In this podcast episode Francis Wade presents his Jamaica Gleaner article “The Hidden Secrets of Flexible Strategy,” arguing that modern leaders need a clear, yet adaptable, strategic framework. He stresses the importance of a steadfast “True North” to keep teams focused, while warning against rigid, long‑term plans that become obsolete when disruptions occur. Wade introduces Rapid Backcasting—a streamlined version of traditional backcasting that uses a single matrix to map future KPIs, revenue, profit, and project milestones across a multi‑year timeline. This visual tool enables quick revisions when conditions change, as illustrated by companies that adjusted their plans during COVID with only a few meetings. He also critiques the over‑reliance on external consultants, advocating instead for empowering internal managers through group dynamics and rapid backcasting training. By leveraging the nuanced, day‑to‑day expertise of staff, organizations can make credible, collective decisions and swiftly “unmake” prior choices when needed. The episode concludes with a call to action for Caribbean companies to seek help via Wade’s blog and show notes.
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Hello and welcome back to Chronicles from a Caribbean Cubicle podcast. This is Francis Wade and here's an article I wrote for the Jamaica Gleaner. It's entitled The Hidden Secrets of Flexible Strategy. As a leader, you need to provide your organization with a clear path for the future, but you also hate changing direction in midstream. Some say you shouldn't bother to make any long-term plans in the first place. But is that the best solution? It pains you to think of spending a lot of time and money to create extended plans which require updates when there is a disruption. Why? You know staff can feel disempowered when a rethink is needed. However, you also realize that having a predetermined True north steadies the ship. It keeps your team focused on the horizon rather than on the next wave. Confident in the future, they aren't distracted by their immediate fears or social media or their email inbox. But if you stick to the old ways of doing strategic planning, you are likely to fail. Most still try to use a vague vision statement. What Dr. Richard Rommel calls the "statement doctrine." It's easy to do, but few remember it. Some organizations give up without even trying. They simply rename their 5-year list of tactics a strategic plan and keep going. Fortunately, there are modern techniques which can be combined with group dynamics to provide you with the flexible plan you need. Here are a few of these elements. 1. Rapid backcasting. Unlike forecasting, backcasting is known as a method of strategic planning in which a detailed future vision is defined first. From this visionary description involving multiple key performance indicators , you step back in time to the present. However, its originators in the academic social sciences have been accused of turning the approach into an exercise requiring months of effort at high expense. The end result is a long report usually unreadable by the average manager. Fortunately, there's an alternative in the form of Rapid Backcasting. In this adaptation, the output is a single matrix. This picture captures the timing of major decisions in your timeline as shown in the vastly simplified diagram below. And here there's a diagram of, as a matrix, um, on the top axis it's 2023, 2024, 2026, 2030, 2036, 2045, and 2050. And in the left column there's revenue, profit, and then space for Project 1 and Project 2, which look like mini Gantt charts. For example, a company with a 27-year plan can record milestones such as the acquisition of another firm, Project 2 above. But this is just the start. Overseas expansions, outsourcing, new technology implementation, product innovation, re-engineering, rapid process automation—these are all big decisions to be included in your timeline. One immediate benefit is that the plan is rigorous and credible. By including major activities and their impact, you ensure the logic is sound. But the other plus is that when circumstances shift, it can be modified quickly. When COVID arrived, for example, companies changed their backcasted diagrams. It took only a meeting or two. Why? The fact is that their true north didn't change by much. Only the tactics to get there. By contrast, if they had to deal with a 100-page report, they may have given up. 2. Powerful group dynamics. In the old, rigid approach mentioned above, organizations come to believe that their executives don't have time for long-term thinking. In these circumstances, they may turn to outside consultants. At great expense, these outsiders attempt to do the hard thinking required on behalf of their leadership team. Along the way, they present voluminous PowerPoint slides and reports. Usually their thinking is logical, but it's not enough. Why? This approach fails to rely on the real experts, those managers who struggle with the challenges each day. Their inside knowledge is nuanced and often underestimated by outsiders. A very different technique would be to teach them rapid backcasting. Then set them loose to do it on their own. They can learn how to think from the future back to the present and develop a complete matrix of results in hours. Even though they may not have the big IQs of the consultants, collectively they produce something better. After trading different points of view and conducting some hard negotiations, they have made the most difficult decisions and now they have a credible plan. I can say from experience I have witnessed teams making the most challenging choices imaginable under these circumstances. It's inspiring. In an honest and truthful setting, executives actually step away from their personal interests and seek the best for their companies. They just need to be given the chance to surprise the company with their courage and intellectual prowess. As such, when the inevitable disruptions occur, the team can call a fresh huddle, confident in their ability to make the necessary changes. After all, they can unmake any original decisions as they know how to use the tools. The naysayers argue that such feats are impossible. Don't even try, they advise. But they are wrong. Modern approaches like backcasting can now be taught quickly, and doing so makes all the difference. Thanks for listening. Do you have an unsolved problem in your Caribbean company related to strategy, productivity, engagement, or business process improvement? Just visit a searchable listing of all my prior articles and you may be able to help yourself to a fresh line of thinking. Go to blog.fwconsulting.com or see the show notes.
