The dollar isn’t broken… it’s designed to win!

16 Jan 2026 · 1 min

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In this brief financial commentary, the speaker urges viewers to stop betting against the U.S. dollar, arguing that the currency is structurally designed to appreciate both during economic crises and during periods of strong U.S. growth. He introduces the “smile theory,” a concept first identified by Steven Jen in 2001, which depicts a U-shaped curve: the dollar spikes as a safe‑haven asset when global markets panic, and it also strengthens when the Federal Reserve raises rates during a booming U.S. economy, pulling liquidity from abroad. The only scenario where the dollar could weaken is a rare, synchronized global growth “boring middle,” which the speaker claims we are not currently experiencing due to high debt levels and geopolitical conflict. He concludes by directing viewers to a link for a deeper dive.

Chapters

Stop betting against the dollar. The system is mathematically designed to make the dollar go up if the economy is booming or if the world is burning. It is a rigged loop called the smile theory and it explains why your cash is worthless right now. Steven Jen discovered this anomaly in 2001 and it breaks every rule of economics. Most assets crash when the world is scared. But look at this curve on the left side. During a crisis, the dollar spikes because it's the only safe haven bunker for global cash. Now look at the right side. During a boom, when the US economy gets too hot, the Fed raises rates. That sucks liquidity out of Europe. And as it right back into the dollar, it wins on heads and it wins on tails. The only time the dollar dies is here in the boring middle when global growth is synchronized. But we aren't living in boring times. We are living in an era of extreme debt and conflict. As long as we stay at the edges of this smile, the US exports its inflation to you for a deeper dive. Tap the link in my bio to learn more.