In this interview, Dr. Ellen Langer discusses why uncertainty is a permanent feature of life and why attempts to predict individual outcomes are fundamentally flawed. She explains that people mistake post‑diction—our ability to construct plausible stories after events occur—for true prediction, leading to the illusion that we can know the future. Langer illustrates this with vivid examples, such as betting on Michael Jordan in a free‑throw contest, testing a random Mercedes in a parking lot, and recalling unexpected political election outcomes. She argues that fear of uncertainty stems from two misconceptions: believing we should have known what would happen, and overlooking that we control our emotional responses to events. Langer differentiates mindfulness from meditation, defining mindfulness as the simple act of noticing new details in the world. She offers two practical pathways: a bottom‑up approach (consciously observing three or more new things in familiar settings) and a top‑down approach (accepting that everything is uncertain, treating each moment as new). By reframing language (e.g., “impulsive” vs. “spontaneous”) and consistently noticing change in people, pets, and surroundings, we can reduce anxiety, increase engagement, and harness the benefits of uncertainty. The conversation concludes that embracing uncertainty and cultivating mindfulness lead to a richer, more adaptable life.
Chapters
Uncertainty is not new. Uncertainty didn't come with COVID Part of the reason that we think we can predict is because we're so good at postdicting. Going forward, we never know what's going to happen.
Hi, Ellen. Thank you again for joining your own podcast. How are you today?
My fault.
Awesome. So, Ellen, so last week we were— you were answering some of the users' questions. And we posted that, we received a lot of positive reactions, but there were some other types of reactions as well. For example, people were saying that there are some uncertainties in our lives. One particular user was saying that, I'm a psychologist and I'm a fan of yours, and, uh, 2025 was the year of losses for me, losing friendships, sisters, everything. So I know there are so many choices that I have to make. There are so many uncertainties. And intellectually, I know that, uh, you know, I have to just pick a lane, choose something and go with it, but I cannot kind of, you know, push myself to do that. I have a lot of overthinking going on. So what are your thoughts on that?
Well, I have several thoughts. First of all, um, essentially the question comes down to, there are times I know I should do something and I can't get myself to do it. And I don't think that ever really occurs. That when we think we should do one thing, we don't really think we should do it, or else we would do it. And that's the first thing. The second, that's even more important, is uncertainty is not new. Uncertainty didn't come with COVID Everything is always changing. Everything looks different from different perspectives. We never know. Now, the problem is people think they can predict. And prediction is an illusion. You can predict for a group, for example, but to predict the individual case is impossible. So if you were told 9 out of 10 people did well with the surgery, you still wouldn't know if you were going to be like the one person who didn't do well. You know, an example I'm fond of using, let's say I have a foul shooting contest with Give me a famous person.
Michael Jordan.
Okay. Let's say I'm in a foul shooting contest with Michael Jordan and we're just shooting one basket. Would you put all of your money and your future earnings on him rather than on me? Well, he sometimes misses. I sometimes make it. He might have had a fight with his wife. He might have a stomachache. Or his eyes are now blurry and, you know, lots of things leading to his missing the basket. He could even say, let the older woman win. What's the difference? It's not going to change his status, his financial setting or anything else about himself. Right. And so when we think of all the reasons that the prediction might be counter to what we had in mind, We become more aware that, gee, prediction is hard. Another example I often use— excuse me— if you were going to go into a Mercedes parking lot and randomly choose one car to see if it would start, would you wager all of your life savings? And no, you wouldn't, because, you know, even with the best, sometimes there are lulls. Part of the reason that we think we can predict is because we're so good at postdicting. So after the fact, it's easy to create a chain of events as to how whatever happened could have happened. Going forward, we never know what's going to happen. And, you know, so to suddenly become afraid of uncertainty doesn't make sense. And in a big way, think how many people didn't think Barack Obama would be be elected president? How many people didn't think Trump would be elected president? So you— while you can't predict the individual event, you can predict for the group. Once something happens, you look back and say, ah, I should have known, but you shouldn't have known. Now, uncertainty is scary for people because, um, for two reasons. One, they think they should have known. Okay, you couldn't know. And number two, is people are not as aware typically as they should be that we control the experience of whatever happens. So events don't cause boredom, stress, fear. It's our interpretation of events that leads us to any of these emotional states. And the more mindful we are, the more potential explanations we have. In a simple way, let's say even if I asked you a simple question, do you want to meet my friend Joe? He's very impulsive. No, why would you want to meet him? In fact, meeting him is scary, stressful, and so on. If I say, do you want to meet my friend Joe? He's very spontaneous. Yeah, I'd love to meet your friend Joe. All right. And spontaneous and impulsive are the same thing. So no matter what the event, there's always a way of understanding it that can leave us feeling calm, even looking forward to the outcome. And the more we do this, the more we take events that have caused us dismay and look for how it was actually an advantage from a different perspective, the less frightened we are of future events, the less need we have to be able to predict them. Or basically, the more comfortable we are with uncertainty. Uncertainty is a friend. Uncertainty leads us to be mindful. And when we're mindful, we're noticing things, able to take advantage of benefits to which other people are blind, or to not fall into traps that other people don't even see. When we're mindful, the neurons are firing, and it's literally and figuratively enlivening. So the alternative to this being mindful is to be like a robot. Now, sure, robots are not going to be scared, but robots are not going to be happy. Robots are not going to make the wrong choice because robots don't make choices. And so the bottom line, I guess, about uncertainty is that we should embrace it and exploit the power of uncertainty.
Wow. Okay, perfect. And you talk a lot, of course, about mindfulness. So I know a lot of our users want to know what mindfulness is to you, because when we are talking about mindfulness, we always think of meditation. So I know you have—
Mindfulness is— Yeah, no, mindfulness is— I did some of the very early research on meditation and meditation is good. It's just different. When you meditate, you sit quietly for 20 minutes twice a day with your eyes closed repeating a mantra. Meditation isn't mindfulness. Meditation is a practice you undergo, hopefully to result in post-meditative mindfulness. Mindfulness, as we study it, is the very simple process of noticing. Now, when you think you know, you don't notice, right? Because you know, you're not present. Lots of people say, be in the moment, and that's very sweet, but it's empty. The reason it's empty is because when you're not there, you're not there to know you're not there. Sadly, most of us are not there, are mindless almost all the time. So two ways to become mindful in this understanding of mindfulness. One is bottom up. Walk out your door, notice three new things. Wow, you know, I've lived here for 10 years, but I never noticed this or that. Notice 3, 5 new things about a person you might live with, a friend, a person at work. You just keep noticing new things about things you thought you knew, and you come to see you didn't know it as well as you thought you did. And so eventually you do that often enough, you recognize that everything is new. That's bottom up. Top down is accept that everything is uncertain. And when you accept that everything is uncertain, you approach everything as if it's new.
Exactly. You, you said about noticing new things. I personally do this a lot. I mean, I think I have a small dog and I think he and his craziness makes me notice a lot of new things. And I think having a pet, yes.
Beautiful.
Yeah.
So it's beautiful. A beautiful example is our dogs. Our children, and the reason we don't get bored with our dogs or with our children, you know, you say, oh, you've been my daughter for 20 years. You bore the hell out of me. That doesn't happen. And the reason is because we expect our daughters, our sons, all of our children, other people's children, and dogs to constantly change. And so because we expect them to change, we look to notice those changes, which is itself exciting. You know, that noticing these changes is the essence of being engaged. So an example, Nishat, if you came to visit me, you've never been to my house, you wouldn't have to practice anything. Everything would be new. You'd walk in, you'd say, oh, did she do the painting underneath her head now? What books? What is that over there? You know, you would naturally notice.
Exactly. Being in new places. But it's also super important that in our daily lives, it's not like we have to always go travel somewhere to notice new things, appreciate new things.
You don't have to go anywhere because everything right where you are is brand new.
Exactly.
I, I love when you grade my answers, Michelle. It's good, it's good. I'm teasing you. It's good.
