This is a transcript excerpt from a YouTube interview between Mo Gawdat and James Laughlin on AI acceleration and its implications. Gawdat explains technology acceleration (citing Moore's Law and exponential doubling of compute), argues that AI capability will continue to double annually, and reiterates his prior prediction that AI could become a billion times smarter than humans by 2045 (now he suggests 2037 instead). He compares IQ estimates (claims ChatGPT-4 ≈ IQ 155, Einstein ≈160) and uses animal analogies (dogs, dolphins, ants) to illustrate incomprehensibility between intelligence tiers. He notes both danger and potential utopia.
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AI is not actually a piece of code. It's not human intelligence. It's learning from human intelligence, but it's building its own intelligence. Now, when you understand this, you understand that in technology development, which is rarely spoken about, the most famous chart that governs technology development is known as the technology Acceleration Curve. Moore's Law is a great example of that. Moore's Law basically said since 1967, I think that processing power will double every 18 months almost at the same cost, right? And it held true until today. And every time we, we think, oh, close to impossible, we find a new breakthrough that continues to grow our compute. Now.
Doubling is a very tricky thing because, you know, if, if you had one unit of compute year one, and then 18 months later you doubled, it becomes two, but then the next doubling it becomes four, that becomes eight, and then it becomes 16. So your growth, which was one unit on the first year, is eight units on the fourth year, and then today it's 8 trillion units. So every time you double, okay, you're, you're literally doubling all of the compute we've achieved the year before. Right? With that, with that in mind, you know for a fact that the AI we have today will at least double every year going forward. So, so that basically leads you into, you know, it doesn't matter if it's in five years or 10 years or 70 years that it continues to double until the prediction in on my mind is that by the year 2045 that. This is what I wrote in Scary Smart for By the year 2045, there'll be a billion times smarter than us, right? Wow, I'm wrong, I'm wrong in that, okay? And I, and I say openly, AI constantly surprises us. I'm now probably pulling that forward to 2037, okay? And, and you know, a billion times, as a matter of fact, doesn't actually matter at all. Because if you asked, you know, a, a person with an IQ of 110, let's say, to comprehend what a person of an IQ of 170 is talking about, it becomes difficult, okay? If that person is 220, you know, if you're, if you're, if you're not adept in physics, for example, I dare you understand what this, the real scientists mean when they talk about string theory or quantum field theory or whatever. That's the, the, the variation of intelligence that is maybe 20, 30% more than yours, right? Imagine if you're, you know, someone is 10 times more intelligent than you, then you're basically comparing the intelligence of a Dolphin to the intelligence of a human.
Let'S say different language, like a totally different language.
Completely unable to comprehend what the human is talking about. Right? And, and, and, and you know, and you, and you keep thinking about this. Sam Harris was speaking on, on a podcast recently about what dog example, right? So imagine if all of the dogs invented us humans to take care of their needs, right? And in his, in his example, we did really well on fulfilling that, you know, by feeding them and grooming them and you know, taking them to the vet when they're sick and so on. Like amazing invention, which is what, what we are doing with AI we're trying to get something that helps us out. But then the dogs are completely, completely oblivious to the fact that you and I are having this conversation or to the fact that Einstein has been considering relativity or Niels Bohr was talking about quantum physics or that we have social constructs and you know, debates about ethical values. And you know, they, they are completely oblivious to all of this. They can't even comprehend what it is that we would be talking about if we discussed quantum field theory. Right? And, and I think, and, and the difference in IQ is what, you know, 100x imagine if it's a, a billion x a billion with a B. Is, is a comparison of an ant to Einstein. Now what most people don't recognize is that Chad GPT4 is 10x smarter than 3.5. Right? And Chad GPT4 is estimated to have an IQ of 155. It outsmarts most of us. You know, it passed the bar exam. It, you know, it has a, you know, it, it can, it can become a PhD in medicine. It can become this and that from that task that we call knowledge. It seems to outsmart most of us. It's definitely outsmarts me, right?
Einstein was 160, I think IQ or 190, it doesn't matter really. I think it was, he was 160. 155 is chat GPT4. If chat GPT5 doubles once, right, that's twice as smart as Einstein. We're now getting into that zone of not being able to comprehend what they're thinking about, not let alone understanding it. We, we, we wouldn't understand what it is that they're thinking about, let alone understand, you know, what's within it when they explain it to us.
So that, as you explain that, and I think the listener will be blown, their minds will be absolutely blown when you, what you just said. But for me, that's a bit, there's a bit of a shiver or a shudder. It's a bit scary to think that they're going to be talking and creating and comprehending things that we will never even understand. It's a foreign language, foreign concept. There's danger in that.
There is. There is danger and there is a utopia possibly hidden within it, right?
