Roman Baber explains why Canada's Conservatives lost the 2025 election despite winning 41% of the vote, their highest share since the mid-1980s. The NDP's collapse let Liberals win enough seats under Canada's parliamentary system, and Mark Carney's appeal to voters helped seal the result.
You guys were coasting for a pretty significant win. Why do you think the Conservative Party lost?
Conservative Party made monumental gains in this election. Record vote since the mid-'80s with more than 41% of the vote. Communities that previously never voted Conservative—working-class Canadians, labour, and young people—are now gravitating towards a Conservative message. I think the Liberals were able to capitalize. Mark Carney had a significant appeal for many voters. I frankly think that most of it was disingenuous.
You have a parliamentary system, so you don't have to to win a majority of the vote, or even close to it, to really win a majority of the seats. I think the last time the Conservatives won a majority, 53% of the seats, they had 39% of the popular vote. With 41-42%, that's actually territory for majority in Parliament. I think what happened here, the NDP completely collapsed. The NDP party, which is like the socialist party that typically splits the votes with the Liberals, right?
Absolutely, where the NDP is at 7 seats and their vote has completely collapsed. We've gained about a third of the NDP's lost vote and the Liberals gained two-thirds. Regretfully, that was enough to make the difference.
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