In this YouTube commentary, Tod Maffin fact‑checks Liberal leader Mark Carney’s pledge to eliminate the GST on first‑time home purchases under $1 million. Maffin explains the existing federal new‑housing GST rebate—a 36 % refund capped at $6,300 that phases out between $350 k and $450 k and disappears above $450 k—highlighting how it has become ineffective as average home prices now exceed $700 k. He adds provincial nuances, using Ontario’s supplemental rebate as an example, and traces the rebate’s origins to the 1991 GST introduction, noting the promised but never‑honored biennial threshold reviews. Maffin contrasts Carney’s proposal (full GST exemption for first‑time buyers under $1 M) with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s plan to extend the exemption to all buyers. A numerical illustration shows a $950 k home would save about $47.5 k under Carney’s plan versus the current $6.3 k cap. The commentary concludes with a broader critique: tax relief is a superficial fix, and real housing affordability requires supply‑side reforms such as expanding trades programs, easing zoning, and reducing approval red tape.
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Earlier today, the Liberal leader Mark Carney said his government would eliminate the GST on homes for first-time buyers. Is this new? A repackaged promise? Or something that already exists? I'm Tod Maffin. Let's fact-check it. Today, Carney posted on Bluesky that if a Liberal government is elected, first-time home buyers won't have to pay the GST on properties valued under $1 million. But there is already a new housing rebate system that offers partial relief from the GST. It's been around for decades, although at this point it's about as useful as a Blockbuster membership card. Because under the current system, home buyers who plan to use a property as their primary residence can get part of the 5% GST paid on new housing back. It also applies incidentally to substantially renovated housing. But what is that part? 36%! Under the current policy, home buyers can get 36% of the GST paid back, but there's a limit of $6,300, so that means you only get the full effectiveness of this on homes valued at less than $350,000, which honestly would be kind of hard to find in the first place. For more expensive homes, that rebate is still there, but it gets smaller. For instance, properties between $350,000 and $450,000, it's gradually reduced on a sliding scale, and then once a property exceeds the $450,000 threshold, you get no rebate at all. You pay the full 5% GST. Now, given that the average home price in Canada now exceeds $700,000, most new home purchases fall outside of the range for any rebate eligibility at all. No wonder the opposition parties say the current policy has become ineffective as housing prices just keep climbing. Provincial variations add another layer of complexity. In Ontario, for example, there's an additional provincial new housing rebate available. Home buyers there pay 2% provincial tax on the first $400,000 of a home and then 8% on the remainder. But unlike the federal rebate, Ontario's can be applied to homes more than $450,000. You might be wondering, how did they settle on such a low number? That's because the existing rebate system is an ancient relic.
The existing sales tax will be replaced by a new sales tax that will apply to a much broader base. The result will be a lower tax rate and a fairer system.
The GST was introduced in 1991 by a Conservative government. And it came with this rider: "The government will review these thresholds at least every 2 years and adjust them as necessary to ensure that they adequately reflect changes in economic conditions and housing markets." The problem is nobody did. That commitment has never been honored. Those numbers have been frozen in time for 33 years. And over time, that's gone from helpful to pointless. In 1991, more than 90% of new houses qualified for the full rebate. By 2008, it was under 45%. This erosion is particularly visible in high-cost markets like Vancouver, where less than 1% of new single-family homes completed in 2008 qualified for the full rebate. That's a huge drop from '91 when more than 75% did. I was going to calculate what it would be today, but honestly, I just got depressed by the whole thing. So back to today's announcement. Mark Carney promised to eliminate the GST on homes entirely. No sliding scale, no percentages, as long as it's your first home and that home is less than $1 million. So while this is technically an adaptation of existing policy, it's really very different. It's basically new. Where does the Conservative Party stand on this? Well, the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says his government would do the same, but it would apply to all buyers, not just first-timers. As for bottom line numbers, on a $950,000 home, this would translate to about $47,500 in tax savings. Remember, under the current tiered systems, you'd max out at $6,300. And look, I think any relief on taxes is great, but at some point, maybe whatever government ends up in power can work on the causes, not the results. Why is the solution always to give away tax dollars? Dollars that frankly our system needs for healthcare and daycare and keeping the CBC alive long enough to air yet another goddamn season of Murdoch Mysteries. Sorry. Can't we focus on making the cost of building houses lower? More trades programs, fewer zoning nightmares, less red tape that makes every new development take a decade to approve. Because right now our housing market is like a game of musical chairs. Too many buyers, not enough homes, and the music stopped playing years ago. Instead of adding more chairs, our governments just keep handing out little cushions in the form of tax breaks, hoping that no one notices that the floor is lava. So yes, tax relief is nice, but you know what would be nicer? If Canadians didn't have to sacrifice their entire financial future just for four walls and a roof.
