Trump Spooked as IRGC Unveiled dual-use SLV, Deployed Ghadir Mini-Subs & Hinted at Tactical Nukes!

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Here is what's going on. While the world watches the ceasefire headlines that they are collap— they have collapsed and so forth, Iran was quietly showing off a submarine fleet and hinting at a nuclear bomb okay, and firing, believe it or not, a $2 million missile that is bankrupting US air defenses, $1 at a time. So the next, next logical question will be, why should you care about this development? Really, what's in it for you? Why would you even want to spend the next hour sitting here listening to what I have to share with you about about this development. And that's exactly what I'm going to be focusing my analysis about, providing you the answer for this. So first, we're going to think in terms of sudden surprise of Donald Trump as Iran sort of prepare its, uh, uh, uh, uh, SLV, Space Launch Vehicle rockets. Makes you just wonder. The US at the same time One, a lot of people wondering what's behind Donald Trump's halting the bombing of Iran. Of course, majority will go automatically, I don't know, something Iran is preparing that Donald Trump, his intelligence agencies have told him. Well, if the intelligence agencies have told him, especially the locations in Jordan that have been bombed— by the way, Iran's bombing in Jordan wasn't about just the base, It was also about the Central Intelligence Agency's locations. So, but the first narrative that's coming out of Washington, and I was, uh, tracking the story, uh, yesterday and this morning prior to coming on the air, is that the idea that the munition depletion is real, is real. But there are those who wants to minimize this by saying, oh, that's not the trigger for it, it's not the whole story. And that's why Donald Trump administration itself, it says, oh, we have a lot of stockpile. But some others are admitting that it is a lot of stockpile that is depleting as we speak. So even though the statements coming out of certain places in the Pentagon Think tanks, they are affiliated with the US government and so forth. They say, oh, we have everything we need. But that's not the truth, because when you have General Cain— is this guy right here next to Hegseth— he's the one who's at least flagging now the issue of the US munition stockpile as a concern. So, but of course the administration is not going to admit to this. And again, what I want to focus in this analysis here is to provide you the big picture as to what Iran is doing at the same time the US is halting, uh, these attacks on Iran. And that is, again, you think about Trump posing the campaign— well, uh, sort of, you have now certain, uh, media inside the US that trying to get some leaks from insiders inside the White House that the military commanders, US that is, they're saying that they are running out of targets. Yeah, while Kane, the General Kane, General Kane, that is the, the gentleman right there, General Kane separately raised that concern about the depleted air defense weapons systems. And why is this important? Because these air defense systems, it's what's protecting US bases in the region, which we all know what happened to them. And that is why now you have whispers inside the Pentagon. And again, I checked on this this morning. I spent about an hour and a half, uh, making some calls and just trying to figure out exactly whatever allowed by law they could share with you. They can't share classified stuff with me because, you know, everybody is going to be in legally in trouble. I'm And I wouldn't want to listen to that anyway. I, uh, I know better. So, but at least the conversations you have— it— the conversations I checked on and the information is that the whispers inside the Pentagon are admitting sort of that the 12 or 13 nights of strikes bumped up against real logistical ceilings, meaning We've reached the end. Ceiling of what? Of the interceptor stocks for base defense in particular. Because remember, that's why I always keep this map here for reference for you to, to know. All those countries in the Gulf, we have bases there. As a matter of fact, Qatar has the largest base, US base in the region. Yeah, Qatar. So makes you wonder. And that is why which is the kind of admission the mainstream framing tends to bury, uh, that they want to bury it under so-called diplomatic language. This is why you're going to find it very fascinating during this live stream, because I'm going to use some language, uh, quoting certain language that is how they manipulate the domestic audience. A lot of people might not know how to read between the lines. And that's exactly why the Pentagon, the, the, this kind of admissions, uh, that they won't want the mainstream media. And even, even if they tell the mainstream media, they're gonna ask the mainstream media to frame it so they can sort of push it through. Oh, it's diplomatic language. That's— but one thing is certain, that Donald Trump didn't stop the bombing because And he wanted peace. Donald Trump is not for peace. It's not. Taco is not, will never be, because he has no choice. He is ordered. Remember what I told you, President of the United States has no power, has no power. He's a servant of some entity of sort. And I'm telling you this based on fact. Ask anyone who either worked in Washington, was inside the intel community, or was inside the military within the Pentagon and so forth. And I've been inside on both sides. So he wanted to stop the bombing because first of all, Iran is disclosing, uh, some information about certain types of weapons. That's one, and I'm gonna share with you two or three types. It'll make more sense to you.

Third—

a second, I'm sorry, second is when Iran made the statement that the homeland, US, will not be spared. And the third one, of course, because the US is running out of missiles to fire. And Iran knew it. Now, there are those who will say, well, Dr. O, Iran does not have the capabilities for long-range ICBMs. It might be, it might not be. I am not a scientist in nuclear physics to understand the kinds of— whether they have or not. What I do know for a fact is that they are preparing this particular types of, uh, space launch vehicle rocket. That's Qasid, and I'll get into that in a second. Makes you just wonder, why will they preparing it right now? Preparing it for what? So I'm gonna play a clip for you, uh, this one to highlight to you. And again, you're smart enough, and I trust your judgment that you that you will know whether it's because the ammo or it's because the, the, the, the recent targets that Iran destroyed or something else. You decide for yourself. Take a listen, please. Oh, I didn't even share it yet. Sorry. Okay, take a listen.

And admirals just delivered an urgent warning that escalating against Iran would drag America into an existential World War III nightmare We cannot win. Iran has already surgically destroyed dozens of US radar systems, Patriot interceptors, aircraft hangars, and bases across Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and the UAE. Hundreds of billions in losses in just two weeks, leaving us critically short on the very munitions needed to fight push harder and Russia plus China step in fully, fusing the Middle East war with Ukraine after that Caspian Sea strike on an Iranian ship while our Gulf security umbrella collapses and the homeland sits exposed. That's why Trump paused the bigger strikes for now, even as Netanyahu races to Washington with fresh nuclear claims and the New York Times soft-pedals the true scale. Campaign trail Trump vowed he'd never start World War III. Instead, he created the exact conditions for it with an underqualified Joint Chiefs chairman and war crimes piling up while China and Russia openly back Iran. We're cooked if this spirals further.

She's spot on, and that's exactly which I'll get into in a second. I'll talk about what happened in the Caspian Sea. Remember yesterday I mentioned to you about the possibility of a third front, the Caspian, you know, something happened. So with Ukraine makes you just wonder once again, is Ukraine being used as a bait for this? And as a matter of fact, the, uh, what's his name, the comedian guy, uh, he's here in Washington and tomorrow he's meeting today, I think today with, with, with, uh, with Trump. And tomorrow Trump will meet with, with, with Netanyahu. So, so we, we'll get into Ukraine about what they did to Iran in a second here. So, but just to go back to my point about the, uh, arguments that Washington is making— oh, we, we are not running out of ammo or missiles or what have you— even by treating this as purely a supply problem. You know why? Because they circulating this kind of argument. And don't think this is, uh, this is manipulation, because by circulating this as a problem, he lets Washington off the hook for the strategic miscalculation that he end up in. That is why you have some officials coming and framing the pause from continuing the bombing, framing the pause as the bombing having run its course. Like, no, no, because here is the thing: Iran's firm grip on the Strait, which is basically what they are saying, meaning they— those officials— is a polite way of saying that the campaign, the attack, the bombing, the strikes on Iran, all that, didn't achieve the objective, and Washington is out of runway. So that is what it is. I mean, even Iran— ask, ask, ask those in charge in Iran They are not buying this diplomatic, uh, sort of gloss either. And how could you? Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson, here is what he said yesterday, and I had to verify his statements and I translated it to English to make sure and checked on the accuracy of the translation to make sure. Here is what I said word for word, and I quote: What exists at present cannot be called a ceasefire, end of quote. And let that sink in. And he continued by saying that Iran will, will defend itself for as long as its interests are in, in, in, in jeopardy. And all this means, why, means one thing, that Iran explicitly reject this idea that the US gets to dictate the tempo of the war and peace. In other words, when we want to fight, we want to strike Iran, we'll do it. If when we want peace, we will do it, our own choosing. Iran is saying forget about it. That's why it's rejecting this idea of this ceasefire. It doesn't matter what the US said. Iran is going on, is moving on. Preparing everything. So, so to me, the way I read it, putting my geopolitical analyst hat on, I will read that this, uh, real munition and air defense strain— because we do have some, some— is now forcing Donald Trump's hand. That is the harsh reality. It's because when you think about it the administration is packaging. It's all about package, how you, how you package the narrative, how you structure the narrative. So yeah, the administration packaging, uh, this forced operational pause, you know, as a some sort of magnanimous, magnanimous sort of diplomatic gesture. That's how Donald Trump wants to sell it. So, and why? Because it fits exactly the broader pattern of Washington escalating past its own capacity and then rebranding the retreat. That is the key that I need you to understand. And of course, for Donald Trump, uh, uh, as corrupted as he can get, uh, you know, we'll do this for the stock market, for energy, and so forth. And you all remember that clip I shared with you. Within less than 24 hours, the stock market for energy went up by contracts of about $520-something, around that, uh, million dollars. That is the idea of why you are hearing that narrative. It's because that's how Washington wants to sell it, because he wants to rebrand that one. Now this leads us to the fundamental questions, which what we are doing this live stream for, or analysis about, is what about the IRGC Space Force now announcing the preparation on a lot of a launch vehicle, uh, uh, solid fuel known as— if you're here or come across when you read SLV, that's the Space Launch Vehicle, just for, for you to know acronym for it. Uh, this one's like a solid fuel, and there are two types. There is Palsit and there is, uh, Raim. And I'm gonna share, uh, uh, both insights about a little bit on the technical side of it because you need to understand the difference. And of course, to me, the message of all that So because there's two series or types of vehicles, they can orbit military satellites. And we come— the next basic logical question is, how significant is this? Well, here is how you're gonna think about this one. Let me, let me first put the pictures for you to see. We'll start with this first one here. This is, I believe, Qasr rocket. So The dual-use angle is a real story here. That's what I need you to understand. What you— what is not a part of this, just the narrative but not the application, is the space aspects of it. The space program— we're not talking about space program here. And Eran is not interested in this at this point. It's interesting at something else. Because that's the framing Western coverage tends to use. You need to understand. So the IRGC's commitment to these types of rockets, those are solid propellant signal. Because what, what does it signal? It signals the long-term intent. Why? Because the large solid fuel space launch vehicles can be reconfigured. That is the key— reconfigured into a useful missile for more readily than a liquefied, liquefied, uh, or liquid fuel or other, uh, types of missiles. And that, that is the precise, uh, or the exact reason why, uh, the IRGC, okay, prefer launching its Qassid and Ra'am vehicles. Once again, here is the picture. Uh, let me put this one here. This is the Qassid, and this is the picture of Ra'am-100. That's the ones. So Iran prefer to launch— IRGC, I'm sorry, prefer to launch those two types. Yeah, they prefer those two from mobile transporter erector launchers, you know. And this is a feature that does not— does nothing for orbital insertion, has nothing to do with that, but is tactically essential for a missile if you want it to survive first strike targeting. Now you know why Iran is moving into this direction. And once again, you ask yourself the logical question: is this the real reason why Donald Trump decided, I'm gonna have to hold this because— I mean, he can decide, the guy is clueless anyway. They have to tell him, or I hope somebody with level head inside, but all of them are irrational people there in, in that administration. Suffice it to say for now, somebody, whatever, made the case to him that no, no, no, you're gonna need to hold this. Could it be because of this one here? Because you want those types of missiles to survive the first strike. Now here is where it gets very critical, and I'm going to mention— share this briefly, uh, with you here about the specificity of this particular type of, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, rockets. This is the IM-100. This is the first stage RAV motor. What does it mean in a simple language? This is the Iranian solid propellant rocket engine developed, meaning it was developed indigenously inside Iran, which is a substantial upgrade over the Qased liquid fuel first stage. This one here you are looking at is the upgrade version of this one here. So this is why it's important to understand. And when you think about it, why this substantial upgrade over the Kassid liquid fuel first stage? Because Iran Watchers credit this with the possible ballistic range of 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers. And what is the other thing that is important about it? Because this warhead can carry up, up to 1,000 kilograms which is the equivalency of 2,200-pound payload, well beyond Iran's self-imposed 2,000-kilometer ceiling. This is why it's important to understand these dynamics and the possibility of why Donald Trump all of a sudden has to halt this. And that's not, that's not incidental. No, no, no, no. To these satellite programs, as they might have you believe, or the media will want to propagate. It's the point. That's the point. Iran now, you know, and I kind of read on it when I did my book about Iran and was back then reading about their missile technology developments and so forth. Iran now runs two separate institutional programs producing large diameter solid motor usable in ballistic missiles. Why? Because he's given it, given Iran the technical capacity to blow past that self-imposed range, uh, limits or whenever he wants to. So in other words, now Iran doesn't have limits. And, and the way to understand this, for you guys to understand this, is why Israel read it the same way as Washington. Go back to the strikes in March. In March, what did the IDF want to— and did strike some of the locations— struck the IRGC Aerospace Force headquarters was explicitly, according to the IDF, justified.

Why?

Because the infrastructure— Israel wants to destroy the infrastructure that could feed into the future long-range or even, even the space-based, uh, launch weapons capable of reaching the United States. So in other words, Israel was doing the work to prevent the ICBM from reaching the US. But of course, Israel will be done, done for, uh, without this type of missiles from Iran. Iran has some other stuff to do, which tells you the story It tells you the Israelis, and by extension the United States military establishments, isn't treating this satellite launch vehicle, the SLV, as a civilian euphemism. They are so concerned, and that's why the announcement— because now the announcements of the accelerated Hasim and Rahim preps There's two right here, this one and this one. Just the announcements of those reads less as a scientific ambition and more as Tehran signaling that the war didn't set its missile industrial base back as far as the bombing campaign was supposed to. Because remember what was stated in Tel Aviv and what was stated in Washington. We degraded Iran's missile capabilities and all that stuff. So that is the message that Iran is really sending out loud. So where the mainstream narrative overstated is treating every SLV, space launch vehicle milestone, as an imminent ICBM threshold. They're not ICBMs, but it won't, it won't be that far off.

Either.

So yeah, because you think about it, what, what Eran just did, in my, in my humble opinion, is that he carried more of a political weight than a military significance. Of course he has the military dimension to it. I am reading it from this perspective, and I could be wrong, Please, if you have a different opinion, please share it with the community, uh, in, in, in the chat box. It's just I'm seeing it right now, knowing what I know as far as where the ICBM ought to be, as far as the trajectory and so forth. Iran is not that at the 12,000-kilometer range yet. Could it be— have some— could they have something that we don't know of? I will not rule that out also, but for now I'm seeing this message as political more so than it is a military one because it functions as a legitimate play and a message to Washington as much as a genuine capability leap forward. That's how I read it. So, so, so this is Tehran, Iran, in my opinion, demonstrating resilience. Yeah, but also signaling, uh, some sort of, uh, uh, optionality. It has options. It has options after 13 nights of strikes that haven't achieved anything. Except I won't go as far as saying, oh, this is a— this is a sudden ICBM breakout. I can't confirm. I can't convenient. I, I can't like confirm it 100% categorically. I can't say that because I don't see it yet. So yeah, and this is again where you have the other side of the argument from Tel Aviv and Washington, because to them they will use this as justification for exactly the kind of what Iran is racing towards, the strategic weapon, because they're gonna frame it— they, Tel Aviv and Washington— they're gonna frame it that this is what greases the wheel for the next escalatory cycle. That is where my concern, as I see it moving forward. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda, just the stories they don't want you to know. Don't watch from the sideline, be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive. Thank you. Now we talked about the SLVs, right? This type here. I'm gonna, I'm gonna talk about also Khaybar Shikan. Khaybar Shikan Very, very important to understand about this one here. But first, what I want to talk about is I want to ask the question about, uh, the significance of Iran displaying its mini Saab Ghadir. Okay, what is Iran, uh, uh, message here? Is Iran hinting at something else? Because the nuclear aspect comes also in this conversation. So what I'm going to do, I'll provide— because those are two separate signals Iran is sending, one about the tactical nukes, one about the, uh, the mini submarines and so forth, the Ghadir. So I'm gonna treat each one separately and provide you my read on both of them at the same time, or the way I see it. So one thing you need to understand, those are like, again, two separate signals. Why? Because each one of them serves a specific objective, and it's worth pulling apart rather than putting them together. The Ghadir deployment, which is the, this mini submarine, or the midget submarine as they're known, is real and is tactically coherent. Here it is, I'm going to show you. This is the Ghadir class. Very, very small. Why? Because the class's actual value, it's not in its size. No, no, no, no. Lies less in its torpedo ambush than in mine warfare and special operation insertions. That is the importance of this type of submarine. This is Ghadir, uh, uh, uh, this is the Iran's Army a big step forward for building this domestically. This is the submarine, the domestic submarine constructions. So once again, this is the importance of it. But both of them, both of these types, uh, sort of, uh, resting near— where do they send, when they send this torpedo, those, uh, I'm sorry, the submarines here, where do they, uh, keep them? They keep them— I, I think I have another picture that I showed you last time. Yeah, part of it is this one here, because those ones, they, uh, as part of the Operation Insertion, at the bottom of the ocean, they are resting near shipping lanes. Why? To impose a strategic cost below the threshold of open naval battle. That is the purpose of why Iran is using this type of submarines. Very, very, very, very manageable. That, to my knowledge, it's about 7 or 9 person crew. That's it. So, so when they do this, rather than having an open naval battle, because Iran has framed this deployment as the invisible guardian of the Strait of Hormuz. That's the point. That's why Iran still have a firm grip on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and it has also an active— between, to my knowledge, between 16 to 20 boats active even after the US and Israel claimed to have gutted the regular Iranian Navy. And again when you take a step back and see the deployment of these types of Ghadir, the mini submarine or gadget, midget rather, submarine, when you take a step back and see, you see this as the classic asymmetric doctrine. Cheap, hard-to-kill platform substituting for a fleet that can survive asymmetric fight. But it's not a new capability. No, no, no, no. So much as Iran is leaning harder on cards like this because it's held for two decades. Iran's been developing— do you know how far back they went with this programs? This is about 2008, to my knowledge, when I was still in Washington. I was made aware of those, and we kind of like— makes you wonder where it's gonna be. And here we are. So that's on the, on the, on the, uh, uh, mini subs. On the nuclear side, it's a different ball game altogether. Now, some will call it just rhetoric, maybe, maybe not. Others will say no, it has some sort of a play into this. And this is where some will say no, Iran now has bomb. I, I, I can't confirm that, so I'm not going to just assume for something of this magnitude, uh, because I can't. So what do you think? Because to me, the idea of if, if Iran will absorb all this bombing and so forth, if, if tactical nukes is available, why it's not being used? Tac— uh, tactical nukes are different than And again, I'm just thinking out loud here. So, and, and that's how we do things in our community here. We exchange ideas with each other. So, and this is exactly because— why am I saying this? Iran now has a bomb, in quote. Who's saying that? Those are the hawkish in Washington, the hawkish in Tel Aviv that's saying this, because that's how they want to frame it. What actually happening is a, almost a doctrinal argument playing out in public, even among Iranian officials themselves. But that's an argument, not a demonstrated capability. And that's to me where I draw the line. I can't conclusively say Iran has the bomb. Again, because you need to understand After the killing of, uh, the late Ali Khamenei, he had this, his say into no nuclear weapon and so forth, whatever his reasons for. That was back then. That was back then. Things now are different since the killing of Ali Khamenei. You have now the new officials in Iran under the new Supreme Leader, Mustafa Khamenei. All of them signaling— that is what they are signaling— that they are moving into this direction, openly calling for abandoning the nuclear ambiguity and building the bomb outright. This is where the difference. And that is why I think on the other side, and I said to myself Why will Iran issue a statement like that? There are those who say, well, this just psyops, whatever. Yes, it is, or to a degree, but there are certain things of magnitude like this, your credibility will be at stake here. This is— look at Trump. Why do you think we say always the tackle? Trump always checking out. Because it becomes associated with his lack of credibility. So that's why I'm saying Iran won't say this in a vacuum. There is something. I don't know what it is, but there is something for sure. And that's exactly where now the, the, the so-called the Khomeini fatwa that was against nuclear weapon back then, uh, that was from, uh, the late Ali Khamenei, it's over. It's over. The confirmation that I get, as far as the confirmation inside Tehran, suggests they are willing to move into that direction. And that is why it's signaling towards this but not confirming the possession of the, of the device. So, and of course, the corrupted IAEA has no inspectors on the ground since 2025 and they better stay out. Iran should think twice about allowing those individuals there. So there is no actual state of, uh, uh, uh, of the program that is known, uh, to the outside intelligence agencies. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. So, so when I put those two together, the development or the announcements about the mini subs and the announcements about the tactical nukes. I put them together. The way I see it is that the mini sub display is Iran showing it retains a real asymmetric teeth on the Strait of Hormuz, even despite the bombing campaign the US been embarking on for the last 13 days or so. That's on that aspect, because as of now, tell me if there is any ship that crossed the Strait of Hormuz, to your knowledge. To mine, none. So which means what? That the US is saying we are escorting? No, you're not escorting anything, because US Navy— there were 4, to my knowledge, 4 or 5 naval assets of the US get closer gets closer to this area. And guess what? Iran fired the warning shots, and those 5 naval assets, US, returned. The same arguments I can make about the Red Sea. There were some Saudi oil tankers tried to cross. They had to return. Because of what Ansarullah did. So, so that's how I, I am reading this one here. On the nuclear side, once again, it could be hinting on a much larger scale as to the psychological warfare. That, that could be because what you need to understand, you have the, uh, the two key aspects, the fissile material And the weaponization status to make the bomb, nobody knows where that is outside Tehran. And second, can't be verified anyway. So, so it's not about the question whether this is true or not true. No, no, that's beside the point. So what is important to understand is that something like this feed into the Western threat inflation narrative and cycle. That is where you have to think about it, because that makes the next round of strikes easier to sell regardless of what the actual setting in Iran, silos or seabeds or what have. So we need to think in those terms. If Iran needs to move forward and disclosing this, that means it is ready to use. So then this led me to talk about the third type. This is Khaibar, Kishan, or, or Shikan, Shikan, or Shikan missiles. Yeah, they are effective and yet cheap enough to destroy US bases. Yeah, because the Khyber, uh, Shikan is the real story of this war's cost dynamics. That is the key, and it directly ties back to diminishing depletion angle I mentioned at the beginning. That is crucial to understand. I think I had some other one. Yeah, right there. Because when you think about this one here, this directly ties back to what they are saying, because the US have been launching those $4 million missile interceptors and they end up running low on this. So because what the Iranians have figured out is that during the fighting that when they launched Haibergigan, it turns out to be to them was, okay, well, let's use this one. It's cheaper, cheap to produce, is flexible across launch systems or platforms, okay? And the third thing is effective. So that is what it means, and it means that it emerged as a resilient Iranian strategy that poses a persistent, cost-effective threat on the Americans. Because remember, that was the same one that was used on— I don't know if I have the picture of the base. No, I don't. Remember the Muafaq Salti Air Base in Jordan? That was targeted, destroyed. It was this particular missile that was used right there, and that was in the same location where the US also targeted locations— oh, I'm sorry, where Iran targeted locations of the Central Intelligence Agency. So technically, this particular type of missile, just to understand why the cost is effective for them, technically it's a solid fuel. Road and mobile. So, and, and it's rough range, to my knowledge, is about, uh, 14, 14, 14, 50 kilometer range, and is also maneuverable. That is one of the advantages it has. It's maneuverable warhead built specifically to defeat interceptors. That is why the US had nothing to defend against this. I mean, they end up— we end up using the Patriot stuff, the anti-defense system, whatever, but we're depleting the stockpile of that. So that's the important on that. So the number, when you think about this, the number of this The Khaibar Shikan cost a fraction of, uh, of the $2 to about $14 million price tag of the US and Israeli interceptors which were fired to stop it, and it didn't. No, because by looking at this logic mathematically, it makes Iran's approach economically sustainable for Tehran, while at the same time extremely expensive for Washington and Tel Aviv. Because the missile, when you think about, uh, let me put the picture back for you right there. When you think about the missile, uh, real function is less about penetrating defenses outright than forcing the accumulating trade-offs on personnel protection, logistics, force posture over time, changing the battlefield through attrition rather than any single breakthroughs. That's what I found very, very interesting about these dynamics.

And Iran—

and that's pretty precisely the dynamics behind, uh, uh, the statement by General Kane. That was the real— that was the reason behind his statements. About, uh, uh, we don't have enough to defend interceptors. When you think about it, if that's the way it is articulated, the way it's articulated is that when Kaine's stockpile warning to Trump is this: you don't need a wonder weapon to bleed a superpower. You need— this is what Iran is thinking in terms— you need the cheap missile fired often enough that the defenders' intercept, uh, interceptors' math stops working. That's it. That's all Iran needed to do, which is the same asymmetric logic Iran's applying with the Ghadir SABS. That's the same argument I can make. You now, just priced in dollars instead, instead of tonnage. That's the way I see it. Use small mobile stuff, place them near where the trajectory for the ships, and you don't have to worry about anything, because any ship that's going to cross, it's going to have to think twice.

No.

Now, before I answer the, the other question, when I, when I asked first as far as why should you really care about all this, what's in it for you, before I do that, I want to just briefly talk about what the heck Ukraine just did. Makes you just wonder, was Ukraine ordered to do so? I don't know, what do you think? I'm gonna ask you the question. Do you think Ukraine was ordered to fire on Iran's ship in, uh, uh, uh, the Caspian Sea? So just leave the answer in the chat box. Actually, I'm going to look at it right now. Yes or no, if you get a chance to. Do you think Ukraine was forced by the United States to fire on Iranian ship. You are looking at on the picture right there. Yes or no? Oh, Nikki, you say yes. Uh, Adam, you say yes. Uh, SR, yeah. Sang, bro, you say no, Ukraine is just dead man walking. I see your point. Uh, you know, you say hell yeah. You know, Truth Seeker, yes. You know, I got the point. And you guys got one. That's the— that was my initial thinking. Why would you target the same stupid mistake the Saudis made with the Houthis, which end up now costing them, is going to now be costing Ukraine as far as Iran? Because what Iran stated— because the way, by the way, FYI, uh, one Iranian sailor, to my knowledge, has died from this attack. So I do not know the circumstances under which Ukraine had to fire at this. And I'm not— I'm gonna look into this. So funny, I was just supposed to have an interview this morning, uh, with the Moscow location, but things didn't work out as far as— and I was about to ask about this one here, but it didn't work out. So now what I want to tell you about this is that Ukraine strike on this Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea now is pushing tension further. Because at least one Iranian sailor, uh, was dead. So Tehran, what they end up doing, they summoned Ukraine's diplomats. And actually Tehran now accusing Kiev of carrying out a hostile and criminal act, because that's what they did. So, so Zelensky saying that long-range missiles had targeted vessels carrying military cargo linked to Iran, as he— Zelensky, that is— accused Russia of aiding Iran military campaign against the US. Why the heck you are so dumb stupid? But at the same time, it shows you right there he was forced into taking action. This is why he's in Washington, to take marching orders And at the same time, there are 30,000 North Korean troops are joining Russia in the war against Ukraine. So I know some said, why not Russia just be done with Ukraine? No, no, no, no, no. Ukraine— Russia, I think the Russians have their own reason for that. So what I'm going to do, I'm going to play a clip for you. About this particular incident, then I'll move on with answering the other fundamental question as to what's in it for you. Why is this important for you to understand? So let's first take a listen to this one here.

Ukraine is firing back at Iran after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Iran could launch ballistic missiles against Ukraine following what Tehran says was a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel. In response, the Ukrainian military blogger known as "Drone Bomber" claiming that Ukraine already possesses long-range strike capabilities capable of reaching deep into Iranian territory. According to the map, Ukraine's Lyutyi long-range drone, with an estimated range of around 2,000 kilometers, could reach cities including Tabriz and even Tehran, while the Flamingo cruise missile, with an estimated 3,000-kilometer range, could strike targets as far as Iran's southeastern regions, while the FP-1 drone, reportedly capable of flying up to 3,400 kilometers, could reach areas near the Gulf of Oman. The publication of the map appears intended as a warning that if Iran chooses to escalate the confrontation, Ukraine may also have the ability to respond far beyond the battlefield in Eastern Europe. The exchange comes after relations between Kyiv and Tehran sharply deteriorated over the reported attack on an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea. Iran has condemned the incident, accused Ukraine of expanding the conflict, and warned that it reserves the right to defend its national security. So far, there is no indication that Ukraine has announced any plans to strike Iran. But the message being circulated is unmistakable. If the conflict between Ukraine and Iran continues to escalate, both sides are signaling that distance may no longer be a barrier.

Very crucial to understand this development. And again, I found myself leaning more towards, and again, this is based on my own analysis, the way I see the facts on the ground. Is that Ukraine is being used by the United States for this purpose. That's the way I see it. Because we have— you, you have to think there is one thing that's going on right now in Washington within the intelligence community. The intelligence community is trying now to figure out how the heck is Iran capable of hitting specific targets. Those specific targets we're talking about, uh, uh, Central Intelligence assets, locations, and so forth. Those are precision stuff, you know. Of course, the Russians have shared the ISR with Iran because the justification from Moscow is that to the US is that you're doing the same with Ukraine. You're providing the ISR for Ukrainian to target certain locations inside Russia. But now these dynamics with the attack of Ukraine on the commercial— not the— this is a military one. This is Iranian warship during the inauguration ceremony, uh, at the port of Bandar-e Anzel in Caspian Sea. So, uh, but to me, like I said yesterday, are we going to be seeing a next front, the Caspian Sea? I don't know, it'll be interesting. I'm going to keep my eyes open on this. Uh, and by the way, I'm going to share the link with you for this particular, uh, development. You can read it, uh, uh, if you choose to do so. I'm going to put it in the chat box for you. All right, let me, let me ask the fundamental question: why should you care about the developments we've been talking about, about Iran uh, sort of preparing the, uh, the, uh, space launch vehicles, these, the, uh, midget submarines and so forth. Why is this important? Why should you care? Well, because first of all, this is not an abstract thing. That's one. It's not an abstract. It's because simply it hits your wallet, because The exposure to risk is direct. Every escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, in the Red Sea, and maybe, maybe soon to be the Caspian area, roughly. But if we are to talk about just the Strait of Hormuz and we talk about the Red Sea— but let's just go with the Red Sea, with the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of global oil and gas flows through there, which means what? It means gas prices, it means inflation, it means shipping costs at home track pretty tightly with how this plays out. That's why it's important for you. I mean, when I say you, I'm referring to me as well, because I go grocery shopping and I see the prices and I see this and that, and I know why I'm noticing prices going up. And average citizen here might have no clue because they are not— they don't have exposure to information like this. So because what you are noticing now with Iran, that is, has credibility. They said we will close the Strait of Hormuz. They closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point. Yeah, dragging the US into this prolonged, expensive missile defense war. It's structurally losing on cost, meaning the US, that is. And at the same time, is shaping what Iran is doing by doing these three platforms: the submarines, the space launch vehicles, and also the missiles, the Ghadir, and the— not the Ghadir, I'm sorry, the— what was the name of the missile? The, uh, uh, Haibarchikan. Those three. By the way, this— Iran is shaping the economic conditions for all of us. So whether you follow foreign policy, whether you pay attention to geopolitics or not, it will matter. It's impacting you one way or another, impacting all of us. So And this is the key that I want you to understand. So there's also a harder stake that is involved into all this, yeah, because for especially for the American domestic, you already have now US troops are dying. Of course, I will— I trust the Pentagon as what they're saying? No, I won't. That was the same scenario that was back in Vietnam. Oh, we winning the war. The government was lying to its— to the American people. It's no different than what Donald Trump is doing and his subservient cronies. They couldn't take a stand. This to me, where, where is that leadership? Couldn't take stand. So when you have troops now dying in these strikes, you have the stockpile are being burnt down for a war that has no clear ending?

We don't know.

Yeah. And who's actually paying for this, by the way? Which is the question that is worth both in dollars and in lives. You know, we asked the European to get involved in a scoring ship. They said no, thank you, thanks but no thanks. Because this kind of questions that I'm asking right now, I'm sharing with you, rarely gets asked plainly by mainstream media coverage. That's why I do what I do, because I believe whoever watch this channel, or maybe some others, whatever, viewers in general who understand the real mechanics— and I think you do, you've been long enough with me to know— because this way you are better equipped to see through the next escalation before it's sold to all people around the world as necessary, especially for us Americans. And with that, they have to ask the hard questions about where is our tax dollars and where is the country's military capacity are actually going. Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's logical question to ask. And that is why I want you to be aware of this, and I, I decided to do this live for you, sharing this one here. So it is my conclusion for you before I play some very interesting clips for you. So at the end of the day, when I log off and you log off, you're going to take a step back and say to yourself, because you're going to be thinking, Washington didn't pause this war out of its goodness, out of its goodwill, good intention, or for peace. No, it paused because the math stopped working. While at the same time, Iran quietly proved it still, it still has teeth beneath the surface in the region and beyond. So the real question isn't whether the ceasefire holds which we know it's not. It's who is actually winning a war. Neither side can afford to keep fighting, even though I believe Iranians can, can go longer. They can't. So I'm gonna leave you with this question, and I will greatly, as always, appreciate you sharing your thoughts in the comment section. Do you think this is a genuine off-ramp for Donald Trump, or just both sides reloading for round 2? Yeah, so just leave me your, your comments when you get a chance to do so. Now let me share some clips with you. I'm gonna start with the first one, and guess from whom? It's from Ansarullah, the Houthis. And by the way, Some of those videos, uh, not some, I will say 98%, I verify. I know some of them might have just AI, but it's the content, and I verified all this also. The imagery is AI, the content is real because I checked other stories where the content is similar. So, so let's take a look at the first one. This is why now the Red Sea front is open. Take a listen, please.

Yemeni coastal forces— in this footage, Yemeni coastal forces deploy precision anti-ship missiles against a naval vessel transiting near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Tracking software captures high-explosive warhead impacts along the midsection, igniting massive fireballs and thick smoke plumes. Some reports claim the target was affiliated with Israeli Mossad interests, though its exact identity cannot be independently verified from the footage alone.

Okay, next one I want to share with you about Houthis also, what they did to, uh, to a Saudi recon plane, reconnaissance. So take a look, take a listen please.

Armed forces have shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar. Yemen's armed forces have shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı armed reconnaissance drone operated by Saudi Arabia over Al-Jawf governorate. The group also released footage showing what it says is the wreckage of the drone after it was brought down while carrying out what it described as hostile operations. Yemen—

okay, you've seen the footage for yourself. Next one is about why I said earlier Iran will most likely continue this war because of what it has, the, the stockpile stuff it has underground. So take a look, take a listen.

Nuclear site is so deep that the United States reportedly never seriously—

oh, sorry, why it's not going here?

This Iranian underground nuclear site is so deep that the United States reportedly never seriously considered striking it despite having the world's most powerful bunker buster bombs. It is the Pickaxe Mountain facility near Natanz, believed to be one of the most heavily fortified classified nuclear sites on Earth. The complex is buried more than 100 meters beneath solid granite, one of the hardest types of rock, making it extremely difficult to penetrate even with America's most advanced weapons. Even the US GBU-57 Bunker Buster can penetrate only dozens of meters underground before detonating. At more than 100 meters deep, many experts believe Pickaxe Mountain could survive even America's most powerful bomb.

Okay, that should give us a pause. Into thinking about where this is going. Uh, next one is about US losses. Once again, I will not trust what the Pentagon is saying. Uh, take, take a, take a listen here. Let me share screen first.

Iran has put out a list of all the US military losses.

Now listen to Ben Mycelis from The Midas Touch go through this list.

And Iran said, look, here's what we hit and here's what we can prove that we hit: 47 radar and air defense systems, 44 support and logistics systems, 48 operational infrastructure like those, uh, containerized housing and barracks, 49 aircraft and aerial assets. You take a look at this list: radar and defense systems, 7 command and control centers, 3 satellite communication systems, 6 Patriot air defense radars, 3 air and maritime surveillance control radars, 8 detection early warning radar systems, 7 air and missile defense radars, 3 EPS radar systems, 2 EPS-117 radars, 5 long-range— 117 radars— 5 long-range radars, 2 air defense radars, 1 tactical radar complex. Now, support and logistics facilities. 6 fighter jet and helicopter maintenance centers, 3 support and logistics centers. These are all US military facilities and equipment. 12 fuel storage tanks, 17 warehouses storing weapons, spare parts, naval equipment, and aircraft components, 6 missile storage depots. Operational infrastructure: 6 MQ drone hangars, 1 F-15 fighter preparation hangar, 1 drone hangar containing 8 factory new drones, 2 command centers, 1 aircraft carrier refueling platform, 1 P-8 aircraft hangar, 4 HIMARS missile launchers, 5 firefighter 4 Patriot air defense complexes, 6 missile launch platforms, 1 fuel pumping station, 2 signal communication centers, 1 intelligence data center, 1 artificial intelligence and data processing facility associated with Amazon, 1 depot for remotely operated unmanned surface vessels, 1 fuel pier, 4 fighter aircraft shelters, 6 aircraft parking and operating ramps. And in terms of aircraft and aerial assets, 11 fighter aircraft and helicopters destroyed or damaged on the ground, 17 reconnaissance and operational drones, including 8 factory new aircraft, 1 F-15 fighter jet, 1 P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, 1 C-17 transport aircraft, 8 aerial refueling aircraft, 4 heavy helicopters, 6 stored missiles in the past 2 weeks.

Now I know you Trump supporters are watching this and saying you don't trust the Iranians, but let me ask you, do you really trust Donald Trump? And his administration who said they've destroyed their Navy, it's at the bottom of the sea, they've obliterated their military, they've— Operation Midnight Hammer was a victory and there's no more nuclear weapons in Iran, and then they turn around and ask for $88 more billion and you see our soldiers coming home in body bags. Get your heads out of his rear end, MAGA.

He got a point there. He got a point there. So, uh, now I'm gonna share with you a clip about the location for the Central Intelligence Agency locations that was hit and confirmed. So take a look, please. Let's take a listen. But there we go.

Secret CIA base in Kuwait. Iran struck a Secret CIA base in Kuwait. 50 agents allegedly killed. And America may be hiding every detail. The claim comes from Joe Kent, a former Green Beret, CIA paramilitary officer, and former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. A man who spent 20 years inside the system. According to Kent, Iran did not just hit a military base. It struck a classified CIA facility, housing American intelligence personnel, and 50 agents were allegedly killed. But here is what America officially said: nothing. No press conference, no casualty announcement, no confirmation the facility even existed. When 6 US soldiers were killed at Port Shuaiba in Kuwait on March 1st, America confirmed it within hours. But 50 alleged CIA deaths? Total silence. Kent says the public is not being told the truth about this war, Officially, 17 American service members have been confirmed killed since February 28th. If 50 CIA officers died, that number could suddenly triple. So the question is not just whether Iran hit the base, it is what is America afraid to reveal about who was inside Iran.

Very interesting. And that's the one I told you yesterday. I saved the clip for you for today because Joe Kent, he was inside, you know, he's a former special op, as you heard. This is almost same story as to what happened in 2000 2016, '17, when 20 double agents, US spies inside China, were detained, arrested. So of course the US didn't want to disclose much about that, and that became very, very, very problematic. I wrote about this one with the reference in my forthcoming book about China, I talked about that particular incident. So next one is US and—

let me see this one.

I forgot what this one is all about. Yeah. Oh yeah, this one about what legislation just passed in Congress. Most Americans have no clue, have no clue what just happened. So take a listen, please.

I hate that I was right about this, but it's officially fucking over. Just a few hours ago, the United States House of Representatives voted to pass the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, including Section 219, which was the whole part that said the United States and the Israeli militaries will merge. It's done. The only thing left now is it has to go to the Senate. I would be extremely shocked if it did not pass the Senate. It will likely pass there, which means it's official. The total vote count was 219 to 206. Only one Republican voted against it. To nobody's surprise, that's Thomas Massie. We talked about his tweets yesterday. 5 Democrats voted in favor of it. I will give some credit to Democrats here. I thought that number was going to be a lot higher. Now, don't get it twisted. Everyone who voted in favor for this has literally just committed treason, and I'm not exaggerating. So these 5 Democrats and all the other Republicans that voted to approve this are all domestic terrorists and should be tried for treason. Listed above my head here are the 5 Democrats who voted in favor for it. We got Don Davis out of North Carolina, Jared Golden.

All right, I'm gonna stop right there. Just, I want you to know what just happened. So which now officially, uh, you will have the US soldiers fighting, uh, for Israel. And so, uh, it's, it's, it's unfortunate, but it is what it is. So, and the last one I want to share with you is about, uh, some advanced technology from China regarding, regarding, uh, the US inability now to really win a war against the Chinese. I, I was there and I saw the equipment. I'm sure you saw them too because it was broadcasted around the world. So take a listen, please.

History is afraid not of fighter jets, not of nuclear bombs, Afraid of a wall they might not be able to break through. Here's something the Pentagon doesn't want to say out loud. Multiple reports in 2026 have confirmed the U.S. Air Force right now may not be able to defeat China in combat. But why? The planes are advanced, the pilots are elite, so what's the problem? One word: A2/AD—Anti-Access Area Denial—and it should terrify every American watching this. China has built what experts are calling the most dangerous defensive shield on Earth. It's not one weapon, it's a layered web. Missiles, radars, satellites, fighter jets, submarines, and cyber warfare, all connected, all working together, all with one purpose: keep American planes out. China's A2/AD network is built from long-range missiles, radars, air defenses, cyber and electronic warfare tools—aircraft, ships, and submarines—all designed with one goal: to keep U.S. forces as far away from China as possible. And it's working. At the core of this network are long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, systems like the DF-21D, called the Carrier Killer, and the DF-26, called the Guam Killer, designed to threaten large U.S. warships at ranges previously thought unreachable. Think about that. They built a missile specifically to sink our aircraft carriers from over 1,000 miles away. And it doesn't stop there. China's air defense web also includes layered missile systems, maritime strike assets, networked fighter jets, and electronic warfare platforms, all working together in one massive kill chain. Military wargames have already played this out. The results are shocking. Wargames conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies show the U.S. could lose 300 to 500 aircraft in the opening weeks of a conflict, with 90% destroyed on the ground. Missile strikes could shut down runways in Japan for up to 12 days and prevent aerial refueling operations for over a month. That's not a war, that's a massacre before American pilots even take off. A 2026 Hudson Institute report warns that modern air power now faces systemic disruption from large-scale attacks targeting not just runways but fuel, munitions, and the entire command system that keeps planes in the air. China doesn't need to shoot down every plane. They just need to make flying too dangerous and too costly to even try. A 2026 Hudson Institute report delivers a stark warning: the U.S. Air Force could be defeated by China in a future conflict if it does not fundamentally change its strategy, driven by aging aircraft, low readiness, and a force structure— that no longer matches modern warfare. Critically, China's defense network doesn't need to be perfect. It only needs to be strong enough to raise the stakes high enough to discourage the U.S. from entering a conflict at all. That is the strategy. And right now, it's working. The U.S. Air Force dominated the skies for 80 years. But China spent those same 80 years building a system to take that away. The question isn't whether China's air defenses are a threat. The question is, are we running out of time to stop them? Share this.

People— well, first of all, I have to say, China didn't spend time to take that away. China spent time building its own capacity. That was like when, uh, when I was in, in Beijing during the parade, and I saw a tweet from a US ambassador. They said, well, the Chinese stole the technology. And I repeat, I replied to the ambassador, I said, uh, Sorry, Mr. Ambassador, China didn't stall, China invented this stuff. So the fact is that the ambassador didn't like what he saw regarding the technology, where it is as far as China. Anyway, this is the end of my, uh, I want to just say thank you to American Citizen X for buying me cups of teas in support of my upcoming trip to Asia. I also want to share this one with you here. This is from Louis. Dr. Marou, good sir, you are among the best sources of information. Fingerette number one. Thank you so much, truly appreciate you, and appreciate your kind words. And to the community, to all of you, I truly, truly appreciate your support. So I just want to share with you the link for those who wants to support my upcoming Asia trip, and I want to also to show you where we are at the fundraising so far. It is where we are. I'm hoping, uh, because remember, I need to reach $7,500 within the next week. So for that donor, remember that donor who will match dollar for dollar, if we reach $1,000 from, from the number before, that means we need to be at $7,500. That particular donor will donate, uh, $1,000 for this, which is so generous of that individual. That donor already donated major, uh, uh, amount for in, in support of this. So I will greatly appreciate you if you want to support the upcoming trip. Here is the link once again, and I'm also going to share with you the link for the, uh, the channel, uh, for those who might want to support, who wants to support the channel here. I will greatly, greatly appreciate it. So, all right, I am going to sign off. I will, uh, I'm gonna go work on my next stories for you. Of course, that's what I do, uh, and I truly appreciate you being here. Please hit the like button and make sure to share this with others. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.