China Navy Enters Strait of Hormuz to Break U.S. Blockade!

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I, uh, I've written books and countless articles on Iran, Saudi Arabia, West Asia, Middle East, that is all of those countries and locations and so forth. I wrote about their geopolitics, you know, and I've stood in Yemen, in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, in the borders with Iran. Not just read about them. I've walked the streets. I've been in China myself, thanks to the community, and I spent years in foreign internal defense and regional security work in Washington, the kind of work that doesn't show up in headlines but rather shapes them. So when the media tells you the presence of China's navy in the Gulf is either a bluff or a declaration of war, I can tell you from firsthand ground truth on both sides of this story, it's neither. It's something far more calculated and far more consequential. And this is why you need to know why this matters to you the most, and I am going to answer you I'm gonna answer for you that question, so make sure to stay with me till the end because also I have a major announcement for you. So, so we're gonna dig deeper into all this, what it all means as China— now in Beijing there is a conversation that the consideration regarding sending additional naval assets to protect oil tankers in the Gulf. So why, why is this important, you may ask? It's because the world's top oil importer is China. Yeah, and this why there is a consideration right now in Beijing about sending the naval ships. And I'm going to show you some images. Uh, I had to— I was aware of the story a few days ago, but you know how I do things. I have to verify and confirm and and so forth. So, so what China wants to do is wants to protect its commercial vessels in the area, you know, should the situation become unsafe to a degree. And that's exactly what Chinese ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, uh, his name is Ning Jian. I have a picture of him right here. This is the Chinese ambassador. That's exact wording. It's very unsafe. It's becoming the situation very unsafe. And he just stated this— you were talking about 2 days ago. So, so that is why it's important to understand these dynamics and why I decided to do this, uh, live stream for you, provide you my own analysis. Let me put the link for you in the chat box, uh, for those who wants to verify the story of the Chinese ambassador, uh, stating what he stated a few days ago. So now This is again when you have to think about how this is going to all play out. Well, this is, this is a live ongoing consideration in Beijing right now. This is— has nothing to do with what happened back in 2019, speculations. You all remember back then. No, what's interesting about this in comparison to what happened in 2019 when it was speculation about the Chinese Sun deal naval assets to the Persian Gulf, this is eerily relevant, the ones that is today. And this is why it has to be framed the right way. And you know how it has to be framed? Is that the Gulf Arab states have come out to see Beijing as a constructive force in the region. And that is why they are anticipating deeper economic engagement that will make it more willing to restrain Iran. That means that China will do that. But these Gulf states are misunderstanding China. They are now realizing that China is even less likely than before the war to take on responsibility for keeping the Gulf safe. Well, rightly so. It's not China's job to do that. Uh, to those who missed the— I released yesterday an analysis, video analysis. Here is the link for it if you want to take a look at that later on. This is where the Gulf States are now, between the security of the United States and the economic prosperity of China. They have to decide. They can't have it both ways. And if they are assuming that China is going to just like bear the cost to defend them, for what? So And this is why you have to put this within the perspective of Beijing's actual posture, because Beijing's actual posture is deliberate. Of course, there are those in, in, in, uh, think tank here in Washington, and I'm gonna share some with you. They're saying, oh, oh, this is China being paralyzed and dressing this up as a caution. No, I disagree with that assessment, and I have the facts for that, you know. So, because there is one aspect we need to understand, and what we need to understand is that critics inside China argued that a great power like China right now needed to do more to protect its interest and ensure regional stability. However, when you ask those critics they couldn't articulate what kind of different— what kind of strategy China needs to embark on. What will this strategy look like, okay, when you actually involve a military, or how to handle the cost? So this is why Beijing is deciding on doing nothing. That doesn't mean it's weak. Yeah. Because if you ask Gulf states right now, they're gonna tell you, we want China to be more engaged because we are losing patience with— no, doesn't work that way, you know. And this is where the critics— and I looked at some, uh, I'm gonna provide you the link, and I know certain places that receive funding from the US to say those kind of things. So here is what they're saying. For example, Foreign Affairs, their Foreign Affairs magazine, and those are usually scholars and so forth writing. Here is what they wrote, and I quote: China has turned out not to be as influential as we thought. Whether that is a lack of will, uh, whether this is a lack of will or a lack of capacity is debatable. End of quote. This is what Foreign Affairs article said, and I have the link of for you. But here is what you need to understand about this particular article, because two of those authors of that article are from the Australian National University in, in Australia. Why is this important? Because ANU, Australia National University, receives, in addition to other major Australian institutions, have historically received millions of dollars in so-called competitive research grants from the United States government agencies. This is what I need you to understand why they are saying. So I'm gonna put the link for you in the chat box and you can read it, uh, later on when you have a chance. Just— and I'm gonna provide you both the sides of the argument why I disagree with their assessment. So it's not that China turned out to be less influential. No, it's not the case. As one who is in a process right now of completing, uh, my, uh, my upcoming and forthcoming book, I devoted about 30 pages— you heard me correct— about 30 pages on describing the Chinese capabilities militarily. So I kind of know what I'm talking about. And when those think tanks are providing these suggestions or these arguments or these critics that has, uh, there has no substance to it. It's because they want to push agenda. Of course, Australia has always been one of the ways to do so because it's in, in that part of the world and they do the betting for Washington. So anyway, let's move on to why is this important. So why is it important now to understand that what China is considering in, in, as far as moving its naval assets, it's more important than what it was back in 2019. Here is the thing, the People's Liberation Army Navy, uh, PLAN hasn't gone kinetic yet, and it won't in my, in my own assessment.

Why?

Because it's prioritizing of so-called face, because they want to avoid operational or political blowback. This is not out of fear. Let me just clear, make that clear. It's because you also have to understand the rigid bureaucracy that exists in command and control structure within China apparatus.

Why?

Because ships, naval ships that is, need moment to moment authorization from Beijing before engaging. You remember that incident in the, in the South China Sea with the Philippines? Do you think China couldn't wipe out those, those sailors, whatever, those Filipinos? But China's not going to do that, one. And second, there is a structure that's going, and that is why for China, before it gets engaged, there is also that strategic view of the freedom of navigation because it's simply— it's not the PLAN's job. That is why the Gulf States are saying, well, we expect more from a strong country like China. No, you don't want China to go spend its money, its resources, its human capital to defend you like what we are doing, because we are paying the price. Chinese citizens are not. Because their government is not wasting the resources. Simple as that. So when you think about why Beijing is considering sending this navy, because to some, to some in the West, they're thinking, well, this keeps repeating as a headline without fully materialized. No, no, you have to understand the reason. As to why China's not willing to waste its resources. So, because there is the other angle, and the other angle has to do with Taiwan. So, because that's the key. China, China's naval expansion in the Gulf, of course China is considering certain aspects, especially when it, when it comes down to securing bases, uh, base in access. For example, the one in United Arab Emirates, the one in Oman, because to China those are seen as the most valuable. And let me put the map for you so you can see, uh, the Gulf, uh, states, uh, Oman, okay, access to the Indian Ocean of course and the Persian Gulf, and United Arab Emirates. This is why China is seeing it that way. But China has far bigger strategic thinking, and that strategic thinking is the protection of the sea lanes that are tied to China's own economic interest. So, uh, China's not going to become the security guarantor for everyone else. That's, that's— look, look, look how it's turning out for us. Americans are now struggling to make ends meet.

Why?

Because our tax dollars are being spent elsewhere. So, so this is why you have seen— you have to understand this as an incremental self-interested positioning, not some sort of, uh, this is the beginning of China stepping into America's shoes as regional guarantor. No, they are not. Chinese are wise enough to know, and that is why the importance of understanding this context, because without understanding this context, it's not going to make sense to you. And this is why the Gulf states are hoping that China's gonna resume both the economic and the security, uh, role. No, China's not gonna do that. China has other interests. That you need to consider. That is the point. So this is why it's important, this context. You have to understand it. If I am to take you back to the beginning of the war, February 28th, you know what happened with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, you know, boarding vessels and laying mines and so forth that triggered the US-led military campaign. And you remember the strikes from March 19th, then a naval blockade from April 13th, All of them aimed at forcing it back open, and we didn't succeed. So the Strait of Hormuz, uh, let me put the map for you to see. The Strait of Hormuz has sort of cycled between brief reopening, which happened in June, US-Iran deal, and renewed closure, breaking down again since, uh, mid-January. So, and ever since, and that is why it's important because this, uh, back and forth, Hank, cut off traffic to roughly 10th of the normal and driving the global fuel prices crisis. So, so about this is where you have to understand the position of China. China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 30% of its oil import, and that takes roughly 90% of Iran's oil that goes through this. That is why it's important to understand. So China is calculating, doing strategic calculations here. So, and that is why China has been running escort rotations of its own tankers which by the way has not been disclosed before. That is the harsh reality. So, and that's where the deployment of the destroyer and the frigate task force— those are Chinese. Let me share some, uh, pictures here. This is the Type, uh, what we call it, uh, 052D. That's a destroyer. Uh, here is another one, another picture of the same one here. Those are the Chinese warships, and I'm not saying all of them are there. I'm highlighting to you the aspects of China knows what it is doing regarding that. So because those task force, those naval assets are near the Strait of Hormuz. That's where they are. So at the same time, you have to consider also what is going on. And what's going on, why China's thinking this way? Yeah, because China has declined Donald Trump's direct request. You know what Donald Trump asked Chinese for in addition to NATO? And NATO, by the way, turned down Donald Trump. Sudan, China. The Donald Trump asks China to help reopen the strait. So why will China do that? Why would China incur the cost to respond to Donald Trump? Which is pathetic of him to be doing this. The guy is so damn pathetic, he has no shame. That's, that's the sad part. So, and this is why you have to understand what China is doing is relying on the political channels with Tehran behind closed doors. So this is why it's making the China Navy story far less about rescuing global shipping and more about Beijing protecting its own interest while avoiding entanglement in the US-led effort. Smart move, smart strategy, I would say. You know, unlike our— like Donald Trump, you know, guy, he cannot think strategically. He cannot think 3 months down the road, a year down the road. He got involved and was forced to engage in a war that has nothing to do with our interest. Now he can't get out of it. And by the way, I just saw this morning Iran's list of requests if they want Iran to stop the war, and rightly so. So let me tell you why this is significant as far as what China is doing. This is significant on multiple levels. We're talking militarily, geopolitically, and economically. Because when you think about it, militarily and economically, a strait— we're talking about the Strait of Hormuz— carrying roughly, as you all know by now, a quarter of the world's seaborne oil and a fifth, one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas, been effectively shut for months. And as a matter of fact, there have been some, some sort of incidents in the Gulf. In addition to the costs that are running into the hundreds of millions of dollars a day, not since the conflict started. So, and those hundreds of millions of dollars lost, not just for Iran, for all parties. So that was— this is, by the way, just the first, the first sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz in modern history, which by the way still under the firm control of Iran. This is not a brief scare. What this is, is rewriting global energy security assumptions in real time. This is what China's thinking long term. And when you think about it geopolitically, what does it— what this closure does. What is the request Donald Trump asking multiple times, asking China to intervene, to help escort in all this? No, no. Why would you ask China for after all what you've done, stabbing the Chinese in the back? You know, we, we don't think, we don't think ahead of time. So geopolitically This exposed the limits of the US alliance leverage because what happened? Washington couldn't get NATO, Washington couldn't get China to help reopen the strait despite direct request. And I have been on a good authority that the request to China was more than once through backdoor channels. Even France, France's Navy chief has publicly disclosed that— and I'm paraphrasing because I remember reading the report, the unclassified one, paraphrasing here. I remember when I read it, it's almost like saying that the, uh, the France's Navy chief publicly conceding Beijing isn't stepping up to guarantee the flow of shipping. China is stepping to guarantee its own, and rightly so. But at the same time, I will say to France, being hypocrites is the same country that said in its report 2 years ago that China is a threat to NATO. Remember? It was China— France that was advocating also for, oh, we need to reopen an office or open an office in Tokyo for NATO. This is why you can't trust the Western. They don't have any more credibility left. So the deeper significance of this is what it reveals about the emerging order. This is one thing I need you to get out of all this, is that the emerging order of the multipolar is in front of our eyes happening. In real time. Consider yourself lucky to be alive to witness it, because what China is demonstrating— it can sustain real naval presence near the US-dominated theater. Because we don't— they don't win escort rotations, they providing destroyers, frigate task force, and what have you, without, without being pulled into an acting as a guarantor of a system that the US built and now it can't singularly secure. That is the important aspects of this. So China can have its destroyers, China can have its naval assets, but China is not gonna fire a single shot. So, and that is a powerful preview of exactly the dynamics that I have highlighted in my books. Literally, I've addressed this in my Iran book, and I addressed this aspect in the Russian book, which I will share an excerpt with you, uh, in a second here. So I believe, because I anticipated this kind of, uh, of ventures or approach or initiatives from the Chinese This is why I believe China's endeavors go beyond just routine stops at naval bases for fueling and dropping supplies, like what happened in Djibouti, which we will talk about it in a second there. Rather, what China is aiming at is aiming at strengthening its posture without flexing, and it's sending at the same time a message to the United States and others that it will take, meaning China will take the necessary measures on land, by sea, and throughout the air to defend its strategic interests. And that is where that establishment of the Chinese naval base, which is small by the way— I was, I was there, I visited that place in, uh, in Djibouti let me get you the— I have the picture, I didn't upload it, but I'm going to show you a picture of the opening ceremony in Djibouti that took place in 2017, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, so, or even before that. No, no, no, that was before '17. So my point is that the idea of the Chinese presence in, uh, in, in Djibouti, which by the way, there is more than just China, there are other countries as well. Uh, let me see if I have, uh, oh yeah, I have a picture. Hold on a second, hold on a second, guys, let me upload it quickly, which gives you an idea when all the Western media focusing on China, they are not letting you know that there are other countries like Italy, like Japan, like France, and the United States. I was there on the ground. I was on the ground. I went to that base, those bases there. So, so that's where we have the Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. I was there, so I saw. But you need to understand that the establishment of the Chinese naval base, which is very small, very limited, uh, in Djibouti, means that it has a meaning, it has a message, it has significance. Is that Beijing understands that it's, it's, it's, it's global power now, because it's global power. There's no other way of looking at it. It can afford it now, the opportunity to build a political foundation. And at the same time forging ties with other countries it believes will play a pivotal role in realizing the Chinese strategic vision. It's not different than what we did, except the question many ask is why was it right for us and not right for the Chinese? So this is why you need to understand why China is quietly building parallel capacity and leverage rather than confronting the US primacy head-on. So, because you have to understand, while you have a live Sino-US naval proximity risk, because they are closer, the destroyers, Chinese destroyers and all that stuff, they're closer also within the Persian Gulf to the area where the US has certain presence there. You know, the destroyer operating near each other in a war zone, because Persian Gulf is a war zone now. Because this is, again, if, if there is an open conflict, nobody will fully control it. And this, it's important to understand for you. Why? Because this is a rare, literally a rare live case study of great power positioning happening in real time, rather than just in some concept or a theory. So I said earlier, consider yourself lucky to be witnessing history in the making. That's my point for this. That is why it's important to understand these dynamics. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, No agenda, just the stories they don't want you to know. Don't watch from the sideline, be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive.

Thank you.

And this leads me to ask the other, the other, uh, prevalent and important question: is China ready militarily to defend its strategic interest? And once again, I, I, I, I've been quietly doing the research for the last 2 years, by the way, regarding China. And I answered that question in the book. So, and of course, why I will, I will only let you know in due time. So militarily, if I am to take a step back and think about it, China ain't gonna go toe to toe with the Americans. Not they are scared or not they are afraid. It's not. This is why I asked you the question earlier. Let me, let me just get you— let me, let me see the the, the, the voting results on the post that I just did. And the question was: in a direct one-on-one total conflict between the United States and China, who will win? I know that ain't gonna happen, but at the same time, I have to ask the question. 90% of you said China, 1% of you said the US, 8% of you said none, neither the US nor China will win. And 1% of you said we don't know, which is fair. It's because if I am to base it on the Pentagon internal scenarios, which by the way, a few years ago, that was during my days when I was in Washington, the scenarios were simulated inside the Pentagon back then. We run about 18 scenarios. 17 out of 18, the US lost to China. And that, by the way, that scenario was not played out in the Middle East. It was played out in the, uh, uh, the, uh, Taiwan Strait. 17 out of 18. That should give you an idea. But here is what I need you to understand. China not going toe to toe with the American or the Americans with their Fifth Fleet, Seventh Fleet, what have you. No, it's by design, not weakness as they might have you believe. No, Beijing has leverage over Iranian behavior, but that leverage is not going to be through the military aspect. It's the economic relationship. Remember, China imports about 90% of Iran's oil. So in addition to China has signed a 25-year strategic partnership with Iran. So, and that the US Fifth Fleet power hasn't matched for that. So the pattern, in my opinion, holds. And the pattern from what? This is the pattern from what happened in 2023. When an Iran seized a Chinese-owned tanker, intercepted another one at the time. What did Beijing do? Beijing, they didn't lodge a protest, they didn't send warships. No, no, no, no, no, no. All what Beijing did after that is sent the 052D/DL type destroyers. That's the one I showed you earlier. Right there. After that incident, that's what exactly Chinese did. Uh, this is the, uh, frigate, the 504. This is the frigate here. This is the destroyer. And that is again, China decided, you know what makes more sense, to send the convoy protection not for contesting the blockade with the US and fighting the US Navy. No, no, no. China is smart enough, they think. And remember, to those, to my viewers who are familiar with The Art of War by Sun Tzu, you can subdue your enemy without firing a single shot. You know, here is, here is the important aspects to understand it when you think about the strategic interests. When I say strategic, I am also referring to the economic aspect and the geopolitical outlook for that, you know, because what you are seeing is a structural aspect. China imports roughly 5 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz. That represents about, uh, between 40 and 45% of its total crude import. Yeah, this where it exposed the blue water investments. What does it mean from China's perspective? That's the, the crisis that took place, it's taking place right now, it exposing this blue water investment hasn't solved the chokepoint dependency, you know. And we're not even talking yet the gaps in insurance, financial architecture and, and so forth. And this is important because no navy can fix this problem. And this is why you have to think about the strategy, the broader aspect or broader approach of the PLAN, the People's Liberation Army Navy. Modernization is real and fast-moving because what you have, you have about 3 carriers, next generation of destroyers, expanding submarine fleets. All of this is for a reason. And yet you have the analysts who never step foot on China soil, who never engaged in a conversation with locals there, scholars or what have you. Those analysts still flag that Beijing remain vulnerable to blockades. In a hypothetical conflict with US Navy. They just have no understanding. So because what China is doing, it does not want to pre-possession itself, militarily speaking, to unilaterally defend a distance choke point that is so far out, like the Strait of Hormuz, by force. They're not going to do that. Because China is not even gonna try. What China is betting on is the economic leverage. That is the smart move. So, because the economic leverage and restrain will serve China's interest far more and better than a naval confrontation that is not ready for. And it doesn't want. That is the harsh reality that I need you to understand as to why China is going about it this way. But suffice it to say, the message is loud and clear that China is defying, defying the US presence in the region. Yeah, that's China's message. And that leads me to ask the other logical question: can and will the United States intervene to stop Chinese oil tankers. Now, there are some of you said, "Oh, Dr. Oh, this already happened." Yeah, it did happen once. But at the same time, Washington realized that it better chose the economic tool and the legal pressure than to go into a direct confrontation. And that is why the Americans went ahead and sanctioned major Chinese refinery, uh, petrochemicals, like for example the Hengli Petrochemical Company and dozens of other more. Yeah, that's why, because now the concern in America, especially with the incompetent Donald Trump, he's concerned about, because as you know, next month President Xi Jinping is going to be coming to Washington. There is a visit, to my knowledge, in September. Whether it's going to be postponed or not, I do not know at this point. And that is why the US is kind of— because it will be a big blow if President Xi Jinping cancels his trip or even postpones it. And I won't be surprised that the Chinese might do it. That is, again, so I mean, we're not denying that the US have physically boarded some stateless, yeah, stateless flagships or tankers. That is, that was especially the one that was, uh, it's called the MT— MT— I forgot the last name. It's— I remember it was on April 20th or 21st, one of those dates. The one that I remember, and I even did picture for you, is the Tuska, which is the Iranian one. That I remember because I remember that incident, you know, because this Tuska made the stop in China. So, and that in itself, it prompted the Chinese— because it was on its way to China— it prompted the Chinese foreign minister to call the situation sensitive and complex. That is why it's important to understand. So whether the US goes further, actually intercepting Chinese flag or PLN escorted ship, is different story. The US is not willing to do that. It's a much higher risk for the Americans. And this is why the evidence suggests that Washington is deliberately also avoiding to engage the Chinese directly. That is the harsh reality. Of course, Washington wouldn't want to disclose that because, remember, it's not an easy just to go and, and, and interdict some shadow vessels just like this. You have to understand the resources-intensive, uh, uh, risks involving this. There is a harm to the US personnel. The girls could be shot at as they were dropping from the helicopters. You know, the stress, stretch of the Navy that is already thin. You have now naval families, you know, the sailors on aircraft carriers, their families now are sort of protesting against the Department of Defense. You have the enforcement mechanism, you know, there, there's so much involved into it. It's not just easy to just go and and intercept something like that. So the Chinese know better. So, and when you have more than one tanker, how much can you go? How much can you cover? So add to that, you have to consider the timing. The sweeping sanctions crackdown came ahead of Donald Trump-President Xi summit that is coming up next month. This is why I'm saying you have to understand the economic and the legal interventions. So that's what the US is embarking on, but the US wants to avoid any direct, uh, conflict with the Chinese vessels. So here is what I wrote regarding this question when I addressed it back in my, uh, sorry, I addressed it in my Russia book. That is what I wrote: if the United States— and that was back in 2018, by the way, guys or 19 or something like that. If the United States ends up warring with Iran, in other words having a war, I am convinced that Russia and China will support Iran behind the scenes. The US is on a dangerous path, to say the least, as a war with Iran will take on wider dimensions involving countries that seek to defend their strategic and economic interests. The other alternative announced by Donald Trump is regime change in Iran. It demonstrates not only the president's ignorance about historical events, particularly the 1953 CIA and MI6 orchestrated coup in support of the Shah,, but also the effect regime change will have on the region's political landscape. This is the harsh reality that Donald Trump doesn't get. And of course, how can you expect him to understand that? The guy is clueless. So, and this is again what we did. This is a picture, by the way, I found one in the archives from 1953 of the Shah and his wife. So, so back then, I, I argued that if there is a war with Iran, which, like what I wrote the article in 2016 about, if America ends up bombing Iran, it will open up a Pandora's box. And I put that in my, uh, Substack, uh, uh, when I talked about the, the, the, the collapse of the— actually, I'm gonna get you the link here, bear with me here, guys. I'm gonna get you that, Substack, and I'm gonna get you the— and I put there the article that I published in 2016, back then, in which I kind of predicted the possibility of the US bombing Iran and what it will lead to. So, so here is the link. I'm gonna put it for you in the chat box should you decide to read it. It will be a good read for you because it really exposed the truth about the American dream that has died already. You know, there is no other. You know, that's exactly, uh, uh, what I wrote back then. So, so just take a look at that article if, if you decide to do so. And, and this also leads us to the question: what are the geopolitical and security consequences of this US intervention? Against the Chinese, because the most immediate consequences is a live escalation risk, and nobody will fully control. So with U.S. forcing— forces rather sort of boarding now tankers with China ties, that's going to become a much more problems, because what you have, you have the PLAN destroyers now escorting convoys. This is what they're doing now. The US is not disclosing this. Why do you think the tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz recently, those are meant for China, and the US couldn't do squat about it? Yeah, the media is not disclosing this, and I'm telling you based on evidence. So, so you have two navies operating in proximity in a war zone, okay? And even, even the perception— because you have to think in terms of the perception, perception sometimes can lead into issues— of either the US intercepting or boarding a US— boarding a Chinese tanker, or the Chinese naval intervention near the Hormuz, in either action will carry some sort of consequences extending from Gulf oil prices to a broader Sino-American relations. And with that, in reference to Sino-American deterrence dynamics, so China has so far been restraining, been restrained, limited, and so far is kind of absorbed the pressure through protest rather than retaliation. So this is why you have to understand the statements coming out of the ministry, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, that they look at these incidents as sensitive and complex. So, and of course, Donald Trump is so concerned about the global perception, the global image. If President Xi Jinping canceled his upcoming trip to China— to, I'm sorry, to Washington. So, and that is why Donald Trump is willing now to let this friction go, because he does not want it to impact that image. Because remember, it's for his political capital to have that image with President Xi Jinping that the rest of the world sees. Because at the same time, you have the Gulf states that are saying, you know, America, I think your days are numbered here. They're numbered. We don't want you here anymore. Especially now you have Oman and Iran coming to an agreement regarding the administration of the Gulf, of the Strait of Hormuz, rather. So, and with that comes the other part. The second part of that question is we asked if the US will intervene. We also have to ask, will China use force? Doing my research for the last 2 years for my, uh, forthcoming, uh, book about China, all evidence suggests to me that The evidence points to the answer is no, no, China would not use force, at least not in this crisis, and at least not yet. Because you have to remember, once you start digging into Chinese history, you learn over the three dynasties, the Qing, Yuan, and And, and the, uh, what's the, the other one? The, the Chin— I forgot the third one. Then you think about the establishment of the PRC, then you think about the Civil War, then you think about all that history. So yeah, yeah, China has playbook, it has playbook that it did in 2023 and it's doing it now. And that playbook is absorption rather than confrontation. So that is the whole idea. You have to think of it that way. It makes more sense. So, so China is not gonna get toe-to-toe, even though it could. It just for now is not warranted, and that is why China is building its naval capabilities beyond to ensure, for example, that this won't happen in the Strait of Malacca, this won't happen in the Taiwan Strait, and somehow to manage the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and of course the Bab-el-Mandeb down the road if ever Chinese vessels go there. So the answer is no for now. So, but the only thing is that how likely is China now actions will reshape the global security landscape? And for that, I can tell you very likely over time. So, however, it's gonna be methodical, it's gonna be slower, it's gonna be well organized, it's gonna be subtler. Mechanism through that than the, like what we've been doing, the classic power confrontation or the great power confrontation. That China is not going to do that. So because this, in my opinion, this, uh, Strait of Hormuz crisis is, is a live preview of the model. Once again, Chinese thinking strategically here. Same with Iran. Did Iran want to head and face the US toe to toe? No, it's being smart. So rather than matching US naval power head on, no, China is demonstrating it can sustain a real presence in a contested US theater. Because remember, there are 48, 48 escort rotations and destroyers frigate task forces near the Strait of Hormuz. The media will not disclose that to you, and I have it on good authority that the rotations are happening or have happened. At the same time, while China is doing this, is leveraging at the same time the economic ties, not with Washington but with other countries that Washington cannot replicate. Tell me, to those who are in the know, tell me if there is any, any Gulf States right now is embarking on some economic ventures the same way China does, or the rest of the world for that matter. And that's exactly what I said in this particular, uh, analysis that I released yesterday, or the day before, whatever that is. Go, go, go check out that video. I put the link for you in the chat box. The trillion dollar gamble, that's what the Gulf states are doing because the economic ventures. So that's where the difference is, because you think about Washington cannot replicate China's 90% of Iranian export relation, gives China more direct influence over Tehran. Than the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain or the US naval presence. And that's, again, you need to understand this dynamics. And this leads me to my last question, as I mentioned at the beginning: why should you care? What's in it for you? And why you decided to sit here and listen to what I have to say, besides being a member of the community? And I'm so glad that you are here. So speaking of that, by the way, I would greatly appreciate if you can type in where you are joining us from, what part of the world you're from. I would greatly appreciate it and thank you. So why should you care? The first thing that comes to my mind is that this is not some sort of a theory, an abstract, 'cause I don't do, I don't talk to you in abstract. I don't talk to you in concepts. And even if I do concepts, I break them down to a real life experience so you understand. So this isn't some abstract theory playing out somewhere far away. No, it's a live rehearsal, in my opinion, for the actual shape of the next few decades of the global power, which is exactly what I argued in my forthcoming book about China and the fuel of it. Because the fuel that you are using in your vehicle, the prices of the goods you and I are paying, are already downstream of this particular live case study. You have a fifth of the world oil and liquefied natural gas has moved through Straits that's now effectively shut for months, which what drives the prices, uh, shock that you are witnessing. I'm sure whatever part of the world you are, you are witnessing the, the, the hike in those prices. And at the same time, you have two of the world's most powerful navies operating in close proximity in the same waters. And the scary part of this, there are no rules of engagement between them because we don't have the red phone per se, the communication between Washington and Beijing, which something I argued in— I argue in my forthcoming book that needs to be established to avoid disaster. I lay out all the scenarios for how to fix that problem. So when the book is released, you can get a copy and read it if you choose to do so. And that is the scary part. There is no clear rule of engagements between China and the US in that part of the world.. And more importantly for you, why is it important not only to watch this but listen and understand what's going on? Because as I said, you— the preview you are getting here can't get anywhere else. How actually China behaves under pressure, because you're looking at a patient, you're being patient, you're looking at economic leverage. Over military confrontation. So how far, how far is the US willing to push sanctions and inter— interceptions of the rival power's shipping?

No.

And where the real red lines sit, those are important because the same blade playbook being tested in the Gulf right now is exactly what will govern a future Taiwan crisis or South China Sea confrontation. Look at the big picture. Understanding this today means not being blindsided tomorrow. And speaking of that, I do have an interesting topic for you in the next 2 days. I was sitting on that topic for 5 days. There is a reason. China just did something, did it a few days ago, to the US Navy in South China Sea. You will be shocked to learn what that is, and I am going to address that for you on Wednesday or Thursday, haven't decided yet. So make sure you join me for that. So here's my conclusion for you, and I'm gonna do, some clips, but I'm gonna share a great announcement with you, as I told you at the beginning. Here's my conclusion for you. Having worked in Washington in a foreign internal defense and regional security, having spent time on the ground walking the streets of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, China, near the border with Iran, having authored a book on Iran a book on China, which not released yet, book on Saudi Arabia, book on Russia, book on American foreign policy in the Middle East, and countless articles. And with the China book underway right now, I've watched, literally based on experience, I've watched this exact pattern of quiet calculated power building play out before. No, what's happening right now in the Strait of Hormuz isn't a footnote. Need you to understand that it's a rehearsal on part of Beijing for the world order we are all going to be living in soon. That's the harsh reality. So I'm gonna leave you with one question before I'll jump into, uh, uh, my announcement, then I'll play the clips for you. Here's the question I want to leave you with: if China is willing to absorb this much pressure without firing a shot to protect its oil lifeline, what will it do when the stakes are high in Taiwan? Legitimate question to ask, because I will be addressing this for you in today's— and as I mentioned, I, I dedicated about 26 to 30 pages in my forthcoming book, uh, about China. Uh, so I'm dealing right now with the— some publishers wanted the book. I haven't decided yet whether I'm gonna do that or not, so we'll see, we'll see. So, all right, let me, let me, uh, share the announcement with you first, then, uh— oh, let me say thank you to Rafael. We haven't seen you for for a long time. I figured you're either traveling, busy somehow, but it is so good to see you, Rafael. And I will never, ever, ever take for granted your support for the channel for the past few years. So once again, I want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart. So thank you, Rafael. You're right, I agree. Everything we are witnessing now is the result of the many joint naval exercises between China, Russia, and Iran over the many years. Spot on, spot on. And that is exactly why I do this kind of live streams. Those, to me, it's a form of, uh, informal analysis report that I do for you. So now let me share with you the announcement. Take a look at the number here. Look where we are. You remember that anonymous donor, D-R-A-L-A, when he or she wrote back then? Because they, uh, he or she shared with me, extending my support for your upcoming Asia trip. I will once again contribute dollar for dollar up to $1,000 should the community make further donations. End of And guess what, guys? The donor just did yesterday a donation of $1,000 because we reached that— remember that $7,500? And I said when we reach that, the donor will match it. That donor was true to his or her word, and I am forever grateful. So I just want you to know, uh, this one. There are two other donors. One of them asked me to keep his or her name anonymous, and I will honor that. And the other person told me it's okay if I disclose the name, and that name is Doug. That's all I can say. I can't pronounce the full— I'm not going to say the full name. Doug. So thank you so much, Doug, for your PayPal donation, a major donation that leads us to where we are. Right now. So we are almost there. Uh, whoever next donor, or all of you, if you can pitch in, I will greatly appreciate if I can hit that target number within a week and a half, because I have to go ahead and start making reservations and so forth and, and, and, and plan the trip, because it is a lot of moving parts. So you will, you will know once we get to that. So once again, here is where we are in the target. Uh, and I'm gonna share with you the link to— if you want to contribute for us to reach this, uh, if there is another donor wants to donate even more, we will be so grateful for that. And I am thankful. All right, there is the link for the channel if you decide to support the channel, uh, and I would greatly appreciate it. And the last one I will share with you before I play the clips for you, which is the interesting clips is this one right here. Uh, this is for— I'm sorry, uh, uh, this is for my books right there. Sorry, uh, those ones for my, uh, Saudi, Russia, American foreign policy in Middle East, Iran. And soon I will be putting, uh, once I make a decision, I'll be putting this one up. All right, let's, uh, let's move on to clips. Those are very, very interesting, and I'm gonna start the first one about China, something you need to know. And, and here is the thing, this particular clip is very interesting. The guy is really, really exposing— that's what I'm saying to you— the media is not disclosing how bad the economic conditions in America is, and I'm not going to shy away from saying this, this individual is putting the numbers. Take a lesson, please.

Only pay property tax one time and you own your home. In communist China, you only pay property tax one time and you own your home for a lifetime. Wait a minute, in China you only pay tax one time on your vehicle. And you don't have to replate it every year? Wait a minute. If you make under a certain amount of money, you don't pay income tax? They take your share from the very rich elite? Wait a minute now. For $20 US, you can buy a week's worth of groceries? Hold up, hold up now. Wait a damn minute. You mean all parks and zoos and museums are free because they are public property. Wait a damn minute here. The US government has stepped in shit. We don't only smell it, we see it, and they now know that we know it.

He's right. And I was in my last— I think last trip I went to a museum And about the Qin Dynasty, I didn't pay to get in. It was free to get in to see all that historical. So is the Chinese government that is funding this kind of exhibits and so forth. So it's, uh, so I just really want you to be aware of this. And this leads me to highlight to you what's going on with the, uh, the corruption into our system. This is the, this is the FBI director. Yeah, FBI director lied. So that's why I'm telling you our system is corrupted to its core. Take a listen, please.

News to tell you about. We are able to report that FBI Director Kash Patel is in, quote, panic mode. We have that brand new reporting breaking moments ago from our colleagues Carol Enig and Kendall Annihan. It's about the turmoil inside the FBI right now after a string of deeply embarrassing and rather alarming stories about Kash Patel and his tenure as the head of the country's top law enforcement agency. From that new reporting, quote, Kash Patel has ordered the polygraphing of more than two dozen former and current members of his security detail and other staff, and has been described as in panic mode to save his job and find leakers among his team. That is according to two people briefed on the development. Kash Patel has walled himself off from some senior bureau leaders this week in the wake of multiple media reports that raised red flags about his leadership. What's more, Patel has reportedly avoided meeting with operational leaders at the FBI this week.

This isn't a low-level field agent.

This is the director of the Federal Bureau of— Yeah, I just want to highlight to you the lying of the— well, of course, if his boss is a liar, how do you expect the employees? Because the boss is not a role model, is a, is a freaking liar. So what do you expect your employee to be? Because we don't have the accurate punishment for corrupted officials. That's the problem in America. Till we do, nothing is going to change. So next one is, uh, I forgot, sorry. Yeah, yeah, this one about— remember that article I shared with you that I wrote about the, the, the death of the American dream, because that American dream is, you know, people are now— some of us just exist here now, which is sad. So that's why you're seeing now people moving out. Take a listen, please. Not at all.

Does America feel great again?

No, not at all. You know, I can get laid off tomorrow, then I'm pretty much homeless because, you know, you can't save now. Every dollar you have has to go to gas, groceries, bills, rent.

Does America feel great again?

Not in the way everyone wanted.

With gas prices and you just can't—

you can't afford to breathe at this point.

What does it feel like to be living in these conditions right now, in these economic conditions right now?

Hurt. Very hurt.

Um, I try to do—

sorry, I cried.

Um, I try to do a lot for my kids and I can't do much.

It's hard, especially as a father, because you ain't got that extra cash to go and spoil your kids. So it's pretty difficult. Well, the middle class is definitely being affected. Yeah, low class might as well, you know, crawl in a hole because they can't afford anything. Drill baby drill just didn't go, go, go. I don't think you still can't beat inflation no matter what. Well, it seems we never catch up. And that's why Americans, some of us, are so damn oblivious that we are just watching. You know, where's that powerful people? What? Why? Why on earth When there is, there is a major football, whatever, everybody's attention is on to that. And yet with something like this, nobody's paying attention.

No.

Once you start seeing starved Americans in the streets, things will change. But because the system is corrupted, the members of Congress, the, the, uh, you know, it just— and both parties, Republicans and Democrats. Do you know that now I found out yesterday 21 Democrats members of Congress are supporting Israel behind closed doors. 21 senators and members of Congress. Same with the Republican. It's just corrupted. The system is corrupted. So it is the next one I want to play for you. Take a listen here, please.

Generals, and they did it on purpose, in public, to the press, because that was the only way left to stop him. So here's what's actually happening right now that nobody on your timeline is talking about. America's top military commanders, generals, admirals, people with actual stars on their shoulders, started leaking classified operational assessments to the Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, even the New York Post. And what they're saying should terrify you. 80% of America's THAAD interceptors gone. Half the Patriot missile stockpile used up. Long-range precision munitions virtually wiped out. One senior commander literally said these stockpiles have never been this low, ever, in the history of the United States military. And here's the part that makes you want to scream into a pillow. General Grinkrich, the top Allied commander in Europe, NATO's guy, one of the most respected officers we have left, put it in writing to the Pentagon. He said, without another Navy destroyer in Europe, I will be forced to choose between defending the American homeland and defending Israel. Let that marinate. The man who swore an oath to protect this country is being forced to pick between us and someone else's war because Donald Trump burned through our arsenal like it was a casino budget. Speaking of casinos, you know what Trump did to every casino he ever touched, right? Bankrupted them. And now our generals are saying out loud that he did the exact same thing to the United States military. The man literally bankrupted the Pentagon's weapons closet. And it gets worse. CENTCOM, that's Central Command, the people running operations in the Middle East, sent out a mass email, a crowdsourcing email, asking random military analysts for new, creative, and unconventional ideas to punish Iran. They're brainstorming over email like it's a college group project the night before it's due. Officials said that was highly unusual. Yeah, I'd call begging for homework help from the entire military a little unusual. Meanwhile, the US quietly abandoned bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Just packed up and left because they literally could not defend those positions anymore. Saudi Arabia is desperately trying to cut its own deal with the Houthis because the American security umbrella It has holes the size of an aircraft carrier. So what did the generals do? They hatched a plan straight out of a parenting manual for toddlers. Iran and Oman were already negotiating a deal over the Strait of Hormuz. The generals basically said, hey Donald, you don't have to do anything. Just let this deal happen and then tell everyone you did it. Give the man a participation trophy and let him manipulate the stock market on the announcement. That's the strategy. That's where we are. The adults in the room are managing the commander-in-chief like a tantrum at a birthday party. And Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary who got pushed out of a veterans nonprofit for mismanagement, is on TV screaming that CNN is lying, which honestly is the most reliable confirmation that every word of it is true.

Yeah, she is right. And by the way, the speaker is AI-generated, but the content The content is true. I have it on good authority that the head commanding officer in, in, in, in Europe has been fired, and two other generals this morning has been fired. So, so that's, uh, I just want you to know that is, that is true. Uh, next one is from, uh, she's a podcaster, I believe, or I don't know if she is a journalist per se. But you wouldn't know who she is.

Anna.

She's been outspoken regarding what's going on in the country. Take a listen, please.

Israelis.

Yeah.

You've been dealing with death threats.

Yeah.

And I think recently it was specifically coming from the Canary Mission side. How are you navigating all that?

I'm navigating it by getting more aggressive and covering Israel on the show. They can fuck off. Okay? I'm an American. I'm not going to let some foreign country and their little operatives in, in America scare me from speaking out about what I see happening in Gaza, in the West Bank. You want me to pretend like I'm a journalist or I do the news while I'm lying to my audience about the reality? No, I'm not going to do that. And so they can threaten me all they want. I don't trust these—

that's true. Sometimes when you take on the responsibility of disclosing the truth, you you have to be ready to deal with the consequences. I know someone one time told me, oh, well, Doctor, aren't you afraid that the government will, will come after you? It's like, come after me for what? You know, it will be a mistake, first of all, if they ever do. And second, they have much bigger issues to deal with than going to come after me. And third, I'm not saying something that is not true. So that's the point. So sometimes you have to, uh, to extend. And, and because that's the only thing you're going to be remembered for, is what have you done for humanity. This is not about your bank account and your, your materialistic stuff. All that will— we don't take anything with us. It's what have you done for humanity. Uh, next one is, uh, about the new, uh, candidate who won in Michigan, uh, Abdulrahman El-Sayed. He's known as Abdul Saeed. So take a listen, please. What Donald Trump said.

Going after El-Sayed.

When they thought it would be a landslide victory for a hater of Jews and a hater of Israel. Which is not true. He's lying. Donald Trump is lying. This guy hates Jews. No, he doesn't. Somebody said, oh, that's a little strong. No, he hates Jews and he hates Israel. Abdul Meanwhile, here's what he actually says. Jewish people, I stand with Judaism and I stand with the Jewish people. And the single most dangerous thing that they've tried to tell us is that somehow they can extend the definition of antisemitism to include a foreign government and its leaders.

I call bullshit.

No.

So that's what this is about. He's calling out Zionists and the fact that they're Israel-funded in Israel first.

Yeah.

That's straightforward. I have Jewish friends, wonderful human beings, you know, but it's the, the government where the issues are, you know, it's kind of all of them. No, no. And that's exactly what Donald Trump is lying as always, because he is inherently a liar. So, and the last clip I want to share with you is about, uh, a new type of Iran's missiles. That's surprising. Once you know, you'll find out rather where he came from. So take a look, please, or listen, that is.

Demonstrates its Mersad medium-range air defense system, a domestically produced evolution of the US-designed MIM-23 Hawk. The battery combines mobile launchers, phased tracking radars, and command vehicles to engage aircraft, drones, and some cruise missiles. Each launcher carries up to 3 Shahin or Shalamcheh interceptor missiles. With reported engagement ranges of up to 40 kilometers. Iran demonstrates its Mersad—

All right, I just wanted to share this with you. I have a few more other clips that I will play for you next time because we almost passed the top of the hour here. So, so I truly, truly appreciate you being here once again, and I will be working on that story for you regarding what China just did to the Navy. US Navy in South China Sea. So make sure to join me in a few days and, and I'll post it for you. So to all of you, I'll say thank you. Please hit the like, uh, uh, button and share this video with others. I would greatly, greatly appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.