George Friedman argues the media applies a double standard to Trump and Biden on NATO and Russia policy. He calls NATO a military alliance without militaries since most European members skip the 2% defense spending target. If NATO collapses, the U.S. would shift to bilateral deals with Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, though transit rights through central Europe remain uncertain.
the world situation on a daily basis as exists. That's at geopoliticallyfutures.com. Talking about Europe today and the press celebrating the rejoining of Europe. You were talking— we're talking about Eastern Europe and the fears that they have about the rapprochement with Russia on the part of Western Europe and the Americans. I just want to say, and then continue with what you want, or I'll just keep asking questions, but if President Trump had okayed the, I keep wanting to say Soviet, the Russian pipeline, it would have been regarded as another example of his kowtowing to Putin. But when Joseph Biden does it, not a word from the media. Is that a fair analysis?
Uh, it's pretty fair, very fair in fact. And similarly, uh, when Putin decides— I'm sorry, when Biden decides to keep U.S. forces in Poland, which he has so far, everybody's okay with that. When Trump puts them in, he's attacked. But this is American politics. This is the way it'll go. If you're going to be president, you got to expect that.
And more. Okay, so back to the issue here. Does Eastern Europe fear an American pullout of troops from Germany?
They're not afraid of an American pullout of Germany so long as it remains in the region. They are, however, afraid of Germany. Hard as it is to believe, when you go to Poland, they say we're trapped between the Russians and the Germans. And the Germans, you can't predict what they're going to do. Now, this may be just Polish hype, but I don't think it is. I think this is their historic enemy and it is yours. But they're most afraid of the collapse of NATO. NATO doesn't exist. We talk about it as if it exists. It's just meeting. You can't have a military alliance without militaries. And the Europeans have not lived up to their obligations to devote 2% of their GDP to building military forces. They've simply ignored it. So the United States—we do much more than 2%—is expected to carry the load. And there's a question there that we Americans have to ask. The Europeans have abandoned NATO. They accuse us of doing it, but we didn't. Now that they've abandoned NATO, they haven't maintained militaries. We have insufficient force to be effective in there. We always had allies. But they're in danger. How do we protect Eastern Europe from a possible Russian attack without allies? Germany is not able to provide any force for this. And so the real fear here is this: we're part of a military defense alliance which is incapable of defending itself because most of its European allies won't build systems.
Right. So Donald Trump was the first president to truly bring attention to that. You guys are not living up to the demands of NATO membership in terms of military expenditures. And he was vilified, of course, for it. And now we're back to the status quo ante, correct? Where we don't bug the NATO allies, and everybody has a nice champagne dinner in Brussels. Exactly.
But what really bothers me is this idea that we left NATO. Trump was totally committed to NATO. He was simply demanding that the others carry out agreements they had made in writing, and they refused to do it. And it was portrayed both in the European press, but particularly the American press, as him breaking the Atlantic relationship. It was actually the Europeans that broke the Atlantic relationship, and they still haven't broken it.
That's exactly right. It's the upside-down world of the left and the media in the United States. So what would you like the U.S. to do vis-à-vis NATO? I mean, let us say the U.S. said— it's not going to happen, but let's say the U.S. said, you know what? It's, it's now a bunch of meetings. You guys are— I love your phrase— you're a military alliance without militaries. So since that doesn't work, uh, there's no reason to have NATO anymore. What would happen?
You'd have bilateral relations with the various countries that are at risk and are willing to ante up. And that's the Eastern European countries. That's Poland, that's Hungary, that's Romania, that's Bulgaria, these countries. And really tell the rest of the Europeans, you're on your own. They're not actually at risk because they've got these frontline countries guarding them, in effect. But the idea, for example, you know, we are guarding the French and the French are conducting any foreign policy they want, whether it exists, it's good for the United States or not, you can't both be protected by the United States and then have your own free foreign policy. It's nice if you can get it, but you can't get it. And the problem is that Biden is going to cover for them. So in order that he domestically appear to be an Atlanticist, which is considered very sophisticated and proper, okay, he went to that meeting and he came back with almost nothing, meager support on China, no commitment to build major forces an agreement that we're going to build Nord Stream. He came back with nothing. And yes, our real allies, Poland and these other countries, are panicking. And they're panicking not about the Americans being there. They pretty much know the Americans will come. But can the Americans get there through the Europeans? Will their rail system be used, the roads be used for bringing American troops in. And this is the fear, because between the Atlantic and these countries, there are a bunch of countries who do not want to get involved in a war. I don't think some of them are going to let us through. Wow.
Well, I have a motto about life of the last 120, 30 years: Germany is always wrong. George Friedman, geopoliticalfutures.com. Check it out now.
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