Panel discussion comparing Central Texas multifamily markets (Austin, San Antonio, Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston). Key takeaways: Austin is at historically high vacancies with an expected peak around mid-2024 and rent declines through end-2024, creating operational pressure for landlords; San Antonio is forecast to run slightly above-average vacancies over the next 2–3 years due to continued development; by 2026 markets are expected to converge toward more normal dynamics as current supply waves are absorbed.
Questions this video answers
Around the midpoint of 2024.
Declining through the end of 2024.
About the next two to three years.
Currently ranks last.
Chapters
And just kind of highlighting Austin and San Antonio along with Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston. Just to kind of draw some comparisons here. You can see that I'll talk first.
About San Antonio and then let Israel talk about Austin.
You can see that, you know, Vacancy is probably going to be a little.
Bit higher here locally than it's going to be in Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston, at least over the medium term.
Maybe not quite as high as Austin.
Again because it's a different supply side situation.
But, but that's probably what's going to.
Be the picture for the next two, three years is a little bit above average vacancies here in San Antonio.
That's pretty normal in a lot of.
Even pre pandemic times because you know.
In previous, prior to 2020 and previous.
Years San Antonio was still a high growth, high development market. So Vacancy always ran a little bit high here in a lot of other markets where they're building quite a bit.
So, so that's probably what's going to.
Be the medium term forecast here.
And then looking at rent growth, it's.
A pretty similar outlook.
Again once you get to 2026, you're kind of seeing a lot of these.
Markets start to converge. But that's because a lot of the current supply wave will have been absorbed and things will probably get a little closer to a, to a supply something we would call a stable or more of a normal dynamics in terms of.
The fundamental balance of the market. So I'll let Israel talk a little bit about Austin now and then I.
Think we will be done.
Yeah, so I think just to recap, you know, Austin's multif family market at all time high vacancies, we're expecting to hit a peak at around the midpoint of 2024. So as a result rent growth is going to be challenged, continue to be challenged. For 2024. We currently rank last in terms of percentage change in asking rent growth at one of the 50 largest multifamily markets. And we're expected to keep that place over the coming year. So that's going to mean a challenging market operationally for many landlords in Austin to keep those occupancy levels up just given the extraordinary amount of competition out there. So you know, we're, we're continuing to see declining rents up until the end of 2024. So that's, that's kind of my key takeaway for Austin.
