Ep 34 How do leaders make decisions when there's no time and no certainty?

It's the Job Flip Long-Term Strategy Podcast, episode 34. In today's world, you don't have 6 months to make a decision. You may not even have 6 days. The threats are faster, the timeline shorter, and the stakes higher. So how do you make decisions under duress when certainty is impossible? You certainly don't want to make things worse, and that's the challenge that we're tackling today. Is there a way to achieve some kind of balance between the need to escape a difficult solution while at the same time planning for long-term success. Tune into this episode to hear from me and my special guest, Marcel Melzer, as we tackle and try to solve this wicked problem together. We'll be exploring ways of maintaining a long-term focus in the middle of a disaster or a disruption. I'm Francis Wade, and welcome to the Jump Leap Long-Term Strategy Podcast. Yeah. All right. That's that part. So let me bring us back in together, the two of us. Okay, so now both of us should be on the screen. And we're back. As you can see that I'm joined on the screen by my special guest, Marcel Melzer. Let me tell you about Marcel. He's an engineer and strategy consultant with experience in supply chain, aviation, and manufacturing. He's also the founder of something called Foolish Futures, where he combines strategic foresight with decision intelligence. He offers a 48-hour decision-as-a-service model in which he helps leaders make fast, confident choices under uncertain uncertainty. Marcel, welcome to the show. Hi, Francis. Good to be here. Looking forward for the conversation. Great. Folks, you should know that Marcel is dialing in all the way from Germany. I'm here in Jamaica. Thank goodness we have technology. But if this is the first time that you're dialing into our, the show, to the Jumplead Podcast, you may not know that this is a bit different than other podcasts. So this is a problem-solving session where Marcel and I will be working on the problem together, assuming that neither of us has the total or complete answer. And the first part of our show will be spent in diagnosis. And the reason we're going to spend most of the show in diagnosis, as Einstein tells us to do, is that we're hoping to share with you our underlying thinking or philosophy, kind of our approach, so that you can use it yourself. It's far better than just telling you what our conclusions or outcomes are and you have, you know, you kind of like, where did that come from? Here we're actually going to break things down so that you can see, you know, weigh the pros and cons of our different points of view. As I mentioned, Einstein