The easiest way to identify 'bias' in your trading

Soyen troops, how we doing? Now, the number one question that I get from traders, both in my community, on social media, from videos like this, is how do I predict daily bias? How do I understand which way to trade and what should my bias be? And My answer is the same every single time, and I try and reiterate this to my students particularly as much as I possibly can. But here lies, here lies the problem. As traders, or a lot of failing traders, one of the key things that you have to remember is that becoming a successful trader is not about being good at predicting the market. Becoming a good trader is being able to react to predictable and repeatable price delivery models that play out consistently within the market. I don't wake up and check the charts in the morning and predict what's going to happen. I just know that when certain things happen, because of the nature of cause and effect, that I can then react to those things happen— happening, and it allows me to find high probability trades, again based on data. So in this video, I'm going to share with you the easiest way to identify bias in your trading. And again, you might have seen this concept before. I mean, I talk about this concept a lot, but specifically in this context, maybe not so much. But I'm going to show you how I predict or how I identify my bias and what my approach is around identifying in which direction am I going to be trading for that day, that session, whatever it may be. So typically as traders, what we're taught, or what sort of makes sense, is to look at structure, right? People will look at 4-hour structure, for example. They'll say, okay, we've got 4-hour bearish structure and that means that I'm going to look for sells. I'm going to be looking for sells within that 4-hour bearish structure, um, and I'm going to be away, and that's what I'm going to be looking for. Now, there's not necessarily anything particularly wrong with that, other than the fact that it's just going to be restricting you far too much if you're trading intrasession, um, even intraday in a lot of cases, by essentially neglecting half of the trades that you could be taking. So if it's 4-hour bearish structure, just not looking for buys, there is a huge amount of data there that could potentially lead to further upside. And that's exactly what happened with, with my strategy on the first development. I again had it based on 4-hour structure. If it's 4-hour bearish structure, we only look for shorts. And I found myself just sort of picking up on signs and counter-trend trades So I decided to go away, look into the data again and understand, okay, well, if I just remove this bias thing, is there a way of me making more money? And funnily enough, the data was collected and the data suggested that bias means absolutely nothing. And the key to me making more money was being able to flow and react with the market. So let me share my screen and run you through how I flow and how I react with the market and how I don't predict what's going to happen, right? Again, this is very much about putting your ego aside, or maybe the, the apprehension of, of, uh, of not coming into the market with prediction, right? You want to be prepared, but you don't want to be prepared in terms of prediction. You want to be prepared in understanding what the signs are. Okay, if I'm looking for a certain effect to play out, what are the causes of that effect? And it's those causes that you can build a strategy around that we're going to allow you to find those high probability trades that are ultimately going to lead you to have an edge over the market. So let me share this. So again, this is just a very, very simple chart here. Again, I always keep things super, super simple. Um, and this is a 15-minute time frame. So for a bit of context, I trade um, intra-session. So I personally only trade, uh, the London session. I don't trade New York, although this concept very much applies to that as well. So as opposed to me looking for structure and using that to dictate my daily bias, all I will do is I will wait for the first run of liquidity within that session, right? Because if I'm looking at the London session, what do I want— what effects do I want to see? I want to understand where the most significant move in that session is going to come from. I want to understand if that session is going to go higher or if it's going to go lower. So just because structure is bearish, right, 4-hour structure could be bearish, that doesn't mean that price isn't going to go higher. Price could be trading within that, within internally within that 4-hour bearish structure, and it could be looking to, to run higher, right? It could be looking to seek premium prices. So by shifting your focus to Understanding, okay, well, what's the effect going to be? It's going to be a move in either direction. What is the potential cause of that? And what we can see is, is going to be demonstrated here is, is understanding liquidity, because ultimately liquidity is going to be the cause for price to move, right? That is the fuel for the market. That is what creates those moves in the market. So if we know that that's going to create those moves in the market, all we have to do is wait for that, in particular the first run of liquidity. The way that I look at this is where is that first run of liquidity coming from? And is that going to give me a tradeable opportunity? So again, we run, run through some examples here. What we can see has happened, prices— I mean, obviously number one, look at this, we're obviously very much in 4-hour bearish structure here, right? So again, this is kind of a great example. We can see the price starts and opens bearish. Okay, we run lower, we run lower, we run lower. Until we get into this point of liquidity here, which all of a sudden causes price to turn around and run higher. Okay, so the most significant move of the session was this move here, was this bullish move. So again, I know that essentially the effect that I'm looking for is where's that most significant move coming from, and then what's the cause going to be. Okay, removing the need for bias, because all you do is you flow with the market. If we run into sell-side liquidity, we know that we can be looking for those long positions, or vice versa. So again, what happens here, we can see that again Frankfurt open, we dip into price here at about 7:45, 8 o'clock in the morning. And then again, what happens is we run that liquidity, we fuel ourselves for that expansion to the upside, okay? And that allows us to trade, um, that directional bias for the session. Okay, so we're not predicting, but we're reacting to what the cause is going to be for the desired effect. And again, you can see here that ultimately this is the main move for that session. Again, here, very, very similar. What happens? The market runs into this point of liquidity. Again, we're sitting in and around this point. Okay, this liquidity is still remaining valid. What then happens is 7 o'clock opens, say Frankfurt open, that liquidity is then taken. And then what does that do? That creates the expansion for the session. Okay, where is the most significant move for the session? It's right there. Okay, this is the effect that we're looking for. What is the likely cause going to be? It's going to be that run on liquidity. Okay, so instead of having a bias coming into the market. You have a bias based on what you see. Okay, what is, what is the effect that we're looking for? And then what is that cause going to be? Okay, and again, we know that liquidity is going to be the fuel for the market. So if we prioritize what we know the highest probability scenarios are going to be— again, it's not going to play out every day, of course it's not— but if we prioritize what we know is going to create the moves that are going to give us the most conviction allows us to find the best setups. And again, here, let's go through some more examples. Marked up a few. So again, this is a great example of New York session, right? London session, we didn't see any run on liquidity, and that's why we didn't really see much of a significant move. But what then happens again as soon as we get into, into the New York session? We have liquidity, we run liquidity, and then what happens? Cause and effect. Okay, the most significant moves, the moves that we're looking for, the moves that we fantasize about, they are coming from the run of liquidity. All we need to do is react. Okay, it's about understanding what price delivery models play out, why and how the market moves, understanding the causes of that and the signs and how they play out. And aligning yourself with that. So every single day I get on the charts, every single day I get on the charts, I haven't got a clue what's going to happen, nor do I care what's going to happen. I don't care whether we're bullish, whether we're bearish. All I do is react to what is being presented in front of me, and I flow with the market. Again, this is such a big problem, right? Such a big problem. The second that you start to give your opinion or your thoughts or your feelings all you turn to is a discretionary trade, right? You just gamble. Because why, why do we think that we know better? Just pick up on the signs, right? Pick up on the patterns. Why do these things happen? And you can keep your trading so simple, so easy, if you just focus on one thing and you remove the need to care. So again, let's go through some more examples. Again, I've got a ton here. So again, what have we got here? We dive into this point of liquidity. What happens? Where does that most significant move come from in the New York session? It comes from that run of liquidity. Okay, if there's no run of liquidity, what do we do? We don't trade. Simple as that. Again, here we look at this piece of price action. What is the most significant move that has played out within this session? Well, quite clearly it's this move here, right? This is the largest move that's played out, okay? That's what we want to find. We want to find where those largest moves are going to be playing at. Where are the, the best moves to trade for that session, okay? And then where did they come from? What happens here? We dip to the downside, we have a pullback, we find the liquidity and that then fuels the market to create its directional bias, which is then that expansion to the downside. Again, it doesn't matter whether 4-hour is— or our— whatever the time frame is, doesn't matter if it's bullish or bearish, moving sideways. All we know is that if we see a nice run of liquidity, that first run of liquidity for the session is typically going to give us that direction for the session as well. Okay, so all we need to do is just focus on that. Again, it's as simple as that, and that's as simple as my trading is. I mean, honestly, like, I say this to a lot of my mentorship students and the people I work with: if you honestly saw how simple my trading routine is, you would not believe that I'm profitable doing this, right? Everyone else's trading looks so complicated. They do so much analysis and all this, that, and the other. But all you need to understand is What are the mechanical rules that go into me identifying what the cause is going to be for the desired effect I'm looking for? That's it. You put a set of mechanical rules in place that you can follow consistently every single day without the need for emotional, um, decision-making. And as long as you've collected the data on that, and as long as you can understand that there's an edge present by following those rules, that's all you have to do. You wake up, you follow the rules, you pull money from the markets, and you walk away. It's as simple as that. Again, what have you got here? All we need to do is look at the chart and look where the significant move comes from. Significant move, right? The biggest move that we can see on this screen right here, where does that come from? Okay, we have New York session opens here, we go and seek this liquidity. Once we grab this liquidity, what then happens? Price has this expansion to the upside. Again, if we want to find these moves, we understand the cause. The cause is the run of liquidity, and that gives us a tradeable opportunity, right? That is when we then look for that confirmation, look for our ability on the lower time frames to execute on this move, running with the expectation it's going to run higher, right? And when you see this pattern play out repeatedly every single week you're going to have far more conviction in what's going to happen next. Okay, this is why I swear by trading this way, because it allows you to have conviction, right? And having that conviction allows you to trade without that emotional attachment to what you're doing, because you trust what you're doing. Again, one from this morning that's literally playing out, playing out as we speak. What happens here? The market opens, okay, market opens, it goes to seek this liquidity here. Once you run that liquidity, what then happens? The directional bias is then in play, okay, because we know cause and effect. We know that when this happens, that there's a high probability of this happening, okay, and then that's what we want to trade. What we don't want to do is come into the market and think, okay, I'm only looking for sell positions here, right? And then price does this, and then you're left in the, in the dust. The market's run to the upside, you're only looking for sales, and you completely miss this opportunity. An opportunity like this, this could be making you your whole month's, um, income, right? This one trade here could give you thousands in profit, right? Obviously depending on how much cash you've got, but These are the sort of things you want to focus on, right? Having a focused approach. One thing, one strategy. I mean, I trade one strategy, um, one session, two pairs, and that's it. That's it. I don't really do any analysis. I just identify points that this could happen from, I set alerts, and then I walk away. When we get tapped into these regions, I look for my confirmation, I make the trade. It's as simple as that. So again, if you want to— if you want to take off a lot of that emotional load from your trading, a lot of that stress, a lot of that second-guessing, have a focused approach. Stop predicting what's going to happen because we don't know. We don't know. I don't know what the market is going to do in the next hour. I don't know what the market's going to do tomorrow, the next day. I didn't know what it was going to do today.. But I know that when I see my rules being met in this, in this manner, I then have conviction as to what's going to happen next. Because again, it's all cause and effect. There's no way to predict what's going to happen in the market, none whatsoever. What there is, what you are able to do, is have a clear set of repeatable mechanical rules. You're then able to collect the data on that, which is in turn going to allow you to identify whether by following that set of mechanical rules you will have an edge over the market. And that's all we have to do as a trader to be profitable. So I'm going to leave this one here. Take this into consideration, right? That first run of liquidity of that session. Again, you can look at the same thing, right? Even if you're on the daily chart, right? If you look at that run of, run of liquidity on the daily chart, you're probably going to look to get your, um to get your daily bias. I mean, it might play out over a few days or something like that, but for me, 15-minute run of liquidity is going to give me that directional bias for that session. New York session, the first run of liquidity for that session is going to give me the bias for that session, again in turn giving me conviction in which direction we're going to move in, right? Because we run from sell side to buy side, buy side to sell side. And that's it. Anything that happens outside of that is a follow-on from that concept, and that's all we need to understand, right? So keep your trading simple. Keep it simple. Focus on what matters. Remove the fluff. The emotion goes, the discretion goes, the worrying goes, the second-guessing goes, and you actually have conviction in what you're doing. So stop predicting. Start reacting, stop having a bias, and just wait for the right things to happen before you execute a trade. So as always, any questions, just stick them in the, in the box below, in the comments box below. Subscribe, and I'll see you in the next one.