In this episode of the Chronicles from a Caribbean Cubicle podcast, Francis Wade reads his Jamaica Gleaner article that urges executive teams to surface and challenge outdated post‑COVID assumptions. He explains that many companies rushed to survive the pandemic with ad‑hoc tactics, leaving hidden, often contradictory assumptions embedded in their old business models. Wade proposes a systematic approach: first, identify a set of public pandemic milestones (e.g., case level‑off, curfew lift, border reopening) and recognize that executives may hold divergent dates for each. Misaligned dates can cause costly mis‑coordination. Next, he offers four diagnostic questions to uncover material changes, why they matter, the original assumptions that must be discarded, and the new assumptions to adopt. He stresses the need to quantify confidence in predicted dates using confidence intervals, distinguishing between 50 % and 90 % certainty. Finally, Wade outlines a concise strategic planning cycle—snapshot, target, measurable outcomes, backcasting from the future to 2020, and milestones—emphasizing collective executive dialogue and the urgency of revising baseline hypotheses before the next disruption. The episode concludes with a call to action for Caribbean leaders to engage with his blog for further resources.
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Hello and welcome back to Chronicles from a Caribbean Cubicle Podcast. This is Francis Wade, and here's an article I wrote for the Jamaica Gleaner. It's entitled, "What are your executive team's new post-COVID assumptions?" Is your company being undermined by obsolete assumptions held by some of your leaders? To move forward, they must be challenged. In our work to develop clients' breakthrough strategies, we try to highlight such hidden assumptions. These are often unspoken, clashing ideas which undermine the corporate strategy. When the plan needs revision, the team should uncover and sort out these differences to act as one. Unfortunately, most companies were rushed to respond to COVID-19 and created little more than a bunch of survival tactics. Now that lockdown is being phased out, organizations must find a way to achieve their new normal if they hope to survive. However, as they do so, they need to look past the relatively simple task of putting people back in front of their desks safely. A fresh strategy is required to suit the times. One approach is to explore the foundation assumptions which are now embedded in their old business model. For example, they should date the following common milestones: new coronavirus case level-off day, active coronavirus case reduction day, curfew lifting day, employee separation day, remaining employee return day, custom reopening day, border reopening day, international flight resumption day, "End of social distancing day," and "R0 below 1.0 day," which is a measure of COVID-19's contagiousness. Each of these public events signals a turning point in the crisis. While they are unknowable with absolute certainty, that's not the main challenge. The problem is that executives in your company are likely to hold different estimates of each milestone. This discrepancy could just be an interesting curiosity, except that each individual is making daily decisions based on their personal understanding. For example, if HR believes that employee return day is on June 15th, but customer service commits to a customer reopening day on June 1st, there's a big problem. The company can waste time, effort, and money if the two plans aren't synchronized. But this list of key dates is just a start. There are a number of other assumptions which only apply to your industry or company which need to be unearthed. Here are some of the questions I have been urging clients to ask themselves. Question 1: What material changes have occurred in your business? Here I recommend you brainstorm individually and then as a team. It's no place for groupthink, the tendency of people to conform to majority thinking. Focus on concrete changes which are tangible and can be measured. Number 2: Why does the change matter? Here you must confront aspects of your business model which can no longer work. Query what will happen if you continue the old model in this new environment. Question 3: If the change is permanent, What were the original assumptions that must be challenged? These were embedded in the old business model, perhaps never discussed. Now you must make them explicit. Question 4: What are the new assumptions? Given the data you have on hand, what will you assume moving forward? Furthermore, to make sense of your predictions, also think in terms of confidence. For example, if your team believes that on average, The reopening day will be on September 30th. Apply a confidence interval to this date. For example, we are 50% sure that the date will fall between September 1st and October 31st. That's very different from being 90% sure it will fall between September 25th and October 5th. This additional information helps you make better decisions. Introducing added flexibility where it may be needed. Of course, this is just the beginning. You should continue the regular strategic planning process I have summarized in prior articles: 1. Create a current snapshot. 2. Set a target month or year that will allow a breakthrough to manifest. 3. Craft measurable outcomes. 4. Backcast from the future to 2020, filling the gap with necessary actions. And milestones. Finally, ensure that the content of the discussion is one of exploration and innovation. The fact is, there will probably never be another moment like this one in your business. Discontinuities of this magnitude rarely occur more than once in a lifetime. Needless to say, companies that don't revise their baseline hypotheses will be left at the starting line. In like manner, those who allow their CEO to set a bunch of makes leaky assumptions by himself will also run last. Take the opportunity to make the most of this crisis by challenging the assumptions that render your old business model and strategy obsolete. Get all the members of your executive team talking to arrive at a new baseline. Feels uncomfortable? The fact is that you are making an educated guess, then taking a bet that you are right. Regardless, your organization needs you to make such commitments so it can find success within this pandemic. Thanks for listening. Do you have an unsolved problem in your Caribbean company related to strategy, productivity, engagement, or business process improvement? Just visit a searchable listing of all my prior articles and you may be able to help yourself to a fresh line of thinking. Go to blog.fwconsulting.com or see the show notes.
