Don't Trade Until You See This: Weekly Market Outlook

Did the recent non-farm payroll report shake the market and possibly change the trend? So let's take a look on the charts and see the best opportunities for this week, and they will be super interesting. So welcome back to our weekly Forex forecast, guys. I'm Vladimir from Home Trader Club. And let's take a look quickly what happened there with the non-farm payroll and see how that actually will affect on the euro-dollar, the gold, and the other instruments. So first of all, 29,000— that's the lowest number could probably imagine. That's the new amount of, um, new jobs added to the market, while the expectations was 90,000 prior, uh, that was 133,000. The unemployment rate goes to 4.2% versus 4.1% expectation. And you can see also the average hourly earnings on the monthly and the annual ones are lower than expected. So this report is much weaker than expected. We can basically say the labor market loses its momentum. And more than that, it's actually weaker underneath. When you dive deep in the numbers, here is what you see. And the numbers shrink. The combined version, minus 6%. 60,000, and that's a big one. The hiring is slowing. The previous trends was revised lower. Now, how does that— what can we expect of the last report? How could that affect the market? What could we actually expect? So overall, this is dovish numbers, right? Dovish message. But very possibly that October would pause and show different numbers. Another high becomes much harder to justify with these numbers, but the inflation is still above the target. The long-term yields remain elevated. The bottom line, one report does not confirm a recession, but it's ringing all the bells. And how does that basically usually affect the market? What can we expect? So it's usually the bearish pressure on the dollar building Up, maybe not instantly, but building up. The Treasury yields on the short term probably to the downside. The gold is very likely to find a bullish support again, maybe not instantly, but that's the message usually happens after such data, and the stock could initially get some support as the growth risk remained. So what do we have on the chart? So I want to start with the euro dollar. Look what happens here on the euro since the last break of the Bollinger. Band here on the daily chart. We can see here, let me just change the color here, uh, we can see here that this is the first duplication of the Bollinger Bands. This is the second duplication. That's the third duplication. We now in a key zone. Look at the RSI and the 20 and below 20. Usually that's a sign that we are about to see some slowdown signs and a pullback. Keep in mind a couple of very important things. We are moving in a bearish channel here. Okay, so theoretically there is a bit more room to the downside, but we are already between the Bollinger Band duplication and oversold conditions, and we are getting very close. If we go to the higher time frame, take a look on the weekly chart, we are very close to retest the broken resistance line, and we are— if we draw this channel, this is the bottom, and this is a huge volume profile zone. So we are very close around the key zone, which very likely then would be reversal zone. But the pressure is still there, so pullbacks from my point of view still to be sold. And that's the main message, the way I see that on the 4-hour chart, uh, that, uh, there are no reversal signs. So on the short term, uh, I would want to sell these rallies. Of course, uh, we have the broken support acts as the resistance here, here, and here. All these are key levels, key resistance levels. In terms of highs, we have these levels which act as supply zones. So as long as they hold, I am after sell the rallies. But pay attention to this very, very, very important thing. We saw how close we are to key levels. So if we start to get that lower lows on the chart but higher lows on the MACD indicator, and RSI could start build that up, that would be a bullish divergence which hints that a deeper pullback could take place before, again, you probably further bigger sell-off to take place. So on the short term, these numbers could shake the ratio between the sellers and the buyers, but on the longer term, I think the pressure is still there, mostly because of the Going nowhere inflation. That's severe. Next one I want to cover is actually the euro pound. Take a look what happens here. The euro pound continues in its current developing bearish channel. Now the very interesting part here that since this high was broken, this low is key to be retested. This is a rising supportive line, and I believe we are about to complete these three waves where from. This is very likely to become divergence and cause bounces. But as long as it did not happen, I am looking to sell the rallies. So on the short term, we are riding for more than 20 candles on the lower Bollinger Band. Usually that means we should see some slowdown and retraces. Pullback back to this area, broken support acts as the resistance here and here. That's the key levels we have. Then we should be looking for pullbacks and from there sell these rallies until the weekly completes its cycle and the divergences. So I believe this one is a very good opportunity. Another super interesting one, the way I see that, that's the dollar yen. And the reason for that is the way that the waves are developing. So we are still holding this major supply zone. And volume profile area, anything in between the 158 up to 161, critical range. I believe that this is exactly where the sell opportunities should build up. On the lower time frame, 4-hour chart, look how it develops. It is probably creating here some sort of 2 waves with a potential zone of resistance here. And as long as this area holds I would be looking for the sell opportunities there. The way I see that, that the dollar-yen should find its comfortable reversal setup, start to build up here the— from rising to dropping candles and actually start its next move down to retest the 153 and then 152 and possibly all the way down to 150. And before the next chart, a quick reminder that we team up with one of the best brokers, one of the highest reputation brokers in our industry, AvaTrade. And we partner with AvaTrade, which means for you that you can get unlimited access to Home Trader Club and our— all of our projects, including the Trade Copier. The link to join is below this video in the description. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact and to ask. And where do we stand with the gold? So my bearish view remains on. As I explained last week, I believe gold eventually should complete that, ideally towards the $3,500 range, but it could actually pause before that. On the short term though, I would be paying attention to this rising supportive line and horizontal supportive levels as we get closer and closer and closer to the fourth $1,000. On the lower time frame, if you drop to the 4-hour chart, that's what you would see here— some ending waves. Usually that's a sign where divergences take place, buyers start to reject, and the gold could start its short-term rallies. So yes, I believe, uh, with all the recent non-farm payroll data which many times support a bullish view on the gold. And the key levels that are about to be retested on the gold, I believe this is about to complete the bullish divergence— lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD— and start the rally back to $4,250, possibly all the way towards the $4,300, and maybe even $4,500. Again, it's all on the short term because for the longer run, I don't have much doubts that after that gold should retest the $3,500 or at least drop below the $3,900. So this is my trading plan for the gold. And what do you think about this one? Last week we were talking about these key levels here, and I expect to see these divergence kicking, completing, and reversals build up. And this is exactly how I still see the Bitcoin. So there is one of the next scenarios I would like to follow. Completion of this run with some fakeouts, right? So fake high, fake high, and then a big reversal. If that happens, look for the break of the rising trend line and the recent low. That should be a great sign. And alternatively, if we build 2 waves down, 2 waves up with range and the breakout that also could be the trigger for that Bitcoin to start its way back to the $75,000. So I believe that starting from the current zone between the $85,000 and $90,000 up to possibly, uh, $95,000 to $100,000, that's the key zone where I believe Bitcoin gonna peak and start its corrective move to the downside. So these rallies, the way I see them, they are coming to the end and sellers are about to step in. So that's how I see these opportunities in the market. What do you see? Let me know in the comments. And as always, I hope you find value in these videos. If you do, don't forget to smash this like button and to subscribe to our channel if you are new to this channel. I also want once again to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. You can get 2 free weeks to learn and see how it all looks from inside and to enjoy our real-time education, real-time trading opportunities. Follow us with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.