Saudi Arabia Just Became America's Iran Strategy

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. So excited to be with you. Hope you had a relaxing weekend. I got an interesting topic that everyone now arguing whether Iran actually destroyed 3 F-35s in Jordan. So I spent years working in the field of foreign internal defense and original security out of Washington. So what I can tell you is that the real story isn't about the damage assessment. No, it's why Trump almost— I say almost— decided to go forward with bombing Iran's energy grid 4 days later and why he didn't. So in addition to that, my background, military and otherwise, is also commensurate with my academic background when I wrote my book about Iran. And I argued in it that with the changes that's coming in the next decade from the time I wrote the book, and I mentioned one word, rewiring the global order, which is exactly what we are seeing here. So what you're noticing now is this is the same playbook out of— in real time in the Gulf region. And with this comes the question of why should you care? Why do you want to sit here and listen to what I have to say? So I'm going to be sharing with you my analysis about these developments, and please make sure to stay with me till the end because I have a major announcement I'm gonna do towards the end. So far, and I'm gonna be playing some clips to prove certain information that I had my own way of confirming certain info. Other ones I wasn't able to confirm due to inability— the provision of certain key material that justify whatever. So I'm gonna be laying out everything for you on the table and you decide for yourself. So what I'm gonna be talking about, I'm gonna be talking about first of all, and I'm opening my calendar in front of me here Why? Because I want to take you back to July 30th, and I'm gonna take you back to August 1st. So on July 30th, Iran IRGC claimed that ballistic missiles destroyed 3 F-15, uh, F-35s. I have a footage, I'm gonna share the clip with you in a second here. And what the IRGC stated is that they also damaged 3 more at the Mu'afa Salti Air Base. Makes you just wonder why this specific base is targeted in Jordan. Now Jordan is exposed for having been the hub of the not only US military presence but also, uh, covert intelligence operations. Jordan— because with this analysis I'm going to be providing you today, we're going to ask one fundamental question. Is what the future holds for the Gulf states writ large. And this is again where you have to think in terms of, of course, the assertion from the American side is remain unverified. This is what they say. So Central Command already flatly denied this. Of course it is expected, rejecting the claim outright, and especially when you realize there is no satellite imagery coming with this. And this is why the— even some satellite imagery, and I am waiting on one from Beidou, from the Chinese side, and I am waiting for one from the Russians, because so far the normal satellites that mainstream media depends on hasn't settled this matter either. So, uh, earlier imagery from the base showed confirmed— it is with the difference— earlier satellite imagery showed that there's confirmed precision strikes on newly built hangars. But the specific one for July 30th, the F-35, is an independently substantiated by the available imagery. And I'm going to tell you why in a second, why that is. So, so no, no aircraft clear wreckage burn patterns or shatter damage, uh, uh, or shelter rather, uh, damage confirming the 6 aircraft total. So of course, if we are to say— and again, I present both sides of the argument I present Iran's claim. I present also the US denial because what the arguments coming out of Washington and some media affiliated with the government, and by the way, government not just here, government in London, government in Paris, government in Berlin, all of them, they're saying that the imagery is inconclusive or rather than confirmed kill per se. So I'm gonna play a clip for you first, then we'll, we'll move to the next. I have second clip that follows that one. So, so let's take a listen here. Okay, that is the first— I'm sorry here— that is the first clip. The second one, I'll show you the, uh, the base itself because you need to see that one. And I think I already shared this one. Now what I need you to know is this was based on July 20th. However, the dimension that is the same, certain locations there that were targeted on July 30th and August 1st. So, so just take a look here. I don't play the sounds here. So, uh, here is just the extent of the damage at the base. The two locations with the X, those are part of the new hangars. All right, I just want to show that one, at least for you, uh, to see what is going on with that one. Now, what is the extent of the damage? You know, what kind of missiles Iran used? Because we need to take that into, uh, and why? Those are legitimate questions as to why the Central Command came right away and denied, oh, nothing happened. Because first of all, they wanted, of course, to, to limit the coverage on this. Second, Jordan is becoming now exposed as a major hub for US covert operations, military and intelligence-wise. And this is why the focus on the Mu'afaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Why that is? Iranians must have specific intelligence that led them to that. And was this strike a primary reason for throwing Trump and Washington into this ray by deciding, are we gonna back down from this? And I'll answer that question for you in a second. For now, I just wanted to provide you some ideas of, at least based on my own resources, this is where I see it going. So is this forcing Donald Trump to back down from the strikes on Iran? No, and this according to some sources inside the US, because the, the strikes were planned, especially after the visit of Netanyahu. So, and the other legitimate questions to ask is how will the strikes affect the trajectory of the war? Another question we're gonna have to ask. So, and yet with all this, You all know how now Trump's been playing this. You threaten to strike, you back down. Some have argued even— I had a conversation 2 days ago with someone and said, you know, this has to do also with the market. Trump trying to influence the market, stock market that is. So because if the Trump postponed the strike or did he cancel it all together? So those are many questions that deserve an answer to this one here. So one thing is for sure that I need you, and I confirm it based on my own resources, so, and those resources I trust, is that the strikes were indeed carried out. So of course, U.S. and Jordan statements confirmed that the base, the, uh, Mu'afaq Salti base, was attacked twice on Thursday, which is July 30th, and on Saturday morning, which is August 1st. And like I said earlier, of course they confirm it only on this side, but the Americans, of course, have yet to admit to anything as far as the destruction of the three As a matter of fact, 6, but 3 damaged, uh, 3 were damaged. That's it. They can't find the other one. We were hit by shrapnels and rendered, uh, dysfunctional according to my sources here. So, and by the way, to those who say, well, how, how do we know, Dr. Oualaalou, your sources? But there are ways of how you communicate with your sources without using email. Without using even a phone. So let's not get into that. Suffice it to say that I check, confirm before I'll come on the air and share with you what I need to share. I was inside Washington. I dealt— I worked across the governments, all agencies, military, intelligence, and otherwise, law enforcement as well. So you got the idea. And that is what I'm saying. The US is not admitting anything yet. So of course the Jordanians have to follow the order of the Americans. What the Jordan— what the Americans are telling the Americans is go ahead and issue the statement that you intercepted Iranian missiles. I'm going to show you the pictures of the types of missiles that the US itself couldn't intercept, let alone Jordan. So, and this is why When you take into consideration that US has admitted previously, not based on these two last incidents, previously when Al Udeid was attacked, when Kuwait was attacked, when Bahrain was attacked, United Arab Emirates and Egypt, and I'm sorry, Jordan back then, that US air defenses were incapable of stopping Iranian missiles from reaching their targets. The US has also acknowledged that they don't have anything in stock to deal with this. And by the way, those previous attacks, the satellite imagery confirmed it. Not the US satellites, no, no, no, no, no, the Chinese based in Beidou confirmed that one. The Iranian confirmed that one because the imagery was provided to the Iranians by the Chinese. So the Iranian missiles did indeed reach their target, and we all were aware of it. Which means, you know what, if Iran actually used advanced, uh, hypersonic missiles as he claimed, or it used, that means it hits the target. So, and I'm going to show you the type of missiles that Iran used. We'll start with the first one is Uh, where is it? I, I did have a picture of it.

Really?

I thought I did. I really got the pictures of, uh, the— hold on a second, bear with me, guys. Uh, oh yeah, I moved them out to a different folder, so So bear with me, I'm gonna pull them out here from one other folder and put them for you because you need to see those ones here. And we're gonna do the one for, uh, especially the Fatah missile too. So let me put a picture for you about the missile that Iran used, Fatah, right there. Here we go. This is one of the missiles that Iran used. As I said, of course the US is going to have to deny this. Missile Fattah-2 was used. The other one that was used is none other than Khorramshahr-4. And you all know this is a— the pictures from when Iran used Khorramshahr to target locations in Kuwait. I'm just showing the picture. That's not what happened the location-wise. Location was in Jordan, in this base right here. But Iran used Khorramshahr. I have another picture of it right here. That's what Iran used, because US air defenses, or Jordanian defenses for that matter, cannot intercept them. Even though the Jordanians are saying, oh, we intercepted them, the US told Jordan to say what it needed to say. And this is where it becomes very trick— trickery or tricky to a degree as far as, oh, Dr. O, how can we believe what the IRGC is saying since there is no imagery for this? It's logical argument. I'm not denying that. But on the other hand, we've seen previously when, for example, Israel said, oh, we intercepted all Iran missiles here in Tel Aviv. Only to find out 2, 3 days later that the damage was extensive inside Tel Aviv is because the Iron Dome wasn't able to intercept. The same argument I will make about the case for Jordan base, the al-Sati base. That's exact argument I can make. I am waiting. I did reach out to some of my own sources regarding the imagery. Okay, here is why is this important for you to understand. Usually imagery, satellite images, that is, reveals more details. Nobody is denying this. And this is where two critics will argue, what, there is a problem with this picture, Dr. O? The satellite photos right now, there is none. How can we believe what the IRGC is saying? So, but did you think of this? And the argument I want to make based on my conversation with with the sources is that— did they ever occur to you that the US could impose— and I use the term carefully— could impose a ban on satellite imagery, even asking European not to distribute this kind of pictures from the Gulf region? Once again, I am using my background, professional one, in Washington for similar— to make similar arguments as to something like this. And I will not refute something like this, that the US could order some of its European, uh, states or allies or whatever term you want to use not to distribute those images regarding the Gulf. The same arguments when— remember when the war started and Iran fired at Dubai Airport, if I'm not mistaken? And what did the United Arab Emirates end up doing? They arresting people who are Distributing videos showing the mass damage that was caused. As a matter of fact, one Brit was arrested. This will be no different. But I am still waiting to see whether the Russians or the Chinese gonna release any imagery to confirm this. And I believe the Chinese will share that in due time. So, and this is why I strongly believe there is a major restriction in place now making it difficult for any satellite imagery or photo to circulate. And I do not know at this point how long it's going to take the Chinese or the Russians to leak this kind of information. They will eventually in due time. So all we can say right now is that the US and the Jordanian confor— uh, uh, sources confirm that, uh, the strike occurred But they won't want to show the damage and, and the other aspects of it. Now the next question will become with this is, did it change Washington calculus after the strike by the type of missiles Iran used to target the locations of where the F-35s are in Muafak Salti Air Base in Jordan? And it's legitimate question. It's legitimate question. So what I'm gonna do, I'm gonna play 3 clips for you. Those are short, once again to make a point, because I want you see it with your own— your own eyes, that is. And this one was recorded on July 30th, so take a listen, please.

Projectiles streak across the night sky over Jordan before smoke rises near buildings during a Iranian ballistic missile attack. The missiles were medium-range ballistic systems using inertial guidance with possible terminal corrections. The accompanying claim says a Jordanian air defense platform was destroyed. At least one impact or falling debris reaching the ground despite Jordan's layered defenses, including Patriot PAC-3 and shorter-range interceptors. In this—

okay, that's one. I'm gonna play a second clip for you, and again, all within the past few days. It's the same date from a different source.

Ballistic missiles are launched in quick success— multiple ballistic missiles are launched in quick succession, consistent with a coordinated IRGC Aerospace Force salvo. The launches are claimed to target U.S. military facilities in Jordan, particularly Muwafaq Salti Air Base, and U.S.-used bases in Kuwait, where rotational fighter aircraft, logistics hubs, and command facilities are located. The missiles appear consistent with solid-fuel Fateh family systems, which can be launched rapidly and use inertial guidance with possible terminal updates to strike fixed infrastructure.

And again, they're highlighting the use of the Fateh missile. Because we have nothing to intercept that one with. And the last one, as I'm just going to show you the clip, rather, it's highlight about the idea that Somin is saying, oh, Iran is running out of missiles. We've heard that argument, uh, something the clip proves otherwise. Take a, take a listen, please.

Said Iran was running out of missiles, but was that really true? For days, many believed Iran was running out of ballistic missiles, but a former senior Israeli air defense commander has challenged that narrative. According to his statement, Iran launched more than 50 ballistic missiles over an 11-day period during the conflict. He argued that if Iran had truly been close to exhausting its missile stockpile, it would have been difficult to maintain launches at that pace, especially while knowing that Israel's air defense systems were on high alert and ready to respond. However, the exact size of Iran's remaining missile inventory is not publicly known, and independent experts caution that neither side has released complete information. As a result, claims about how many missiles Iran has left remain difficult to verify. Every—

well, I will have to challenge the assertion of that former defense official that the Israeli defense system ready to respond No, you just want to justify for domestic consumption that we do have, meaning we in this case the Israelis, we do have a system that will intercept. No, nothing can intercept this so far, and Iranians have proved it. Otherwise, why did Israel didn't intercept Khorramshahr-4 back then when it targeted Ben-Gurion and caused massive destruction inside Tel Aviv? So that's why I always say pay attention to what's been said versus what the reality is. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda, just the stories they don't want you to know. Don't watch from the sideline, be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive. Thank you. So now when we think about this, uh, this, uh, uh, the hit on in Jordan on July 30th and on August 1st. No, that's when Trump usually was, you know, blabbing about, you know, we're gonna destroy, we're gonna beat Iran, and so forth. But that's not the reason I want to mention this. I want to mention this within the context of the U.S.-Saudi strike on pro-Iranian militia in Iraq because that happens around the same time. And by July 31st, August 1st, US officials were planning a fresh wave of strikes on Iran as soon as the weekend, because that was what Donald Trump was planning on. Because what did he say? Wanted to target the infrastructure. What he didn't realize is that the Iranian, by going and attacking the locations of the F-35, They were preemptively acting. That's one of the reasons that pushed Donald Trump to back down. The media here in the US will have you believe that it's the deal that the Saudis trying to sort of present by de-escalating. Saudis are so freaking scared because the Houthis vow they will destroy Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. And if there is no oil in Saudi Arabia, what's left of Saudi Arabia? Nothing. Nothing. As a matter of fact, there's a whole— the entire Gulf regions. Let me put them— let me put up the map for you. This entire region, if it weren't for oil, there would be nothing. I don't know what they're gonna do. There is nothing. There is no industry. There is no I mean, what do they produce? Literally, it's the oil that allowed them to import everything from outside the world. So, but this is where you have to understand the Trump backing down as of August 2nd, which was yesterday. That's why he canceled the planned attack. But what the media is going to tell you is, oh, this is contingent upon reaching a deal that the Saudis, uh, sort of, uh, have been working on behind the scenes. Because what MBS wants to do, he wants to push for de-escalation as a driver. That's bull, that's nonsense, that's a lie. It's because MBS himself found out When he engaged Ansarullah back then, he couldn't defeat them. And now that Ansarullah promised they will destroy the Saudi oil infrastructure, he's rushing into trying to convince Donald Trump for a deal. Second, MBS is seeing what's going on in Jordan right now. As a matter of fact, some countries inside the Gulf, including Qatar, there are some prominent academicians, analysts, advisors to the government, are pushing the Qatari governments into negotiating with Iran. Not with the US, with Iran. They're not going to report this, and I have it on good authority. That is what's going on behind closed doors. And as a matter of fact, to highlight to you the importance of this, Oman, the little country of Oman— let me, let me put, see if you can see it on the map right there, tiny, tiny one on the right side of United Arab Emirates— Oman, do you know that Oman now is negotiating with Iran as to the management of the Strait of Hormuz? And what the media wants to say, they wanted to include that as part of what MBS is doing. That's a lie. The negotiations between Oman and Iran have nothing to do with what MBS wanted to de-escalate and what the US is claiming. Because what the US, the reporting coming out of Washington saying that MBS is pushing for de-escalation as a driver and progress has been reported in Oman-mediated talk on the Strait of Hormuz management. No, no, that management for the Strait of Hormuz is between Iran and Oman, have nothing to do with the US or Saudi Arabia. But the Americans, the Washington, Trump, whatever, wants to take credit for all those talks between Oman and Iran are on the final stages. So, and if you are to say this, why did Jordan push for de-escalation? Because they can't. Jordan is told what to do. It's no different than Qatar, is no different than United Arab Emirates, it's no different than Kuwait, Bahrain, uh, uh, and, and, and even Saudi Arabia. And that is why I need you to understand where this is going. So because the actual pullback 4 days after the attacks, what the media wants you to believe is this tied to the Saudi diplomatic pressure. It is not. It is not. It is not. It has to do with the strike on the F-35s itself. And once again, I was inside the rooms back then in Washington. We know how these scenarios play out and what will be reported to the media— the unclassified version of whatever we were discussing inside. So of course they're gonna want you to believe, oh, the target on the destruction of the F-35 doesn't matter, 1 or 3 or 9 or 10, what It suffices to say that the hangar was attacked, which usually hangars, as you know, they are covered. And, you know, it tells you the precision of the information Iran has. And how did Iran acquire that? It's no secret anymore. Both the Russians and the Chinese are providing Iran, especially the Russians with the ISR, the, the, the intelligence surveillance recon, and the Chinese with the satellite imagery of the target using Beidou, because Beidou is far more accurate than GPS. So, and that is where they want to play with this. So that's all I'm going to say about this one here because I got more things to cover here. So now let's— and that is part of why the logical question that I asked yesterday after confirming certain information is that Did these attacks alter Washington's calculation and prompt Trump to back down? And once again, most of the sources that I reached out to, whatever they said, oh no, Dr. O, this has nothing to do— I say, come on, come on. And I understand your position, you won't be able to disclose this and this and that. I understand that and I respect it, and I will not push for that. But at the same time, I've been around. I sat on that chair you are sitting now, so I know how things work. So don't just feed me whatever. And if you don't want to answer, that's fine, and I respect you, and we still remain friends. So, and that is, again, you have to take into consideration the strike on July 30th, the strike on August 1st on F-35s hangars inside Jordan. So this is why first the US was escalatory, the, the, the, the response per se. So because what Trump did say, oh, I vow to hit Iran hard, you know. And that is why the Saudis joined an operation with the, with the Americans to target the, uh, the Iranian pro-militia in Iraq. And by July 31st and August 1st all of a sudden things have changed. No, because the actual pullback came yesterday, and as of yesterday I was confirming the information about the July 30th and August 1st. So, and that is why they want to overlap— they, mainstream media, wants to overlap the information by injecting, inserting that, oh, a man-mediated talks on the Strait of Hormuz management, that's what led us to all this. No, no, no, it's not true. So now the next question we need to ask is, how might this outcome now change the trajectory of the war? So, so if they are talking about— because what you're going to be hearing coming out of Washington is that, oh, there is this rapidly reached deal actually materialized. If ever. I mean, come on, we've been covering this for almost since February, you know. Are you going to trust what the Americans say? Even the Americans signed the MOU and didn't honor it. What makes you think when they say, oh, this is rapidly reaching a deal that could materialize? No, because if it is, I'm going to use the term if this ever materialize. And if it does, it could be— it will mark really a genuine inflection point in the war. But again, using history as my guide, I'm gonna fall back to April. What happened with that ceasefire? I'm gonna back— I'm gonna go back to June MOU, Memorandum of Understanding. What happened back then? Both of them broke down. That ceasefire thing broke down. And this is again where you have to think in terms of where this is going. The one thing you need to focus on is the idea, the key variable, and that is durability. In this case, from Iran's perspective, not the US. We run into serious issues here economically, militarily, the shortage of the ammo of the missiles and the rising tensions inside the Gulf states that the population and the government start saying the presence of American forces is a liability. And I have it on a good authority, someone deep inside the government in Qatar, that is what he is advising his government. In the case of, uh, Jordan, Jordan can do— Jordan depends on money, depends. Jordan's survival depends on the donation we give them from here, on yearly donation that we give. We give them about a billion dollar a day, you know, our tax dollars, you know. And this is again where you have to think about what Trump is saying. And, and because what Trump is doing with this— Trump is keeping some sort of the strike option loaded on the table and ready rather than standing down. That's right there, it should give you an idea. So it's because that's a, that's, that's a different posture, if I may use the term, than, than if we are to think about it as a ceasefire. No, no, because what it functions as, it functions more as a deadline with the some sort of suspended air campaign hanging over it, which means we can resume air campaign anytime, which means what? It will give Washington leverage in, in negotiations. That's the thinking in Washington. Good luck with that. Iranians reached the point where you cannot trust the Americans under no circumstances whatsoever. Plus, Iran has proved now that the mighty American will not be able to defeat Iran. Things have changed, and that is one of the things I'm going to be talking to you towards the end for that announcement I want to make. So Now the next question that we ought to ask is, what can the Gulf states learn from this? It's a legitimate question. You think about all those countries now— Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Jordan, Egypt to a degree, but Egypt is, Egypt is not a Gulf state, it's in Africa. So even though they always want to associate themselves with with Middle East? No, it's not. It's in Africa. Simple as that. The clearest lesson— and again, I'm basing this on my experience, and I've argued this few months ago— because here's the clearest lesson, is that hosting US military infrastructure has become now a direct liability, not just the turn umbrella because the US couldn't. And, and if, if those countries think that the US is going to fight on their behalf, they are mistaken. That's what I'm saying. If it weren't for oil, those probably— those countries will be herding camels the entire day. No offense to them, and I am not putting them down. I am stating the facts. If it weren't for oil, we won't be talking about those countries. They won't even exist on the map. Like, politically speaking, they will exist there, but what will they be? Just some nomads lost in some desert of sorts. And again, and I'm not being mean, you know, I'm being realistic. You look at the deserts there and all that stuff, what all you see? What they're gonna do if they weren't for oil and what have you? There would be nothing. And that is the reality they are coming to right now. So because what the attack on the Muwafaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, because it has been hit repeatedly since February, missiles, drones, even the missiles from Iran damaged the THAAD radars, 2 or 3 US personnel killed in July. And the reason for it is because that particular location is a FOB, is a Forward Operating Base for American operations against Iran. So when you have Jordan, you have Bahrain, you have Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, all of them would absorb and have absorbed the strikes in, in the past few months. And despite this, saying, well, we are not part of, of this fight against Iran— no, no, no, no, you are, you are, if you're allowing your territory to be used as a launching pad. Simple as that. Because what, what it means, that's a live demonstration right now to every Gulf state or capital, whatever term you want to use, that proximity, proximity to US power by hosting the base, by allowing this, whatever pertains to American military, hosting that US power projection now carries measurable kinetic risks regardless of the host state's own posture towards the era. This is why now Jordan is exposed. Saudis are exposed too, because what the Saudis won't want to disclose to you is the two air bases. And I'm not sharing anything that is classified, by the way. If you know where to look, you'll find that there is a base called Bandar bin Sultan Air Base that's near Riyadh. The Saudis are— all the Americans are there. Same with Qatar, Al Udeid. Same with Kuwait. My units still rotate today in that country. Same with Bahrain. So that is again where the difference is. Despite what the host country is saying, oh, we are not attacking Iran, but you are allowing and facilitating the operations. And this is why you're seeing Saudi Arabia in this week trying to de-escalate. They want to de-escalate because the fear of what Ansarullah is going to do to them. And Ansarullah, by the way, announced that they are ready. And trust me, knowing what I know, they will destroy all the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, especially in Yanbu. Let me put the map for you right there. It's within reach of all the missiles Ansarullah have. The same with Jizan, same with Abha, same with Jeddah ports. All those are within reach. That is why the Saudis, they saw what happened in Jordan. They don't want to be next. Why? Because you have to think about the population inside Saudi Arabia. They could turn, even though it's unlikely, but you have to remember You have to remember Wahhabism deal with the monarchy in Saudi Arabia. The Wahhabism and the monarchy, put them together. To those who know, and if you had a chance to read my book, I wrote an entire chapter about the deal between Wahhabism and the Al Saud monarchy. So Saudis are factoring, we better get ahead of this. Before it's too late. So that's why this de-escalation has nothing to do with, oh, we just want to reach a deal. No, no, no, no, no. It's the fear. It's the fear. This is why you have other Gulf states now actively working this diplomatic track all of a sudden. Why? Because they want to pull Washington from the broader energy infrastructure strikes because they know what the consequences will be. Did you know what will happen if Iran attacks the water desalination locations in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and all that? Did you know what will happen to those Gulf states if Iran attacks their grid systems? Those countries will cease to exist. And I'm not saying to exaggerate here. Remember, it's the hot summer in that part of the world.. And can you imagine with no air conditioning, with nothing, and no revenues because the oil infrastructure will be destroyed? So, and this is why they want to have you— they want, they want you to believe that the Saudis are acting on this. There is another angle to this, and that angle, once again, and I'm going to share an excerpt for, for you, a video rather, from my book pertaining to this. The— and that pertains to the question whether the US is propping up Saudis as the hegemon in the Middle East. Good luck with that. Saudis can't do squat about it. Saudis can't produce anything, and I'm gonna tell you why that is. So, and this is why the Saudis are calculating that a full-scale campaign by the US against Iran in conjunction with Israel is going to result in Iran and Ansarullah attacking oil, all Gulf oil infrastructure, including those of Saudi Arabia. Gulf infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and the shipping. Because remember, as of now, no Saudi ship can cross the Red Sea. Still stands no matter what they have you believe. 20 ships, to my knowledge, according to my sources, have returned back to their location, Yanbu. And we're not gonna see the results of this now. The revenue will be felt next year's budget. Now just think about it. Add to that if the Ansarullah goes ahead and destroy the oil infrastructure in Yanbu. And that's exactly what the Saudis, uh, are thinking about. That's why you are hearing what you are hearing. So, so you think about this deeper engagement, diplomatic, with Tehran, but this diplomatic, uh, engagement with Tehran came only from one country And that country is Oman. Now the Saudis are trying to do it in a subtle way. Iranians are not naive. They know what the Saudis have done behind closed doors to allow certain operations against Iran to be launched from the Saudi soil. So because the US relies on its bases, on, on its bases in those countries including Saudi Arabia. And that is why Iranians are seeing it as a full alignment with Washington, not a full accommodation. So, and this is again where you have to think, what is the calculations of Washington? Is US trying to prop up Saudi Arabia to be the next regional hegemon?

Yeah.

And if it is, it's not clear to me. It might not be clear by design. But at the same time, when I see— I've been around this kind of developments, I was in the thick of it— when I see something like this, I see the effect is trending, moving forward in that direction. So this is why the US now somehow is leaning on Saudi Arabia to broker de-escalation with Iran. The US tried Qatar at some point, but if you notice, the US will not reach out to United Arab Emirates because Iran does not trust United Arab— doesn't trust any of them. But we all know the back dealings between Israel and United Arab Emirates. So, and that is why you're gonna have to think in terms why the US is deepening its security and economic ties with, uh, the Saudi Arabia. As a matter of fact, we are now going to be allowing nuclear technology transfers to Saudi Arabia. So think about it. And that makes you wonder, why will the Saudis join the Americans in attacking, uh, uh, the Iran-backed militia in Iraq? All this reinforces that Saudi Arabia, as the— according to Washington, as the indispensable Gulf mediator. No, Saudis stand no chance in that because they are wishy-washy. You can't trust any of those Gulf states. And with all my respect, my utmost respect to the Arab and Muslim world, can't trust them. There is a saying in Arabic that goes, "Ittafak al-Arabo ala al-Ittafak." Arabs agree not to agree. They'll say one thing and do the opposite. It's no different than Americans. You can't trust, you can't trust them. But at the same time, you're gonna have to think about the strategic calculus in Washington. And that strategic calculus is a deliberate move into trying to install Saudi Arabia as the hegemon, which stand no chance. Stand No chance, because what the US thinking is, oh, we killed the late Ali Khamenei, that means Iran has diminished. No, no, it didn't. Remember, Donald Trump is saying, oh, we degraded all Iran's naval. That's, that's a bull. No, we did not, liar. You know, the guy is inherently a liar. What a shame for a president of a country to be a liar at the same time. So that's why I don't buy what they're saying about, oh, we degraded this and all that. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's because there is the concerted effort between three— US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia— to work to balance up regional balance of power, if I may. You know, and you think about Egypt and Turkey, they're trying to position themselves to fill the vacuum. No, those two are— you can't trust them either. No, no. In the case of Saudi Arabia, is because it has the financial weight. That's the only reason, you know. That is the only reason. But at the same time, it's not going to succeed. So because if you think about it structurally, the Saudis have the real assets. You know, you think about financial, you think about OPEC leverage and so forth. Yeah, but this is not going to cut it because what Iran has demonstrated, like I mentioned earlier, back then when I wrote the Iran book, I mentioned about the next decade we will see a rewiring of the global order. In that part of the world. Saudi Arabia will not be in a position to do so. That's why they are moving into this direction, you know, because the limits on the Saudis are real. Saudi Arabia has no track record of successful military power projection. And if I am to remind you, just think about Yemen, because Yemen remained the cautionary tale. Imbiyas, when he took over, oh, I'm gonna send my military to Yemen, I will destroy Ansarullah. He had to run back with the, with the tail between his legs and trying to ask third party to tell the Ansarullah will be willing to negotiate. And if you think about the Saudis, what is this economy depend on?

Oil.

That's it. If there is no oil, there will be no— as a matter of fact, when I wrote the Saudi book, I ended the book with one sentence, and I know some might not like that sentence. And the way I argued is that if it weren't for oil, we won't call it Saudi Arabia, we just call it Arabia. Yeah, it's the truth, and I don't shy away from disclosing the truth. And that is where those limits are. So, and Iran— I'm sorry, Saudi Arabia will have— it's different. It's because that hegemon is going to require hard power. It might have the ideological or the religious mobilization, and this is where Wahhabism comes in, but you have to understand the deal that was cut behind closed doors from way back in the 1930s between Al Saud, when we propped them up for power, and Wahhabism religious clerics, which still stand till today. So, and this is not about Sunni-Shiite stuff, that's, that's, that's a separate conversation altogether. Saudis are also constrained by United Arab Emirates. Why? Because United Arab Emirates is backed by Israel. Because they're regional, they're both competing for regional ambitions. Yeah, which means what? When you think about a hegemon, that means in this case, this hegemonic status will require all Gulf states, yeah, all of them, to accept Saudi Arabia primary, which by the way Qatar will not accept it. United Arab Emirates has already resisted it. So Saudis, no, no, they just, they just reacting to whatever, reacting out of fear that their oil infrastructure will be destroyed by Ansarullah. So here is what I wrote back in when I, uh, when I wrote the Saudi book. To those who have a copy, you will know. The gross domestic product, GDP, fuels the economic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As of 2017, that's when I was writing the book at the time, Iran GDP was about— is about $1.6 trillion according to IMF. Put those statistics in the context of the Iran-Saudi rivalry, and one concludes that Saudi Arabia has valid concerns about Iran. The data demonstrates how Iran is poised for regional hegemony in the greater Middle East. That reality is shaking the Al Saud dynasty to its core. Readers must understand that the best understanding of Middle East geopolitics, particularly the Saudi-Iran rivalry, comes in terms of economic outlook and regional hegemony. Yet Sunnis and Shiites coexisted peacefully for centuries. Both Islamic sects share similar core belief and worship the same God. I continue on this, that Saudi Saudi Arabia's ill-conceived economic and political policies are failing. The considerable cost associated with its ongoing war in Yemen is further contributing to its decline. Saudi Arabia does not know what to do. It failed miserably when it decided to pursue a military misadventure against the Houthis, whom Iran supports. Now Saudi Arabia is convinced that the time has come for it to enter into some form of political negotiations to end the conflict. Moreover, that will certainly confirm Iran's growing regional hegemony. Welcome to the new geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in which Iran captains the Middle East political game while the Saudis watch from the sideline. That was my argument back then and still holds. This is what I need you to understand, where these dynamics are going. So, and this leads me to the last question, and the last question is, I mentioned at the beginning, why should you care? Why should you care? Because this isn't just a story about Jordan being hit or Iran launching missiles. No, It's a preview of how the next global order now gets decided with Iran at the center of it. If a Gulf state can now talk Washington off of a strike that was locked and loaded, no, no, no, no, no. To some, I think, of it, that's a fundamental shift in who holds leverage over American military decisions in the region. And if US bases scattered across allied territory keeps absorbing missiles meant for someone else, that's a cost every country hosting American forces from Jordan to Japan is quietly recalculating right now. That is what the alliance strain actually looks like in real time. This is not a, this is not a think tank report. This is a fact, and that's my point. I want you to understand that. I told you at the beginning I have an announcement for you, and that has to do with the shift in the direction of this channel. So, and again, it's because I— you are part of this, and your opinion matters to me, by the way, regarding whatever the shift. And I am going to put a survey questions regarding to this, and I always value your insights and inputs and suggestions and what have you. The reason is I wanted to shift the direction because I need to reach a global audience, because I need people to start to grasp where things are headed. You can't just rely on a headline. Because for years this channel has put— sort of been about going deep. I always go deep into the issues, long-form breakdowns of alliance fractures, defense, economics, finance, and the structural shift reshaping the global power. So, and that won't change, by the way, in the channel. But the world isn't slowing down long enough to wait for, let's say, for 4 minutes or 1 hour, whatever time it takes me to do this. No, no, no, I'm just gonna add something new. And now what I wanted to add is some sharp analysis that I will be doing, like the one I released on Sunday. Those are sharp analyses that's gonna be on the strategic developments that actually move the needle. It get delivered faster to you delivered straightforward and without noise. And here is why this matters to me personally. My background isn't just an academic theory. Yes, I do hold a PhD in international security and so forth. Yes, international relations, geopolitics, foreign policy, and so forth are the, the core of my academic background.

No, no, no.

And it's not even my years spent working the foreign internal defense, the regional security issues in Washington.

No.

Because I watched, I watched, I was in the middle of how decisions got made and where the gap between official narrative and reality tends to open up. And that experience is the lens that I bring to you, that I bring to everybody. So, so, and I want to put it to work more often, not just in the occasional deep dive, live stream, or analysis. So the goal is simple. So what I want to help the community understand what's actually happening and what's likely coming next before the headline catch up to it. No, not spin, not talking points. It's just a clear analysis and read on the moment, and that one drawn from my real experiences and delivered in a format that respects your time, like exactly what I did yesterday. To those who have not seen that video, uh, uh, you need to do that because what is going to be is going to be more focused, more frequent. Same independence and same honesty. Of course, it just— it will be faster a little bit. That is what— that's, that's the next direction I'm taking the channel towards. And have you ever wondered, you know, how come we are limited in the subscriber account? Makes you just wonder. So, uh, uh, to those who have not seen the video yesterday Here is the link to which you can go and look it up or watch it, whatever. It's a brief analysis, and that's exactly what I'm going to be doing. All right, here is my conclusion for you before I'll play 3 key clips for you. So whether or not Iran actually destroyed the F-35s matters less than what happened next. So, you know, even what the US, the whole blah blah, we are ready to destroy we're going to conduct the harshest strikes and all that. No, no, no, because Tehran didn't blink. And it's not because, uh, uh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia stepped in in coordination with the US. No, no, no, because that's not a ceasefire, it's a pause, that's all. And that pause is held together by a deal that hasn't even been signed yet. So, so this is exactly the kind of regional and policy terrain I draw on from, uh, uh, for the advisory and my speaking work outside this channel. So I just want you to know, and I'm always glad to talk through what's specific relevant to whomever interested, especially for entities, uh, with, with invest major investments in that part of the world. So I want to leave you with this question, uh, that I would like you to answer: are we watching now Saudi Arabia earn a seat at the region's power broker, or just buying Washington's time before the next escalation? Simple as that. So make sure you drop me, uh, some comments in the comment section, and I read them all, by the way. Just, I want you to know. All right, let me play the first clip for you. And I was Saudi Arabia. That's the first clip I'm gonna be playing for you here. Let me upload it. Okay, this is interesting because if we are to think, and that's why I'm saying it's not about the Saudis, yes, they'll coordinate with the Americans, whatever, but still they are so concerned about what's— what might happen with the Houthis. So take a listen.

To be photographed with America's Secretary of State, and if that doesn't stop you right there, it should. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince refused to be photographed with America's Secretary of State, and if that doesn't stop you right there, it should. Marco Rubio flew thousands of miles to the Middle East on what can only be described as a begging tour asking Gulf nations, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, to please keep American military bases on their soil. And MBS, the crown prince who has historically rolled out the red carpet for US officials, wouldn't give Rubio a single photo op, not one. That's not a snub, that's a verdict. Because while Rubio was scrambling through the Gulf, something much larger was already taking shape without him. Qatar announced that Gulf states and Iran are now actively negotiating their own regional security framework, a new architecture specifically designed to reduce dependence on Washington and replace decades of US military dominance with direct regional cooperation. Think about what that actually means. The countries that have housed American troops and sheltered under the US security umbrella for gener—

And that's what I said to you earlier. My sources indicate the individual inside Qatar has been advising his government this is the right course of action. And I know for a fact, once US troops are out, Iran will not— Iran will not attack any country in the region. I know this for a fact. Next one is the Saudi, I think, base Yes, this is up, up, up, up. Sorry, that's not the same one. Uh, sorry guys, let me, let me copy this and paste here. No, I didn't do the right one. Oh man, I thought I had it. Let me see if I still have that one. Maybe I deleted it. Hold on a second, please. Uh, I— come on, no, not this one. It was, it was, it was very crucial, very, very crucial one. Uh, that's not this one. Just bear with me, guys, because I, I, I know I saved it. I, I save certain things Not this one. And, uh, this one here maybe. Okay, man, I thought I had it. Where did it go? No, not this one. Genuine. Okay, not this one, uh, not this one. Okay, if I don't find it, guys, look for it, uh, next time. I'll do live stream for you. Let's, let's move on with the next one. Uh, the next one is about North Korea, and this my— oh, it's not going to surprise you, but you need to understand aspects. And I mentioned this on many occasions, uh, on many occasions, and, and I just want you to hear it for yourself.

Why will the United States never dare to touch North Korea? Because North Korea has something so powerful that even some of the world's top militaries don't have, and it has the potential to wipe out entire cities within minutes. And no, it's not what you think. First is the KN-23, a short-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 690 kilometers. This missile is specifically designed to strike US allies such as South Korea and Japan. But wait until you find out about North Korea's real weapon. Next is the Pukguksong-2, with a range of up to 1,200 kilometers, enough to cover all of Japan. Then comes the Hwasong-12, with a range of around 4,500 kilometers. This was North Korea's first missile capable of hitting an important US military base in Guam. But that's still not North Korea's most dangerous missile. Next is the Hwasong-15, an intercontinental ballistic missile with an estimated range of around 13,000 kilometers. It was the first North Korean missile believed to be capable of reaching much of the US mainland. And finally comes the Hwasong-17. It is North Korea's largest and most powerful missile. In theory, it can reach almost anywhere in the continental United States, including New York, Washington, Miami, Houston, and Los Angeles. Why will the—

Very interesting. And that's why I always say, uh, the US, we know it back then, back in 1993, 1994, when they moved into that direction, 1996. They got enough fissile material and so forth. And from that point forward, I knew, we knew, uh, uh, they focused one of the type of missiles, to my knowledge, that will be within, within minutes, it will wipe out 35,000 US troops in South Korea. So that's, uh, uh, oh, by the way, I did find the other clip, so I'm gonna share it with you right Here, very, very interesting. Take a lesson, please. There we go.

Saudi Arabia agrees to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif to US for Iran operations. And before we get into this story, I just want to send a message to my brothers and sisters in Saudi Arabia. If this takes place, America won't be able to save you. Israel won't be able to save you. None of the Gulf countries will be able to save you. The hell that your government is about to bring down on your country will be solely the responsibility of the government and solely the responsibility of your silence to the government's actions and behaviors that would have led to the consequences that you all may face in the future. Now that that disclaimer is out of the way, let's get into the story. It's being reported that Saudi Arabia agreed to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif to American forces for operations against Iran, multiple US and Western officials told Middle East Eye on Friday. The base in western Saudi Arabia— and we will get to western Saudi Arabia soon— the base in western Saudi Arabia was selected as it lies farther from Iranian drone and missile threats. Now I want y'all to see Taif and Mecca on the map. This makes me think that not only Does the government of Saudi Arabia want to rain down chaos on the citizens of—

Yeah, it's very interesting when you consider, uh, I don't know if I have it on the map here, you won't see a Thai— yeah, right there, Taif. When you look at Taif right there, what it is. So, and, and this is where I see the stupidity of the Saudi government, uh, when first they attacked the Iranian plane that landed in, in Sana'a about 2, 3 weeks ago. And this is why this fear now, because they know Ansarullah said they will, they will destroy that infrastructure. So I won't trust what the Saudis are saying. So, and that's all I have to share with you. Next time I will, uh, I have, uh, I will share some other ones. So I want to take this opportunity first of all to say thank you to, uh, 3 individuals bought me cups of teas in support of, uh, of cups of— yeah, a couple of teas in support of my upcoming trip to Asia. Uh, Carmel21, thank you so much. And you wrote, and I quote, a small contribution for your trip to Asia. Thank you so much, uh, Carmel. I truly appreciate you for that. Another person is someone— usually I have the screen name, we'll just say the screen name contact, we'll leave it at that out of respect for the person. Uh, uh, thank you for your, uh, uh, for your— for buying me cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. You wrote, and I quote, hope you reach your funding goal soon. We're working on it, we're working on it. So another individual from Down Under I'm not gonna say the first name, I'll say someone, because I don't have the permission to do so. You wrote, keep up your great work, Dr. O. Cheers from Australia. Thank you so much for your support of my upcoming Asia trip. So let me, let me put an update for where we are with the, with the upcoming trip to Asia. And, uh, oh, here, here's the link for it, and I'm going to share a picture with you to show you where the fundraising is. As of today, we are about $6989. Remember, I have to reach $7500 for that donor to match, uh, dollar for dollar up to $1,000. So, so the quicker we reach that level the donor will be able to match that one because I know this donor with great integrity. They're not gonna— he or she is not gonna just say this for the sake of sounding whatever. They've done it before and I'm sure they'll do it again. So just want you to know, the sooner we reach $7,500, the quicker we get the match dollar for dollar. And that will allow me to go ahead and start booking everything I need to, because once again, if I do not reach the, the, the funding goal, then I might have to just postpone the trip till some other time. But as to the trip, I will do it because I gave you my word for that one. So, uh, to those who want to support the channel, here is the link for it. And again, like I said, I'm gonna send you a survey question about your take regarding the direction for the channel, and I'd love to have your insights about this. So, so please make sure to share the channel with others and hit the like, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.