, that, that institution in mind is going short on something, right? Their position is net short. And if the position is above the zero line, that means they are net long. So if you see here, during this entire run-up for the DXY, the hedge funds and institutions and, you know, the investment bankers, they have been going long on DXY. And currently, if you just take a look at, you know, what's happening recently, you can see that the hedge funds and institutions have recently started to go long on the DXY again, and at the same time, the big boys, the market makers, have started going short. So is this a signal that the DXY is about to reverse, right? And if the DXY reverses, I hope you remember what I talked about regarding DXY. If the dollar increases in value, right, Bitcoin isn't going to move as well. And if Bitcoin isn't going to move as well, then, you know, the crypto markets ain't gonna move as well. So this is just something that you want to keep in mind. Now, am I saying this is absolutely like going to happen? Like, is the DXY absolutely going to pump? Not exactly. At the moment, it's still too early to tell. What I am talking about right now probably will take at least a month, at least a month to play out. And even if it's not a month, we would at least need, you know, a week to 2 weeks before we can get an accurate picture of where the market is going to be heading, which means that if the DXY were to continue pumping from here, This would mean that this right here is a massive, massive bull trap, and we should be technically building shorts here. But let me just, you know, dive into a quick little analysis for the DXY. So if you follow, right, again, if you are a longtime follower of this channel, you know that I like to do an institutional style of technical analysis. And right here is what you call an order block, basically an untapped area of liquidity. This is an area where institutions like to push the price to. So if If you just take a look here right now, we are trying to hold this order block as support right now. The institutions have pushed the price of DXY down here, and rather than institutions— rather than institutions, actually, it would be more suitable for us to say the market makers, because right now we're looking at, you know, a traditional fiat currency, and this is the playground that the central banks like to play with. And before I continue any further, if you feel like you've learned a thing or two in this video, it would help me so much if you could just like the video and share it to whoever you might think could use the information. It's a small gesture, but it really helps me a lot. So at the moment, if we do find support on this bullish order block right here, it's not going to be pretty for Bitcoin. Because if we do find support here, right, if I just want you to imagine, visualize the markets in terms of swing highs and swing lows. So over here we had, you know, formed high, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows. And then we broke market structure here, right, during this move. And then we started forming a higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, right? And then here we broke market structure again into a bearish state. But however, recently we have just broke market structure towards the upside because we broke through this high here, and now we have formed a higher low, higher high. And that means if DXY were to hold this as support right now, it's going to form a higher low, which means if that happens, then we are in a bullish order flow. And if that happens, you are going to want to keep the like you're going to want to mark down this level at 93.4-ish as a very key level to watch. Because if DXY does break above this level at 93.5 or 93.4, I do expect all these previous highs to get attacked some, some way or another, right? And if this happens, right, if DXY were to go and attack all these previous highs, it is going to take at least a few months to play out, maybe a year, right, of, you know, the DXY simply being in an uptrend and crypto going into a bear market. Now, if you don't believe what I mean, right, just go back in time, right, to let's say, uh, March, April of 2018. Scroll back in history, right? April of 2018. Let's see, when is that? So April of 2018, right? When was this? Uh, 20th of April to be precise, right? Notice how during this entire time when the DXY was pumping, right, notice what happens to crypto, right? This is what you call a bear market. And if the DXY is going to come up and attack all of these previous highs, it is not going to be pretty for Bitcoin. However, there is a lot of different you know factors that you have to consider when discussing something like this on a macroeconomic scale. For example, the Consumer Price Index. I'm sure if you guys don't know what that is, I would encourage you guys to read up a little bit on inflation. But at the moment, if you've watched any of Jerome Powell's If you've watched any of the recent Federal Reserve economic reports, then they are, you know, it's kind of bleak, right, in terms of inflation. There's been a lot of reports that say that even though the CPI, or rather the Fed, the US Federal Reserve, even though they report that, you know, the inflation is only about, I don't know, 2.4%, 4.5%-ish, the real number actually is hovering about like 5.5% to maybe 7.5%. Now, I don't know the validity of this, so I'm not going to, like, don't quote me on this, But if that really is the case, then that means that the US dollar is about to lose even more value. And if that happens, right, that will be a good thing for crypto because then Bitcoin's going to go through an absolutely massive pump and all the other altcoins are going to follow. So for now, DXY, you're going to want to pay attention to these levels. And keep in mind, right, this is not just about technical analysis anymore. What you must understand is that this is a macroeconomic kind of analysis, right? I'm not going to get into it in this video right here Because there's honestly, if I do get into it, I'm gonna be spending like half an hour just talking about this. So if you want to hear me talk about it though, you could actually consider joining the private Discord group. Today is going to be the last day for you to sign up if you want to get in on a monthly subscription. I'm going to be closing this for at least 3 to 4 weeks after today, and on the next time you are actually going to see a price hike from that point on. So you have been warned for anyone who who is still, you know, on the sidelines thinking about whether or not to get in. Again, I'm probably going to be raising prices the next time this opens, so just be aware of that. Over in the Discord channel, by the way, you are going to get access to daily profitable trading setups. And most importantly, you're going to be able to— like, if you're just confused about what the market is doing, you don't know what you're doing, and you just want somebody to guide you, at least tell you what is likely to happen to the market next, then this is going to be the place for you. And you You know, if you're serious about doing trading or this crypto thing for a career, then most importantly, you're gonna get access to a world-class trading education in here. Basically, if you watch any of my videos and you think like, hey, how am I right so much of the time? And if you wanna learn how to do the things that I do, then over here, I'm literally laying down everything that I know so that you guys can be successful. Again, today's the last day, so get in while you can. And, you know, just to show you this thing works, right? Everyone's making money every single day. There's multiple people in here who have already paid off their memberships, and just trust me, it's gonna pay off real quick. So anyways, here is the other piece of information that I do want to share with you, and that is the US Treasury note bond yields. Now I know this is very different from my usual style of video, but you just need to know this, okay? Notice how, right, if we mark down this, this level here, right, um, April, April the 8th, right? April the 8th, the US Treasury bond yields started to go up, okay, until about June 10th. So let's see what happens on April the 8th, right? April the 8th starts dumping until June-ish. And this is important to understand because, you know, again, US Treasury bond yields is directly correlated to the DXY, and the DXY is directly correlated to Bitcoin. So everything is sort of connected. So at the moment You can see that when the Treasury yields are pumping, the DXY will dump, right? So we also want to pay attention to the US 10-year Treasury yield. So this would be something like this, which means that we also want to pay attention to the US 10-year Treasury yield in order to keep track of stuff. And at the moment, you can see that, you know, again, as it's pumping, as it's pumping, the DXY will lose value. At the moment, you can see that we are forming, you know, high high, high low, high high, high low, high high, high low, high high, high low, high high. And at the moment, we have formed a high high. Now, for the US Treasury note to continue to be bullish, it needs to break above this level at 135. And if it does break above 135, I will be very hopeful for crypto being bullish over the next 3 to 6 months. So I want you to keep in mind, right? Keep this chart in mind, right? Keep this level in mind. You're gonna wanna mark this down, okay? Because as this continues to go up, DXY is gonna lose value, and which means Bitcoin is gonna continue to pump. However, if this decides to take a dump right now, if this forms a lower high and then it breaks below this low at 133.283, then this is going to be very, very ugly for the crypto markets. Because as US Treasury note bond yields is going down, DXY will go up. And if DXY goes up, then, you know, Bitcoin is going to dump. That's right. If Bitcoin dumps, everything dumps. So seriously, keep these two levels in mind. Hopefully, we see you know if we continue to be bullish, right? Then similar to the DXY, we expect all of these previous highs to get attacked. As for how long it's going to take to get accomplish this, probably a year at least. So for the sake of the crypto markets, we do want to see these highs get attacked. But for now, it's a bit too early to tell. So we'll have to wait and see. Just remember to keep those two levels in mind. So now, now. Finally, we can get into a Bitcoin analysis, right? And I know that was a bit long-winded maybe, but it's just some information that I figured that you should understand. So Bitcoin, there is not much to be said actually because we have currently just 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 daily candle closes, right? On Coinbase, on the Coinbase chart, we have currently like see here 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 10, right? Technically we have 10 straight daily candles that have already been green, and historically we have never gotten more than 10 days without some sort of pullback. And you know, forget pullbacks, right? I always talk about institutional ways of trading, and look at how many order blocks that we left behind during this massive run-up. And you know, just to mark down a few, right, these are like 3 order blocks that have not been tested. And if you want a clearer, like, you If you want a more in-depth analysis, you're going to want to watch the video that I posted yesterday. Those I'm going to give you the exact levels for where to buy Bitcoin, and the stuff that I said yesterday is still very valid today. So I'm not going to bore you guys to explain this again. But the simple update to that would be you're going to want to look for this trend line to get broken right on the four hourly chart. Notice, remember, right? I talked about higher highs and higher lows, right? High high, high low, high high, high low, high high. And in order for Bitcoin, I. For real, Bitcoin should, right? The chances are that we go for a retracement, right? Just a little pullback, maybe to 36K, maybe to 40K, but just a tiny little pullback, right? Right now, Bitcoin, the trend for Bitcoin is bullish. So try to buy the pullbacks. If you want like really like the best levels, then you're gonna wanna watch the video from yesterday. But otherwise, just, you know, just buy the pullbacks on, you know, support and resistance, right? Just get some here, get some here, you know, maybe get some here. It doesn't even matter what price you buy Bitcoin at as long as you dollar cost average. Basically, the lower the price goes, the more you buy. So maybe if you had $1,000 to play with, assuming that, you know, let's say we're buying from these 3 levels, right, it's just random levels. Assuming that you buy on 6 levels, right, maybe you have, I don't know, um, $10,000 to play with. Maybe you buy $1,000 here, and then the lower it goes, maybe you buy another $1,000 here, $2,000 here, maybe another $2,000 here, and then You buy maybe 3,000 here, 4,000 here. You get the point, right? The lower the price goes, the bigger your position becomes. And doing so will ensure that you have the, you know, a very ideal position. Nobody, because you do this because nobody knows where's the exact bottom. And what if, right, maybe let's say I say, oh, buy Bitcoin at $27K. But what if Bitcoin doesn't get to $27K? Maybe it comes down here and it bounces, right? You don't know what could happen, which is why you dollar cost average. So in terms of the, you know, the technical analysis side of things, the levels remain the same. You're just going to want to watch the video that I posted from yesterday. Right now though, I'm going to get into some more interesting information in regards to, you know, the current state of the market. What are the whales doing, basically? Like, what are the Bitcoin whales doing? So if you just take a look at this chart, right, this is from Glassnode. Ever since that massive Bitcoin dump back in, you know, May or June You can see that over here, the strong hands, right? Strong hands are basically, you know, experienced investors, people who have been holding Bitcoin for very long, people who have been investing in Bitcoin for a very long time, and they are the ones who are buying, right? These are the whales. The whales have been buying very hard throughout the entire dump, right? Throughout this entire consolidation that we have here, whales have been buying aggressively. But this chart here talks about Bitcoin moving to strong hands. That means if it has to move the strong hands, that means that people are selling, right? And the people who are selling are the weak hands, right? The newer investors. So I always like to say, you know, follow the smart money, right? Right now the smart money is buying and they're buying hard. So could this be a sign that they are expecting Bitcoin to go and retest, to attack all the previous highs up here? Now similar to the DXY as well as the US Treasury bond yields, if something were to remain bullish, then you expect it to attack all of the previous highs. Now again, the profit levels that I, that I'm marking down here, it's still valid, right? The ones that I discussed in yesterday's video, still very valid. So please go watch that video after you're done here because I'm not going to explain it twice. So that was the showing that whales have been buying, right? We follow the smart money until, you know, things change. If the whales start to sell, then, you know, maybe we start to sell as well. And the other important thing that I want you to like take a look at is the miners, right? What are the miners doing? Historically, there have been people who say, you know, miners are the best Bitcoin traders because, you know, they're really in tune with the stuff that they're mining. And oftentimes, if miners are selling, that's a really good sign that you should get out of the market, right? Follow the smart money. And as you can see, even the miners, right, during this entire time, they have been buying hard. So it just goes to show that this pump in hindsight was inevitable. But the key that I want you to understand For the first time in a very long while, we have been trading in, you know, people have been taking profits here. So will the trend reverse? You know, I would think so, right? You don't go 10 days just up, up, up, up without any sort of significant pullback. Now, am I saying Bitcoin is going to absolutely dump to zero? No. But I'm just saying, you know, if you do get pullbacks, could be 5%, it could be 10%, it could be however many percent. Right now, the trend is bullish, right? Not just on the 4-hourly. The only thing that changed from yesterday to today is that on the daily chart, right? Previously, I was talking about how this level needed to be broken in order for us to be bullish on the daily chart, right? This level at 41,300-ish, 41,400. And you can see that we have already broken that level. So 100%, we are bullish on Bitcoin right now, and we do expect a higher low formation to form over the next week, maybe 2 weeks, before continuing to move upwards to attack all of these previous highs, assuming that nothing, you know, black swan-y happens to the DXY or happens to the US 10-year Treasury bond yields or whatever, right? That's a, that's a ample— there's a plethora of macroeconomic factors that you should be keeping in mind as a smart trader. So, you know, just keep those in mind. Just remember, right now you're looking for a pullback. And if you notice how in yesterday's video, even though I said that I am expecting a pullback, right, I didn't actually tell you guys to short because, you know, it's risky, right? The order flow has already shifted bullish, and usually in times like this, you don't, you don't, you don't continue to short, right? I always like to say that you only short after you see some distribution patterns going on or a market break of structure, right? That is the time when you short. And if you want a better explanation of that, again, you're going to want to check out the private Discord group over here. You're going to get access to, again, everything that I know about trading, and if you just want to be as accurate as I am, maybe learn to do this for yourself, then today's the last day for you to get in before the prices increase. And well, it's going to be closed for, you know, 3 or 4 weeks. Now if Bitcoin does, you know, break structure over here, maybe break down right below this trend line plus break below the structure at $38K, do you— can you take a short? Yeah, absolutely you can take a short. Am I going to recommend it? No. What I recommend you to do is to buy buy the pullbacks rather than try to short. But again, you know, not financial advice. All of this that I've said is purely my opinion. I am neither a certified financial advisor, nor do I have the qualifications to give you financial advice. Everything here is just my opinion. But I do think that Bitcoin will have a slight little pullback before we continue our run up to $65K. If you watch until this point so far, like, honestly, kudos to you, man. I don't think there would be a lot of people who would spend that kind of time to watch, you know, such a long video. So if you're still here, man, I appreciate you so much. And let me just tell you one thing, you keep this up and, you know, success is— it's gonna come to you, right? You are already ahead of 90% of the people who will rather spend their time watching a reality TV show on Netflix than, you know, be here improving themselves and getting a better understanding of the markets. So if you're still here right now, I want I want you to comment in the comment section, 10%, because, you know, you're just among the 10%. And I, I just want to say I love you, right? Thank you for staying here. I don't take any of you for granted. And yeah, just remember, the Discord group is going to be closed after today, and well, at least the monthly signups. So if you're interested, I'll see you in the private Discord group. For now, may the gains be with you, my friend, and peace.